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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
National

Brexit deal: What is a no-deal Brexit and what could it mean for the UK?

Prime Minister Theresa May leaves 10 Downing Street in London on November 14, 2018 (Picture: AFP/Getty Images)

Theresa May was in crunch talks with her ministers today in a special Cabinet meeting following the announcement that a draft Brexit deal has been reached.

The Prime Minister was hoping to win Cabinet backing for the deal after briefing ministers on Wednesday morning about the terms of the plan.

If all goes to plan, the Government will stage a vote in the House of Commons before Christmas - but it looks increasingly likely Mrs May will get it through Parliament.

A leaked memo from Brussels earlier today suggested the EU "will retain all the controls" in the deal, badly undermining Mrs May's battle to keep MPs on her side.

Theresa May: Draft deal takes us closer to Brexit goal

If the deal fails to win support in Westminster, the UK could possibly crash out of the EU without a deal.

Some hardcore Brexiteers believe a no-deal would be preferable to a soft, or "bad", Brexit deal. so what is a no-deal Brexit and how could it affect the UK?

What is a no-deal Brexit?

A no-deal Brexit means the UK would leave the EU without having secured a formal withdrawal agreement. The UK is set to formally withdraw from the EU on March 29, 2019.

What happens if the deal fails to win support in Westminster?

Anti-Brexit campaigner Steve Bray stands on the pavement outside the Houses of Parliament (AFP/Getty Images)

Some MPs, such as Dominic Grieve and Chuka Umunna, are setting a People’s Vote as their priority and want a second referendum on the terms of a Brexit deal.

A second referendum could also give the public the chance to decide whether it still wanted to go ahead with withdrawal.

Labour would push for a General Election to give someone else the opportunity to negotiate a better deal. If there was no General Election, Labour party policy in broad terms is to push for a People's Vote.

A challenge to Mrs May's leadership if she fails to get a vote through Parliament could trigger a General Election.

What will happen in the event of a no-deal Brexit?

Dr Simon Usherwood, a reader in politics at the University of Surrey, told the i that when the UK leaves the EU, "everything associated with that would come to an end".

"[A no deal] doesn’t stop the UK leaving but it means there is absolutely no clarity about what happens," he added.

In reality, a no deal scenario would mean there would be no transition period for consumers, businesses and public bodies and they would have to respond immediately to the changes.

This scenario would allow Britain to try and broker trade deals with other countries, but they take years to complete.

But it would mean the country would not be legally obliged to pay the £39 billion divorce bill.

Under the current deal, the UK can only implement trade deals with other countries after the transition period.

The transition period would allow Britain to make new trade deals with the EU but in a no deal situation, there would be no adjustment time to allow for changes in laws or negotiations for trading deals.

Chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier rejected the Chequers proposal (AFP/Getty Images)

What affect would a no-deal Brexit have on Britain?

EU nationals living in the UK and UK citizens living in the EU could see their residency rights disappear overnight and become subject to domestic immigration rules.

A no deal Brexit threatens to put pressure the Good Friday agreement, as the EU would want Ireland to impose customs and other checks on its border with Northern Ireland which neither want to do.

Tariffs would be imposed on goods that the UK sends to the EU and the same for goods that the EU sends to the UK. Tariffs on agricultural products could be as high as 60 percent.

Britain would also exit the single market for goods and agriculture which could result in red tape for businesses.

Customs checks at ports would affect the supply of food and goods and there are fears of long queues at borders and disruption to air travel.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned that house prices could plummet by a third over three years and that homeowners could be left with negative equity and spiralling mortgage rates.

UK Driving licences may not work abroad and British passport holders could run into difficulty.

It would affect Britain's trade, immigration and customs rules which are aligned with the EU.

Under a no-deal scenario, the UK would be treated as a "third country" by the EU and commerce would be governed by World Trade Organisation rules.

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