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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Harry Taylor (now); Lucy Campbell and Andrew Sparrow (earlier)

Brexit deal: Boris Johnson says EU trade agreement resolves 'question that has bedevilled politics for decades' – as it happened

We’re closing the liveblog now after an eventful Christmas Eve, as Boris Johnson announced that the UK had struck a trade deal with the EU.

Thank you for following, and have a Merry Christmas, however you’re spending it.

Britain is heading into a new chapter in its relationship with the rest of Europe with Boris Johnson vowing to pit the country against the EU in a race for economic success.

After nine months of tortuous talks, a Brexit deal was secured at 1.44pm GMT on Christmas Eve, avoiding a no-deal exit from the transition period with just a week to go.

The deal was met with “relief tinged with some sadness” in Brussels. But it was said by Johnson to be the settlement of the vexed question of Britain’s relationship with Europe, 48 years since the country joined the then European economic community.

Flanked by large union flags, the prime minister said: “This European question’s been going on for decades. I think this gives us the platform, the foundation for a really prosperous new relationship.”

Read more:

Boris Johnson's tie
Boris Johnson’s fish-patterned tie during his press conference announcing the deal, thought to be a nod to a key sticking point between UK and EU negotiators. Photograph: Paul Grover/AP

In most respects, the Christmas Eve deal between the UK and the EU followed the usual pattern of trade talks down the ages. The negotiations seemed to go on for ever, they often teetered on the brink of collapse, and they were only rescued when the politicians got involved.

Sometimes, the gap between the two sides is simply too big, but that never looked likely in this case. There was always going to be a point when Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen would step in and make the necessary compromises.

This time the endgame was about fish – a tiny part of the economy which, despite its political salience, was never going to be allowed to thwart a deal. Von der Leyen seems satisfied that the EU’s share of the catch in British coastal waters will only be cut by 25% for the next five and a half years. Johnson said British boats would have two-thirds of the catch and that the people of the UK would have to eat prodigious amounts of fish.

Read more:

The former justice secretary David Gauke has joined the chorus of voices saying the deal is better than no deal, but said any future problems as a result of the agreement would be laid at Boris Johnson’s door.

Gauke had the Conservative party whip withdrawn from him last year for voting for the Benn Act, defying the whip. He lost his seat at the election in December.

Writing for the Guardian, he said: “Every new inconvenience as a consequence of Brexit, every belated discovery of an advantage of EU membership that is now lost, every announcement of investment and jobs being relocated elsewhere, will be put at the prime minister’s door. There is no one else to blame.”

Updated

The travel and tourism sector, which has already been hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic, will be breathing a “sigh of relief”, according to an industry body.

Gloria Guevara, the president of the World Travel and Tourism Council, said: “It is good news for a sector … which feared the consequences of a no-deal Brexit. Thankfully this worrying outcome has been avoided and now the sector can look ahead to 2021 with more confidence.”

She warned that British holidaymakers could face higher health costs and red tape.

Updated

Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel in face masks.
Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel at an EU summit in July. Photograph: Reuters

Here’s a roundup of reaction from European leaders, as Emmanuel Macron said “unity and firmness” had paid off, while Angela Merkel said she was confident the deal was a “good result”.

Micheál Martin, Ireland’s taoiseach, said Dublin would now “consider the detail of the text very carefully”.

Updated

The fishing industry said it was “bitterly disappointed” that Boris Johnson had not secured control of the 12 miles of fishing waters off the coast of Britain.

Barrie Deas, the head of the National Federation of Fisherman’s Organisations, said Boris Johnson had had his “Ted Heath moment” – a reference to the former prime minister giving away fishing rights in British waters in 1973.

“I think what I would say is that there’s a gap between the rhetoric and the delivery,” Deas said. “There’s always been that fear within the fishing industry that there would be a repeat of of 1973, that in order to secure other national objectives fishing would be considered expendable. Yeah, I don’t think it’s untrue to say that there are echoes of Ted Heath in this series.”

He said the five-and-a-half-year promise of a blank slate for fresh negotiation was “justice deferred, justice denied” and the fishing industry felt that “for the first time in 40 years” the Tories had created “an opportunity to redefine our fisheries relationship with the EU”.

“I think the industry will be bitterly disappointed”, he said. “I think there will be fury about the failure to secure an exclusive 12-mile zone.” The area is particularly important in southern waters, where large French trawlers come within six miles of Cornwall and the Channel to fish haddock and cod, and for those around the Thames estuary who have to compete with Belgian trawlers.

Updated

Richard Tice, the chair of the Brexit party, which won the most seats in the UK at the last European elections, said the deal was satisfactory on security, defence and foreign policy.

He also welcomed the European court of justice no longer having a say in British lawmaking.

Tice said: “There are clearly some compromises on the level playing field and fishing which will have to play out and be kept under close review. However, right now this is as good as we are going to get.”

Updated

Drakeford: deal better than 'catastrophic' no deal

Wales’ first minister, Mark Drakeford, has said the deal is better than the “catastrophe” of no deal, but said Welsh businesses would still face significant challenges when trading.

He agreed with Keir Starmer that when faced with a choice between no deal and this deal, he preferred the latter.

“It is appalling that it has taken until a week before we leave the transition period to give the first indication of the terms on which we will trade with our most important trading partner. This will only add to the enormous challenges facing our businesses,” he said.

Updated

The government has published a 34-page summary explainer of the deal between the UK and EU.

Q: You’ve always been a very pro-European leader throughout your career. Is voting for the deal an act of political cowardice?

It’s the opposite, says Starmer. There is only a binary choice available, between the deal on offer or no deal. Labour has always been against no deal, which is why it’s voting for it next week, he says. Many will see it as a difficult choice on behalf of the Labour party and the country.

And the press conference finishes.

Q: What are the benefits of Brexit?

The UK has left the EU and has to make a future outside it and now has a base to build on, which is a very good thing, Starmer says. He adds that the relief across business will be huge.

Updated

Q: If you were to win the next election, would you go back to the EU and try to renegotiate a new deal. Did Labour make a mistake abstaining on Covid legislation in parliament?

Starmer says he’s clear that Labour would inherit this deal, and that Labour has to make it work. Of course Labour would improve it, he says.

On abstaining, Starmer says he didn’t think the tiered system would work, which Johnson eventually acknowledged by going into a lockdown.

Updated

First question is from Nick Eardley from the BBC, who asks what Starmer meant when he said it was a “thin deal”.

The Labour leader says no deal would have terrible consequences for the country, so we have to make a success of it.

It doesn’t deliver on the promises the government made, Starmer says, especially regarding services, which make up 80% of the economy. He says it is in the national interest to support it.

Updated

He says he is addressing the British public directly, and knows they are tired of Brexit.

You want to move on. You want politicians in Westminster talking about the things that matter to you and your family, securing the economy, protecting our NHS and rebuilding our country. Those are my priorities. We are a great country. We have done extraordinary things, our NHS is the envy of the world. Britain’s scientists were among the first to discover a vaccine for coronavirus.

I want to be prime minister because I believe in a better future is possible for our country. That we can be even greater than we are today. That we can achieve so much more. That we can stand proud on the world stage, and we can make Britain the best place to grow up in and the best place to grow old in.

Labour to back trade deal

Starmer says it’s a deal Labour will inherit in 2024 if it wins the election, and the public expects it to make it work.

He says it isn’t credible for Labour to sit on the sidelines.

“When this deal comes before parliament, Labour will accept it and vote for it,” he says.

Updated

He says “the fact that the government was even willing to consider no deal, during a global pandemic, was deeply irresponsible.”

Updated

Keir Starmer’s press conference has begun, as he responds to the news.

He says no deal is not an option. Jobs would be put at risk, businesses would collapse and investment would dry up, and the UK’s national security would be threatened.

Updated

The Road Haulage Association, which represents freight companies, said traders and hauliers would still be hit by “vast amounts of new paperwork processes” and border checks despite the deal.

Its chief executive, Richard Burnett, said he was relieved that there would be no tariffs on new lorries, but he called for more clarity.

He said: “The British economy cannot afford for UK and EU hauliers and traders to begin 2021 with an ill-prepared journey into the unknown.”

Updated

The National Farmers’ Union has said it is relieved, but said new rules could still disrupt trade.

More than 60% of the UK’s agricultural food and drink production – worth £14.5bn – is exported to the EU, making it the largest trading partner for British farmers.

The union’s president, Minette Batters, described the deal as “very positive news for British agriculture”.

The EU is our largest trading partner and we have been clear throughout negotiations that maintaining tariff-free access to the EU market is absolutely crucial for our food and farming industry, not only for farmers’ businesses and livelihoods, but for our ability to continue to provide a secure supply of quality, home-grown food for the nation.

It does remain the case, though, that our relationship with the EU will experience a fundamental change at the end of the transition period on 1 January and we do anticipate that there will still be disruption to trade at the border.

Updated

Parliament recalled to vote on trade deal

Parliament will be recalled from Wednesday next week for MPs and Lords to vote on the deal.

However, the Commons Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle, has told MPs not to travel to London to sit in person unless “absolutely necessary” due to the recent rise in Covid infections.

Updated

The European commission has produced a chart showing the differences for the UK between its rights as a member of the EU, and its new status as a “third country”. It shows that Britain won’t have access to the Erasmus scheme or financial services passports.

Updated

Sturgeon: Scotland should 'chart its own future' after deal

Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has expanded on her comments earlier, saying the Brexit deal gives renewed cause for Scottish independence.

Scotland did not vote for any of this and our position is clearer than ever. Scotland now has the right to choose its own future as an independent country and once more regain the benefits of EU membership.

It beggars belief that in the midst of a pandemic and economic recession Scotland has been forced out of the EU single market and customs union with all the damage to jobs that will bring.

A deal is better than no deal. But, just because, at the 11th hour, the UK government has decided to abandon the idea of a no-deal outcome, it should not distract from the fact that they have chosen a hard Brexit, stripping away so many of the benefits of EU membership.

She said promises over fishing had been broken and the views of people in Scotland had been ignored.

Updated

Industry bosses have been reacting. The British Retail Consortium has welcomed the free trade agreement. Helen Dickinson, its chief executive, said:

This protects consumers on both sides of the Channel from billions in import tariffs on everyday goods. Given that four-fifths of UK food imports come from the EU, today’s announcement should afford households around the UK a collective sigh of relief.

The UK and EU governments have taken a crucially important step in agreeing a zero-tariff agreement, to the benefit of customers all over Europe. They must now work to implement this new arrangement as soon as possible, ensuring there are no tariffs from day one, and finding new ways to reduce the checks and red tape that we’ll see from 1 January.

The manufacturers body Make UK has cautiously welcomed the news, saying it avoids the “catastrophe of no deal”. Its chief executive, Stephen Phipson, said: “Tariffs and quotas would have been a disaster for exporters but we will need to go through this with a fine tooth comb to understand exactly what the impact on manufacturers will be.”

Updated

Nigel Farage is now speaking to Sky News.

The former Brexit party leader says the deal represents progress and Britain is far better off than five years ago. He welcomes the news on defence and foreign policy and adds that he would vote for the deal if he was an MP.

I would need to see the detail and would not want to be bounced into voting for it in a couple of days having not read it. What I think parliament should do is have a vote in principle and then in the new year, go through it detail.

In principle, given where we are right now, given that this has been the most divisive issue in British politics for three decades, if this brings some peace and some stability, then yes in principle I would [vote for it].

This is Harry Taylor taking over from Lucy Campbell for the rest of tonight.

Updated

The TUC general secretary, Frances O’Grady, has said the deal puts workers’ rights “on the line”:

This deal is better than nothing, but not by much. It won’t protect jobs and puts hard-won workers’ rights on the line.

As we come out of the pandemic, we’re facing a crunch point for jobs and living standards. This deal is on the prime minister’s head – it’s his responsibility to make sure working families don’t end up worse off.

Now the prime minister must make good on his promise to level up Britain. And he needs to act fast. There can be no more pointing the finger at the EU. Government must deliver an industrial strategy for decent work, with investment in jobs and green industries in parts of the country that need it most.

Ministers must also urgently build on this deal to overcome the barriers to trade and higher production costs many sectors will face which puts jobs at risk. And we will not accept a race to the bottom on rights.

Updated

Scotland’s Brexit secretary, Michael Russell, says he understands Barnier’s remark about “relief tinged with sadness”.

He tweeted:

Meanwhile, the Scottish Conservative leader, Douglas Ross, welcomed the deal as “great news”.

James Withers, the chief executive of Scotland Food & Drink, is urging the UK government to seek a grace period on the introduction of new export checks. He said:

The tariff threat is averted but we remain hugely concerned at the wave of new export checks about to be introduced. For months now we have been warning the UK government of disruption and a lack of readiness. We have lost a transition period to a pandemic and it is only with a week to go that we now know what we are transitioning to.

Updated

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said she was pleased that negotiators had reached an agreement that would regulate future relations between the EU and UK. This was of “historic significance”, she said.

Merkel said her government would now study the treaty text “intensely” but wouldn’t have to “start from zero” since the governments of member states had been consulted throughout.

“We will therefore soon be in a position where we can judge whether Germany can support the result of today’s result,” she said. “I am optimistic that we have a good result in front of us here.”

Her cabinet will consult on the German position at 9.30am on 28 December.

Updated

The chief minister of Gibraltar has said that talks are still ongoing regarding how Brexit will impact the British overseas territory.

“This deal does not cover Gibraltar. For us, and for the people of the Campo de Gibraltar around us, the clock is still ticking,” Fabian Picardo said in a statement.

We continue to work, hand in glove with the United Kingdom, to finalise negotiation with Spain of [an] agreement for a proposed treaty between the EU and the UK in relation to Gibraltar. I am optimistic that we will be able to finalise that agreement.

Earlier, Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has said talks between Spain and the UK over the future of Gibraltar are ongoing.

In a tweet welcoming the draft agreement between the EU and the UK, Sánchez said member states would examine the deal and the EU council would make clear its position in the coming days.

He added: “Dialogue continues between Spain and the UK to reach an agreement on Gibraltar.”

Updated

Q. What do you say to young people denied opportunities such as Erasmus?

What is your message to Keir Starmer as he decides whether Labour should support your deal?

Johnson says Erasmus has been wonderful but the UK loses out financially, so they will produce a Turing scheme for students to go to universities around the world.

The opposition should vote for the deal, he says.

Q. Are we going to be as safe next week under your new security partnership as we are today, given we’ll be locked out of live EU databases?

How should we celebrate leaving the EU next week?

Johnson says the deal protects the ability to share information across the continent.

Q. What is your message for those who voted Remain in 2016?

Can you rule out another national lockdown after Christmas?

Johnson says 2016 is now a long time behind us and people want to move on after decades on the European question.

He adds we face particular pressures with the speed at which the new variant is spreading – tough restrictions, tough tiering.

We need to buy time to get the vaccine to as many elderly and vulnerable people as we can, he says.

The vaccine gives hope it will be defeated by spring, he says.

Updated

Q. Is there anything in the deal where flexibility will be introduced at the border to ensure there isn’t chaos at Dover and Calais on 1 January.

Nigel Farage said today that ‘the war is over’, do you see it in these terms?

Johnson says there are measures in the treaty to make sure things flow as smoothly as possible but there are things people must do to prepare.

The EU was and is a noble enterprise, he says, but the UK’s relationship with it was always difficult.

We’ll continue to be allies and partners but the dense ideological integration wasn’t for the UK, he says.

Q. Do you accept that you’ve compromised in the last 11 months/days from your earlier absolutist positions?

Can you address services - 80% of the UK economy - will they be able to do more or less trade?

Johnson says they compromised on fishing in terms of the transition period.

He says there isn’t as much in the deal about financial services as they would have liked.

Q. Will life be better with this deal and without disruption even in the short-term?

Can you guarantee the government won’t end up reopening elements of the new relationship in the years to come?

Johnson says the freedoms in this treaty to do things differently are worth having.

He says winning freedom is important but what will matter is how we use it.

He says the new relationship will be stable and prosperous for both sides.

Q. We still have to follow EU rules on subsidies, tax, workers’ rights, environment, or potentially incur the imposition of tariffs - haven’t you explicitly rejected the level playing field all the way through?

Isn’t it not true there will be no non-tariff barriers because as a result of leaving the customs union there’s a ton of new bureaucracy on British companies?

You’re mis-selling the deal aren’t you?

Johnson disagrees.

He says a clause within the deal says that if either party feels they are being undercut by the other, they can, subject to arbitration, impose tariffs to protect their consumers and businesses.

Updated

He is taking questions from the media now.

Q. Where did the UK give the most ground and where did the EU compromise the most?

Johnson says the text is around 500 pages.

We wanted to ensure complete control of access to our fisheries from the get-go, he says.

The EU began with wanting a transition of 14 years, the UK wanted three years, we’ve ended up at five and a half years, “a reasonable transition period”, he says.

Updated

We have today resolved a question that has bedevilled our politics for decades, Johnson says.

It is up to us all together as a newly and truly independent nation to realise the immensity of this moment and to make the most of it, he says.

Updated

To the EU, in what he says has sometimes been a “fractious and difficult” relationship, Johnson says:

We will be your friend, your ally, your supporter and indeed, never let it be forgotten, your number one market.

Although we have left the EU, this country will remain culturally, emotionally, historically, strategically, geologically attached to Europe - not least through the 4 million EU nationals who have requested to settle in the UK over the last four years and who make an enormous contribution to our country and our lives.

Updated

We will be able to do free trade deals as one United Kingdom - England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales together, he says.

This deal will benefit every part of the UK, helping to unite and level across the UK, Johnson adds.

Updated

He hopes for scrutiny followed by a parliamentary vote on 30 December, he says.

Updated

If one side believes it’s being unfairly undercut by the other, we can decide as sovereign equals to protect our consumers or businesses, he says.

But this treaty envisages that such action should happen infrequently, he says.

Arguments were sometimes fierce, he says, but this is a good deal for the whole of Europe.

For the first time since 1973, the UK will be an independent coastal state with full control of its waters, he says.

The UK’s share of fish in its waters will rise substantially, he says, from roughly half today to closer to two-thirds in five and a half years’ time.

Updated

Boris Johnson's press conference

Boris Johnson is speaking now. He says he rejected extending the transition period amid the coronavirus pandemic as he did not want to add to uncertainty.

We have completed the biggest trade deal yet worth £166bn a year, a comprehensive Canada-style free trade deal with the EU, he says.

The deal will protect jobs, allow UK goods to be sold without tariffs and quotas in the EU market, allow companies to do even more business with Europe, he says.

Yet it achieves taking back control of our laws and our destiny, he says.

From 1 January, we are outside the customs union and single market, he says.

British laws will be made solely by the British parliament, interpreted by UK judges sitting in UK courts and the jurisdiction of the ECJ will come to an end, he says.

Updated

A hard Brexit would not have been good for both sides, she says, but it would have hit the UK harder than the EU, with all its might and 450 million citizens.

In the fishery field, we made a huge step forward and got a very good agreement, so this shows that from a position of strength, you can achieve a lot, she adds.

Updated

Back at the press conference, Von der Leyen says there are strong measures within this deal that can be taken if one party does not play by the rules.

There will be a review after four years to ensure both sides are playing by the rules agreed in this deal and to see that the level playing field is level, she says.

There are strong safeguards to ensure there is an incentive for both sides to stick to what they have agreed to, she adds.

Updated

The former prime minister Theresa May has also welcomed the news.

The former prime minister David Cameron, who called the referendum on leaving the European Union, has welcomed the news of the deal.

Guy Verhofstadt, who served as chief Brexit coordinator for the European parliament, said he hopes the deal “will be a first step in the return of the UK into the European family”.

Updated

The prime minister Boris Johnson tweeted a picture of himself smiling with both thumbs lifted in the air.

“The deal is done,” he wrote.

We will hear from the PM shortly.

Updated

A Labour party spokesperson, responding to the agreement, said:

Since the election, the Labour Party has urged the government and the EU to secure a trade deal because that is in the national interest. We will be setting out our formal response to the deal in due course.

Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, has reacted to the news that a deal has been done.

Updated

The EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier is speaking now.

He thanks and pays tribute to everybody who has been involved in the process throughout the past four and a half years, including the UK’s negotiating team.

Today is a day of relief, he says, but tinted by some sadness as we compare what came before with what lies ahead.

'It is time to leave Brexit behind', says von der Leyen

At the end of successful negotiations I normally feel joy, she says, but I feel satisfaction and relief.

Parting is such sweet sorrow, she says.

To all Europeans, I say: it’s time to leave Brexit behind. Our future is made in Europe, she says.

Updated

“Europe is now moving on,” Von der Leyen has tweeted.

Updated

Firstly, competition in the single market will remain fair, she says.

The EU rules and standards will be respected, she says.

We have effective tools to react if fair competition is distorted and impacts our trade, she says.

Secondly, she says, we’ll continue operating with the UK in all areas of mutual interest such as climate change, energy, security and transport.

Together, we still achieve more than we do apart, she says.

Thirdly, we’ve secured five and a half years of full predictability for our fishing communities, she says.

This whole debate has always been about sovereignty, she says, but what does it actually mean in the 21st century?

To seamlessly work, travel, study and do business in 27 countries, pooling our strength and speaking together, and in a time of crisis, it’s about pulling each other up instead of trying to get back to your feet alone, she says.

Updated

EU press conference

Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president, is speaking now.

We have finally found an agreement after a long and winding road, she says.

It is a good deal that is fair and balanced and responsible for both sides, she says.

Updated

Here is the full statement from No 10.

Deal is done. Everything that the British public was promised during the 2016 referendum and in the general election last year is delivered by this deal.

  • We have taken back control of our money, borders, laws, trade and our fishing waters.
  • The deal is fantastic news for families and businesses in every part of the UK. We have signed the first free trade agreement based on zero tariffs and zero quotas that has ever been achieved with the EU.
  • The deal is the biggest bilateral trade deal signed by either side, covering trade worth £668bn in 2019.
  • The deal also guarantees that we are no longer in the lunar pull of the EU, we are not bound by EU rules, there is no role for the European court of justice and all of our key red lines about returning sovereignty have been achieved. It means that we will have full political and economic independence on 1 January 2021.
  • A points-based immigration system will put us in full control of who enters the UK, and free movement will end.
  • We have delivered this great deal for the entire United Kingdom in record time, and under extremely challenging conditions, which protects the integrity of our internal market and Northern Ireland’s place within it.
  • We have got Brexit done and we can now take full advantage of the fantastic opportunities available to us as an independent trading nation, striking trade deals with other partners around the world.

Updated

Downing Street has issued a statement after the securing of a post-Brexit trade deal with the EU.

It claims:

Everything that the British public was promised during the 2016 referendum and in the general election last year is delivered by this deal. We have taken back control of our money, borders, laws, trade and our fishing waters.

This is from ITV’s Daniel Hewitt

Updated

UK and EU agree post-Brexit trade deal

A historic deal on the UK’s future trading and security relationship with the European Union has been struck on Christmas Eve, a week before the end of the Brexit transition period.

The European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, and the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier will hold a press conference shortly, the EU said.

Updated

According to reports, the deal has been finalised.

We’re expecting a press conference at 3pm.

Updated

Ambassadors from the European Union member states will not be asked to look at a Brexit deal today.

Sebastian Fischer, a spokesman for the German presidency of the Council of the EU who coordinates meetings of the EU council and ambassadors, said no meeting would be called due to the “ongoing” negotiations.

This does not necessarily mean a deal will not still be announced today, but it is further evidence of how late negotiations are running.

Updated

Boris Johnson is confident he can sell the trade deal to Brexiters, according to the FT (paywall).

Sebastian Payne and George Parker report that Downing Street has been preparing the ground for weeks with the ERG, ensuring that senior backbenchers were aware of the shape of things to come and compromises being made.

Here are some extracts:

Senior members of the group have already welcomed Johnson’s imminent deal as the “Christmas Eve agreement”, a reference to the 1998 Belfast Good Friday agreement that secured peace in Northern Ireland.

Indications from senior figures within the ERG suggest that many of its members will accept the compromises negotiated by Johnson and Lord Frost.

While some ERG members are unhappy about the concessions on fisheries, they have already broadly accepted the outline deal on the “level playing field” designed to ensure fair competition between the UK and EU, which was the most ideologically tricky part of the agreement.

The caucus will argue that the anticipated final agreement is a long way from the “classic dynamic alignment” originally sought by the EU, which would have tied the UK to Brussels’ rules, enforced by the European court of justice.

However, the ERG is reserving ultimate judgment until after it has seen the fine print and – in particular – until its legal experts have pored over a text rumoured to take up 2,000 pages.

As my colleague Andrew Sparrow noted earlier, a rebellion from Tory Eurosceptics would have little impact, given Johnson’s majority and the Labour party’s indication that it will support a deal.

The FT also quotes one MP who suggests Johnson will remind those in his party considering rebellion of the effect of upcoming boundary changes on the next general election, to persuade them to support him:

If they want help from the party to stay in parliament, then they’ll back the deal.

Updated

In case you’re just joining us, the final stage of the negotiations for a post-Brexit trade deal has been delayed after it emerged that the European commission was using out-of-date figures to calculate the reduction in the amount of fish that member states can catch in British waters after 1 January.

A deal was due to be announced early this morning but the announcement had to be postponed when officials noticed a discrepancy between two sets of fishing figures and realised that the numbers used in the negotiation appeared to be out of date.

Negotiations are now expected to run for several more hours before the deal is agreed. It remains the case that both sides expect an agreement to be reached.

Updated

Boris Johnson is clearly anxious about what the ERG will make of the deal, especially where key aspects like fishing are concerned, and wants them onboard.

Updated

The negotiators in Brussels have been brought sandwiches for their lunch, “so no white smoke, no news” on the deal just yet, according to the BBC’s Europe correspondent Gavin Lee.

Lee quotes one official who suggested the awaited press conference “could even be later this evening”.

From the BBC’s Europe editor Katya Adler:

Updated

From Sky’s Sam Coates:

Updated

From the Sunday Times’ political editor Tim Shipman:

Updated

A further update on the state of the talks via BBC One scheduling.

Many people seem concerned about the fate of Paddington 2, which has been pushed off the air once already this year. Last time it was due to that Dominic Cummings press conference.

Updated

Here is PA’s report on the EU granting the UK “national listed status” to continue exporting animal products.

Exports of meat, fish and dairy products to the European Union will be able to continue beyond 1 January after the UK was granted “national listed status”.

The measure means live animals and products of animal origin can be supplied to the EU after Brussels confirmed the UK met health and biosecurity standards.

The EU has also agreed to the exports of many plants and plant products can continue being exported to the bloc and Northern Ireland.

But seed potatoes – an important Scottish export and worth about £112m a year – will be banned, leading Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, to condemn the “disastrous” outcome.

The UK’s chief veterinary officer Christine Middlemiss said: “Third-country listed status demonstrates our very high standards of biosecurity and animal health which we will continue to maintain after the end of the transition period.”

Businesses in the £5bn animal export market will face some red tape in order to continue exporting, including the need for a health certificate.

While potatoes destined for European dinner plates can continue to be exported, those used as seed crops cannot be.

Defra said it would not be possible to export seed potatoes to the EU or Northern Ireland from 1 January but officials were working with the European commission on the issue.

Sturgeon said it was a “disastrous Brexit outcome for Scottish farmers” and “like all other aspects of Brexit, foisted on Scotland against our will”.

Updated

This is from the Times’ Brussels correspondent Bruno Waterfield:

The Times (paywall) reports that the deal, which was due to be announced early this morning, has been delayed for several hours “after it emerged that the European commission was using out-of-date figures to calculate the reduction in the amount of fish stocks that EU countries will be able to catch as part of the deal”.

Updated

David Henig, head of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Centre for International Political Economy, has published an article on the trade deal that is worth reading. For obvious reasons, it does not go into the detail of the agreement, but it provides a useful overview. Here’s an excerpt.

For the UK this looks like finally the end of five years of turbulent politics dominated by the EU relationship. Three consecutive autumns dominated by the question of deal or not. The question has for the time being been settled, with a preferential relationship greater than WTO but less than customs union or single market. There will be continuous negotiations on areas of detail in the future, but most will barely trouble the media or political worlds. Overall there will be some form of stability, even if uneasily in a UK split between those wanting closer and more distant EU relations, and with particular challenges in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

There will of course be major challenges in the future relationship. Ultimately the EU achieved their main goals from Brexit, and the UK arguably did not. The EU successfully avoided a border on the island of Ireland and protected the single market from significant cherry picking. The UK succeeded in the headline goal of leaving the EU, but failed as proponents had expected to retain the benefits of membership without incurring the costs, and more recently in overturning any of the withdrawal agreement as the staunch Brexiteers had hoped. The EU also looks stronger for demonstrating so far that leaving is not an easy option, while the UK’s ability to maintain trade relations while escaping ‘the Brussels Effect’ of following EU regulations is going to be tested, business for example will wish to reverse the decision to leave some European regulatory agencies.

There is a link to the full article here.

That’s all from me. I’m handing over now to my colleague Lucy Campbell.

Updated

The pro-European Labour peer Andrew Adonis thinks Boris Johnson is deliberately dragging out the talks.

The EU HQ in Brussels this morning, where it’s been raining.
The EU HQ in Brussels this morning, where it’s been raining.
 Photograph: Virginia Mayo/AP

This is from Michael Russell, the Scottish government’s cabinet secretary for the constitution, Europe and external affairs.

And this is from the BBC’s Europe correspondent, Gavin Lee.

More bad news, from Sky’s Sam Coates

In a Twitter thread starting here, Paul James Cardwell, a law professor, has posted a more detailed account of why what Boris Johnson promised about the UK’s future relationship with the EU just after the referendum in 2016 (see 10.57am) is hard to square with where we are now.

Updated

Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, has also been speaking to talkRadio this morning. As Ukip leader, he was probably decisive in ensuring the UK held a referendum on Brexit, and highly influential in ensuring leave won. He and Boris Johnson were on the same side. But their relations have been fractious (Farage is about the only prominent Brexit supporter who hasn’t been given a seat in the House of Lords by Johnson) and recently Farage has floated the idea of reviving his party as a new, anti-government force.

At times Farage has also sounded keen to denounce Johnson for betraying Brexit. See 11.33am, quoting what he said only last night. But in his interview earlier he sounded broadly supportive. He said:

Boris will be seen as the man that finished the job. Perhaps not perfectly, but, yes, he’s done what he said he’d do on the big picture. I suspect on some of the detail, such as ‘we’ll be back in charge of our fisheries’, history may judge some of those aspects a little more harshly. But on the big stuff, the war is over ...

It’s not perfect, but goodness me, it’s still progress.

(Being Farage, of course, he could not resist a tasteless military metaphor.)

Updated

And these are from Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader. He posted them last night.

From the Green MP Caroline Lucas

From Reuters’ Guy Faulconbridge, quoting from an analysis of the deal from the investment bank JP Morgan.

And Joe Mayes, a Brexit specialist at Bloomberg, has posted a good Twitter thread looking at who seems to have “won” and “lost” on various issues, based on the internal UK government assessment leaked to Guido Fawkes. (See 9.17am.) It starts here.

And here are two of his more important points.

From Sam Lowe, the Brexit and trade specialist at the Centre for European Reform

We’re going to hear a lot of “victory” claims today - all of which are likely to be self-serving, and many of which will be dubious too. Politico’s Alex Wickham is reporting one here.

The Independent’s Jon Stone is dubious.

Updated

Sturgeon says deal 'disastrous' for Scottish farmers

Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, says the deal will be “disastrous” for Scottish farmers because seed potatoes are excluded from third country listing. (See 8.25am.)

My colleague Libby Brooks has the full story.

Bad news from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg

(Or good news, I suppose, if you are planning to give it a watch.)

Boris Johnson is clearly worried that hardline Brexiters may be worried about aspects of the deal, particularly the compromise over fishing. But as businesses start to quantify the new barriers to trade that will be in place from 1 January (as farmers have been highlighting this morning - see 8.25am and 9.56am) Johnson may face renewed criticism for the fact that the UK will no longer enjoy all the advantages it had as a member of the single market, as Vote Leave promised in the 2016 referendum.

This is what Johnson said about life after Brexit in an article for the Daily Telegraph published just days after the referendum result.

I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.

British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.

Under the trade deal the UK will have access to the single market in the sense of being able to sell goods tariff-free into the EU, but it won’t have access in the sense of being able to trade frictionlessly, as it did as a member of the single market. Britons will, of course, be able to visit and work and live in the EU, but not as an absolute, unqualified right. And, far from being “intensified”, cooperation in areas like university exchanges is being scaled back.

This is from Anneliese Dodds, the shadow chancellor.

Labour will not vote against the deal in the Commons next week and Sir Keir Starmer has been strongly hinting that he will whip his MPs to vote in favour. He has said that the party will vote in the national interest, and that no deal (the alternative) is clearly not in the national interest.

But the shadow cabinet has been split on this and earlier this month the Financial Times (paywall) reported that Dodds was the most senior figure arguing for Labour to abstain.

David Davis, the Conservative former Brexit secretary, sounds minded to support the trade deal, judging by what we know at this stage about what’s in it (which is not, of course, the full detail) and what he’s been saying to LBC. These are from LBC’s Theo Usherwood.

The Joe Barnes tweets (see 10.05am) suggest Davis will be satisfied with the outcome on this.

The BBC’s Iain Watson is saying that he now expects Boris Johnson’s call with Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission’s president, to take place shortly.

That is the call that is expected to sign off the deal. Once that has taken place, we’re expecting a press conference from Johnson.

The internal UK government assessment leaked to the Guido Fawkes website (see 9.34am) does not cover fisheries, which still seems to be the subject of last-minute haggling this morning. But last night Joe Barnes, the Daily Express’s Brussels correspondent, reported that on this there has been a compromise.

The Farmers’ Union of Wales has welcomed news of the trade deal. But the FUW president, Glyn Roberts, like the NFU president, Minette Batters, (see 8.25am), has said that, even without tariffs, trade costs will still go up. He explained:

The consequences of a no deal for farming and other industries would be catastrophic, so it was always hoped that common sense would prevail.

However, our access to the EU market, which is the destination for three-quarters of Welsh food and drink exports, will still face significant barriers after 31 December, with non-tariff barrier costs expected to rise by 4% to 8%.

Updated

Sam Lowe, the Brexit and trade specialist at the Centre for European Reform thinktank, has been looking at the UK government scorecard posted on the Guido Fawkes website.

He is sceptical of some of the assessments.

Cumulation is a concept relating to rules of origin. In a trade deal rules of origin specify that, for a product to qualify as British, X% has to originate from Britain, and no more than Y% is allowed to originate from a third country. Cumulation refers to exceptions for when that Y% refers to parts originating from the other country party to the trade deal (ie, the EU), or countries both parties have a trade deal with.

Lowe also says one passage in the original document now seems to have been removed.

The Guido Fawkes blog, which strongly supports Brexit and the Boris Johnson administration, has published what it says is an internal UK government analysis assessing who’s won and lost on particular issues during the trade negotiation.

It claims that the UK has won on 43% of issues, that the EU on 17%, and they’ve compromised on the other 40%.

It’s an interesting exercise, but hugely subjective. A lot depends on how you “weight” particular issues; some matter more than others, or to one side more than the other. And, in assessing who has backed down, a lot depends on what timeframe you apply. On some issues the UK “ask” two weeks ago was not the same as it was in January, and even that might have been different from what Boris Johnson was promising last year, or in 2016. The same is true of the EU, which has also seen its demands evolve on some issues.

As the Guido Fawkes blog reports, the document is clearly designed to counter objections to the deal anticipated from the more hardline Tory Brexiters.

And talking of the ERG, this tweet, from Nick Macpherson, the former head of the Treasury, seems calculated to wind them up. He posted it last night.

Downing Street this morning.
Downing Street this morning. Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA

Anton Spisak, a former UK civil servant who is now a Brexit specialist at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, has produced a useful 11-page guide (pdf) highlighting the issues to look for when assessing the deal.

He has summarised them in a Twitter thread starting here.

He also says he expects the ERG (see 7.09am) to be disappointed with the deal.

Sir Ian Cheshire, chairman of Barclays UK, told the Today programme this morning that he welcomed reports of a deal because at least business now had “clarity”.

I’m very glad that it appears we can carry on with ... our most important trading relationship.

And business can plan. I think that’s been the overriding issue for businesses over the last two years. They are occasionally accused of not being ready, and the question is - ready for what? At least now we have got clarity and we can get on.

As my colleague Graeme Wearden reports on his business live blog, the value of the pound has been rising this morning following the news that a trade deal has been agreed.

Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister, has told RTE this morning that there has been “some sort of last-minute hitch” in agreeing the deal.

He said that he had been expecting Boris Johnson to be holding a news conference about now, and that he had hoped to be commenting on the deal himself in his RTE interview.

“That hasn’t happened. So there is some sort of last-minute hitch,” Coveney said. He said it related to “small text” of a fisheries agreement.

But he said he still expected the formal announcement from London and Brussels later today.

Updated

According to the BBC’s economics editor Faisal Islam, under the trade deal the UK has been granted third country listing status for almost all food and plant exports, meaning they can be exported to the EU. This was expected, but has still been welcomed by the NFU, the farmers’ union.

But Islam says seed pototoes are not included, meaning this industry, which is based in Scotland and the north of England, is threatened. This is from Fergus Ewing, the Scottish government’s rural economy minister.

On the Today programme Minette Batters, the NFU president, said she did not have the details of what was in the trade deal, but she said she hoped the seed potato issue could be resolved. But she also said there were 4,000 tonnes of seed potatoes due to be exported to the EU which she thought would now be held up.

Talking about the deal generally, she said getting third country listing status was “essential”. But she said that, even without tariffs, “trade facilitation costs” would be between 5% and 8% under the new arrangements.

And she said farmers would need “500% more vets” to deal with animal health certification checks required from January.

Updated

These are from the Times’ Brussels correspondent Bruno Waterfield.

A cameraman filming in Downing Street this morning.
A cameraman filming in Downing Street this morning. Photograph: Frank Augstein/AP

The Conservative MP Robert Halfon says that after 31 December January he wants to never have to talk about Brexit ever again (see 7.56am), but he may be disappointed. Labour’s Hilary Benn, chair of the Commons Brexit committee, told BBC Breakfast that, even with a deal, he thought the debate about the UK’s relationship with the EU would continue. He said:

As January 1 comes and goes, the debate in British politics will be, if there’s an agreement, that’s the starting point, but these are still our biggest, nearest and most important neighbours, trading partners and security allies - what kind of relationship do we want to have in the future?

And I hope it’s going to be as close a one as possible ... I suspect this will not be the end of negotiations with the EU, there will be plenty of things to talk about over the months and the years ahead.

The UK and the EU have delayed reaching an agreement right until the very last moment - and even this morning we are hearing talk that the press conference originally expected at 8am (see 6.57am) is being held up. One important political consequence of this is that Brexit fatigue has taken hold, and some people would be grateful for any deal, however ropey, just to get the whole thing over. The Conservative MP Robert Halfon (who voted remain in 2016) is honest enough to more or less admit this.

Leaving it until the last minute also means parliamentarians (and others, like the ERG - see 7.09am) have less time to scrutinise the details. Halfon says he will “read every page” before MPs vote on the deal (perhaps next Wednesday, the day when it is expected to be rushed through the Commons). But that’s a bold promise; the text of the deal, and its associated annexes, are said to run to around 2,000 pages.

Even with a free trade deal eliminating all or most tariffs and quotas on goods being traded between the UK and the EU (which is what has been agreed), Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Commons Brexit committee, has just been reminding BBC Breakfast that exporting to Europe will still be more complicated after 1 January than it has been. He told the programme:

The big worry is what happens if lorries turn up at Dover that don’t have the right paperwork, because it doesn’t take many of those to start clogging up the system.

Now, everybody hopes that we won’t see the scenes that we’ve seen over the last few days ... but it will depend on the paperwork and the flow, and for those businesses that have never had to fill in a customs declaration, they’ll need to work with new systems.

The IT has been delivered very late, not all of the infrastructure is in place, and there is a shortage of customs agents who can give expert advice on what it is you need to do.

So a lot of concerns have been expressed, above all by those who move goods for a living, about the potential for disruption.

Benn’s committee, which is formally known as the committee on the future relationship with the EU, set out its concerns about the border arrangements in a recent report (pdf).

Hilary Benn
Hilary Benn Photograph: BBC News

This is from Gavin Barwell, who was chief of staff to Theresa May in No 10 when she tried, and failed, to negotiate a withdrawal agreement to the EU acceptable to her parliament.

From the Wall Street Journal’s Brussels correspondent Laurence Norman

Here’s a reminder from the Financial Times’ political editor George Parker that this may be the first trade deal in history intended to make trade harder, not easier, than it already is.

Yesterday the European Research Group, which represents the Conservative MPs most committed to a hard Brexit, said they would convene a “star chamber” of lawyers to analyse the provisions of any agreed treaty before deciding on whether to give their support. (They’re fond of Tudor terminology; Henry VIII is often seen as England’s first Brexiter because he broke with Rome.)

The statement said:

The ERG will tomorrow [Thursday] reconvene the panel of legal experts, chaired by Sir Bill Cash, to examine the details and legal text. The team of highly experienced lawyers previously known as the ‘star chamber’ was first assembled in 2019 to examine the legal aspects of Theresa May’s original withdrawal agreement.

Given that the new agreement is also highly complex, the star chamber will scrutinise it in detail, to ensure that its provisions genuinely protect the sovereignty of the UK, after we exit the transition period at the end of this year.

The star chamber, which will include some new members to replace those now in government, will undertake its examination as expeditiously as possible, before providing its conclusions on the merits of the deal – which we will aim to make public before parliament reconvenes.

The ERG was a powerful force in parliament and Tory politics during the David Cameron and Theresa May premierships. Now it is less influential, because the size of Boris Johnson’s majority, and Labour’s decision not to vote against, means Boris Johnson could get a trade deal through the Commons even with a substantial ERG revolt. But Johnson does not want to lose the support of a group that solidly backed him in the Conservative leadership contest in 2019, and last night he was reportedly briefing key backbenchers on what to expect.

Boris Johnson is expected to hold a press conference at 8am, the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg reports.

Good morning. Four and a half years after the UK voted to leave the EU, and with just a week to go now until the post-Brexit transition ends on 31 December, a trade deal has finally been agreed. It was expected to be announced last night, but of course it wouldn’t be Brexit without a last-minute hold-up, and now we are being told that Boris Johnson is expected to make an announcement quite early this morning, perhaps following one final call with Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president.

At midnight last night Eric Mamer, the spokesman for the commission, posted this on Twitter.

Here is our overnight story by my colleagues Daniel Boffey and Heather Stewart.

And this is how it starts.

A post-Brexit trade and security treaty with the European Union is within “touching distance”, Downing Street said on Wednesday night as Boris Johnson prepared to unveil his hard-fought Christmas Eve deal.

The prime minister is expected to announce the terms of the agreement following a final call with the European commission president Ursula von der Leyen – but the two sides battled deep into the night to gain a last-minute advantage.

A press conference planned for early on Wednesday night did not go ahead as the two sides had needed further time to nail down the details which will include unprecedented provisions for zero tariffs or quotas on all goods.

Johnson is expected to address the nation through a press conference early on Christmas Eve. Just after 11pm, the prime minister briefed the cabinet about the breakthrough, telling them he would need their help in selling the deal which he claimed respected the sovereignty of both sides.

We’ll be covering all the developments through the day.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Updated

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