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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Jacob Rees-Mogg urges 'patience' over no-confidence vote in May - Politics live

Afternoon summary

  • Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, has urged the opposition parties at Westminster to unite to come up with an alternative to Theresa May’s Brexit plan.

But after his meeting with Sturgeon, the Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable said his priority was getting support for a second referendum. He said:

I made it explicitly clear to the SNP and others that the priority must be stepping up efforts to build the momentum for a People’s Vote. That has been the priority for the Liberal Democrats for over two years, and it remains so.

I am glad the other opposition parties were today able to agree to work together to achieve a people’s vote, including the option to remain in the EU.

Meanwhile, Labour is missing in action. They claim to want a general election before a people’s vote, but are making no moves to get one.

Jeremy Corbyn cannot continue to court both sides of this debate - it is time to decide.

  • Spain’s foreign minister has said he expects the UK to “split apart” before his own country does. As the Press Association reports, Josep Borrell’s remarks came as tensions rose between London and Madrid over references to Gibraltar in the Brexit “divorce deal” document. Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, has said he will vote against the Brexit withdrawal agreement at a special EU summit on Sunday unless Gibraltar’s future is considered a bilateral issue between London and Madrid rather than between the EU and UK. Borrell told Politico:

I am very much [more] worried about the unity of the United Kingdom than the unity of the Kingdom of Spain. I think the United Kingdom will split apart before the Kingdom of Spain.

  • The government has accepted an amendment to the finance bill tabled by the SNP calling for a review of the public health effect of gambling. This is from the SNP’s deputy leader at Westminster, Kirsty Blackman.
  • A Welsh Labour politician has been suspended after she was recorded questioning whether antisemitic hate crime was “real”. In 2017 Jenny Rathbone AM suggested increasing threats to Jewish worshippers at a synagogue in Cardiff could be “all in their own heads”. As the Press Association reports, she has been suspended from Labour’s assembly group pending a decision from the UK Labour party about possible disciplinary action. Rathbone said she was “deeply sorry” after her remarks were published online by the Jewish Chronicle.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

Jeremy Corbyn did not vote in the division last night where the DUP voted with Labour, and the government won by just five votes. (See 9.26am.) As my colleague Heather Stewart reports, some Labour sources are saying that his absence was not agreed.

My colleague Jessica Elgot says the word is he was at home.

Corbyn is not the only party leader to face embarrassment for missing a close vote. The same thing happened to the Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable earlier this year.

David Henig, a trade expert and former civil servant who is now director of the UK Trade Policy Project, has written a Twitter thread assessing the ERG report on customs policy published earlier today. He is not particularly impressed.

DUP's opposition to Brexit deal fails to win backing of businesses and farmers in Northern Ireland

At the 2017 general election the nationalist SDLP and the Ulster Unionists both lost the few seats they had in parliament, leaving all the seats in the hands of the DUP and Sinn Fein, apart from one independent. But Sinn Fein don’t take their seven seats, and as a result almost all the parliamentarians you see at Westminster speaking on behalf of Northern Ireland are from the DUP. The fact that the Northern Ireland assembly has been suspended for almost two years does not help either. It is easy to come away with the impression that the DUP are the unanimous political voice of Northern Ireland.

But they’re not. As this story in today’s Belfast News Letter points out, the DUP are at odds with business groups in Northern Ireland and with the influential Ulster Farmers’ Union, who are more supportive of Theresa May’s deal. (They are terrified of a no deal Brexit.) As the News Letter reports, Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s Brexit spokesman, has hit back, denouncing the business groups and the UFU as “puppets of the [Northern Ireland] Office”.

Here is Aodhan Connolly, director of the Northern Ireland Retail Consortium, on the story.


Read more at: https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/brexit-sammy-wilson-says-ufu-and-business-leaders-are-puppets-of-ni-office-1-8711528

My colleague Peter Walker is just back from the Downing Street afternoon lobby briefing.

Doctor MPs will table 'informed consent' amendment to Brexit motion demanding second referendum, Wollaston says

On the World at One Sarah Wollaston, the Conservative chair of the Commons health committee and a former GP, said that she and doctors in the Commons would be tabling an “informed consent” amendment to the government motion approving the Brexit deal. She said this would make Brexit conditional on the public approving it in a second referendum.

She explained:

I don’t think we have informed consent from the public to this particular version of Brexit. I’m going to be bringing forward an amendment that actually asks the public what they think of this version of Brexit. ‘Is this the Brexit that you had in mind when you voted over two years ago?’

Wollaston said that, under her plan, the referendum would involve a choice between May’s Brexit deal and staying in the EU.

She has given more details about her plan in an article for the BMJ, jointly written with the Labour MP and former GP Paul Williams. They say:

It is not acceptable for MPs to sit on the sidelines claiming that the people have already delivered their verdict. Without informed consent there is no valid consent.

The best way to give legal weight for a referendum on the final deal would be through amending the approval motion to make this conditional on a referendum. If the motion is approved without amendment, there are no binding mechanisms to introduce a “people’s vote” at a later stage. It is highly risky to rely on collapsing the government or forcing a No Deal Brexit as preconditions for supporting a referendum. The reality of the Parliamentary arithmetic is that there can be no referendum unless Labour supports one. Most Labour members do, but unequivocal front bench support for the “informed consent” amendment will be needed for it to pass.

With less than 140 days to go until we could chaotically crash out of the EU without a deal, it is time for all MPs to take responsibility for avoiding the consequences.

My colleague Dan Sabbagh has more on Wollaston’s plan here.

Sarah Wollaston speaking at People’s Vote rally last month.
Sarah Wollaston speaking at People’s Vote rally last month. Photograph: Michael Bowles/REX/Shutterstock

Updated

The DUP is expected to abstain again on votes on the finance bill, instead of supporting the government as it is supposed to on budget measures under the confidence and supply agreement, the BBC’s Emma Vardy reports.

Yesterday the House of Commons library put out a briefing paper on the extra £1bn going to Northern Ireland as a result of the confidence and supply agreement between the Tories and the DUP, the same deal that is now looking distinctly threadbare in the light of the DUP’s decision not to vote with the government on the finance bill last night. (See 9.26am.) The £1bn is due to be spent over five years and, according to the report, more than half of the cash (£570m) has yet to be spent.

These, from the Spectator’s James Forsyth, are interesting.

Sturgeon and other opposition leaders confirm they will resist no deal Brexit

Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP leader and Scottish first minister, has now held meetings at Westminster with Jeremy Corbyn, the Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable, the Green MP Caroline Lucas and the Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price.

After the meetings a spokesperson for Sturgeon said:

These discussions were worthwhile and it is clear that we are united in our opposition to the prime minister’s Brexit deal, which puts jobs and living standards at risk. We agreed that we will not be boxed into supporting no deal.

The SNP has consistently said we will work with other parties to prevent a damaging Brexit - and we will continue to do so.

Commenting on the meeting with Corbyn, a Labour spokesperson said:

Jeremy Corbyn had a constructive meeting with Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon. They discussed their common opposition to Theresa May’s botched Brexit deal and determination to work across parliament to prevent a disastrous no deal outcome.

And, after the Plaid meeting, Price said:

Plaid Cymru and the SNP have been consistent and clear, the least damaging exit from the EU means staying in the single market and customs union. We will continue to work together to make sure the voices of Welsh and Scottish people are heard in Westminster.

We simply cannot sit back and let our respective nations face the harm the Westminster government is intent on causing by ripping us out of these economic pillars of Europe.

The Westminster government is shedding cabinet ministers and refusing to change course.

To paraphrase the prime minister, we have three options left – bad deal, no deal or no Brexit. It is only Labour that seem intent that the last option should not be perused.

The Labour leadership must now come to its senses and work with Plaid Cymru and the SNP to find a way out of this Brexit madness.

Sturgeon is meeting Theresa May later.

If you want some relief from Brexit - and who doesn’t? - this story, from my colleague Rajeev Syal, is lovely, and well worth reading.

Lunchtime summary

  • Tory Brexiters have published a report claiming that a no deal departure from the EU would not result in a damaging increase in trade friction. As the Press Association reports, the document (pdf), produced by Global Britain and the European Research Group, described fears of serious obstacles to trade outside the single market and customs union as “myths”. Dismissing suggestions that Brexit would see lorry drivers queuing at Dover and other ports to have their loads and paperwork checked, the report said “virtually all” checks in a modern system are made electronically, remote from ports, and most consignments are cleared “within seconds of arrival”.
  • Ministers were told at today’s cabinet that “technological solutions” relating to border checks could prevent the need for the Irish backstop plan in the withdrawal agreement coming into effect. A story in today’s Sun presents this as a new development, but in fact it was always the government’s argument that the backstop would never be needed - because new customs high-tech customs procedures would make borders as frictionless as possible (meaning no hard border in Northern Ireland, and hence no need for the backstop). But what does seem to be happening is that May could be ditching her preferred customs solution. At one point the government was considering two, rival options: a “new customs partnership” as the solution (the UK collecting tariffs on behalf of the EU) and “maximum facilitation”, or “max fac” (new, high-tech procedures.) In the government’s white paper, published in July, the plan became one for a “facilitated customs arrangement”, a hybrid, but more “custom partnership” than “max fac”. On the basis of what journalists were told at the lobby briefing, “max fac” seems back in play. This will please Tory Brexiters, some of whom were pushing for this at a meeting with Theresa May in Downing Street yesterday. These are from the Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner, who was at the lobby briefing.

It is worth reminding readers that HMRC said earlier this year that “max fac” could cost British business up to £20bn a year.

We have emphasised from the start the importance of having some transition between the current arrangements and the ultimate arrangements.

So we welcome the transition arrangements in the withdrawal agreement ... and take note of the possibility of extending that transition period.

  • The UK will not support a Russian candidate for the Interpol presidency, Foreign Office minister Harriet Baldwin has told MPs. She said Alexander Prokopchuk, currently an Interpol vice chair, was head of the Russian Central Bureau and the UK would not support his candidacy.

Updated

According to the BBC’s Europe editor, Katya Adler, Theresa May is not going to have much chance to alter the text of what the EU agrees on the framework for the future relationship later this week. A seven-page outline (pdf) has already been published, but a longer version is being drafted, to go alongside the text of the withdrawal agreement that is now regarded as finalised.

Rees-Mogg says, if Tory MPs want to stop May fighting next general election, they must vote her out soon

Here are some more quotes from Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the European Research Group, which represents Tory MP pushing for a harder Brexit. He was speaking to journalists after the ERG briefing earlier.

  • Rees-Mogg said that, if Tory MPs wanted to stop Theresa May leading the party into the next general election, they should vote her out soon. Asked if it would be difficult to get the 158 votes needed to defeat May in a confidence vote, assuming one were to go ahead, he replied:

I would wait and see about that. You speak to Tory MPs and find Tory MPs who say they are really keen that Theresa May should lead us into the next general election?

Basically, if there is a vote of confidence it is not just for a year. Getting the 48 letters has shown to be quite difficult, so the idea that in a year you just repeat the process and then she would go at that point I don’t think that is realistic.

I think it is now or the prime minister will lead the Conservatives into the next election.

You find MPs privately who will say to you they think that is a really good idea in any number and I would be quite surprised.

This is interesting, because it is a new argument from Rees-Mogg as to why MPs should support him in voting against May. He is widening the issue beyond Brexit, which could be seen as recognition that she won’t be defeated in a confidence vote purely on Brexit grounds.

  • He rejected claims that his failure to get 47 other Tory MPs to submit letters demanding a no confidence vote by now (48 letters are needed for a vote to go ahead) was a humiliation. When this was put to him, he said:

I have suggested something and not everybody has wanted to do it. That’s political life.

  • He said he felt an obligation to reveal publicly that he was calling for a no confidence vote. MPs don’t have to say if they have submitted a letter to the chair of the 1922 Committee. But Rees-Mogg said:

I felt I ought to go public because I have previously been so supportive of the prime minister. When I came to the conclusion that you couldn’t separate the person and the policy, I felt I had no choice but to write my own letter of no confidence.

  • He said he thought some MPs would delay submitting letters requesting a no confidence vote in May until after the “meaningful vote” on the Brexit deal. He said:

The government has put forward its proposal. It will have to bring it to a vote. There are many people who expect to oppose the deal in the vote and they think that is the time to write letters, not now, and that is a perfectly reasonable thing to do.

Jacob Rees-Mogg speaking to journalists after the ERG briefing.
Jacob Rees-Mogg speaking to journalists after the ERG briefing. Photograph: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

Updated

The UK government has been refused permission for an appeal at the country’s highest court over a cross-party legal challenge on Brexit, the Press Association reports. The supreme court rejected an application to appeal against a ruling to ask the European court if the UK can unilaterally revoke its article 50 request to leave the European Union. The Press Association story goes on:

The court of session in Edinburgh ruled in September to refer the question to the court of justice of the EU (CJEU) after a case brought by a cross-party group of politicians.

The CJEU applied its expedited procedure, as requested by the court of session, to the case and an oral hearing is fixed for November 27.

The UK government made an application for permission to appeal against the ruling to the supreme court, which was refused by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge and lord president of the court of session in Edinburgh, earlier this month.

The secretary of state for exiting the European Union then applied directly to the supreme court for permission to appeal.

But, refusing permission on Tuesday, the court said the court of session’s ruling was “preliminary” and it would still have to reach a judgment on the matter after the European court has given guidance.

A statement issued by the supreme court said: “It is clear that this interlocutor did not constitute a final judgment.”

It continued: “As both this court and the CJEU have made clear, the preliminary ruling is merely a step in the proceedings pending before the national court - it is that court which must assume responsibility for the subsequent judicial decision.

“It will therefore remain for the court of session to give judgment in the light of the preliminary ruling, any relevant facts which it may find and any relevant rules of domestic law. It is only then that there will be a final judgment in the proceedings.”

Here is a link to the ERG paper published earlier.

While we’re on the subject of the Irish backstop, this is what Theresa May says about it in her article today for the Belfast Telegraph. She says:

Finally, there has been a lot of focus on the so-called backstop to this agreement that ensures that there can never be a return to the borders of the past in the event that we have not entered into our future relationship by 2021. Although it is important to restate that both sides agree that we never want to use it, and will both be legally bound to use our best endeavours to reach agreement on the future in good time, I understand and share some of the concerns that have been expressed.

I believe the following three points make this an acceptable insurance policy: first, there is the opportunity to extend the Implementation Period instead of entering the backstop; second, the Government will keep regulations consistent across the whole of the UK in order to minimise any checks or controls and ensure no divergence between Northern Ireland and Great Britain; and third, this is expressly temporary, with a mechanism by which it can be terminated. And of course, in this situation, Northern Ireland would benefit from frictionless access to both the EU and the rest of the UK markets.

The Conservative MP Damian Collins voted remain in the EU referendum. But in a blog for his website, he has said he will not vote for Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement. He explains:

There are many concerns about the prime minister’s draft agreement that could be raised, but for me there is a fundamental issue that needs to be resolved before I could support it. The draft agreement proposes that there should be a transition period after we leave the EU on 29th March next year, lasting until 31st December 2020, where we remain in the single market and customs union. This transition can be extended if both sides agree, and failing that we would fall into a backstop arrangement until a future trade agreement is reached. During this period the UK would be part of a single customs territory with the EU, requiring us to remain aligned to their rules. Furthermore it is proposed that we would not be able to leave the backstop independently, and I believe this is totally unacceptable. This arrangement would also require different rules to operate in Northern Ireland to the rest of the UK, something that we had said we would not accept.

Updated

Theresa May is to travel to Brussels on Wednesday evening to finalise the Brexit deal in a meeting with the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, Downing Street has said. Our full story is here.

Steve Baker, the ERG deputy chairman, has also been giving interviews. He says it is “very difficult” to see how there won’t be 48 Tory MPs demanding a no confidence vote in Theresa May if she loses the “meaningful vote”. But he does not know if the 48 letters will go in beforehand, he says.

Updated

Rees-Mogg says May has made 'deliberate decision not to deliver proper Brexit'

Here are the key quotes from Jacob Rees-Mogg on the Tory leadership. Asked why the necessary 48 letters to force a confidence vote had not materialised, he said:

Patience is a virtue, virtue is a grace. We will see what letters come in due time.

Do 47 want to come with me or not? I may find that they don’t or they don’t do it today but when we get the meaningful vote. That’s a decision for them.

He also said the government was determined not to deliver a meaningful Brexit.

What we are seeing from this government is a deliberate decision not to deliver a proper Brexit. We have a government led by remainers who want to keep us tied into the EU as tightly as possible.

Jacob Rees-Mogg is now conducting a TV interview, with a huddle of around 20 journalists surrounding him.

I can’t get close enough to hear what is being said, but a colleague is embedded in the scrum, so I’ll find out soon enough.

I’m heading back to the office. I will post again in about 10 minutes.

Q: [To Rees-Mogg] Yesterday it looked like the night of the long knives. Do you accept it now looks like the morning of blunt sticks.

Rees-Mogg says, like Theresa May, he is opposed to the use of language like that. He says talk of the night of the long knives is particularly inappropriate coming from German TV.

And that’s it. The press conference is over.

Q: Yesterday the Northern Ireland secretary (Karen Bradley) said if the UK leaves the EU with no deal, there would have to be border checks in Ireland under WTO rules. Is she wrong?

Peter Lilley says he has repeatedly asked the Treasury to show him where WTO rules specify that. The Treasury has not responded. He says, under the WTO rules, different ports can operate different procedures. He says the questioner should ask Karen Bradley to show him WTO text backing up her claims.

Q: [To Davis] Do you think May used you as a fig leaf when she appointed you Brexit secretary.

No, says Davis simply.

Q: [To Rees-Mogg] Has this diminished your authority?

Rees-Mogg says he has already said he will not take any more questions on that issue now.

From the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope.

Q: [To Rees-Mogg] What would it take for you to withdraw your letter?

Q: [To Davis] What will it take for you to put in a letter?

Rees-Mogg says those questions have nothing to do with the report. But he says, from what May said yesterday, it is clear that May won’t change her mind.

He says he will answer questions about the leadership issue later.

Peter Lilley says the UK and the EU don’t have, and don’t want, tariffs after Brexit. So negotiating a deal on that should “take 10 minutes”.

And regulations are the same too, he says. So negotiating a deal on that should be easy too.

Nicholas Watt from BBC’s Newsnight asks if there is a “Dad’s Army” feel to all this.

Rees-Mogg replies:

I’ve always admired Captain Mainwaring.

Q: Isn’t this late in the day?

David Davis does not accept that. He says this report knocks down the arguments used to dismiss “max fac”, the customs plan at one stage favoured by Brexiters.

Jacob Rees-Mogg says he has always admired Captain Mainwaring, the Dad’s Army character.
Jacob Rees-Mogg says he has always admired Captain Mainwaring, the Dad’s Army character.
 Photograph: Royal Mail/PA

Updated

Rees-Mogg says “coup” is “entirely the wrong word” to describe the attempt to remove Theresa May. It is also “rather silly”, he says.

He says he and colleagues are using a legitimate mechanism to get rid of May.

He says he may find if 47 Tory MPs follow him. Or he may find that they have to wait until the meaningful vote happens.

Rees-Mogg urges those waiting for 48 Tories to back no confidence vote in May to show 'patience'

Jacob Rees-Mogg now opens the floor up to questions.

The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg goes first. Isn’t it true that you have won the argument for Brexit, but not for how to leave the EU? And if you cannot get another 47 people to calling for a no confidence vote in Theresa May, why should people trust you to be able to deliver Brexit.

Rees-Mogg says the ERG does not have a collective view on May’s future.

He says the problem is that the government is now led by remainers.

Going back to the letters, he says:

Patience is a virtue, virtue is a grace etc, and we will see what letters come in due time.

He suggests, after the meaningful vote, the situation may be different.

  • Rees-Mogg urges those waiting for 48 Tories to back no confidence vote in May to show “patience”.

Updated

David Davis is speaking now.

He says a week ago he was a former Brexit secretary. Now is is a former, former Brexit secretary.

He says he feels a bit intimidated by the expertise on the panel. He does not have their specialist knowledge, although when he was in business he traded across borders, he says.

He says the paper has Peter Lilley’s characteristic simplicity and focus.

Since the Uruguay round of trade talks came into effect, the UK has been less successful than other countries at expanding international trade.

He says, even in just-in-time manufacturing, the difficulties posed by customs checks are not as serious as people claim. There are firms in the UK importing parts from out side the EU.

So the difficulties that would be posed to the UK by leaving the customs union have been “massively exaggerated”, he says.

Customs checks have become much faster and simpler in recent years. That is not surprising. In ever other areas, technology has improved, he says.

Here is an extract from the ERG news release

FEAR 1: “Customs paperwork” will have to be “checked at the border” after Brexit, causing delays at ports, queues, congestion on motorways and disruption to supply chains.

Fact – NOT Friction:

“All customs declarations are made electronically ahead of arrival at a port; most consignments are cleared within seconds of arrival; a tiny percentage are physically checked as a result of risk assessment by HMRC computers or intelligence information; and such checks may be carried out away from the border at importer’s premises or warehouses ... most checks relate to dutiable goods, drugs or illegal immigrants and are made on the basis of risk or intelligence information. HMRC do not expect any of these risks to increase or new risks to emerge as a result of Brexit” and HMRC “will prioritise flow over compliance”.

Deliberate delays [at Calais] would breach three treaty commitments (the original WTO treaty, the Trade Facilitation Agreement and the Lisbon Treaty requiring the EU to behave in a neighbourly fashion towards adjacent states). Of course, legal redress would take time but ports in Belgium and Holland are eager to take trade away from Calais.”

Hans Maessen, a Dutch customs specialist, is speaking now. He says he is surprised that customs issues were not discussed during the referendum. There are systems available now that can be used to simplify checks at the border, he says.

The withdrawal agreement talks about the need for “wet stamps” as part of border checks, he says. He says he has not seen those in use since 1992.

Updated

Sir David Ord, head of Bristol Port, is speaking now. He says the port sector believe they have made trade as frictionless as possible. Should the UK leave the EU in March without a deal, they would be able to manage, he says.

Lilley is still speaking. He says that when he was trade secretary (from 1990 to 1992) he encouraged firms in the UK to use just-in-time supply chains. Referring to claims that these will be disrupted if the UK leaves the customs unions, he says he is not aware of any evidence of that happening during the various hold-ups at Calais that led to the UK implementing Operation Stack.

Peter Lilley is speaking now. Here is a quote from him about the paper sent out in advance.

The proposed EU agreement is the result of defeatist negotiating stemming from a complete lack of understanding about how international trade actually works.

Fact - NOT Friction aims to broaden our understanding of existing customs procedures and to outline the reality of how the United Kingdom operating with a free trade deal or under World Trade Organisation rules will prosper outside the customs union.

We should reject Theresa May’s constitutional monstrosity of a proposal and revive Tusk’s offer of a Canada-style free trade deal extended to the whole UK. This may become easier to negotiate once we have left and begun trading on World Trade Organisation terms with the EU as we do with non-EU countries after we leave the EU.

I spent ten days incarcerated in the Heysel Stadium negotiating the Uruguay Round, which set up the WTO. Its rules provide the safety net our businesses and consumers need in exactly this sort of situation. It will ensure that the EU will have to trade with the UK on exactly the same terms as it offers its other major trading partners.

This is from the FT’s Laura Hughes.

The BBC’s Norman Smith seems to have had a word with Jacob Rees-Mogg on the way in.

Here is the full line-up of speakers.

Lord Lilley, trade and industry secretary under Thatcher and Major

Jacob Rees-Mogg MP

David Davis MP, former Brexit secretary

Sir David Ord, managing director of Bristol Port

John Mills, co-founder of Labour Leave and CEO of JLM who import and export to 85 countries

Hans Maessen, Dutch customs and logistics expert

Simon Boyd, managing director of Reid Steel

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the ERG chair, has just taken his seat on the podium. The last time Rees-Mogg was speaking at a press conference it was to announce that he was writing a letter calling for a vote of no confidence in May.

European Research Group press conference

I’m at the Emmanuel Centre in Westminster, a few minutes away from the Commons, where the European Research Group briefing is about to begin. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the ERG chair, who has been orchestrating what seems, at this point, an unsuccessful attempt to trigger a no confidence vote in Theresa May is meant to be speaking, but I can’t see him here.

The briefing is to mark the publication of a paper by the ERG and Global Britian called “Fact – NOT Friction: Exploding the myths of leaving the Customs Union.”

There is a big media turn-out. Doubtless everyone is fascinated by the inner workings of the customs union, but one suspects there might be just a few questions about the attempt to topple May too.

UPDATE: I’ve corrected this. The original post said Steve Baker, when it should have said Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Updated

A new survey has shown 60% of people in Scotland would vote to remain in the UK in a referendum, the Press Association reports. The Survation poll on behalf of a pro-union group asked a different question from that put to voters in the 2014 independence referendum. Instead of asking if the country should be independent, it asked whether they would like to remain as part of the UK. Results also show 28% of yes voters in 2014 would back remain, while 15% of former no voters would choose to leave.

Pamela Nash, chief executive of Scotland in Union, said:

This bombshell poll shows that a huge majority of Scots want to remain in the UK and are turned off by Nicola Sturgeon’s desperate attempts to use Brexit to break up Britain.

Voters know that we are better off as part of the UK and it makes sense to remain with our oldest friends, neighbours and allies - rather than divide us in the name of nationalism.

I’m off to the ERG briefing now. I will post from there at around 10am.

Sturgeon visiting London for talks with opposition leaders about alternatives to May's Brexit plan

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, is travelling to London this morning for a series of meeting at Westminster where she will attempt to act as deal-maker for a cross-party alternative plan to Theresa May’s Brexit.

Speaking to BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland, the Scottish government’s Brexit secretary Michael Russell set out Sturgeon’s plans. He said:

What the first minister will do today is meet opposition leaders and Theresa May, and point out that there is a process to vote down this deal. She is not attempting to renegotiate May’s deal - that deal is dead - but this is a discussion about the alternatives.

Sturgeon is expected to meet Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, Lib Dem leader Vince Cable, the Green’s Caroline Lucas as well as representatives of Plaid Cymru and others.

Accusing May of offering the country a “false choice” over Brexit, Sturgeon said in advance of the trip:

This is a time for grown-up, responsible governance in the public interest – something which has been sadly lacking to date as the Tory party has continued to put its own interests ahead of the interests of jobs, communities and businesses.

It mustn’t be an option between frying pan or fire – but it is now incumbent on all of us who oppose that false choice to propose a workable alternative.

Speaking to the BBC, Russell was very clear that the Scottish government did not want to amend the current deal but start a completely new process and that, while their preferred option was remaining within the single market and customs unions, this was up for discussion. Ian Blackford, the SNP’s Westminster leader, has already raised the prospect pausing article 50 to allow more time for negotiations.

Nicola Sturgeon
Nicola Sturgeon Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

DUP defends not backing May on finance bill, saying 'consequences were inevitable'

Last night, just as it was starting to look as if the European Research Group bid to trigger a confidence vote in Theresa May has failed, at least for now, she suffered a fresh blow to her authority, with the DUP, her supposed confidence and supply partners, failing to vote with the government in votes on the finance bill. They abstained on some votes and even voted with Labour on one, an amendment saying the government should publish an assessment of the budget on child poverty. The Tories only managed to defeat that by five votes.

Here is our story about the DUP’s finance bill warning to May.

This morning Sammy Wilson, the DUP’s Brexit spokesman, told Good Morning Ulster that his party was sending a message to the prime minister.

The agreement itself leaves Northern Ireland in a position where forever it would be subject to the EU making rules about our economy, which we would have no say over, no ability to amend, even if they were damaging to our economy and would put a border down the Irish Sea separating us from the GB market, which is our biggest market ...

Of course [May] is not going to say that she broke her promises to the people of Northern Ireland, or indeed she broke her manifesto promises to the people of the United Kingdom as a whole, which she has done, and which is the reasons she has got such turmoil in her own party.

It was in that light that we decided last night we would have to send a message to the prime minister that, ‘Prime minister, you have broken your promises to us, we had an agreement with you, you have broken those promises, we do not feel obligated to deliver on all that we have promised to do for you.’ And that’s why we abstained.

He also said the DUP was hoping to get May to change her mind.

Our focus is to try and undo this damaging deal, a deal which is going to leave long-term implications for Northern Ireland, constitutionally and economically. And therefore we want to continue to work with the current government to see if the deal can be changed.

Good luck with that, as they say. May has said she will not re-open talks on the withdrawal agreement, and today she has an article in the Belfast Telegraph saying it “puts Northern Ireland in a fantastic position for the future”.

On Twitter Wilson sums up the DUP’s message in slightly terser and more menacing terms.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Theresa May chairs cabinet.

10am: Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, gives evidence to the Commons Treasury committee.

10am: David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, and Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the European Research Group, are among the speakers at an ERG press conference to mark the publication of a paper about the benefits of leaving the customs union.

12pm: Downing Street lobby briefing.

12pm: David Gauke, the justice secretary, gives a speech to the Social Market Foundation.

3pm: Alistair Burt, the Foreign Office minister, gives evidence to the Northern Ireland committee about the victims of Libya-supplied semtex.

As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary at lunchtime and another when I finish, at 5pm.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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