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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

No deal Brexit would be 'unmitigated disaster' says Sturgeon as planning papers released - Politics live

Dominic Raab giving a speech in Westminster to mark the publication of Brexit no deal planning papers.
Dominic Raab giving a speech in Westminster to mark the publication of Brexit no deal planning papers. Photograph: Peter Nicholls/AP

Afternoon summary

  • Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, has published the first 24 no deal planning papers being prepared by the government telling businesses and organisations what they need to do to get ready for the possibility of a no deal Brexit. More than 50 more are due to be published in the next few weeks. In a speech, Raab stressed that this was just contingency planning and that the government remains confident that there will be a deal. The exercise is designed to reassure a British audience that the UK could cope in the event of a no deal Brexit, and to convince Brussels that Theresa May is willing to walk away if she is not offered a satisfactorily deal. But the documents may have highlighted the weakness of the government’s case because many organisations - for example, the Scottish government, the Welsh government, the CBI and the TUC (see 1.28pm and 1.39pm) - have said the papers just illustrate why a no deal Brexit would be unacceptable. Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, said leaving the EU without a deal would be an “unmitigated disaster”. (See 4.45pm.)
  • Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has said in a letter to the Commons Treasury committee that a no deal Brexit would lead to government borrowing being £80bn a year higher by the mid 2030s. In his letter (pdf) he said:

This January provisional analysis estimated that in a no deal/WTO scenario GDP would be 7.7% lower (range 5.0%-10.3%) relative to a status quo baseline. This represents the potential expected static state around 15 years out from the exit point. The analysis did not estimate the path the economy and different sectors might take under no deal and the potential for short-term disruption ....

The January analysis was supplemented with analysis of the potential sectoral, regional and fiscal consequences under these ‘precedent’ models. Under a no deal/WTO scenario chemicals, food and drink, clothing, manufacturing, cars, and retail were estimated to be the sectors most affected negatively in the long-run, with the largest negative impacts felt in the North East and Northern Ireland.

GDP impacts of this magnitude, were they to arise, would have large fiscal consequences. The January analysis estimated that borrowing would be around £80 billion a year higher under a no deal/WTO scenario by 2033-34, in the absence of mitigating adjustments to spending and/or taxation, relative to a status quo baseline. This is because any direct financial savings are outweighed by the indirect fiscal consequences of a smaller economy.

That’s all from me for today.

Politics Live will be back for good on Monday 3 September.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

Arron Banks, the former Ukip donor and Leave.EU founder, has claimed that he has joined the Conservative. He has been encouraging his supporters to join so they can vote for a Brexiter candidate in a future leadership contest.

Sturgeon says no deal Brexit would be 'unmitigated disaster'

Here is Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, on the no deal planning documents.

This is from the Lib Dem Brexit spokesman Tom Brake.

No one will be surprised that the Brexit secretary was hot and flustered today. What he set out means a disaster for British families and British jobs.

Brake is right to say that Dominic Raab did look as if he was feeling the heat when he delivered his speech.

Dominic Raab delivering his speech.
Dominic Raab delivering his speech. Photograph: Luke MacGregor / POOL/EPA

Businesses have given a cautious welcome to the government’s Brexit notices but believe more details are still needed.

The British Chambers of Commerce director general Dr Adam Marshall, said:

Ministers say they will take unilateral steps to keep trade moving freely but must demonstrate what they will concretely do to limit the impact of delays, inspections and red tape.

It is unfortunate that businesses face several weeks wait for further information and clarification. Every additional delay means less time for businesses to prepare ahead of the UK’s fast-approaching exit from the EU.

On specific issues, the BCC is pleased the government has acted to avoid businesses having to pay VAT immediately on each cross-border transaction, which would have caused cash flow issues.

But Marshall questioned plans to impose full blown customs controls on trade between the UK and EU immediately. He said:

Given well-publicised concerns surrounding the capacity and readiness of UK customs systems, we question whether this outcome is realistic. Even though there is some welcome practical advice in the government’s technical notes on trading with the EU in these circumstances, we need to know much more.

And he said there were some alarm bells for business in terms of the higher costs of euro transactions, and there needed to be more clarity about the Irish border issue.

Stephen Jones, chief executive of trade association UK Finance, said:

The government is taking a pragmatic approach to addressing critical cliff-edge issues and to ensure consumers and businesses can continue accessing vital cross-border services.

However, these issues cannot be addressed by the UK acting alone. It is therefore vital that negotiators on both sides work together to agree solutions that prevent any unnecessary disruption and additional costs for customers in both the EU and UK.

Stephen Phipson, chief executive of EEF, the manufacturers’ organisation, said:

EEF welcomes the increased clarity for businesses from the publication of today’s raft of technical notices. However the remaining notices need to be published at the utmost speed so companies have the full picture to enable them to prepare properly for a no-deal scenario.

We also welcome the commitment to create UK replacements for the regulatory bodies we will leave next March if we fail to reach a deal with the EU. However, we would like government to make firm commitments to ensure these bodies can swiftly recruit the skilled people they need to deliver a seamless regulatory environment in the event of a no deal exit.

And this is from the MP and outgoing Green party co-leader Caroline Lucas. Referring to, among other documents, the one covering organic food (pdf), she said:

Finally the government has unveiled the costly reality of a no deal Brexit.

With organic farmers and food companies prevented from exporting to our neighbours, our most sustainable food producers face a serious threat.

The government will suddenly have to find £3bn a year to replace EU subsidies that keep farmers in business – but they’ve only promised this support until 2022. That’s a perilous future to offer those working to put food on our tables.

Everyone will face higher credit card costs and price hikes on EU goods. And we still have no idea what will happen at the Irish border.

None of these costs appeared on Brexit buses back in 2016. No one voted for a nightmare scenario where the best we can hope for is a BLT and the army not distributing food.

The People’s Vote, the anti-Brexit group campaigning for a second referendum, has released its analysis of the no deal planning paper. It is a relatively long paper, and not available yet on the group’s website. Here is the summary (their bold type, not mine.)

The government’s assessments of the impact of a ‘no deal’ Brexit on the UK, published today, show that ministers’ inability to deliver a workable or beneficial Brexit deal means we are now at risk of a no deal Brexit. Some of the many wide-ranging consequences have today been laid bare:

There would be an unprecedented sudden increase in red tape for Britain’s trading businesses. Importers and exporters would face new costs through punitive tariffs, new administrative burdens, and new reporting duties. This will result in huge hikes in costs, which may be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. The new burdens are likely to hit small and medium sized businesses disproportionately.

The financial services industry, a cornerstone of the UK economy, would be extremely badly hit. Financial services would be unable to provide services on equal terms across Europe, and may have to open new offices in the EU after Brexit - a fundamental disruption of operations.

UK workers would lose the right to claim compensation when companies go bust. Despite the government’s promise that worker’s rights will be unaffected by Brexit, the impact assessments show UK employees of EU companies may lose their right to compensation in case of insolvency.

The pharmaceutical industry would face an absurd scenario of having to register medicines twice. All new medicines would have to be double licensed – once in the UK and once in Europe. For pharmaceutical firms, this entails a huge amount of extra red tape and there is the danger that for some, it will not be worth the hassle to enter the much smaller UK market.

Future generations would lose opportunities to study abroad, and universities would lose access to billions in research funding. The UK, under ‘no deal’ would drop out of the Erasmus programme, which provides our young people with the opportunity to live, study, and work abroad. And our proud universities would lose access to billions in EU funding which supports cutting-edge research in institutions across Britain.

And the government’s impact assessments provide absolutely no reassurance about how to resolve issues between the UK and Ireland in the event of ‘no deal’. Businesses and individuals would be asked to contact the Irish Government, rather than given the guarantees that communities on both sides of the border have been waiting for.

It is also clear that the impact assessments do not truly plan for ‘no deal’. The government’s plans rely on goodwill from EU countries and special agreements, to avoid the cataclysmic impact that a cliff-edge Brexit would have on our country.

The National Farmers Union in Scotland has condemned planning for a no-deal Brexit, claiming that would be “hugely destabilising” and see the UK adopt World Trade Organisation rules by default.

In an unusually strongly-worded statement, Andrew McCornick, president of the NFUS, said:

Today’s announcement has not told farmers or crofters anything new and has only left us with the same questions as we had before.

The government need to start giving details of what life is going to be like on the other side of Brexit. We realise that governments cannot make commitments beyond their lifetime, [but] without confidence about the future of farm payments beyond 2022, Scottish farm and croft businesses have no clear steer on how they should prepare beyond this time – particularly if, in the wake of a ‘no deal’ Brexit, trade flows are significantly disrupted.

Although time is running out for negotiations to produce the best possible outcome, it is the union’s opinion that the Chequers agreement, which would uphold the principles of free and unfettered trade in agri-foods between the UK and EU, is far better than a ‘no-deal Brexit’ which would be hugely destabilising for the farming industry.

A ‘no deal’ Brexit would mean the UK becoming a third country overnight, bringing in hard borders and the WTO default being imposed. That runs completely contrary to our desire for trade to be as friction free as possible.

Summary of key points from Brexit no deal planning papers

My colleague Lisa O’Carroll has written a summary of some of the main points from the no deal planning papers.

And the Press Association has also written a key points summary. Here it is.

The removal of an EU ban on credit and debit card surcharges is “likely” to increase the cost of shopping.

UK citizens living in Europe face the possibility of losing access to their pension income and other financial services.

Consumers would face another potential cost increase when online shopping, with parcels arriving in the UK no longer liable for low value consignment relief (LVCR) on VAT.

Businesses exporting to Europe may have to “renegotiate commercial terms” to reflect customs and other tariff changes.

The firms may also need to pay out for new software or hire “a customs broker, freight forwarder or logistics provider” to help them deal with new requirements.

Companies exporting across the Irish border should “consider whether you will need advice from the Irish Government about preparations you need to make”.

Importing nuclear materials from the EU may require a licence.

Medicines and other medical products will have to go through “national assessment” before they receive market authorisation to be sold in the UK.

NHS patients may face delays accessing innovative treatments.

Cigarette packet health warnings would change as the current images used are copyrighted to the EU.

Organic food producers face a “cliff edge” of exporting to the EU only if certified by a body approved by the European commission, with certification taking up to nine months after Brexit.

The government is planning to recruit an extra 9,000 staff into the civil service to deal with Brexit, in addition to 7,000 currently working on preparations.

The government will pay for British aid organisation programmes whose funding could be ended in the event of no deal.

And John Redwood, the Conservative Brexiter, told the World at One that he was “very reassured” by the no deal papers. He said:

There are millions of us who think [a no deal Brexit] is a great idea, and one of the things that would be superb if we don’t go for the withdrawal agreement we have in mind is that that £39bn that is pencilled in to the withdrawal agreement, we could spend it and we could start spending it now.

Wouldn’t it be great, a fantastic boost for our economy, if we had more money on public services that are a priority and some tax cuts and we could increase the growth rate quite quickly?

Antoinette Sandbach, the pro-European Conservative MP, told the World at One that the planning papers showed how damaging a no deal Brexit would be and strengthened the case for the UK remaining in the EEA (European Economic Area) - aka, the Norway option. She said:

I think it demonstrates the need for a European Economic Area safety net rather than going for a no-deal option.

Here is the paper covering banking, insurance and financial services (pdf).

And here is some reaction to what it says about how expats could lose access to pensions and other financial services. (See 12.54pm.)

This is from Hugh Savill, director of regulation at the Association of British Insurers (ABI).

Leaving the EU without a deal would cause major inconvenience to millions of pensioners, travellers and drivers. We urge the Government to agree a deal as a matter of urgency.

Today’s paper emphasises the risk of insurers not being able to make payments to customers based in the EU after the end of March next year.

Obviously insurers want to meet their commitments to their customers, but this problem has the potential to affect millions of insurance customers, including UK pensioners overseas.

It can be fixed by co-operation between the UK and EU regulators - if the EU authorities wish to do so.

Insurers have of course been making contingency plans for their own operations for many months now, but this contract issue is not one that insurers themselves can fix.

And this is from Sir Steve Webb, the former Lib Dem pensions minister who is now director of policy at Royal London, the life insurance and pensions company.

These documents confirm what pensions and insurance companies have known for months - without co-operation between the UK and EU government post Brexit there is a risk that existing payments from UK companies to those living within the EU could be disrupted or even become impossible.

For that reason, firms including Royal London have been investing in finding ways to serve these customers, including using a subsidiary based inside the EU where appropriate.

Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, said this morning that all of the government’s no deal planning papers would be published by the end of September. The 24 subject-specific papers out today are here. If you want to know what else is coming, last week BuzzFeed published a list of all 80-odd topics being covered by a no deal planning document.

Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Commons Brexit committee, has said the planning papers released today show why a no deal Brexit is “unacceptable”. In a statement he said:

These papers tell us three things. First, they confirm that no deal, far from being better than a bad deal, would be very damaging economically. Businesses that export to the EU would face the cost and bureaucracy of customs, safety and security and rules of origin declarations for the first time, and in certain sectors, tariffs.

Secondly, there is no guarantee for British citizens living in other EU countries about the future of their pension payments.

Thirdly, there is still no clarity on how the return of a hard border in Northern Ireland will be avoided, and ministers have simply told businesses to seek advice from the Irish government. This is an extraordinary abdication of responsibility.

Having wasted two years, these papers show exactly why no deal is unacceptable and why ministers must now ensure that an agreement is reached with the EU which provides a transition period and protects jobs, trade and investment.

Hilary Benn
Hilary Benn Photograph: Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

Here is some comment on the no deal planning documents from two specialists.

Here is the start of a good thread from Simon Usherwood, deputy director of the UK in a Changing Europe programme

And this is from David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project.

I’m planning to wrap up the blog today between 5.30pm and 6pm. And comments will probably close by about 6.30pm.

(I mention this because, when I asked for feedback several weeks ago, some readers said they would like more warning as to when the blog, and comments, will close. I’ll try to provide that. But today is just a one-off. Regular blogging will start again on Monday 3 September.)

Here is some comment from journalists on the Dominic Raab speech.

From ITV’s Robert Peston

From Politico Europe’s Tom McTague

From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn

From MLex’s Matthew Holehouse

Holehouse is referring to this passage in the Raab speech. Raab said:

Take just one example of that, the suggestion that a no deal Brexit could spark a ‘sandwich famine’ in the UK, or that we’ve asked the army to deliver food supplies.

In reality, our food and drink supply is diverse.

In 2016, Defra food statistics show, the UK supplied half of the food we consumed. 30% did come from the EU, 20% from the rest of the world.

Who is credibly suggesting, in a no deal scenario, that the EU would not want to continue to sell food to UK consumers? ...

So let me reassure you all that, contrary to one of the wilder claims, you will still be able to enjoy a BLT after Brexit.

From the Irish Times’ Fintan O’Toole

Updated

Britons face multi-million pound hit through higher card payment charges under no deal Brexit, government says

Consumers and holidaymakers face a multi-million pound hit if there is a no-deal Brexit because of a “likely increase” in the cost of card payments between the UK and the EU, technical papers released by the government reveal. As the Press Association reports, cross-border payments would no longer be covered by a “surcharging ban” that prevents businesses adding an extra levy when people use a specific payment method.

The government’s own figures from earlier this year say that the surcharges, which were banned in January, cost Britons £166 million in 2015. The warning is contained in one of 24 technical papers covering preparations businesses should take in case the UK and EU cannot agree a deal before Britain leaves the trade bloc in March.

Updated

CBI and TUC both say no deal Brexit would be disastrous

The CBI and the TUC have both said that the no deal planning papers published today show that a no deal Brexit would be disastrous.

This is from Josh Hardie, CBI deputy director general.

These no deal Brexit technical notices show that those who claim crashing out of the EU on World Trade Organisation rules is acceptable live in a world of fantasy, where facts are not allowed to challenge ideology. By now few can be in any doubt that no deal would wreak havoc on economies across Europe.

And this is from Frances O’Grady, the TUC general secretary.

These papers confirm that a no-deal Brexit is not a credible option. It would be devastating for working people. Jobs and rights at work would be under threat, and price increases would hit already-struggling families hard.

The government cannot allow us to crash out. The prime minister must throw out her red lines, face down the extremists in her party, and negotiate a deal that works for the whole of the UK.

The CBI and the TUC were both strongly opposed to Brexit, and have both been pushing for the softest possible Brexit since the referendum, and so their comments are not particularly surprising.

But their words are very strong and and, read alongside what the Scottish and Welsh governments are saying (see 1.28pm), they suggest that the publication of the planning documents has intensified fears about a no deal Brexit, not assuaged them.

Updated

Scottish and Welsh governments say no deal Brexit unacceptable and May should rule it out

The Scottish and Welsh governments have both said the papers published today by the UK government fail to address the problems a no deal Brexit would pose.

Mike Russell, constitutional relations secretary in the SNP-run Scottish government, said the UK was facing a “no deal nightmare” after Dominic Raab published the first tranche of technical notices on the impact of a no deal Brexit. Russell said the documents “lay bare” the risks to businesses and public services of a no deal outcome. He said:

From the bureaucratic burden that will be imposed on EU imports and exports to the need to strike a wide range of ‘no deal’ deals before the end of March, these notices only add to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.

People want to know if their medication will still be available and farmers and fishermen want to know if they will still be able to sell their products.

While a responsible government must prepare for all exit possibilities, the UK government should rule out a disastrous ‘no deal’ and focus instead on securing the best outcome for us all – which, short of staying in the EU, is remaining part of the single market and customs union.

And Carwyn Jones, the Labour Welsh first minister, said in a statement:

The writing is on the wall. ‘No deal’ would be a catastrophic failure of the UK government that would cause huge disruption and serious, long-lasting economic and social damage to all parts of the UK.

It is hugely frustrating, because if the UK government had adopted the blueprint to negotiations we set out over 18 months ago, they could have made substantial progress on the future partnership with the EU. They also could have avoided the situation we face today where our biggest employers are considering leaving the UK with the loss of thousands of jobs causing disruption to our economy, our universities are at risk of losing out on vital research and our hospitals are warning of staff shortages putting patients at risk.

‘No deal’ is not an option and the UK government’s bluff is fooling no-one. It is time the prime minister dropped the poker face and worked constructively with the EU-27 to secure a Brexit deal that protects our citizens, services and economy.

Updated

Drug companies must stockpile medicines in case of no deal Brexit, says Hancock

Matt Hancock, the health secretary, has published an open letter (pdf) he has written to NHS organisations about the no deal Brexit planning.

He says drug companies will be asked to stockpile medicines to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit.

Today the government has set out a new scheme to ensure a sufficient and seamless supply of medicines in the UK in the event of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. In the unlikely event we leave the EU without a deal in March 2019, based on the current cross government planning scenario we will ensure the UK has an additional six weeks supply of medicines in case imports from the EU through certain routes are affected. This is the current planning assumption but will of course be subject to revision in light of future developments.

Under the medicines scheme, pharmaceutical companies should ensure therefore they have an additional six weeks supply of medicines in the UK on top of their own normal stock levels. The scheme also includes separate arrangements for the air freight of medicines with short shelf-lives, such as medical radioisotopes. The government is working closely with companies who provide medicines in the UK to ensure patients continue to get the medicines they need. I am today also writing to pharmaceutical companies with more details.

Interestingly, Hancock also says he does not want hospitals, GPs and patients to start stockpiling drugs themselves. He specifically tells them not to do this, warning that they will face investigation if they disobey.

Hospitals, GPs and community pharmacies throughout the UK do not need to take any steps to stockpile additional medicines, beyond their business as usual stock levels. There is also no need for clinicians to write longer NHS prescriptions. Local stockpiling is not necessary and any incidences involving the over ordering of medicines will be investigated and followed up with the relevant chief or responsible pharmacist directly.

Clinicians should advise patients that the government has plans in place to ensure a continued supply of medicines to patients from the moment we leave the EU. Patients will not need to and should not seek to store additional medicines at home.

(This is faintly reminiscent of a warning against the old wartime vice of “hoarding”, something that once got Margaret Thatcher into trouble in the 1970s.)

Matt Hancock
Matt Hancock Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

Expat pensioners could lose access to pension income and financial services, papers say

UK citizens living in Europe face the possibility of losing access to their pension income and other financial services, according to technical papers on no-deal Brexit preparations, the Press Association reports. Lending and deposit services, insurance and annuities - which people rely on for a regular pension income - are among the financial products which expats could struggle to access, it has been suggested.

A no deal planning document says:

In the absence of action from the EU, EEA-based customers of UK firms currently passporting into the EEA, including UK citizens living in the EEA, may lose the ability to access existing lending and deposit services, insurance contracts (such as life insurance contracts and annuities) due to UK firms losing their rights to passport into the EEA.

As the Press Association reports, the documents say the government has committed to putting unilateral action in place if necessary to resolve issues as far as possible on the UK side. For UK-based customers who access banking, insurance, investment funds and other financial services with EEA firms currently passporting into the UK, temporary permissions will enable these firms to continue to provide these services to UK customers for up to three years after exit - allowing firms time to apply for authorisation to continue operating in the UK, the documents said.

New medicines will need UK approval before they can be made available to patients in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the Press Associaton reports. The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA), which regulates drugs in the UK, will take on the functions of the EU if an agreement is not reached by March 29. Products will have to go through national assessment before they receive market authorisation to be sold in the UK, according to a technical paper on no-deal Brexit preparations.

The notice states:

After EU exit, to market a product in the UK, an initial market authorisation application will need to be submitted to the MHRA and will go through a national assessment.

MHRA will take a streamlined approach to approving UK market authorisation applications that places no greater burden on industry and ensures that patients can access new and innovative medicines at the same time as EU patients.

Most new medicines currently come to the market through a licensing route overseen by the European Medicines Agency (EMA). However, as the Press Association reports, if a deal is not reached, the UK’s current participation in the European regulatory network including centralised routes will cease, according to the guidance. The outcome of EU procedures that have not reached the decision phase when the UK leaves the EU will not be valid, it adds. “However, the MHRA will take EU decisions into account where possible,” the paper states.

Labour says 'vague' planning documents show government not ready for a no deal Brexit

Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, says Dominic Raab’s speech today, and the papers that have been published, show the government is not prepared for a no deal Brexit. In a statement Starmer said:

Dominic Raab’s speech exposes the reality that this government is simply not prepared for a no deal scenario.

The speech was thin on detail, thin on substance and provided no answers to how ministers intend to mitigate the serious consequences of leaving the EU without an agreement.

We are eight weeks out from the deadline for reaching an agreement. Ministers should be getting on the job of negotiating a Brexit deal that works for Britain, not publishing vague documents that will convince no one.

A no deal Brexit has never been viable and would represent a complete failure of the government’s negotiating strategy.

And Sky’s Lewis Goodall has posted a good thread on Twitter with some of the highlights from the papers.

This is from my colleague Heather Stewart, who has been looking at the Brexit no deal planning papers.

The no deal planning papers are now here, on the Brexit department’s website.

Here is an overview from the Brexit department explaining what the government is doing.

And here is the full text of Dominic Raab’s speech.

More than 300,000 pensioners who have moved overseas could be hit in the pocket in the event of no deal.

Almost 200,000 pensioners have retired abroad are in receipt of a British pension and reciprocal health care.

Another 135,000 British pensions are currently paid to Irish citizens who live in the republic, many of them who worked in Northern Ireland but lived south of the border secure in the knowledge pensions were mobile under EU law.

Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, admitted that these are at risk but said he was confident there bilateral deals could be struck with EU member states who would also have a vested interest to protect their citizens living in the UK on EU pensions.

“I would have thought that would be a practical issue we can resolve,” Raab told reporters after his speech on no deal planning.

The government revealed last year that there 190,000 UK insured pensioners with reciprocal health care arrangements, by which HMRC reimburses Spanish, French and other health services for treatments received by Britons retired abroad. This included 70,000 in Spain, 44,000 in Ireland, 43,000 in France and 12,000 in Cyprus.

Earlier this month the Irish government said there was “broad agreement” with the UK to “maintain the status quo” in terms of payments to the holders of UK pensions in Ireland.

Raab has finished taking questions now.

The Brexit department (officially DExEU - the Department for Exiting the European Union) is meant to be posting the no deal planning documents on its website, but they are not there yet.

Raab has been talking about there being 25 papers coming out today, but in fact there are 24.

UPDATE: There are 24 subject-specific papers, but also a 25th, giving an overview, so in fact both figures are accurate.

Updated

My colleague Heather Stewart has been reading the no deal planning papers on an embargoed basis. The embargo has just been lifted, and she has filed a first take story. Here it is.

And this is how it starts.

Consumers would face slower and more costly credit card payments when they buy EU products, and British citizens living abroad could lose access to their bank accounts, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the government has warned.

The Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, insisted he was “confident that a good deal is in our sights”, as he launched 24 “technical notices” in Westminster on Thursday morning, telling businesses and the public how to prepare if no deal is reached.

He insisted the government’s priority was to ensure continuity. But the 24 technical notices – the first batch of more than 80 due over the summer – underline the potential impact on daily life, if Britain leaves without a deal in place in March next year.

With UK banks likely to lose access to EU payments systems, the financial services paper warns that, “customers (including business using these providers to process euro payments) could face increased costs and slower processing times for Euro transactions”.

It added: “The cost of card payments between the UK and EU will likely increase.”

Q: What should individuals do to prepare for a no deal?

Raab says, for individuals, there will not be much change at all. There is not much for them to do. He says it is businesses that will have to make plans.

Q: [From the Sun’s Harry Cole] You no deal planning seems to assume you will do deals with the EU. That doesn’t make sense.

Raab says it would be in the interests of the EU to come up with arrangements that would satisfy their nationals too.

Q: When will all these technical notices be published?

Raab says 25 are being published today. That is roughly a third of the total. More will be published in coming weeks. He would expect them all to be published by the end of September.

Q: You promised people that Brexit would free them from red tape. But don’t these papers propose a red tape bonanza? And is it right that Britons living in the EU could lose their pensions?

Raab says the government is giving practical advice to firms. That is what it does in relation to other export markets too.

On citizens’ rights, he says he wants to provide as much reassurance to Britons living abroad as possible.

Q: But you cannot guarantee they will still get their pensions?

Raab says the questioner is right to say that, in the event of there being no deal, there will be a change. But EU nationals living in the UK would be affected too. He says he thinks there would be a practical solution.

Q: Do you accept that a no deal Brexit would leave the UK worse off, and by how much? And you are asking Brussels to back off from red lines. Did you always think so much of Brexit would rely on wishful thinking?

Raab says he thinks the UK will be better off outside the EU in the long term. But in the short term there could be challenges, he says.

He says he is going into the talks with energy, and willing to show flexibility. If that is matched by the EU, there will be a deal, he says.

Raab's Q&A

Raab is now taking questions.

He says he is going back to Brussels next week for more talks with Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator.

He says what people are seeing today is not the start of the government’s no deal planning.

Raab says his message is a pragmatic one. People should take note of the practical information being provided, he says, and consider their own contingency plans.

Raab says, if the negotiations fail, the UK will continue to act as a responsible partner for the EU.

He says the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are working together on risk management. That shows how both sides can act responsibly, he says.

Raab says the technical notices being published today are a “sensible, measured and proportionate” approach to dealing with the possible challenges of a no deal Brexit.

He says some of the scare stories, like the one about a “sandwich famine” or the army having to deliver food supplies, are ridiculous.

He says no one thinks the EU won’t want to sell food to the UK after Brexit.

People will still be able to enjoy a BLT after Brexit, he says. And there are no plans to deploy the army to deliver food supplies.

Raab says UK might want 'as much continuity as possible' in short term under no deal Brexit

Raab says he wants to give an example of what the documents cover.

At the moment medicines only have to go through one set of checks.

When the UK leaves, it will not be part of the EU medicines regime. But the government is proposing to say it would accept EU checks in those circumstances.

Given that the UK and the EU have common rules, it makes sense to do that. He says the UK would also expect the EU to accept UK rules in return. But it could not guarantee that.

He says the UK would start by accepting EU regulations. But, over time, it would diverge, when it was ready to do so.

Our overarching aim is to facilitate the smooth, continued, functioning of business, transport, infrastructure, research, aid programmes and funding streams.

In some cases, it means taking unilateral action to maintain as much continuity as possible in the short term, in the event of no deal — irrespective of whether the EU reciprocates.

Of course, while we may take that approach in the short term, we will be outside the EU, and free to diverge when we are ready, on our terms, in the UK national interest, and when it’s right for the British people.

Raab says the government does not want, or expect, the UK to end up leaving the EU with no deal.

But a responsible government has to plan for every eventuality, he says.

Dominic Raab's Brexit speech

Dominic Raab is starting his Brexit speech. There is a live feed at the top of this blog.

David Lidington, the Cabinet Office minister, has said the UK and European commission could fail to agree a Brexit deal by the current target date of October, and suggested it could take until the end of 2018 before an agreement is finalised.

“Progress is being made. We remain of the view we are hopeful and optimistic of there being a good deal agreed in the autumn of this year,” he told reporters in Edinburgh, during a three day tour of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

I saw Michel Barnier yesterday [actually, on Tuesday] suggesting it might not be in October but that it might slip into a little bit later.

Frankly that doesn’t surprise me. I was a Europe minister I have seen enough of these negotiations to know that those deadlines slip. I think there will need to be in agreement by the end of 2018.

He added: “A chaotic Brexit isn’t in anybody’s interests which is why the government is working so hard on a negotiated outcome, and we believe that the package which is expressed in the Chequers white paper provides with a good pragmatic way forward which will deliver for Scotland and every other part of the UK.”

Corbyn says, if Labour were running Brexit, UK could end up better off outside EU

In his Q&A Jeremy Corbyn said something quite interesting about Brexit (which is the main focus of the blog today); he said the UK could be better off outside the EU if Labour were in charge of the Brexit process.

This came when Corbyn was asked about his refusal six times to answer a question earlier this week from a Channel 4 News journalist about whether he thinks the UK would be better off outside the EU. See 10.46am for the clip. (Originally I put the wrong clip in the 10.46am post, but the right one is there now. You may have to refresh the page to get it to appear.)

Corbyn told the Edinburgh audience today that Labour would prioritise trade links with the EU in the Brexit talks. He went on:

If you go down the road that’s being promoted by the Tory right, of a deal with the United States, we undoubtedly would be a lot worse off. I think the proposals that Labour is putting forward, and the way that Labour would conduct those negotiations, would make sure that people would be as well off or better off.

But, fundamentally, it is also about how we run our economy in this country because we would be investing for the future rather than cutting for the future.

This is mildly controversial because many in Labour think that there are no circumstances whatsoever in which the UK could be better off outside the EU, regardless of who is in charge of the talks.

The Corbyn Q&A is over.

Q: You talk about journalists holding politicians to account. But just this week you refused six times to answer a question from a journalist about whether you think Britain will be worse off if we leave the EU. Can you answer that now?

Corbyn says he realises this has become a game.

He says he said he wanted Britain to be as well as possible.

If he were negotiating, he would prioritise the trade relationship with the EU, he says.

He says the Tory approach would make people worse off. If Labour were negotiating Brexit, the UK would be as well off, or better off, he says.

Here is the clip the questioner referred to.

Updated

Q: If tech companies have to fund BBC journalist, wouldn’t that give them influence over the BBC?

Corbyn says he does not accept that.

The next questioner says, as an immigrant, she thinks that for the Daily Mail to be saying anything about morality is ridiculous.

Q: Do you have any plans to make journalists more accountable?

Corbyn says the need for accountability provoked Leveson 1. And that is why Labour favours the Leveson 2 inquiry going ahead.

Q: [From the Daily Mail] A cynic might say you want to dismantle papers because they have exposed antisemitism in Labour and your role in that wreath-laying ceremony.

Corbyn says he wants a strong and vibrant democracy, and he wants journalists to support that.

This is not about retribution, he says.

He says he has spent his life fighting racism and antisemitism. That is what Labour stands for. He wants to live in a multi-racial and diverse country. “Thank you for your question,” he adds at the end.

Maxine Peake is now inviting questions from the audience.

Q: What are Labour’s plans for tackling monopolies in the media?

Corbyn says most national titles are owned by few companies. And many local papers are owned by big firms with no local connection, he says.

He says he reads local papers all over the country. But increasingly now they have content provided from far away. Sometimes he reads papers where they seem to have muddled up the content, and are running stories relating to areas far away.

He says he wants much greater diversity of ownership and more local content in local papers.

This is from the Times’ Jenni Russell.

Corbyn is now talking about digital advertising works. Google keeps offering him adverts for hotels in Somerset, he says. That’s because he recently booked a holiday for his family there. He says he finds this a bit “insidious”.

Jeremy Corbyn being interviewed by Maxine Peake
Jeremy Corbyn being interviewed by Maxine Peake Photograph: YouTube

Corbyn's Q&A

Jeremy Corbyn is now holding a Q&A after his Edinburgh speech. The actress Maxine Peake is interviewing him before opening it up to questions from the audience.

Q: After the treatment you have received, do you still have an affinity for journalists?

Yes, says Corbyn. He has “absolute respect” for journalism at its best. He is not put off by some of the treatment he has received.

Q: You get criticised on a daily basis. How do you sleep at night?

Corbyn says if you believe in what you are doing, that helps. Some of the criticism he gets is grotesquely unfair. His media team spend a lot of time dealing with stories that are wrong, he says.

But, he says, politicians should be subject to scrutiny.

What he finds strange, he says, is how the stories that the media focus on do not relate to the issues that ordinary people feel important.

He says, at their best, journalists go out and listen to the voices of people who are not heard.

Q: If you were an investigative journalist, what would you investigate?

Poverty and inequality in this country, he says, particularly the impact on children.

The full text of Jeremy Corbyn’s Alternative MacTaggart lecture is available here. It’s a proper, serious speech, with data, robust argument and specific proposals. If you are at all interested in media policy, you should read it in full.

Public confidence Brexit talks will end satisfactorily has plummeted, poll suggests

We’ve got some new Guardian/ICM polling out this week, and one of the questions covered Brexit. The findings were quite striking.

  • Public confidence that the Brexit talks will conclude satisfactorily has plummeted in recent months, a Guardian/ICM poll suggests. By a margin of more than three to one now, people think they won’t end well. For almost a year we have been asking people if they think the Brexit negotiations will or will not “conclude satisfactorily” by 29 March 2019, the day the UK is due to leave the EU. In October last year the pessimists outnumbered the optimists, but not by a massive margin (45% to 30%). In December, in a poll taken after agreement was reached in phase one of the Brexit talks, the pessimists were only ahead by four points. By April the pessimists were again substantially ahead, with 28% saying the talks would end satisfactorily and 47% saying unsatisfactorily (a 19-point lead). But when ICM polled at the weekend if found only 18% of people saying the talks would end well, and 60% saying they wouldn’t.

As ICM’s George Pinder points out, the shift in opinion has been particularly marked amongst leave voters and amongst those who backed the Conservatives at the last election. He says:

Whilst, back in April, ‘leavers’ were evenly split on whether the negotiations would be successful (36% yes, 36% no), these figures now stand at 23% and 54%, respectively. The story is much the same for those who intend to vote Conservative at the next general election, with an almost perfect flipping of the results. 44% now think that the talks will not be resolved satisfactorily (up 12 percentage points from 32% in April) and around a third (32%) think that they will (down 13 percentage points from 45%).

Superficially these results look quite grim for the government. But given that ministers have been quite deliberately talking up the risk of a no deal Brexit - Jeremy Hunt, the new foreign secretary, has been speaking of little else this summer, and today’s release of 24 “technical notices” puts the story back in the headlines - it is perhaps not surprising that voters are increasingly convinced that a no deal Brexit will happen.

How confidence in the Brexit talks ending well has changed
How confidence in the Brexit talks ending well has changed

This week’s Guardian/ICM polling also included results suggesting that replacing Theresa May with Boris Johnson, or other putative leadership candidates, would not boost the Conservative party’s chances of winning the next election, as well as voting intention figures showing the Tories and Labour neck and neck. We published those results yesterday.

The full tables will go up on the ICM website later today. I will post a link to them here later as an update.

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,021 adults aged 18 or over, between 17 and 19 August 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

UPDATE: The full ICM tables are now available here (pdf).

Updated

Raab says no deal Brexit would bring opportunities as well as challenges

Here are the main points from Dominic Raab’s interview on the Today programme.

  • Raab, the Brexit secretary, said that a no deal Brexit would bring opportunities as well as challenges. He said:

One thing I would just say in relation to the no deal scenario, it’s quite right to say that there will be risks and challenges, and that we will need to manage the risks and address the challenges. There will also be opportunities. So let’s have a balanced debate and put the unlikely scenario of a no deal Brexit in some sort of context. That’s one of the points that we will be doing today.

  • He admitted that a no deal Brexit would pose risks, but he said it was important to keep them in proportion.

There are risks here. But let’s not have the risks blown out of proportion, out of context. What we are going to do today is be honest about the risks, inform those affected ... and give some guidance, and I hope with that some reassurance, and also critically some context about the risk.

  • He said he was still confident that there would be a deal.

I’m still confident a good deal is within our sights. We have got agreement on about 80% of the issues. We have made clear that if negotiations don’t achieve the optimum outcome we will continue to be a responsible European neighbour and partner.

  • He played down suggestions that a no deal Brexit could lead to a shortage of medicines. He said:

With the pharmaceutical suppliers, we have got three months’ worth of buffer stock already for over 200 medicines ... Public Health England already hold at least three months’ supply of vaccines. So we are used to doing this kind of thing.

Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary.
Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary. Photograph: Francois Lenoir/Reuters

Jeremy Corbyn is delivering the Alternative MacTaggart lecture at the Edinburgh Television Festival. It is a major speech about media policy, and much of the content was briefed overnight. Here is my colleague Jim Waterson’s preview.

Corbyn has just started speaking. There is a live feed here.

Jeremy Corbyn’s Alternative MacTaggart lecture.

This blog is mostly focused on Brexit today, and so I will not cover the speech minute by minute. A full text will be available later. But I will cover the Q&A afterwards.

This is from Barney Pell Scholes, a press officer for the People’s Vote campaign (which is calling for a second Brexit referendum.)

Starmer's Today interview - Summary

Here are main quotes from Sir Keir Starmer’s Today programme interview.

  • Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, said Labour was keeping the option of a second referendum on Brexit “on the table”. The party was not calling for one, but it was open to the idea as an option, he said. He told the programme:

I do think there needs to be a democratic check. I don’t think the prime minister can simply decide for herself what the future of this country looks like. I have focused on the vote in parliament, and the meaningful vote. If that vote is to reject the article 50 deal, parliament must decide what happens next. In those circumstances, it seems to me, all options should be on the table. So we’ve not called for a vote on the deal; we’ve called for a vote in parliament on the deal. But I accept the proposition that, if it’s voted down, parliament then decides what happens next and in those circumstances, in my experience in the last few years, keep your options on the table not off the table.

When it was put to him that Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, did seem to rule out Labour backing a second referendum on Tuesday, Starmer over-ruled him. He said:

We are not calling for it, but in the event that article 50 is voted down, we think all options should be on the table ... That is the Labour party position.

  • Starmer dismissed Gardiner’s claim that holding a second referendum could lead to social unrest. When asked about Gardiner’s comment, he said:

Well, we’ve had lots of ups and downs already on Brexit, I’m sure there are many to come, and I have not seen signs of civil disobedience. So I think we can get through this exercise without that.

Starmer says Labour keeping second Brexit referendum option 'on the table'

Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, also gave an interview to the Today programme this morning. Labour’s official line is that it does not want a second referendum on Brexit (although it has never explicitly ruled this out), but Starmer shifted the line on this a little when he said that holding a second referendum should be “on the table” as a possible option if parliament fails to agree a Brexit agreement later this year.

Tom Watson, the deputy Labour leader, said something very similar earlier in the summer, but Starmer sounded marginally more positive about the prospect than Watson did.

Starmer’s comment came when he was asked about what his shadow cabinet colleague, Barry Gardiner, said on this two days ago. Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, was very dismissive about the prospect, suggesting a second referendum could trigger social unrest. Starmer outranks Gardiner and his comments amounted to a put-down. He also explicitly rejected what Gardiner was saying about a second referendum and social unrest.

I will post full quotes from the Starmer interview soon.

Updated

Q: Is the EU minded to accept the British plans for the Irish border?

Raab says the EU is looking at British plans carefully. There is an understanding of the position on both sides. Both parties are working pragmatically towards a solution, he says.

And that’s it. The interview is over.

I will post a summary soon.

Raab says in lots of areas, like security, the EU and the UK are moving towards an agreement.

Q: It has been said you are planning “unilateral” action to allow trade to continue in the event of a no deal Brexit. What does that mean?

Raab says, if the talks do not achieve an optimal outcome, the UK would expect to remain a responsible partner. He would expect the EU to do the same.

Q: Would the EU do the same?

Raab says he is “confident cooler heads would prevail”.

He says some of those promoting no deal scare stories claim the EU would behave in a vindictive way. That would not happen, he says.

He says these stories are coming from a “small and dwindling pool” of people still trying to frustrate Brexit.

Raab says, in the unlikely event a no deal Brexit takes place, he hopes that good will will be maintained.

This would affect the EU as well as the UK, he says.

Q: It has been reported that one of the papers will admit that turmoil would occur on day one in the City in the event of a no deal Brexit.

Raab says he thinks the word “turmoil” won’t appear.

Q: Would there be an economic shock, and a fall in sterling?

Raab says the Bank of England is working on plans to make sure it could address the short-term problems.

But it is also important to consider the opportunities Brexit offers, he says.

Q: Will people need to get international driving licences?

Raab says 25 papers are being published today. Others will follow.

Dominic Raab's Today interview

Dominic Raab says the UK is “largely self-sufficient” in the supply of blood.

He urges people to keep the risks of a no deal Brexit in proportion.

Dominic Raab prepares to publish Brexit no deal planning papers

Theresa May is not the most eloquent of politicians but she has already coined at least three expressions which will be remembered in the dictionary of political quotations for years to come: “Brexit means Brexit”, “Nothing has changed,” and “No deal is better than a bad deal.” Today the government will be publishing a raft of documents intended to show that the third proposition is true (and not a blatant lie, as the second one was when she said it during the 2017 election campaign.)

For months Tory Brexiters have been urging the government go step up planning for a no deal Brexit, so that the UK can go into the final stage of the Brexit talks with the EU with a credible “plan B” if the Brussels offer is unsatisfactorily. Ministers will be hoping that the papers published today will boost that case. But critics claim that leaving the EU without a deal would be disastrous, and they will be scouring today’s “technical notices”, as the government calls them, for evidence to back their case.

Here is our overnight preview story.

Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, is now being interviewed on the Today programme.

Here is the agenda for the day.

11am: Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, gives his speech.

After 11.30am: The government publishes the first 25 of the 84 “technical notices” it is releasing saying what plans individuals and businesses should make for a possible no deal Brexit.

I will mostly be focusing on the Brexit speech and papers today, although I may be able to give some coverage to Jeremy Corbyn’s media speech in Edinburgh.

You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news from Jack Blanchard. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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