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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Andrew Sparrow, Matthew Weaver, Kate Lyons and Kevin Rawlinson

Brexit deal: Theresa May determined to 'see this through' amid growing criticism – as it happened

Closing summary

We’re going to close down this live blog now. Thanks for reading. Here’s a summary of the evening’s events:

  • It was widely reported that the international development secretary, Penny Mordaunt, has asked the prime minister for a free vote on her Brexit deal. The move would allow cabinet ministers to vote against it without convention requiring their resignation.
  • Reports also suggested the environment secretary, Michael Gove, had turned down the chance to succeed Dominic Raab as Brexit secretary. There was no official confirmation and Gove, an arch-Brexiter who some had speculated might resign, remained a member of the government.
  • The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, demanded a general election be called, should Theresa May fail to get her deal through parliament. After appearing to suggest Brexit was unstoppable at the weekend, Corbyn explicitly referenced the party conference promise to pursue a second referendum if no general election was called in an email to members.
  • There were suggestions that enough Tory backbenchers had declared they had lost faith in the prime minister to trigger a vote of confidence in her leadership. One Conservative MP said he felt the magic number may have been reached, but the fact not yet announced.

For a summary of Theresa May’s speech from earlier this afternoon, read here. And you can read the full round-up of the day’s political news here:

The former government minister, James Duddridge, suggests the number of letters required to trigger a vote may already have been reached as the Tory MP, Adam Holloway, becomes the latest to submit one.

Duddridge, who sent in his own call to the 1922 Committee chairman, Graham Brady, during the Tory conference in October, said:

I think I recall Brady said he will give the PM 48 hours notice before going public. We may have hit the 48 letters but no announcement.

Holloway announced he has submitted his letter calling for a no-confidence vote on his Facebook page this evening.

Updated

Here’s a look at some of tomorrow’s front pages – most of which, as one might imagine, lead on the Brexit story.

The Guardian is among those to note that, despite the forces of all political colours now arrayed against her, May fights on:

It is perhaps revelatory that papers that usually have opposing viewpoints, particularly on Brexit, follow a similar line. They include the Times and the Financial Times, as well as the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Express:

Perhaps most notable is that the Daily Mail, under new management of course, which goes yet further. It attacks the hard Brexiters to whom it used to hand so much positive coverage, who it now accuses of denouncing May’s deal without offering a viable alternative.

Moreover, it says that – beyond a hard Brexit and no Brexit at all – there is no viable alternative:

In a not-dissimilar vein, the I paper and Metro focus on the fire May is come under from her own side:

While the Daily Mirror and City AM both lead on the prime minister’s cricketing sign-off at this afternoon’s press conference:

And finally, some might suggest the only paper to get it right is the Daily Star, which leads on a story about Holly Willoughby – giving the day’s Brexit news no more than a bottom corner slot:

Theresa May has met Gibraltar’s chief minister, Fabian Picardo, at Downing Street to discuss the Brexit plan this evening. A Downing Street spokesman has said:

They commended the hard work of negotiating teams and the constructive discussions that have taken place with Spain and the European Union to ensure that important mutual interests are protected, and new opportunities are enabled for all.

In particular, the prime minister and chief minister welcomed the conclusion of a protocol on Gibraltar that forms an integral part of the draft withdrawal agreement and will provide certainty to citizens and businesses in Gibraltar and the surrounding area.

The leaders agreed that these arrangements reflected the determination of all parties to move forward in a spirit of dialogue and cooperation.

Two leading Brexiter MPs, David Davis and Owen Paterson, have attacked Theresa May’s proposed EU withdrawal agreement at an event in Washington DC.

Davis, the former Brexit secretary, said the withdrawal agreement proposed by the prime minister was “a very poor deal”, while Paterson said it was “so bad it cannot be allowed to proceed.”

Speaking at the Heritage Foundation, a neoconservative thinktank, the men – who were joined by Shanker Singham of the rightwing Institute for Economic Affairs thinktank – complained that the deal effectively prevented the UK from having an independent trade policy and striking trade deals with other countries.

“This is the greatest tragedy of this deal: it takes a country that could have been a major player in solving global problems, and it makes it completely irrelevant,” said Singham.

Davis predicted that May’s deal would be voted down by parliament, and that the UK would then have to return to EU negotiators and request further concessions. Both Davis and Paterson said leaving without any deal would be preferable to parliament agreeing to May’s proposal.

Davis conceded that “there may be a hiccup or two in the first year if we have a no deal outcome”, but argued that the EU would rapidly agree a free trade deal with the UK because it would be in both countries’ interests to do so.

The former Brexit secretary has previously predicted incorrectly that the UK would rapidly agree a series of free trade deals following Brexit.

A report suggests the arch-Brexiter, Michael Gove, has turned down the Brexit secretary job. It had been said his price for taking it would have been renegotiation of the draft agreement.

Gove is currently the environment secretary.

It appears Penny Mordaunt’s support for a free vote on the Brexit deal is being briefed out in Westminster this evening:

The Welsh secretary, Alun Cairns, has warned pro-Brexit Conservative backbenchers they run the risk of leaving the UK within the EU if they oppose Theresa May’s plan.

The international trade secretary, Liam Fox, who appeared at an event alongside Cairns this evening, refused to speak to journalists after earlier batting away suggestions he might resign over the draft EU withdrawal agreement.

The two ministers hosted a Board of Trade meeting at Swansea University, during which Cairns said the government’s lack of a Commons majority meant any successor to May would find it equally hard to satisfy all parties. He added:

Changing the prime minister doesn’t change the arithmetic of parliament. So, therefore, colleagues need to accept the context in which we’re working.

I would say to the hardliner Leavers who want to leave without a deal that they run the risk of not having a Brexit.

And I would say to the ones who are Remainers who want to ignore the outcome of the referendum that they’re running the risk of leaving without a deal, which is the worst that each side would want.

Cairns admitted the draft agreement was a “compromise”, and described the “backstop” plan to prevent a hard border in Ireland as a “negative” aspect.

My colleague, David Pegg, is keeping an eye on the Heritage Foundation’s Brexit conference, where two Brexit-supporting former government ministers – David Davis and Owen Paterson – have been among those offering their thoughts:

There has been some talk in Westminster about Michael Gove’s whereabouts but my colleague, Heather Stewart, has this:

Here’s the full text of Corbyn’s email to Labour members (emphasis his):

The government is falling apart before our eyes. Their half-baked deal has unravelled, the prime minister has lost all authority and is clearly incapable of delivering a Brexit deal that commands even the support of her Cabinet - let alone parliament and the people of our country.

Our party conference agreed that this deal would be judged against our six tests, and if it failed to meet them we would vote against it.

After two years of bungled negotiations, the government has produced a botched deal that breaches the prime minister’s own red lines, does not meet our six tests and will leave the country in an indefinite halfway house without a real say.

As I said in parliament earlier today, people around the country will be feeling anxious about the industries they work in, the jobs they hold and the stability of this country.

We do not accept that the choice is between the government’s deal and ‘no deal’. We will work across parliament to stop a ‘no deal’ outcome. Labour has set out our alternative plan for a sensible Brexit that would work for all of our nations and regions, bring parliament and the country together, support jobs and our economy and guarantee rights, standards and protections.

If parliament votes down this shambolic Tory deal – as seems likely – this will represent a loss of confidence in the government. In those circumstances, the best outcome for the country is an immediate general election that can sweep the Tories from power and deliver the Labour government this country desperately needs.

If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote.

We are ready to lead, ready to deliver a sensible deal that works for all our regions and nations and ready to build a Britain that works for the many, not the few.

Jeremy Corbyn
Leader of the Labour Party

The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has written to party members this evening, talking up the possibility of a general election if Theresa May cannot get her deal through parliament – “as seems likely”. And one line stands out in particular:

If we cannot get a general election, in line with our conference policy, we will support all options remaining on the table, including campaigning for a public vote.

So, Corbyn is being explicit with members: He will back another referendum if he cannot force a general election.

Now, that was clearly the case at conference this autumn – as Corbyn rightly points out in his email. But there were some concerns among remain-supporting Labour members about whether or not he really did back that after he told Der Speigel at the weekend that “we can’t stop” Brexit.

The rumour mill had suggested Penny Mordaunt, the international development secretary, was considering resigning. So, her arrival at Number 10 shortly after the prime minister’s press conference caused some eyebrows to be raised in expectation.

No need, according to the Daily Telegraph’s chief political correspondent, Christopher Hope:

Updated

The Lib Dems, perhaps unsurprisingly, are giving short shrift to Theresa May’s defence of her Brexit plan this evening. The party’s leader, Vince Cable, says:

The prime minister took a long time to say nothing this afternoon. She appears to be in denial.

The facts haven’t changed. There is no majority in Parliament for her deal, and she has rightly conceded that ‘No Brexit’ is the real alternative to it. There must now be a people’s vote to break the deadlock and get the country out of this mess.

Updated

Theresa May's press conference - Snap verdict

Little known fact about Theresa May; she has an exceptionally good memory. She can “read a full statement and repeat it almost verbatim”, Philip Cowley and Dennis Kavanagh write in their definitive account of the 2017 general election. “As one of her team noted: ‘She reads it through once, it’s an almost photographic memory. And I mean word-for-word, not paraphrasing.’”

You saw that in action today. There were at least two lines that May used in her answers that sounded pre-scripted, and that she used twice. First, there was: “Am I going to see this through? Yes.” And then there was the spiel how she would be doing her job (negotiating a Brexit deal) and that after that it would be up to MPs to do their job (pass the wretched thing).

As news lines, these don’t really take us us very far. The first is little more than a slogan, although at least it quashes, for the moment, any speculation that May is going to stand down. The second sheds a bit more light on the strategy she might use to get her deal through parliament; MPs will be told it is their national duty to approve the deal, with the implication that if they vote it down, they will be held responsible for the catastrophe that will follow.

What is curious about May, and probably a huge weakness, is her reluctance to take on the arguments of her opponents. She made a modest attempt to explain the need in the Brexit process to accept difficult compromises. But on a day when her Brexiter opponents have been dominating the airwaves, she made no attempt to berate them for the multiple fake promises they made during the EU referendum campaign, despite being given an open invitation to do so. (See 5.35pm.) You can’t win an argument unless you’re willing to tell your opponents they’re wrong. But she won’t. It is as if somehow she has internalised the Brexiter mindset.

What rescued the press conference was her Geoffrey Boycott answer to the final question, which she delivered so well that it could have been staged (although I don’t think it was.) (See 5.52pm.) It made for polished TV, and was about as good a clip as May has ever delivered. But it is still just a slogan. To get Brexit through the Commons, she will need a lot more than that.

That’s all from me for today.

My colleague Kevin Rawlinson is now taking over.

Theresa May at her press conference.
Theresa May at her press conference. Photograph: Matt Dunham/PA

Updated

This is from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

'He stuck to it and got the runs in the end' - May cites Geoffrey Boycott as her Brexit inspiration

Q: You are a cricket fan. How many wickets need to fall in your cabinet before your walk?

May says one of her cricket heroes was Geoffrey Boycott.

And what do you know about Geoffrey Boycott? Geoffrey Boycott stuck to it. And he got the runs in the end.

Geoffrey Boycott - Theresa May’s Brexit inspiration
Geoffrey Boycott - Theresa May’s Brexit inspiration Photograph: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images

Q: Do you regret calling the general election?

May says she does not regret calling the election. She will do her job, she says. MPs will then be held to account on what they do.

For the second time May has called a balding reporter “George” by mistake.

(The FT’s George Parker is shiny up top.)

Q: Is this crisis a failure of your own making? Shouldn’t you have done more to bring the DUP on board?

May says she has been working on the deal for some time. She says she wants to ensure the deal delivers on the vote of the British people.

Q: You have always been adamant the country will leave the EU. You have talked about the risk of no Brexit recently. Do you think that is a definite threat?

May says that is what some MPs argued for today. She disagrees. She thinks MPs must deliver on the referendum result.

Q: You have talked about how you have had to take tough decisions. Can you talk us through that?

May says agreeing the backstop was not easy. But, overall, looking at the national interest, this deal is the right one to proceed with.

Q: What will you do if there is a vote of no confidence in the coming days?

May says leadership is about taking difficult decisions.

As I said earlier, am I going to see this through? Yes.

Q: There are reports that Michael Gove has been asked to become the new Brexit secretary, but that he will only take the job if he can renegotiate the deal. Will you allow that? And why have you not filled ministerial vacancies yet?

May says she has been busy today. She was in the Commons for three hours.

Gove is doing an excellent job, especially on fishing.

She will make appointments in due course.

Q: Your party is deeply divided. Are you prepared to risk a split?

May says MPs have been debating Brexit since the referendum. She thinks, when it comes to the vote, MPs will focus on what is best for the UK.

Q: What do you say to Britain’s friends abroad who look at this and see a government in denial?

May says this is a government working with the EU to deliver a good deal for both sides.

Q: Why don’t you say what you think - that the Brexit campaign offered something not possible? Why won’t you say that?

May says most people recognise this is not an easy negotiation.

The public want the government to get on with it, she says.

Q: Are you not in denial about your chances of getting this through? And is it time for your critics to put up or shut up?

May says she will do her job of getting the best deal. Then MPs will do their jobs. They must consider the interests of their contituents.

This is not an easy thing to do. This is a complex negotiation.

But they want people to know the deal will be in their interests.

May says no one else has come up with a plan that delivers on the EU referendum and involves no hard border in Ireland.

May says she is determined to 'see this through'

May is now taking questions.

Q: [From Laura Kuenssberg] You want to stick to your plan. But others wants to take that out of your hands. Aren’t you in office but not in power?

May says she will negotiate a deal, and put it to the Commons.

She will do her job - getting a deal. Then MPs must do their job. They will be held to account for the decisions they take.

Q: Is it in the national interest for you to fight a confidence vote? And if you win by one vote, will you stay?

May says leadership is not about taking easy decision.

She summarises the benefits of her deal again.

Am I going to see this through? Yes.

  • May says she is determined to “see this through”.

Updated

May says difficult decisions have had to be made.

But the deal delivers what people have voted for.

We can only secure it if we unite behind what the cabinet backed.

The British people “just want us to get on with it”. They want the Conservative party to deliver, she says.

May says she is sorry colleagues have left the government.

But she believes what she is doing is right.

She knows what she wants to do; give the UK control of its laws, money and borders.

She wants to get the UK out of the CAP and the CFP for good.

This agreement will achieve these things, she says.

This is a Brexit that delivers on the priorities of the British people.

But she also wants to protect what matters, like jobs. The deal will protect supply chains, and security, and the integrity of the UK.

Theresa May is here.

She starts by saying serving in high office is an honour and a privilege, but also a heavy responsibility.

She says negotiating Brexit has been a matter of the highest consequence.

It touches every area of our national life.

Her approach has been to put the national interest first, she says.

May is running late. Perhaps she’s playing the Guardian’s “Can you get May’s Brexit deal through parliament?” game. (See 5.19pm.)

Fancy your skills as a government chief whip? Try the Guardian’s “Can you get May’s Brexit deal through parliament?” game.

Bloomberg’s Kitty Donaldson says the 48 letters needed for a no confidence vote have not gone in.

And the Spectator’s James Forsyth says Theresa May’s critics may fail to reach the threshold. In a blog he writes:

There is now an open effort to get the 48 letters required to force a vote of no confidence in Theresa May. Personally, I don’t think it is a racing certainty that this succeeds. The ERG WhatsApp group has had some influential people urging caution, and telling people not to put their letters in.

Theresa May's press conference

Theresa May will be starting her press conference shortly.

The BBC’s Nick Robinson suggests some possible scripts for the PM.

And his colleague Iain Watson says it will be A.

This is from Bloomberg’s Brussels bureau chief, Nikos Chrysoloras.

These are from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

This is from Carwyn Jones, the Welsh first minister. He and Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, have written a joint letter to Theresa May demanding more involvement for the devolved administrations in the Brexit process.

Sky Data have also released some polling.

The bad news for Theresa May is that, of the three options that she says are open to the country (at least, the three options she mentioned in her statement last night - in the Commons today she was claiming no Brexit was not an option), her deal is the last popular. Staying in the EU would be the most popular, suggesting it would win comfortably if the government were to hold a three-option referendum of the type favoured by Justine Greening.

But the good news is that, despite thinking her plan is rubbish, Britons still trust May to lead the country through Brexit more than any of the obvious alternatives, the poll suggests.

(An important point to remember about public opinion is that people are quite capable of believing things that are contradictory.)

YouGov has released some polling on Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The details are here, but these tweets show the key results. By a margin of two to one, Britons oppose the deal, the poll suggests - although 39% of respondents said they did not know.

(During her Commons statement Theresa May seemed to question the validity of any polling at this point, given that the 500-page text of the deal was only released last night.)

At a press conference in Brussels Donald Tusk, president of the European council, restated his desire for Brexit to be abandoned. He told journalists:

The EU is prepared for a final deal with the United Kingdom in November.

We are also prepared for a no-deal scenario but of course we are best prepared for a no-Brexit scenario.

Donald Tusk.
Donald Tusk. Photograph: Isopix/REX/Shutterstock

Here is a graphic comparing cabinet resignations under David Cameron with resignations under Theresa May.

Cabinet resignations under Cameron and May
Cabinet resignations under Cameron and May

Of the seven Tories have have resigned today (see 4.05pm), only one, Shailesh Vara, voted remain in 2016. Friends of Vara said that while he may have voted to remain in the referendum, he is now a leave supporter. He has changed his mind because of the way that the EU has behaved since the EU referendum.

They say he resigned on principle and did so because of a loss of sovereignty and the inability to leave the customs union without EU permission.

“He had no choice. He loved the job in Northern Ireland but needed to be able to believe in this plan. He just couldn’t,” the source said.

Trade envoy and Tory vice chair Rehman Chishti resigns over Brexit

Under first David Cameron, and then Theresa May, the so-called “payroll vote” - MPs who are not in the government, but who have official jobs that mean that are obliged to be loyal - has expanded. There are more parliamentary private secretaries (PPSs) than there used to be. In January Theresa May appointed nine Conservative vice chairs, in addition to the four already in place. And the government has also a ludicrously large number of “trade envoys” - all of whom, presumably, get free travel to interesting places.

But the downside of appointing more people to spurious jobs is that the more people there are who can resign. This afternoon the Conservative MP Rehman Chishti has done just that. Chishti, a leave voter in 2016, was a Conservative vice chair and a trade envoy, but he has quit both roles, partly because he sees the Brexit plan as a betrayal of the Conservative manifesto pledge to leave the customs union. He also thinks the government should be doing more to help Asia Bibi.

That means seven Tory MPs have now resigned from government or party roles today. See 12.55pm.

Theresa May will hold a press conference at 5pm, Guido Fawkes’ Tom Harwood reports.

May had been planning to give a press conference yesterday to discuss the deal, and so this is not unexpected. It does not (necessarily) mean that May is planning some shock announcement.

Updated

May's Brexit deal is 'essentially dead', says Scottish government

The Scottish government has declared that Theresa May’s Brexit deal is “essentially dead”. In a statement Michael Russell, the Scottish constitutional relations secretary, said:

Brexit isn’t a better future - it is a backward step into an imagined past. We must acknowledge that this deal is unacceptable to Scotland and her citizens. It therefore cannot be supported by this government.

This deal is the inevitable result of a series of self-imposed draconian red lines. It is now essentially dead.

Russell also said that, if the Brexit plan gets agreed by the EU at a summit on Sunday 25 November, MSPs will vote on it before the vote in the House of Commons.

A vote in the Scottish parliament would not have any impact on the deal, but it would enable the SNP to demonstrate the extent of Scotland’s opposition to the plan.

The Telegraph’s Steven Swinford says Michael Gove, the environment secretary, is telling Theresa May that he will only take the Brexit secretary job if he can renegotiate the deal.

It could be time to brush up on “Norway for Now”. (See 10.29am.)

On the subject of “Norway for Now” (a plan for the UK to stay in the EEA after Brexit, like Norway, with a view to moving to a Canada-style relationship later), it is worth pointing out that Nick Boles, the Gove ally who has been pushing the idea, recently suggested in a Sunday Times article (paywall) that “now” could actually mean “for ever”. He wrote:

So we would need to reassure the other Efta states that we are open to the full range of possibilities for our future relationship, and that one of those might include the evolution of the EEA agreement for the benefit of the other Efta states as well as the UK.

Europe is changing. Tensions are rising between newer members on the periphery and the founder members who signed the Treaty of Rome. President Emmanuel Macron of France wants to create a Europe of concentric circles. Within a few years, Germany will have new leadership and at least two of the candidates to replace the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, have expressed support for reform. With Europe, and the EU, in flux, it makes sense for the UK, having left the EU, to keep its options open. The crucial advantage of membership of the EEA and Efta is that it would put us in a strong position in Europe’s outer ring.

Updated

Sheryll Murray, a Conservative Brexiter, says she has written to Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, calling for a confidence vote.

Updated

The conventional wisdom at Westminster is that Brexiter Tory MPs have nowhere near the numbers they need (158) to defeat Theresa May in a confidence vote. But ITV’s Robert Peston thinks the anti-May vote would be higher than expected.

Updated

So what does the ongoing crisis about Theresa May’s Brexit deal mean for the prospects of a second independence referendum in Scotland? Nicola Sturgeon had been due to update her party on her plans for a second referendum this autumn – but autumn is turning into winter and the most recent form of words, used at SNP conference last month, was that she must wait until after “the fog of Brexit” had cleared.

At FMQs this lunchtime, Sturgeon insisted that Brexit makes the case for independence grow stronger every day, and she certainly appeared to suggest she’d offer an update to Holyrood after the meaningful vote in the Commons

At the post-FMQs briefing, her spokesperson reiterated that the first minister would only be able to offer an update when there was more clarity around the Brexit deal, the indications being that this would happen within weeks rather than months, “at some point when the smoke clears”. Whether this was foggy smoke, or smokey fog ... well, that wasn’t clear at all.

Beyond Holyrood, and despite concerns raised for the future of the union by Dominic Raab, Esther McVey, David Mundell et al, SNP strategists must surely be assessing whether the unfairness of the Northern Ireland deal can be used to bring more voters across to independence. Remember that polling consistently shows that appetite amongst the Scottish public for another referendum remains low.

Here is the anti-Brexit supporter Steve Bray, who regularly stands outside the House of Parliament. He was the person heckling during Jacob Rees-Mogg’s al fresco press conference.

Anti-Brexit supporter Steve Bray.
Anti-Brexit supporter Steve Bray. Photograph: Matt Dunham/AP

Here is Sky’s Tom Boadle on what Westminster broadcasters make of Bray.

UPDATE: Here is an example of the point Boadle is making.

Updated

The Lib Dem MP Stephen Lloyd has said he will vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal, the BBC’’s Ben Weisz reports.

Early afternoon summary

Here is the state of play as things stand now.

  • Theresa May has lost two of her Brexiter cabinet ministers after Dominic Raab, the Brexit secretary, and Esther McVey, the work and pensions secretary, resigned because they cannot support the government’s Brexit deal. In similar letters, they said that keeping the UK in a customs union with the EU would be a breach of trust, because it would break the promises made in the 2017 Conservative election manifesto. It is possible there could be more resignations, because some of the Brexiter cabinet ministers who spoke out at yesterday’s five-hour cabinet have yet to confirm whether or not they will stay. Two junior ministers and two parliamentary private secretaries have also resigned. (See 12.55am.)
  • May has spent three hours in the Commons listening to MPs from all sides rubbish her deal and predict that it will be voted down. A small number of Conservative MPs did support her, but there were more who were critical, and the opposition was overwhelmingly hostile too. Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, said the deal did not meet his party’s six tests. (See 10.46am.) Some MPs paid tribute to May’s good intentions, and May appeared relatively resilient at the despatch box, but she refused to say what would happen if the Commons does reject her plan. She defended the need to accept a backstop plan, and she said she shared MP’s “concerns” about the proposal. But she refused point-blank to contemplate the case for a second referendum, or extending article 50, saying repeatedly that the UK would leave the EU on 29 March. The Commons exchanges, combined with the resignations, have made it increasingly hard to see how May’s plan can survive. (See 9.42am.)
Jacob Rees Mogg speaking to reporters outside the Houses of Parliament.
Jacob Rees-Mogg speaks to reporters outside the Houses of Parliament. Photograph: Amer Ghazzal/Rex

Updated

This is from the BBC’s Norman Smith.

The Conservative MP Henry Smith has submitted his letter to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee, requesting a vote of no confidence in Theresa May. And he has tweeted a picture of his letter, which is a lot shorter than Jacob Rees-Mogg’s. (See 1.32pm.)

Speaking to Sky News, Dominic Raab said it was a “terrible deal” and urged May to change course. He said:

I felt the proposed deal with the EU suffered two fatal flaws. The first one is the rather predatory terms being proposed by the EU, which I feel would threaten the integrity of the United Kingdom.

Secondly, in relation to the so-called backstop, basically what that would do is indefinitely if not permanently lock us in to a regime which I believe would be damaging to the economy but devastating to public trust in our democracy.

Raab said he did not blame May for taking over the process, describing it as ”always a team effort”.

Leadsom tells MPs she's not resigning

Andrea Leadsom, the Brexiter leader of the Commons, has just told MPs she will not be resigning over Theresa May’s deal.

Updated

On Sky News Rory Stewart, the justice minister, is now defending Theresa May’s Brexit plan. Hopefully he will make a better job of it than he did when he was on Radio 5 Live earlier, and went full Donald Trump, making up a statistic to try to prove the deal is popular.

Labour claims this is a breach of the ministerial code.

Updated

The Rees-Mogg press conference is over.

Rees-Mogg says a leadership contest could happen quickly, in weeks rather than months. He says CCHQ now has a central list of members, which should speed things up.

Updated

Rees-Mogg says we are a democracy. “That’s why these splendid people can shout away,” he says.

Rees-Mogg says, if 48 letters do not go in, that will not be good for him. It is not much good if you lead and no one follows, he says.

He predicts that 48 letters will go in – but not necessarily today.

Updated

Rees-Mogg says the government should go back to Brussels and tell them that the UK will leave without a deal, and trade on WTO terms.

It would be sensible to make “a generous offer” to the EU, including on the rights of EU nationals and money in return for a transition deal.

Rees-Mogg says the Brexit negotiations were being run by Downing Street, not by Dominic Raab.

The UK did not ask the right things, he says.

Rees-Mogg says all the negative predictions about Brexit have not come to pass.

It is hard to hear him because a protester is shouting in the background.

Rees-Mogg says there are “streams of talent” in the Conservative party, and plenty of people who could be leader. He names a series of Brexiters, including Boris Johnson and David Davis.

Updated

Rees-Mogg goes on: “This is nothing to do with personal ambition.”

But he does say it is about ambition for fulfilling Brexit.

Q: Are you offering yourself as leader?

No, says Rees-Mogg.

Jacob Rees-Mogg speaks to the media
Jacob Rees-Mogg speaks to the media. Photograph: Matt Dunham/AP

Updated

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the ERG chair, is speaking to reporters at St Stephen’s entrance outside the Houses of Parliament now.

He says he is using the proper procedures of the party to get rid of Theresa May.

Q: Is this a coup?

No, says Rees-Mogg. A coup is when you use improper procedures.

He criticises the Brexit plan, using the arguments set out in his letter (see 1.32pm), and saying the deal contradicts what was promised in the Tory election manifesto.

Updated

According to the Evening Standard, edited by the former Tory chancellor George Osborne, Michael Gove has turned down an offer to replace Dominic Raab as Brexit secretary.

Text of Rees-Mogg's letter demanding no confidence vote in Theresa May

Jaocb Rees-Mogg, the chair of the ERG, has released the text of of the letter he has sent to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, calling for a no confidence vote in Theresa May. Here it is in full.

He reveals that a few weeks ago he told the chief whip, Julian Smith, that he thought Theresa May should step down.

(He also wins a bonus point for use of the word “contradistinction”.)

A few weeks ago, in a conversation with the chief whip I expressed my concern that the prime minister, Mrs. Theresa May, was losing the confidence of Conservative members of parliament and that it would be in the interest of the party and the country if she were to stand aside. I have wanted to avoid the disagreeable nature of a formal vote of no confidence with all the ill will that this risks engendering.

Regrettably, the draft withdrawal agreement presented to parliament today has turned out to be worse than anticipated and fails to meet the promises given to the nation by the prime minister, either on her own account or on behalf of us all in the Conservative party manifesto.

That the Conservative and Unionist party is proposing a protocol which would create a different regulatory environment for an integral part of our country stands in contradistinction to our long-held principles. It is in opposition to the prime minister’s clear statements that this was something that no prime minister would ever do and raises questions in relation to Scotland that are open to exploitation by the Scottish National Party.

The 2017 election manifesto said that the United Kingdom would leave the customs union. It did not qualify this statement by saying that we could stay in it via a backstop while annex 2, Article 3 explicitly says that we would have no authority to set our own tariffs. It is also harder to leave this backstop than it is to leave the EU, there is no provision equivalent to article 50 of the Lisbon treaty.

The prime minister also promised an implementation period which was the reason for paying £39bn. As was made clear by a House of Lords report in March 2017 there is no legal obligation to pay anything. This has now become an extended period of negotiation which is a different matter.

The situation as regards the European court of justice appears to have wandered from the clear statement that we are taking back control of our laws. Article 174 makes this clear as does article 89 in conjunction with article 4.

It is of considerable importance that politicians stick to their commitments or do not make such commitments in the first place. Regrettably, this is not the situation, therefore, in accordance with the relevant rules and procedures of the Conservative party and the 1922 committee this is a formal letter of no confidence in the leader of the party, the Rt. Hon. Theresa May.

I am copying this letter to the prime minister and the chief whip and although I understand that it is possible for the correspondence to remain confidential I shall be making it public.

These are from Sky’s Kate McCann.

In the Commons Labour’s Catherine West asked May why Julian Smith, the chief whip, would be meeting Sir Graham Brady. John Bercow, the speaker, said the question was not relevant to the subject of the statement, and May did not have to reply.

May has now finished – after three hours.

Updated

Outside the room where the ERG has been meeting, parliament’s committee room 10 (see 1.11pm), Alistair Burt, the pro-European Foreign Office minister, expressed fury at the scenes inside. “We are working our socks off and they are doing everything they can to detonate it,” he said.

Another Eurosceptic former minister leaving the meeting said there was considerable difference of opinion in the room. “If this coup d’etat succeeds, what happens then? The best way to defeat this deal is to defeat it in parliament, in my view.”

Updated

The European Research Group (ERG) has been meeting. Not all its members agree with Jacob Rees-Mogg (see 1.07pm) about a no-confidence vote in Theresa May being a good idea.

These are from ITV’s Joe Pike and Business Insider’s Adam Bienkov.

Updated

Rees-Mogg calls for no confidence vote in Theresa May

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the European Research Group, which represents about 50 Tories pushing for a harder Brexit, is submitting a letter to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the 1922 Committee, requesting a no confidence vote in Theresa May, my colleague Heather Stewart reports.

Rees-Mogg is due to speak to reporters shortly.

Updated

Dominic Raab, who resigned this morning, has suggested he retains confidence in Theresa May as prime minister, despite rejecting her approach to Brexit. He told the BBC:

I think she needs a Brexit secretary that will pursue the deal that she wants to put to the country with conviction. I don’t feel I can do that in good conscience. But I respect her, I hold her in high esteem, I think she should continue, but I do think we need to change course on Brexit.

Updated

Theresa May’s official spokesman said the PM expected still to be in post by the time the UK left the EU – and would fight any leadership challenge. He confirmed May had spoken to Dominic Raab by phone before the former Brexit secretary announced his resignation.

“We’re having to confront some very difficult issues and she doesn’t shy away from that,” he acknowledged.

Obviously given the difficulties of the issues, she respects the integrity of her colleagues and thanks those who have resigned for their service.

At the same time, whatever their criticisms, the PM is absolutely clear that the withdrawal agreement delivers what the people of this country voted for in 2016.

Updated

May is still answering questions in the Commons. She has just told MPs that, if the UK were to be held in the backstop, there would be no specific obligation on the UK.

Sturgeon says Tory government is 'imploding'

At first minister’s Questions in the Scottish parliament, the debate immediately turns to Brexit. The proposed deal will place Scotland at a real competitive disadvantage to Northern Ireland, says Nicola Sturgeon. “This is not an academic or abstract argument but has real consequences for jobs and living standards in Scotland”.

Sturgeon goes on the highlight the letter that Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson (now on maternity leave) and Scottish secretary David Mundell wrote to May a few weeks ago, warning that “any deal that threatens the integrity of the UK’s internal market” was a resignation issue for them. Where is David Mundell now, she asks. Does he have the principle to resign? Both Dominic Raab and Esther McVey have warned that that the deal is a real threat to the integrity of the UK, she says.

The Tory government is imploding as we speak, people the length and breadth of the UK are seriously worried about their jobs and their living standards on the line because of the ideology of this Tory government and the complete shambles they have made of the negotiations.

The first minister reserves some of her ire for Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard. He asks if she backs a general election. She replies:

I think it’s reasonable to say that the SNP made it clear that SNP MPs would vote against this deal. I hope that no party in the Commons falls for the prime minister’s spin that it is a bad deal or no deal. But if [the deal is voted down] what exactly would Labour do on Brexit that is different to what Theresa May is doing, because I do not have a clue!

Sturgeon says that Brexit makes the case for independence grow stronger every day although – as usual - she won’t be drawn on timing of another referendum. “That time will come and when it does I have no doubt that the people of Scotland will choose to be independent.”

Nicola Sturgeon at first minister’s questions
Nicola Sturgeon at first minister’s questions Photograph: Andrew MacColl/REX/Shutterstock

Full list of today's resignations

Here is the tally of resignations we’ve had so far today.

Four ministers have resigned, and two parliamentary private secretaries (PPSs - unpaid ministerial bag carriers, who are not members of the government but who are expected to support the government in all votes)

All of these MPs voted leave apart from Shailesh Vara, who voted remain.

Cabinet

Dominic Raab, Brexit secretary

Esther McVey, work and pensions secretary

Junior ministers

Suella Braverman, Brexit minister

Shailesh Vara, Northern Ireland minister

PPSs

Ranil Jayawardena, MoJ PPS

Anne-Marie Trevelyan, education PPS

As the Evening Standard reports, Nikki Da Costa, director of legislative affairs in Downing Street (an official, not an MP) has also resigned.

Updated

Another Conservative MP has resigned as a parliamentary private secretary (PPS) over the Brexit deal. This is from Ranil Jayawardena, who was a PPS at the Ministry of Justice.

Updated

The Lib Dem Alistair Carmichael asks if May can give an assurance that EU fishermen will not be given guarantees about access to UK waters as part of a future trade deal.

May says the UK will be an independent coastal state, and will take its own decisions about access to its waters.

Bob Neill, a Conservative, says MPs who vote against May’s deal should carefully consider the impact it would have on their constituencies.

Updated

Labour’s Chris Bryant says there is no majority for May’s plan in the Commons. There is a time problem. Hundreds of statutory instruments need to be passed. Why not have a vote now, so if she loses, there is time for an alternative approach?

May rejects this proposal.

Labour’s Rachael Maskell asks May if she will extend article 50 so negotiations can continue if the Commons votes against the deal.

May says she will not extend article 50.

The Telegraph’s Steven Swinford claims that Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has been offered the post of Brexit secretary.

And Graham Brady is saying that no announcement is planned, the BBC says.

Updated

Labour’s Stella Creasy says only seven MPs within the last two hours have expressed any support for the PM’s plan. What makes May think she will be able get it through the Commons?

May says the deal will be good for the UK.

This is from the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman.

Sir Graham Brady is chair of the backbench 1922 Committee. He is the one who gets the letters demanding a vote of no confidence, and the person who is responsible for announcing if 48 letters have been received - the threshold needed for a vote to go ahead.

Updated

Sir Ed Davey, the Lib Dem MP, asks if the immigration white paper will be published before the meaningful vote.

May says it will be published “in due course”.

Updated

Raab's resignation prompted by leadership ambitions, claims Scottish secretary David Mundell

The Scotland secretary, David Mundell, had a brutal response to Dominic Raab’s resignation, saying he though the Brexit secretary had mainly quit to further his own ambitions.

“I’m not taking lessons on standing up for our United Kingdom from carpetbaggers,” Mundell told ITV.

Only a couple of years ago Dominic Raab was proposing to introduce a bill of rights into Scotland which would have overridden the Scottish legal system and devolution.

So I’m not impressed by his latter-day commitment to the union. I’m sure this is more about manoeuvring and leadership.

Brexiter Tory MP Andrew Bridgen says May should quit

Andrew Bridgen, the Tory Brexiter, suggests the deal is too pro-EU. He says May voted for remain. Now it is “in the national interest for her to leave”, he says.

  • Brexiter Tory MP Andrew Bridgen says May should quit.

May says some of the aspects of Bridgen’s question did not relate to the deal.

Updated

John Bercow, the Speaker, says he has now taken 50 questions from backbenchers. He appeals for short questions.

Updated

Nick Herbert, a Conservative, says the key point is the future relationship with the EU. He says most MPs voted to trigger article 50. Tory MPs should be careful what they wish for, he says.

May thanks Herbert for what he said. The future relationship is what will determine the country’s relationship with the EU for years ahead, she says.

Labour’s Mary Creagh says May is offering people a false choice, and she calls for a people’s vote. May says she has already addressed this.

Labour’s David Lammy says the deal will not get through parliament. When politics is broken, one can only put the decision back to the people, he says.

May says, when she talks to people, they tell her they just want the politicians to get on with it.

These are from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

Updated

Kate Hoey, the Labour Brexiter, says everyone is being “sold out” by this deal, particularly the people of Northern Ireland. May does not accept that.

Labour’s Luciana Berger says the deal is not in the national interest. A YouGov poll shows 63% of people opposed, and 64% in favour of a people’s vote.

May suggests she is surprised, since the 500-page text of the deal was only published last night.

Julian Lewis, the Tory Brexiter, says he is worried about a “Hotel California” Brexit where the UK can never leave.

The Labour MP Barry Sheerman says May is a woman of courage who has been let down by her colleagues. He says she has an impossible task, because no Brexit deal is better than the status quo.

Antoinette Sandbach, a Tory pro-European, asks when the full text of the future framework will be published.

May says this has to be negotiated with the EU. Once that is over, it will be published, before the meaningful vote.

Tom Brake, the Lib Dem Brexit spokesman, says May referred to staying in the EU being an option. That would only happen if there was an election or a second referendum. So which is it?

May ignores the question, and says the UK will not be isolated after Brexit.

The Tory Brexiter Peter Bone says the government will give £39bn to the EU, when it has no legal obligation to do so, for nothing in return. That amounts to £60m for every constituency. He lists some things in his constituency that that money could be spend on.

May says she does not agree. She says the UK does have legal obligations.

Sarah Wollaston, the Conservative remain supporter, says we are running out of road. Crashing out of the EU with no deal would be “unforgivable”, she says. She urges May to consider a second referendum.

May says she firmly believes, that having given that choice to the British people, MPs must honour what the people voted for.

Updated

Stephen Crabb, the Tory former work and pensions secretary, says there was always going on to be a moment when Brexit claims met reality. He says it would be irresponsible to walk away. The government must make the best of this situation, he says.

Labour’s Phil Wilson asks May if she can say, “hand on heart”, that this deal is better than what the UK has now.

May says she firmly believes the UK’s best days are ahead.

UPDATE: This is from Labour’s Pat McFadden.

Updated

Sir Edward Leigh, a Tory Brexiter, asks what happens if Dominic Raab is correct. What happens if May loses the vote in the Commons. Will May deliver Brexit whatever?

May says she is determined that the UK will leave the EU on 29 March, “whatever happens in between”.

Caroline Lucas, the Green MP, says May should agree a people’s vote. May says she has already explained why she won’t.

Nicholas Soames, the Tory former defence minister, asks May to elaborate on the proposals on security. May says, where it makes sense to do so, the UK will cooperate with with EU on defence matters. And on sanctions too.

Frank Field, the former Labour MP who now sits as an independent, asks if the UK will be completely independent under this plan. May tries to give those assurances.

Amber Rudd, the Conservative former home secretary, asks May what response she has had from business to the plan.

(That was a helplful question, so we can probably chalk Rudd up as the third MP to speak out in support.)

May quotes positive business reaction.

This is from Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt.

Updated

Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister and ERG vice chair, says this backstop is “completely intolerable”. MPs will not vote for it. So will May trigger all no-deal planning now?

May says MPs will get to vote on the deal, but the government is continuing no-deal planning too.

Updated

Nicky Morgan, the Tory pro-European who was sacked by May as education secretary, says backing the deal would be in the national interest. May welcomes her comments.

Updated

Labour’s Ben Bradshaw asks if it is true that Theresa May, when she was home secretary, told the security services not to investigate Arron Banks.

May says she cannot comment on security matters.

84 Tory MPs planning to vote against May's deal, says leading ERG Brexiter

Mark Francois, a Tory Brexiter and a member of the European Research Group, says there are 84 Tories who will vote against the deal, and the numbers are rising. The agreement was “dead on arrival”, he says. He urges May to accept the political reality.

The prime minister says when a deal gets brought back it will be for MPs to consider it, and their duty to deliver on the vote of the British people.

Updated

Labour’s Angela Eagle says May’s fatal mistake has been to kowtow to Brexit extremists who made promises that were undeliverable.

May says she has kowtowed to no one.

At last. An MP has defended May and her deal. Sir Peter Bottomley, a Conservative, said the agreement was the best available.

Updated

Rees-Mogg tells May he can see case for no confidence vote

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter, says May said the UK would leave the customs union, protect the integrity of the UK and take the UK out of the jurisdiction of the European court of justice. But the deal does not do these things. As what May says and what she does “no longer match”, should he write to Graham Brady (chair of the backbench 1922 Committee)?

May says in the future relationship the UK will no longer be in the customs union or single market, the integrity of the UK will have been maintained, and the jurisdiction of the ECJ will be ended. She will deliver on her commitments, she says.

Updated

Labour’s Chris Leslie says not a single MP has yet spoken up in favour of May’s plan. May says remaining in the EU is an option. How can that be achieved?

May says she said there was a risk of no Brexit. But the government is determined to deliver on leaving the EU.

Justine Greening, the Tory former education secretary, says if it was acceptable to have a referendum before, why not again?

May says there was an overwhelming vote in parliament to have a referendum. People voted in that in huge numbers. She says she has seen the EU before ask people to vote again when they vote against the EU, a “go back and think again” vote. That would be wrong, she says.

Yvette Cooper, the Labour chair of the home affairs committee, says the political declaration does not mention the European arrest warrant or the SIS II information exchange system.

May says the government wants an arrangement covering arrests. And she says SIS II will be taken forward in further negotiations.

Updated

Sir Bill Cash, the Tory Brexiter, says the deal amounts to broken promises and abject capitulation to the EU. The EU will continue to control UK laws after this, he says.

May says the EU will not control UK laws in future.

She says she recognises the concerns Cash raises. But she wants to implement the referendum result in a way that protects jobs, she says.

Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Brexit committee, says the UK will remain in the customs union under this plan. Will May admit to the British people that that is in the national interest?

May says what is in the national interest is having a good trading partnership with the EU.

Anna Soubry, the Conservative pro-European, says May cannot honour the promises made by Brexiters because those cannot be met. She asks May to not rule out a second referendum.

May says she cannot give that assurance. The UK will leave the EU on 29 March next year, she says.

Updated

DUP leader Nigel Dodds accuses May for reneging on promises and backing plan that would break up UK

Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader, says he could take May through the promises she made in public, and private, to his party. But it would be a waste of time because “she clearly doesn’t listen”. He says the five people who have resigned today have all said May’s deal would compromise the integrity of the UK. We can either vote to protect the UK. Or vote for a vassal state that will break it up, he says.

May says her commitments to Northern Ireland remain.

She says neither side want to see the backstop exercised.

She says she does not accept that she has not considered Northern Ireland in this process. (Dodds signals to her he is not saying that.)

Updated

John Redwood, the Tory Brexiter, says the UK should spend the £39bn on itself, rather than on the EU.

May says the government continues to meet its legal obligations.

Sir Vince Cable, the Lib Dem leader, says that May herself said there were two alternatives to her plan: a no-deal Brexit, and no Brexit. What plans is May making for no Brexit, including asking if article 50 could be revoked.

May says the government is not planning for no Brexit.

Updated

Ian Duncan Smith, the Tory former leader, says he has deep misgivings about this plan. We have the sovereign right to leave bodies like Nato and the UN, but not to leave the backstop under this plan.

May says she shares Duncan Smith’s concerns. But the withdrawal agreement had to have an Irish backstop.

The backstop is “not necessarily what would happen”, she says. She says the UK could choose to extend the transition (she calls it implementation period) instead.

She accepts that coming out of the backstop would require “mutual consent”. She says: “I won’t make any bones about that.”

She insists it is her intention to work to ensure that such an arrangement is not necessary.

Responding to Blackford, May says the reason Scotland is treated differently from Northern Ireland is because Northern Ireland will be the only part of the UK that will have a land border with the EU after Brexit.

And Scotland is not mentioned because it is part of the United Kingdom, she says.

From the Labour MP Mary Creagh

This is from CityAM’s Owen Bennett (who is writing a biography of Michael Gove.)

Ian Blackford, the SNP’s leader at Westminser, says to lose two Brexit secretaries in six months is chaotic. He says that May looks desperate and defeated.

Scotland is not even mentioned in the document, he says. Yet there are 100 references to Northern Ireland, and references to Gibraltar and the Isle of Man too. If Northern Ireland can stay in the single market, why not Scotland too? He says May is ignoring the democratic desires of Scotland.

Updated

Ken Clarke, the Conservative pro-European, asks May if she agrees that the main benefits from EU membership have come from having a completely open border. So will she agree not to give that up until we know what we are changing to?

May says the UK has heard from business the importance of frictionless borders. That is why the future plan is based on that.

Updated

May is responding to Corbyn.

She says the government is planning for no deal.

She says there are 500 pages of legal text. It is not ill-defined.

She says the political declaration does refer to the plan to create a free trade area between the UK and the EU.

And Corbyn said there were no references to extradition in the document, she says. But she does not know what he read. There are references to extradition. And Corbyn was also wrong to say Europol was not mentioned. The document says the UK does want to continue with that, she says.

Corbyn says there is no clarity about a future immigration strategy.

After the Windrush scandal, EU nationals living in the UK need certainty.

He says parliament should not accept a false choice between no deal and this deal.

The government should withdraw this “half-baked deal” that does not have the backing of the cabinet, parliament or the country as a whole.

Corbyn asks May to confirm that the UK would not be able to leave the backstop unilaterally.

He says rules committing the UK to maintaining EU state aid regulations are baked in. But there are no equivalent guarantees on worker rights, he says.

He says after two years of negotiations all the government has agreed is a vague, seven-page document on the future. There is no determination in it to negotiate frictionless trade, or trade as frictionless as possible, he says.

Corbyn says May’s Brexit deal does not meet Labour’s six tests

Jeremy Corbyn is speaking now. He says May’s plan represents a huge and damaging failure and does not meet Labour’s six tests.

The withdrawal agreement and the outline political declaration represent a huge and damaging failure … and I will comment on both in turn …

After two years of bungled negotiations … the government has produced a botched deal that breaches the prime minister’s own red lines … and does not meet our six tests …

The government is in chaos … Their deal risks leaving the country in an indefinite halfway house without a real say.

When even the Brexit Secretary … who … theoretically at least … negotiated the deal says … “I cannot support the proposed deal” … what faith does that give anyone else … in this place or in the country?

  • Corbyn says May’s Brexit deal does not meet Labour’s six tests.

The government is “in chaos”, he says.

He says, if Dominic Raab cannot support the deal, MPs cannot back it either.

No deal is not an option, he says.

He says the government must publish its legal advice on the deal, and the OBR should revise its economic forecasts.

He claims there is no mention of an “implementation” period in the deal.

The deal says the transition could be extended to “20XX”. Does that mean it could run to 2099?

Updated

May says, when she became PM, there was no plan for Brexit.

  • May implicitly criticises the Cameron government for not having a plan for Brexit.

Some people said it could not be done. She did not accept that, she says.

She says it has been a frustrating process. It has forced the UK to confront difficult issues.

Once a final deal is agreed, she will come to parliament and ask MPs to back it in the national interest.

May says the choice is clear. We can choose to leave with no deal, or have no Brexit at all ....

That generates loud cheering from some MPs.

Or we can choose this deal, says May.

She says she is delivering for the British people and doing what is in the national interest.

May is now on the outline future partnership.

Free movement will end once and for all, she says.

She says no other advanced economy has such good access to the EU for goods.

And there are commitments on services that go well beyond WTO requirements.

The UK will leave the common agricultural policy and the common fisheries policy, she says.

There is a close and flexible partnership on defence and security.

May says some people urged her to rip up the backstop.

But that would have been irresponsible, and it would have meant reneging on promises made to the people of Northern Ireland.

May defends Irish backstop plan

May is taking MPs through the details.

She says the withdrawal detail shows how the UK will leave the EU in 134 days’ time.

She says she thinks the Irish border issue will best be solved through the future relationship.

But the withdrawal agreement includes a backstop. This has not been “a comfortable process”, she says. Neither the UK nor the EU are totally happy with it.

But, she says, any deal would have to have a backstop. It would not be possible to have an alternative, like Canada plus plus plus, without it.

She says the EU has made concessions.

First, the plan for the Northern Ireland-only backstop has been dropped.

Second, the transition could be extended as an alternative to the backstop.

Third, the plan commits both parties to use “best endeavours” to ensure this is not used. And if the backstop is used, it will be temporary. There will be a mechanism for ending it.

Finally, Northern Ireland businesses will have full access to the UK single market.

Updated

Theresa May's Commons statement

Theresa May is making her Commons statement on the Brexit deal now.

We may be here for a while. John Bercow, the Speaker, always lets statements of this kind run, and interest in this one is enormous. I wouldn’t be surprised if it runs for up to three hours.

Updated

Anne-Marie Trevelyan has resigned as a parliamentary private secretary.

My colleague Jesssica Elgot is tipping Michael Gove, the environment secretary, as a possible replacement for Dominic Raab as Brexit secretary.

The case for Gove is that he is most heavyweight Brexiter left standing in cabinet following the resignations of David Davis, Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab. He is also a minister with a reputation for executive effectiveness. And if anyone could sell a Brexit plan to the ERG, it would be him.

He was also, reportedly, the only Brexiter who backed the plan at yesterday’s cabinet.

The case against Gove is that Theresa May doesn’t trust him an inch, on the understandable grounds that in the past he has already betrayed two senior Tories to whom he was very close (David Cameron and then Boris Johnson.)

If Gove were to get the job, it is conceivable that he could demand changes to the government’s Brexit strategy. Gove has in the past argued that Brexiters should focus on getting the UK out of the EU, with a view to hardening up Brexit later. And his close ally Nick Boles has been pushing the “Norway for Now” option – staying in the European Economic Area, with a view to perhaps moving to a Canada-style trade deal later.

Updated

Junior Brexit minister Suella Braverman resigns

Suella Braverman, a junior Brexit minister, has resigned.

Braverman was chair of the European Research Group before she joined the government. When David Davis and Steve Baker resigned from the Brexit department over the Chequers plans, for a while there were reports that she was going too. But on that occasion she was persuaded to stay.

These are from the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg.

Here is an extract from Esther McVey’s resignation letter.

The proposals put before cabinet, which will soon be judged by the entire country, mean handing over around £39bn to the EU without anything in return. It will trap us in a customs union, despite you specifically promising the British people we would not be. It will bind the hands of not only this, but future governments in pursuing genuine free trade policies. We wouldn’t be taking back control, we would be handing over control to the EU and even to a third country for arbitration ...

We have gone from no deal is better than a bad deal, to any deal is better than no deal.

Esther McVey leaving her home in London this morning.
Esther McVey leaving her home in London this morning. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Here is the text of McVey’s resignation.

Updated

Esther McVey follows Raab in resigning from cabinet over Brexit deal

This is from the Telegraph’s Steven Swinford.

Followed by this from the BBC.

Hancock refuses to deny telling cabinet no deal Brexit could lead to lives being lost

The health secretary, Matt Hancock, has admitted that the agreement is “not perfect” but claimed it is good for Britain.

Speaking on the Today programme minutes after Shailesh Vara resigned, but before Dominic Raab quit, he said:

In any negotiated agreement of course there are going to be details that are compromises and it is not perfect. Everyone can find a point in this that they may disagree with, but you have got to look at the deal as a whole. The cabinet as a whole backed the deal ... It is good for Britain.

Asked about reports that some ministers were crying in cabinet during Wednesday five-hour meeting, Hancock said:

I didn’t see any tears. There was an incredibly civil, and very open and frank discussion.

Hancock did not deny reports that he warned cabinet that lives could be lost if there no deal because of disruption to the supplies of vital medicines. He said:

I am not going to go into what anybody said, and that includes me. We need to make sure that everybody does what’s necessary, if there is no deal, to have the unhindered flow of medicines that people need. No deal is not pretty. It is very difficult for the economy and for lots of other areas like health care.

We are working very hard to ensure that people have the unhindered flow and access to medicines that they need. There is a lot of work to do that but I hope that by this deal we can avoid a no deal Brexit. We can avoid a second referendum and we can have a high quality future relationship with the EU and that’s what this deal provides.

Hancock added:

A second referendum would be divisive but it would not be decisive. And given all of he pain of the last few years in British politics and the angst that it has caused, a second referendum would be even worse.

From ITV’s Paul Brand

The Tory Brexiter Anne Marie Morris has just told the BBC that she believes more than 48 of her colleagues have already written to Sir Graham Brady, chair of the backbench 1922 committee, calling for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May. But some of those letters were written on the condition that they could not be activated until the author agreed, she said. She said the time had come for those MPs to now authorise the use of their letters.

She said she was calling for the removal of May because she thought that was necessary for Brexit to be delivered.

Raab's resignation - Snap analysis

Some cabinet resignations matter more than others. Over time we will find out quite how significant this one is, but it is quite conceivable that this could in time be seen as the move that sank Theresa May’s Brexit plan. Here are some snap thoughts.

1- Dominic Raab’s decision to resign as Brexit secretary is likely to encourage other Brexiter cabinet minsters to quit too. We don’t know yet if Brexiter cabinet ministers are coordinating their moves today, but we do know that around 11 ministers expressed strong reservations about the deal at yesterday’s cabinet and in politics there is a natural tendency not to allow yourself to be outflanked by people who share your views - particularly if you think there might be a party leadership contest coming at some point in the future where whether or not you supported May’s Brexit plan becomes the defining issue (just as where you stood on the Iraq war has been a defining issue in Labour contests since 2010.)

2 - Even at the best of times, this would be a very serious blow to May’s authority. Brexit secretary is a senior post, and May has now lost two of them within six months. She would have been relying on Raab to help sell her deal to MPs, and to help pave the way for the EU summit scheduled for Sunday 25 November. Now she hasn’t got someone doing that job at a time when it’s most necessary. (Presumably she will be wary about appointing a successor until she knows who else is going to resign.)

3 - But these are not the best of times, and Raab’s resignation is bound to embolden those MPs determined to vote down May’s plans. When David Davis, Raab’s predecessor, and Boris Johnson quit in July over the Chequers plan, their resignations could be used by May to persuade remain-voting Tories that she was moving in their direction. But the arguments that Raab is making (see 9.09am) are identical to those made by Jo Johnson, the remain-voting transport minister who resigned on Friday, and Shailesh Vara, the remain-voting Northern Ireland minister who quit earlier this morning. (See 7.53am.) May wanted to unite both wings of her party; she has - against her.

4 - The Raab resignation may also encourage those Brexiter Tories who are mulling over whether or not to submit letters demanding a vote of no confidence in May. A vote will be held if 48 letters get received. It is very possible that May would win such a vote, because there is no alternative leader with general support in the party. It is also worth pointing out that Raab’s letter was not intended to provoke such a vote; in it, he made a point of saying his respect for May and her fortitude “remains undimmed”.

5- Will the Brexit vote event take place? Some reports have suggested that the Commons vote on May’s Brexit deal will be tight, or on a knife-edge. That is not correct. Judging by what people are saying currently, the vote looks very one-sided, with May set to lose heavily. It is impossible to know how events will pan out, but governments tend not to schedule votes when they know they are bound to lose, and so some sort of reset is not wholly inconceivable.

Dominic Raab leaving Number 10 yesterdy.
Dominic Raab leaving Number 10 yesterday. Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

Updated

Labour has put out this response to Dominic Raab’s resignation from Jon Trickett, the shadow minister for the Cabinet Office. Trickett said:

The government is falling apart before our eyes as for a second time the Brexit secretary has refused to back the prime minister’s Brexit plan. This so-called deal has unravelled before our eyes.

This is the twentieth Minister to resign from Theresa May’s government in her two year premiership. Theresa May has no authority left and is clearly incapable of delivering a Brexit deal that commands even the support of her cabinet - let alone parliament and the people of our country.

Iain Duncan Smith, a leading Tory Brexiter and former party party leader, has just told BBC News that the impact of Raab’s resignation will be “devastating”. He says that Raab’s letter suggests that, within government, he has been ignored.

Full text of Raab's resignation letter

And here is the full text of Raab’s resignation letter.

Dear Prime Minister,

It has been an honour to serve in your government as justice minister, housing minister and Brexit secretary.

I regret to say that, following the cabinet meeting yesterday on the Brexit deal. I must resign. I understand why you have chosen to pursue the deal with the EU on the terms proposed, and I respect the different views held in good faith by all of our colleagues.

For my part, I cannot support the proposed deal for two reasons. First I believe that the regulatory regime proposed for Northern Ireland presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom.

Second, I cannot support an indefinite backstop arrangement, where the EU holds a veto over our ability to exit. The terms of the backstop amount to a hybrid of the EU customs union and single market obligations. No democratic nation has ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime, imposed externally without any democratic control over the laws to be applied, nor the ability to decide to exit the arrangement. That arrangement is now also taken as the starting point for negotiating the future economic partnership. If we accept that, it will severely prejudice the second phase of negotiations against the UK.

Above all, I cannot reconcile the terms of the proposed deal with the promises we made to the country in our manifesto at the last election. This is, at its heart, a matter of public trust.

I appreciate that you disagree with my judgment on these issues. I have weighed very carefully the alternative courses of action which the government could take, on which I have previously advised. Ultimately, you deserve a Brexit secretary who can make the case for the deal you are pursuing with conviction. I am only sorry, in good conscience, that I cannot.

My respect for you and the fortitude you have shown in difficult times, remains undimmed.

Yours sincerely

Dominic Raab

Why Raab quit

Here is the key extract from Dominic Raab’s resignation letter.

For my part, I cannot support the proposed deal for two reasons. First, I believe that the regulatory regime proposed for Northern Ireland presents a very real threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom.

Second, I cannot support an indefinite backstop arrangement, where the EU holds a veto over our ability to exit. The terms of the backstop amount to a hybrid of the EU customs union and single market obligations. No democratic nation has ever signed up to be bound by such an extensive regime, imposed externally without any democratic control over the laws to be applied, nor the ability to decide the exit arrangement. That arrangement is now also taken as the starting point for negotiating the future economic partnership. If we accept that, it will severely prejudice the second phase of negotiations against the UK.

Above all, I cannot reconcile the terms of the proposed deal with the promises we madd to the country in our manifesto at the last election. This is, at its heart, a matter of public trust.

In the last few minutes, since news broke of Dominic Raab’s resignation, the pound has fallen sharply ... down more than 1% against the euro and the dollar - a big move. Against the euro it is now 1.1382 and against the dollar $1.2873. It was over $1.30 first thing this morning.

Dominic Raab resigns as Brexit secretary

Dominic Raab has resigned as Brexit secretary.

Shailesh Vara said he quit the government because the agreements binds the UK to a customs arrangement with the EU with no unilateral means of getting out.

Speaking to the Today programme he said: “For us to tie ourselves up to mechanism where we are not in control is not in the interest of the country. The people were given a choice and they voted for a sovereign, independent United Kingdom and this isn’t going to provide it.”

He added:

When the people voted in the referendum it was a very simple choice: in or out.

And this is a halfway house and we are going to be locked in for an indefinite period [to a] customs arrangement – an institution over which we will have no say and effectively be taking rules and regulations from the EU. And if we want to leave the customs arrangement then we can’t.

I don’t think that is an argument to say that we are going to be a sovereign nation if we can’t leave the customs arrangement on our own.

It is important that we have economic and constitution integrity throughout the four nations which make up the United Kingdom. But what this envisages is separate arrangements for Northern Ireland. I think it is important that we respect our constitution.

There is a way out where we can simply say we have had enough we’re out. We are locked into a process and procedure.

If you have to go through these mechanism then as a lawyer I say you have to put forward your argument, the other side will put forward their argument and one side is going to win and it may not be us that would win.

They are not keen on us leaving and we could be locked in for many many years. The EU have made absolutely clear that they prefer the slow approach, they have made it absolutely clear they don’t want us to leave.

Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Matthew Weaver.

According to the Press Association, Esther McVey, the Brexiter work and pensions secretary and one of those cabinet ministers most unhappy about the Brexit deal, would not answer questions as she left her flat in London this morning. “Thank you and good morning,” she told reporters.

McVey features prominently in the various insider accounts of what happened at yesterday’s cabinet. For example, this is from Sam Coates and Frances Elliott’s story (paywall) in the Times.

Ms McVey, one of the most ardent Brexiteers of the cabinet, demanded a vote during the meeting to force each minister to commit definitively one way or another to the draft Brexit deal.

Colleagues were unimpressed, with one describing her as “aggressive” and another describing a “massive row” which “got really fruity” with the minister pushing her point more than once.

Ms McVey was then shut down by Julian Smith, the chief whip, and Sir Mark Sedwill, the cabinet secretary.

Sir Mark “raised his voice” and “read out the cabinet manual to her” to remind her of the principles of collective cabinet responsibility. It is a moment some Brexiteers are unlikely to forget in a hurry.

Jack Blanchard has a good round-up of the best anecdotes about cabinet from today’s papers in his Politico Europe London Playbook briefing.

Esther McVey leaving her home in London this morning.
Esther McVey leaving her home in London this morning. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

The Irish government is backing the deal.

Scotland’s Brexit secretary Michael Russell will make a statement to Holyrood this afternoon, but speaking on BBC Scotland this morning he confirmed that SNP MPs would not support May’s Brexit deal in its current form.

He said that the SNP’s Westminster group were working closely with other opposition parties to examine other ways forward.

He described May’s current deal as “a mess of her making” and insisted that “no one should accept that its Theresa May’s way or no way at all”.

Echoing first minister Nicola Sturgeon’s comment last night, he said that the deal was “disastrous” for Scotland. “Even one detail of it, ending freedom of movement, is disastrous for every sector in Scotland”.

Russell also insisted that if Northern Ireland could have a continuing differentiated relationship with the EU then Scotland, which voted decisively to remain within Europe, should too: “If it can be done elsewhere it can be done in Scotland.”

The agreement has been available for 12 hours now and the DUP is still signalling that it will vote against. Lisa O’Carroll has this:

Shailesh Vara’s resignation is being backed by fellow Brexiters in the Tory party. This from Steve Baker.

And Zac Goldsmith said his resignation was “dignified and right”.

Similarly Priti Patel has this:

Updated

Barnier warns of long road ahead

EU Brexit chief negociator Michel Barnier shakes hands with European Council President Donald Tusk during a press conference at the European Council in Brussels.
EU Brexit chief negociator Michel Barnier shakes hands with European Council President Donald Tusk during a press conference at the European Council in Brussels. Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images

Barnier warned that there was “long road ahead”.

Speaking before Tusk he said: “This is a very important moment. What we have agreed at negotiators’ level is fair and balanced, takes into account the UK’s positions, organises the withdrawal in an orderly fashion, ensures no hard border on the island of Ireland and lays the ground for an ambitious new partnership.”

Barnier said that his team had “always followed the EU mandate scrupulously” and had achieved “decisive progress” together with the UK negotiators.

He added: “Our work is not finished. We still have a long road ahead of us on both sides.
“On my side, in the next few days we will all work on the text of the political declaration on the future relationship with the member states as well as with the European Parliament.

“This work will be intense. Our goal is to finalise this political declaration with the UK so that the European Council can endorse it.”

Tusk and Barnier took no questions from reporters after their brief statements. Barnier said he would now travel to Strasbourg to discuss the agreement with the European Parliament, adding: “We have no time to lose.”

And here’s the full text of Tusk’s statement setting out the timetable for what happens next.

I took good note of Prime Minister May’s statement yesterday. Of course, I don’t share the Prime Minister’s enthusiasm about Brexit as such. Since the very beginning, we have had no doubt that Brexit is a lose-lose situation, and that our negotiations are only about damage control.

Given these extremely difficult circumstances, I would like to thank Michel Barnier and his team, especially Sabine Weyand and Stéphanie Riso, for doing this exceptionally hard work. Michel, we all put a lot of trust in you, and rightly so. You have achieved our two most important objectives. First, you ensured the limitation of the damage caused by Brexit and, second, you secured the vital interests and principles of the 27 member states, and of the European Union as a whole. If I weren’t confident that you did your best to protect the interests of the twenty‑seven, and I am familiar with the essence of the document, I would not propose to formalise this deal.

In the next days, we will proceed as follows. The agreement is now being analysed by all the member states. By the end of this week, the EU27 ambassadors will meet in order to share their assessment of the agreement. I hope that there will not be too many comments. They will also discuss the mandate for the Commission to finalise the Joint Political Declaration about the future relations between the EU and the UK. The European ministers will be involved in this process. The Commission intends to agree the declaration about the future with the UK by Tuesday. Over the following 48 hours, the member states will have time to evaluate it, which means that the EU27 Sherpas should conclude this work on Thursday. Then, if nothing extraordinary happens, we will hold a European Council meeting, in order to finalise and formalise the Brexit agreement. It will take place on Sunday 25th November at 9:30.

Finally, let me say this to our British friends. As much as I am sad to see you leave, I will do everything to make this farewell the least painful possible, both for you and for us.

Matt Hancock
Matt Hancock Photograph: Jonathan Hordle/ITV/REX/Shutterstock

Health secretary Matt Hancock has been sent out to defend the deal in the broadcast studios.

He said all MPs should back the agreement because the alternatives to it are “ugly”.

Speaking to BBC Breakfast he said: “All MPs should vote for it because this deal is in the national interest.”

He added: “The two alternatives are deeply unattractive and as people read the detail of it and look at the deal in the round, rather than the bits and pieces that have come out in the newspapers during the latter stages of the negotiations, anybody in any compromise negotiated document can pick out individual parts that they would prefer were written differently.”

He also dismissed the prospect of a second referendum as “hugely divisive”.

Hancock said: “Why would people support the result of a second referendum when those who are proposing it are those who want to overturn the result of the first.”

Asked why the government was suddenly talking about no Brexit at all, Hancock said: “We have been clear all along that there is either no deal, or no Brexit, because of a second referendum, are alternatives to this approach. We don’t want that to be an option at all.”

He added: “A second referendum would just be so divisive for the country. I think people want us to get on with it. What people watching can know from this deal is that we deliver on the result of the referendum. We make sure that we take back control of our money and our laws and make sure that we end free movement of people. Yet we maintain a high quality trading relationship, which is why so many businesses have backed it.”

Vara, the Tory MP for North West Cambridgeshire, was promoted to his government post in July, having previously been a parliamentary private secretary in the Northern Ireland Office. He voted remain in the EU referendum.

In a statement posted on Twitter, he said:

We are a proud nation and it is a say day when we are reduced to obeying rules made by other countries who have shown that they do not have our best interests at heart.

We can and must do better than this. The people of the UK deserve better.

Updated

Northern Ireland minister Shailesh Vara quits government

Shailesh Vara
Shailesh Vara Photograph: David Levene for the Guardian

Shailesh Vara has resigned as Northern Ireland minister, saying he cannot support Theresa May’s Brexit agreement.

He said it “leaves the UK in a halfway house with no time limit on when we will finally be a sovereign nation”.

Updated

Tusk praised the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier for achieving the EU’s two most import objectives. “First you ensured the limitation of the damage caused by Brexit and second you secured the vital interest and principles of the 27 member states and of the European Union as a whole,” Tusk said with Barnier standing beside him.

Tusk also endorsed the deal. He said:

If I weren’t confident that you did your best to protect the interest of the 27, and I weren’t familiar of the essence of the document, I would not propose to formalise this deal.

And he expressed hope that the EU’s 27 member states would not make “too many comments” about the draft text.

He finished with a final message to the UK. “As much as I am sad to see you leave I will do everything to make this farewell the least painful possible for both for you and for us,” Tusk said.

EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier meets European Council President Tusk to hand over the Brexit draft text in Brussels
EU chief Brexit negotiator Barnier meets European Council President Tusk to hand over the Brexit draft text in Brussels Photograph: François Lenoir/Reuters

Updated

Tusk confirms November summit

European Council president Donald Tusk confirmed that EU summit will be held on 25 November to discuss the deal.

Speaking in Brussels he said:

We have always said Brexit is a lose-lose situation and these negotiations were always about damage control.

Updated

Not just one, but two vital meetings for the future of Britain’s relationship with the European Union took place on Wednesday afternoon in Westminster,” writes Martin Kettle.

“Wednesday’s cabinet meeting was a long-planned effort by No 10. Its aim was to bounce other ministers into agreement with the prime minister’s deal. The ministers didn’t get the chance to read the agreement fully. They were given individual briefings that flattered their self-importance. If the strategy succeeded – and most ministers bought in – it meant the Brexit deal would reach first base in the long process of ratification. It would also have momentum, making it harder to defeat. No 10 has shown some emotional intelligence this week alongside the political ruthlessness...

Meanwhile, Westminster’s second important meeting was going ahead under the radar. MPs have long been promised a “meaningful vote” on the package that May secured this week. Wednesday’s meeting of the Commons procedure committee will have done much to shape how that will work. At issue is whether parliament will have the tools and the will to take control of the Brexit decision and reshape it in the way the parliamentary numbers suggest is possible and that so many in and beyond Westminster want and expect it to do...

That question is whether, in its meaningful vote, parliament has the muscle to do anything more than approve or reject May’s deal. If May had a working majority, the answer would be pretty obvious – approval. But she doesn’t have a majority, so the outcome isn’t obvious, and the scope of the procedure to be followed is therefore crucial for the many who oppose May’s deal and no-deal alike.

His full analysis is here.

Labour MPs have launched a petition calling on Jeremy Corbyn to back a people’s vote on whether Brexit should continue.

The petition was launched by Angela Smith, Labour MP for Penistone and Stocksbrige, and has been shared by Chuka Umunna, Labour MP for Streatham.

The petition says:

Brexit in any form poses real harm to our country’s future. And with new dangers coming to light every day, we believe that MPs should give the public the final say, which must include an option to remain in the European Union.

We call on Labour’s Leader Jeremy Corbyn to back a People’s Vote on Brexit at the earliest opportunity -- and if he is successful in forcing a General Election then Labour’s manifesto must commit clearly to an immediate People’s Vote, in which Labour will campaign to remain.

Starmer says May's deal is 'failing all six' of Labour's tests for Brexit

Starmer is being pushed on whether Labour will refuse to back the deal. He says Labour always said it would read and assess the deal against its “six tests”.

“It’s failing all six of them,” he says. “We’ve always said we’re not prepared to back a bad deal, and why would you, it doesn’t meet our tests, it doesn’t tell you where you’re going.”

Starmer says May’s line that the choice is between this deal or no deal is a “threat” from the prime minister and he says that Labour does not accept this ultimatum. Many MPs, not just Labour MPs, will refuse to accept that they must agree to a deal they think is bad, out of fear of preventing something worse (a no-deal Brexit), says Starmer.

“There is an alternative,” he says, which is a deal that involves a comprehensive customs union and the UK staying in the single market.

Updated

Starmer says there isn’t much firm detail about the future relationship between the UK and the EU.

What it means is we haven’t negotiated anything about the future relationship that is serious enough to be committed to paper ... Give us enough detail to know where we’re heading.

Putting detail aside, even the ambition isn’t clear, says Starmer.

It doesn’t even have the ambition anymore of frictionless trade ... This must be the first proposed trade deal that makes trade more difficult, rather than easier.

Updated

Keir Starmer calls the agreement a 'miserable failure of negotiation'

Keir Starmer, shadow Brexit story is speaking to BBC 5Live now and he’s coming out all guns blazing.

We’ve read and analysed all 585 pages, it’s a miserable failure of negotiation.

He says there are pages and pages of detail about the backstop “which the government says it doesn’t intend to use.”

But for the future relationship, what it does intend, it’s seven pages, it’s vague in the extreme. And only three pages on the economic agreement.

We talk about blind Brexit. This about the blindest of blind agreements. This is much vaguer than a lot of the speeches the prime minister has given.

Updated

Kevin Connelly, the BBC’s European correspondent has just been on BBC 5Live, and has been talking about the 585-page draft agreement, which ministers voted on yesterday in that long cabinet meeting.

It’s like being given a Victorian novel and being given two hours to read it and then being asked what you think of individual characters and how you think the plot works.

Or when you take an update from iTunes and you’re given 35 pages of very dense language, and it’s 20 times that and written in similar language.

Updated

Some of the online headlines from Dutch news outlets feature Brexit today. (Do get in touch if your Dutch translation is better than Google Translate’s – as it inevitably will be if you actually speak Dutch.)

Algemeen Dagblad or AD, says: “Brexiteers critical: we pay billions get nothing back”, Daily newspaper NRC Handelsblad says “British cabinet does not unanimously agree with Brexitdeal”.

Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, is doing the rounds this morning to set out the Labour reaction to the Brexit deal. I’ll be listening and will bring you a summary of what he’s saying.

Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the Confederation of British Industry, is on the Today show at the moment and was on the phone call with the chancellor last night.

She says business leaders were relieved that the wording of the draft avoids a “cliff edge” for the UK.

She said the deal “was not perfect” and if there was any disappointment for the business community, it was that there was not as much certainty around achieving frictionless trade as they would have liked.

This gives a potential route forward. We can’t underestimate the benefits of coming back from the cliff edge for communities and businesses, but there’s a hard slog ahead.

Updated

A commenter has pointed out an omission in my previous post that analysed the numbers May might need to get the deal through parliament. As they noted, there was no mention of SNP. I apologise for that.

It seems unlikely that SNP MPs will support the deal, given Nicola Sturgeon’s comments yesterday. Last night she labelled the deal “bad for Scotland” and said it was like being “blackmailed into a choice between the frying pan or the fire”.

Sturgeon said that in a phone call with May, she rejected the prime minister’s assertion that Scotland’s interests had been protected in the deal.

I pointed out that there isn’t a single mention of Scotland in the agreement, that it disregards our interests and puts Scotland at a serious competitive disadvantage,” she said.

It is obvious that the Prime Minister can barely unite her Cabinet on this deal and it is also increasingly clear that she will struggle to get a majority for it in Parliament.

In these circumstances it is more important than ever that we are not faced with a false choice between a bad deal and no deal.

No-one should be effectively blackmailed into a choice between the frying pan or the fire.

This proposed deal would be a bad one for Scotland, taking us out of a single market eight times the size of the UK market alone and posing a huge threat to jobs, investment and living standards.

If this deal is indeed rejected by Parliament, then the UK Government must return to the negotiating table to secure a better one.

Our bottom line - short of continued EU membership - is continued, permanent membership of the single market and customs union.

If you’re tempted to read the draft withdrawal agreement in full – all 585 pages of it – you can do so here.

Let’s talk numbers.

One of the chief obstacles ahead for May if she is going to get her Brexit agreement through could be the House of Commons, where a simple majority of MPs will need to vote for the blueprint for the deal to be given the green light.

The magic number is 320, a majority of the 639 voting MPs in the Commons which excludes suspensions, the Speaker, three Deputy Speakers and seven Sinn Fein MPs who abstain from attending the UK Parliament.

The Parliament website lists 93 MPs who are ministers and would therefore be bound to support Theresa May’s Brexit plans owing to collective responsibility. There are others, such as loyalists to May and the government, who are expected to vote in favour of the deal, along with Brexiteer MPs who may have been spooked by the PM’s message that it was this deal, no deal or no Brexit.

On the other side of the debate, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru have said they are opposed to a deal so this adds 17 to the noes.

The Democratic Unionist Party’s stance on the Brexit deal is uncertain. Arlene Foster has said the Prime Minister is “fully aware of our position and concerns” over Northern Ireland being treated differently to the rest of the UK.

There is division within the Conservative party too, with the European Research Group, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, claiming it has 80 MPs ready to vote against what it sees as May’s capitulation to Brussels. Opponents suggest the number would be whittled down under a concerted offensive of arm-bending by the Tory whips, so it may finally be considerably less.

This means May could need to find up to 100 votes – but perhaps more realistically somewhat less – from elsewhere.

So the prime minister may well need to extend an olive branch to Labour, which also has its own divisions. The question is how many of Jeremy Corbyn’s MPs are prepared to defy him and support the Prime Minister, reasoning that a no-deal Brexit, which they fear could bring about an economic disaster, would be a worse outcome.

Updated

The front pages of the newspapers today are fairly varied, but the overwhelming majority are united in casting doubt on the prospects of the deal and the prime minister herself.

We’ve got a full wrap of how the papers (including some from Ireland, France and Germany) covered the day’s Brexit news.

But I’ve included a few for you below, including The Guardian:

Here’s the Sun, which wins for most punny (playing to their strengths) and is up there for most cranky.

The Daily Mail wins the prize for the newspaper that seems to feel most chipper about the day’s events.

The Telegraph also takes a stoic line, though don’t be fooled by the headline, they raise the prospect of a leadership challenge in the intro, and also give plenty of space to criticisms of the deal by Nick Timothy, the prime minister’s former chief of staff.

And, while they’re not a daily paper, and are obviously not going to be in favour of Brexit, The New European wins my award for most visually-striking front page, which carries the headline “May’s last gasp deal”.

Updated

Good morning and welcome to Politics live for today – the morning after the night before.

Yesterday, Theresa May held a five-hour cabinet meeting to discuss the draft of the withdrawal agreement that has been negotiated with the EU. She emerged somewhat victorious, announcing they had reached a “collective” decision to press ahead with finalising the deal in Brussels; but it was clear there had been significant dissent.

There are some key questions today, including whether any cabinet ministers will resign – reports say Esther McVey is on “resignation watch” – and whether the agreement will get the required support in parliament. May is due to speak to the House of Commons later today, and we’ll obviously be bringing you news of that as it happens.

I’m here to kick things off, before my esteemed colleagues take things over later in the morning. As usual, get in touch via the comments or on Twitter, I’m on @mskatelyons.

Thanks for reading.

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