Brexit was the defining political issue in the UK in 2016, unseating a prime minister and unsettling MPs, but the shockwaves unleashed by voters’ decision to leave the European Union will reverberate over the next 12 months and beyond.
The soaring rhetoric of the Brexiters on sovereignty, control and freedom was the constant refrain of political debate in 2016, but it had already begun to be replaced by more prosaic practicalities as the year drew to a close,.
Things are due to get real, and fast. Theresa May has promised to give a speech early in the new year setting out the government’s approach to its Brexit negotiations. These will follow automatically the triggering of article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, something she intends to do before the end of March.
In January, the supreme court will rule on whether the prime minister can invoke article 50 without consulting parliament. If the 11 justices uphold the high court’s judgment, the government will have to push legislation through both houses of parliament in time to meet her self-imposed deadline for beginning the formal process of leaving the EU.
That is likely to create plenty of drama at Westminster. The next act, however, will take place far away from London, in Brussels and across the capitals of the EU member states, as leaders decide what kind of Brexit deal they are willing to offer against the backdrop of their own domestic battles.
Several forks in the road appear to be inevitable. The other 27 members of the single market seem determined to uphold the principle of the free movement of labour if Britain is to retain other benefits such as free movement of goods, capital and services.
European national elections may test this resolve. The Dutch election on 15 March is predicted to leave the anti-immigration Geert Wilders in charge of the largest party if not a coalition government. Marine Le Pen presents a similar longshot challenge in the first round of the French presidential election on 23 April and possibly in the 27 May run-off.
Little real negotiation on Brexit seems likely though before the results of German federal electionsin the autumn. It would take a political earthquake to shake the EU’s determination to extract a steep price for Britain leaving the club. British opposition to internal migrants is of a very different nature to the external flows raising concerns elsewhere in Europe.
The ideological forces unleashed by the referendum debate will continue to shape politics at home. By promising to crack down on immigration after leaving the EU and deliver a “red, white and blue Brexit”, May hopes to become the flag-bearer for leave voters who signalled their anger at a complacent establishment.
Ukip’s new leader, Paul Nuttall, will seek to harness the concerns of working class voters who fear Westminster will row back on the decision made last June. For Labour, the Brexit debate exposed and deepened the divide between the party’s traditional heartlands and its liberal, metropolitan wing.
Tensions in the parliamentary party may have become less overt since Jeremy Corbyn soundly defeated Owen Smith’s leadership challenge, but the electoral squeeze the party faces remains formidable.
The scale of the potential threat - whether from Ukip, May’s pro-Brexit Tories or the ardently pro-remain Liberal Democrats - is likely to become clearer early in 2017, with the Copeland by-election, the May mayoral races and local elections all providing key tests.
The British state will also have to begin flexing muscles it has long forgotten how to use, whether in drawing up an independent agricultural policy, negotiating our own trade deals or deciding how to manage migration from the rest of Europe.
For the time being, other pressing political issues and ambitious social reform plans will simply have to wait.
