Given Theresa May has just suffered the biggest Commons thumping in history – a majority of 232 against her Brexit deal – it might appear obvious that MPs lack confidence in her.
However, for Jeremy Corbyn to have any chance of the general election he craves, the Commons must deliver that verdict on a specific motion, in a vote on Wednesday night.
It is the first time the procedure has been used under the terms of the 2011 Fixed Term Parliaments Act – without which the prime minister would almost certainly have resigned already.
1 On what will MPs vote?
A motion reading: “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government” – Mr Corbyn will speak first, after which the prime minister will respond, ahead of a vote at 7pm.
2 Hasn’t Ms May faced a no-confidence vote already?
That was only a vote of her own MPs, last month – which she survived, damaged but unbowed, by a margin of 200 to 117.
3 What happens if she loses tonight?
It triggers a scramble to see if an alternative government can be formed, which can command the confidence of the Commons, which must be achieved within 14 days.
4 Would the prime minister have to resign immediately?
Technically no – she could attempt to lead a different government herself – but, in reality, she would almost certainly have to quit. The Conservatives could try to win a confidence vote under a new leader, or Mr Corbyn could try to head a coalition of opposition parties.
5 Would there be a general election, if Ms May loses tonight?
Only if an alternative government cannot be formed within two weeks, but it would become significantly more likely.
6 Will the prime minister win the vote?
Almost certainly – after both the Democratic Unionist Party and the rabidly anti-EU European Research Group of Tory MPs said they would back her.
7 What is the impact on the Brexit process?
It makes no difference – assuming the government wins – other than to delay Ms May’s promise to talk to other parties to try to rescue her deal by 24 hours.
8 Will there be more no-confidence votes?
That’s highly likely, after Mr Corbyn’s spokesman said “it will go on being the case that the best outcome is a general election” – a tactic to avoid ever backing a Final Say referendum, his critics say.
The Independent has launched its #FinalSay campaign to demand that voters are given a voice on the final Brexit deal.
Sign our petition here
