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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Kevin Rawlinson

Boris Johnson to seek 14 October election if rebels succeed, says government source – as it happened

Closing summary

We’re going to close down this live blog now, here’s a summary of the day’s events:

  • The prime minister will seek to hold a general election on 14 October if Parliament votes to hand control of the legislative timetable to the opposition on Tuesday, a government source said. Boris Johnson claimed Brussels would not engage until the possibility of legislation blocking a no-deal Brexit or a reversal of the whole process was removed and called for MPs to back him.
  • He sought to ramp up the pressure on those Tory MPs minded not to do so as the Commons prepares to debate legislation designed to prevent a no-deal Brexit. MPs were left in no doubt that Tuesday’s vote would be treated as a confidence vote by No 10 and the consequences for voting against Downing Street would be withdrawal of the whip. The work and pensions secretary, Amber Rudd, was one of those who urged Johnson not to go down that road.
  • In an address outside Downing Street, Johnson indicated he would refuse to ask Brussels for a delay to Brexit, even if a law was passed requiring him to do so. Johnson said there were “no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay. We are leaving on 31 October - no ifs or buts”. That was despite plans to vote tomorrow on whether or not to legally bind him to such a course of action, should he fail to convince Parliament to back either a withdrawal agreement or a no-deal Brexit. Ministers have previously refused to rule out the government ignoring the rule of law on the issue.
  • The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, insisted he would be ready for a general election. Earlier in the day, he had said he would back calling an early vote in any circumstances. However, Jenny Chapman – a shadow Brexit minister – later said Labour would not support a vote that took place after a no-deal Brexit on 31 October. The SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, committed her party to backing any vote before that date too.
  • The former chancellor, Philip Hammond, challenged the prime minister to set out details of his plan to negotiate an alternative to the backstop. There have been reports that, despite Johnson claiming to have made progress, officials on the continent believe little or nothing has been achieved. The Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, also said British proposals were not satisfactory.

If you’d like to read yet more, my colleagues Peter Walker and Jessica Elgot have the full story:

Update: A final piece of breaking news emerged shortly after I posted this summary. Hammond’s local Conservative Association says it has reselected him as its candidate:

Updated

The self-styled “yellow-vest” protester, James Goddard, has been arrested outside a Labour rally in Salford where Jeremy Corbyn spoke, amid clashes between the Labour leader’s supporters and rightwing activists.

My colleague, Lucinda Campbell, reports that Goddard was arrested and taken into custody after a car was obstructed leaving the venue in Salford’s Media City. A Greater Manchester police spokesman said:

Shortly before 8pm on Monday 2 September 2019, police arrested a 30-year-old man on suspicion of breach of the peace. The arrest was made following the conclusion of an event being held at the Lowry Theatre, Salford. The man remains in custody for questioning.

About 1,400 people attended the event at the Lowry Lyric Theatre that featured speeches from Corbyn and the Labour frontbenchers John McDonnell, Diane Abbott, Rebecca Long-Bailey and Angela Rayner.

Several protesters, both men and women dressed in black, bore British and English flags. One of the men said: “We voted to leave on 23 June, accept that you lost.”

The crowd chanted back, “Nazi scum off our streets”, “Say no to fascism” and repeatedly sang in solidarity, “Oh, Jeremy Corbyn”, applauding as police eventually arrested 30-year-old Goddard. He remains in custody on suspicion of breach of peace.

Updated

Graham Brady, the former chair of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee, has claimed that Boris Johnson is “very keen” to avoid a general election.

Brady said the prime minister had given a “very good speech” to his party colleagues in Downing Street before he addressed the nation outside. Speaking afterwards, Brady said Johnson had “set a very clear course” of things he wanted to achieve domestically, as well as trying to get a Brexit deal.

He said he’s very keen not to have an election. I think it’s important we get on and make some progress with both the crucial issue of our exit from the European Union but there are many many other important things to do.

He talked about the funding for schools, the new hospital refurbishments, many, many challenges we need to get on with.

At around the same time as Johnson was addressing the nation, a senior government source was briefing journalists on the date the prime minister would seek to hold a general election, should MPs vote against him tomorrow. Opponents have accused Johnson of “doing everything he can to bring about an election, while claiming it’s the last thing he wants”.

This evening, some MPs have been making clear their resolve remains strong (see: 8.19pm). BuzzFeed’s Alex Wickham has a little more on the numbers expected to rebel:

Not expected to vote against the government is the Brexit-supporting Labour MP, Kate Hoey:

Meanwhile, the DUP leader, Arlene Foster, has said the focus should be on Brexit, rather than a potential general election.

What we should be concentrating on is getting a deal to leave the European Union in an orderly fashion.

But if we are in the realms of a general election, we will of course stand on our record of delivery through the confidence and supply [deal], the fact we have delivered a billion pounds here to the people of Northern Ireland and indeed are building on now, speaking to the Chancellor around the spending round which is coming on Wednesday, so we’ll stand on a record of delivery, we’ll stand on a record of standing four-square for the union.

Political parties in Northern Ireland cannot be afraid of elections and we are not afraid of elections, but we don’t believe it is the right time because what we should be concentrating on is getting a deal.

A no-deal Brexit would mean “damage and danger” to the peace process in Northern Ireland, Corbyn has said. He also spoke about the challenges of climate change and the impact of the government’s austerity measures.

Whenever this campaign begins, and you never know it might be almost upon us, we know what we’ve got to do.

We’ve got to be united as a party and a movement, united in our determination to prevent a no-deal Brexit, for ensuring we come to an agreement in the future but deal with the injustice and the inequalities that exist in Britain and unite people around our programme which is one of delivering the houses, the jobs, the schools, the hospitals and above all that sense of hope in our community.

With threats of withdrawal of the whip being made against those Tory MPs who refuse to back the government over a no-deal Brexit tomorrow, this will be an night of introspection for many. Their resolve appears to be holding, my colleague Jessica Elgot reports:

Corbyn has accused Johnson of “threatening people with a no-deal Brexit if he doesn’t get his way in parliament”.

I know people voted both ways in the referendum, obviously. I know people have different views about these things. obviously. But I simply say this: People didn’t vote to lose their jobs, didn’t vote to see our environmental standards, workers’ rights, consumer protections ripped up.

They voted because they were angry about many things and they voted as they did to try and protect themselves as best they could.

Our purpose is to challenge this government on a no-deal Brexit, our purpose is to try to protect jobs and living standards, try to ensure that this country doesn’t run headlong into the arms of Donald Trump and a trade deal with the United States.

And he has added:

The idea that Donald Trump and Boris Johnson are some kind of populist icons on behalf of the poorest and most downtrodden people actually is something beyond a misnomer.

There is wealth funding these parties, there is wealth looking after itself and there is wealth that wants a no-deal Brexit, that the hedge funds might prosper as a result.

We will challenge them in parliament tomorrow and we will continue that challenge.

Updated

The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has been addressing the party’s rally in Salford this evening. He has told supporters:

I don’t know about you, but at 6pm I was watching on the television and waiting with great expectation. The expectation was possibly overrated, it was the BBC commentary awaiting the arrival of the speaker to a podium outside Downing Street and it was a bit like Test Match Special on a wet day when there is no cricket but nevertheless they talk and talk and talk.

The statement itself didn’t amount to very much, in fact it amounted to almost nothing at all except there was quite a powerful subliminal message there.

As with the years of Theresa May, it’s all about the Tory party. It’s the Tory party talking to the Tory party about the Tory party and the Tory party’s opportunities for the future.

Well I simply say this: Tories can talk to each other about their party, they can talk to each other about their chances, or otherwise, of survival, and all the tax cuts they’ll give to the rich and all the other things that they do.

We, on the other hand, are out there with the people trying to bring about social justice and equality in our society.

Adam Wagner, a human rights lawyer who writes for the Guardian, is among those to point out that many Jewish people would be unable to vote if a general election was called for 14 October:

Updated

Speaking to the cabinet earlier, Boris Johnson said EU leaders had clarity on the UK’s position but that he believed negotiations were being “held back” because Brussels believed parliament would find a way to stop a no-deal scenario or cancel Brexit altogether. A senior government official said:

The impression he was getting from EU leaders was that they will not engage until the prospect of parliament cancelling the referendum was ended.

MPs are effectively considering tomorrow whether to hand control of the negotiations to Jeremy Corbyn. That would be shooting ourselves in the foot and, if Conservative MPs help him to make no deal illegal tomorrow and therefore create another pointless delay, the government’s negotiating position will be wrecked.

What they are effectively voting for is to hold a rapid election. And they will have to explain what they are doing.

On Tuesday, if opposition MPs vote to take control of parliamentary business, Tory MPs have been told they will have the whip withdrawn because the government sees that as an effective confidence motion.

Senior rebel Tories and Labour MPs are sceptical Johnson would stick to his word and call an election before 31 October, though government sources ruled out any chance of changing the date after MPs had voted. The source said:

A PM would need to be in place before [the] European council [meeting] on 17 October. If you are to have any chance of securing a deal, you must have an election before then and the PM has been very clear he wants to get a deal.

I know there has been speculation but that is not our mind, it is nowhere near our thinking. We can rule out the idea of any election taking place after the European council [meeting].

Downing Street is understood to be confident it can win a vote for a general election, though it is still unclear if it could achieve a two-thirds majority if a significant number of Tory and Labour MPs refuse to back the election with no guarantees that a no-deal Brexit can be avoided. A No 10 source said:

Jeremy Corbyn has been very explicit he will back a general election no matter what. The PM would of course expect Conservative MPs to vote for it.

Updated

The pro-remain Best for Britain campaign has attacked the prime minister after his address outside No 10 this evening. The Labour MP, David Lammy, who supports the campaign, has said:

The prime minister has made this statement purely because his attempt to bully those Conservative MPs who have been standing up to him has failed. They’ve chosen country over party.

Tomorrow, MPs from across the House of Commons will get the ball rolling to stop a disastrous no-deal Brexit.

There’s no mandate for no-deal and Boris Johnson knows this. He will fail.

Its chief executive, Naomi Smith, added:

Boris Johnson said MPs trying to get an extension beyond 31 October were ‘chopping the legs out from under the UK position’. The brutal truth is that Johnson and his cabal of no-deal zealots are chopping the legs from underneath UK democracy.

They must be stopped, no-deal must be stopped, Brexit must be stopped – in Johnson’s own words, no ifs, no buts. Johnson’s speech was being drowned out by protesters at the gates of Downing Street – let him be in no doubt that those voices are only going to get louder.

Updated

The US will play a constructive role in a Brexit that “encourages stability”, its vice-president, Mike Pence, has said. Speaking at a joint press conference with Ireland’s deputy prime minister, Simon Coveney, after touching down in the nation, he said:

We will continue to work closely with our partners in Ireland and the United Kingdom to support a Brexit plan that encourages stability and also one which keeps the strong foundation forged by the Good Friday agreement.

We understand these are complex issues.

Pence confirmed he would be meeting Boris Johnson in the next few days and that “better understanding” the Northern Ireland issues would help promote a deal.

I will be in the UK meeting with Prime Minister Boris Johnson in just a few days but I think the opportunity to better understand Ireland’s perspective and unique needs, particularly with regard to the northern border, will make us even better equipped to hopefully play a constructive role that when Brexit occurs, it will occur in a way that reflects stability and addresses the unique relationship between the UK and the Republic of Ireland.

He declined to answer a question over whether the US would commit to a trade deal with the UK if it damaged the peace process in Northern Ireland.

Updated

In his address outside No 10 about an hour ago, Johnson called on MPs to vote with the government tomorrow, hinting that not doing so would make an election more likely. He said:

We will not accept any attempt to go back on our promises or scrub that referendum.

Armed and fortified with that conviction, I believe we will get a deal at that crucial summit in October; a deal that parliament will certainly be able to scrutinise.

And, in the meantime, let our negotiators get on with their work without that sword of Damocles over their necks. And without an election, which I don’t want and you don’t want.

Johnson plans 14 October general election, according to government source

The prime minister will ask MPs to back a general election for 14 October should a cross-party rebel alliance vote to take control of parliament tomorrow, according to a government source.

Boris Johnson is set to treat a vote by opposition MPs to take control of the legislative agenda as an effective confidence vote.

A government motion is set to be tabled by the government for a snap general election if rebels are successful in passing a motion to take control of the order paper.

There would then be a vote on Wednesday on a new general election under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, which requires a two-thirds majority.

Updated

The shadow business secretary, Rebecca Long-Bailey, has told the Labour rally:

It’s not about Brexit, it’s about taking away the voices of our people. We know we are closer to power now than we ever have been and we have got the fight of our lives on our hands because every tool in Boris Johnson’s box, he will pull out.

Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, added:

We are here today at a pivotal political moment, a crucial moment in our political history as a country and it’s not about Brexit, it is not about whether you voted to leave or remain, it’s about what sort of country you want this to be.

She described Johnson as a “rotten prime minister” adding: “The sooner we get him out the better.”

About 1,400 people have gathered to listen to an address from Jeremy Corbyn and other senior Labour figures at the Lyric Theatre, in Salford Media City. My colleague, Lucinda Campbell, writes.

The prime minister claimed he did not want one but speculation about a snap election persists. And, with Boris Johnson remaining adamant that the 31 October Brexit deadline will be honoured, Corbyn is expected to tell the crowd of Labour supporters that the party plans to stop a no-deal Brexit by continuing to push for a general election.

Jonathan Marsland, 36, who works in local government in Manchester, favours legislative means of stopping no-deal:

Labour’s position has been incredibly nuanced from the start. We do need a general election, but only once legislation has been passed to stop no-deal.

Marie O’Neill, a 63-year-old community psychiatric nurse, said:

We desperately need a change of government and a second referendum with remain on the ballot paper.

Addressing the rally, the shadow education secretary, Angela Rayner, said she thought Johnson had “bottled it”. Referencing the prime minister’s speech in Downing Street, she said: “I think he looked pathetic.” She told the crowd:

I’ve got a message for Boris Johnson: We don’t believe you when you say you’re going to give us the money for our schools and our police and our communities. The reason we don’t believe you is because you were there implementing it for the last 10 years.

Updated

Scotland’s chief prosecutor is to intervene in two legal challenges against Boris Johnson suspending parliament, claiming prorogation is an abuse of power, it has been announced.

The Scottish government said James Wolffe, the lord advocate, has lodged applications to join the legal actions in the court of session in Edinburgh and the Royal Courts of Justice, which aim to block prorogation.

The Scottish case is due to be heard in full on Tuesday morning before Lord Doherty in the court of session. The case in London led by Gina Miller, whose legal action forced Theresa May’s government to put the article 50 application to a vote at Westminster, is being heard on Thursday 5 September.

Miller’s case has already been joined by Sir John Major, the former Conservative prime minister, and Tom Watson, the deputy Labour leader, while the case in Edinburgh has been filed by Joanna Cherry QC, a Scottish National party MP, and 74 other MPs and peers, along with the Good Law Project.

The Scottish government said Wolffe would argue that prorogation was intended to prevent scrutiny of the UK government’s Brexit plans and was, therefore, an abuse of power.

Mike Russell, the Scottish government’s Brexit secretary, said:

Accountable government is a fundamental principle of our democracy. This attempt to suspend the UK parliament at such a critical time is a clear attempt to silence opposition and must be resisted.

The democratic wishes of the Scottish people and the Scottish parliament should not be allowed to be brushed aside as if they did not matter.

Updated

Here is some more reaction to the Boris Johnson statement from journalists and commentators.

From the BBC’s Andrew Neil

From Matthew Goodwin, an academic specialising in explaining populism

From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg

From BuzzFeed’s Alex Wickham

From the Economist’s Anne McElvoy

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

That’s all from me for today.

I’m handing over now to my colleague Kevin Rawlinson.

From Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon

Full text of Johnson's statement

Here is the full text of Boris Johnson’s statement.

Five weeks ago I spoke to you from these steps and said that this government was not going to hang around and that we would not wait until Brexit day - October 31 - to deliver on the priorities of the British people.

And so I am proud to say that on Wednesday Chancellor Sajid Javid is going to set out the most ambitious spending round for more than a decade.

I said I wanted to make your streets safer – and that is why we are recruiting another 20,000 police officers.

I said I wanted to improve your hospital and reduce the waiting times at your GP.

And so we are doing 20 new hospital upgrades in addition to the extra £34bn going into the NHS.

And I said I wanted every child in this country to have a superb education and that’s why I announced last week that we are levelling up funding across the country and spending much more next year in both primary and secondary schools.

And it is to push forward this agenda on these and many other fronts that we need a Queen’s speech in October.

While leaving due time to debate Brexit and other matters.

And as we come to that Brexit deadline I am encouraged by the progress we are making.

In the last few weeks the chances of a deal have been rising, I believe, for three reasons. They can see that we want a deal.

They can see that we have a clear vision for our future relationship with the EU - something that has perhaps not always been the case.

And they can see that we are utterly determined to strengthen our position by getting ready to come out regardless, come what may.

But if there is one thing that can hold us back in these talks it is the sense in Brussels that MPs may find some way to cancel the referendum.

Or that tomorrow MPs will vote – with Jeremy Corbyn – for yet another pointless delay. I don’t think they will. I hope that they won’t.

But if they do they will plainly chop the legs out from under the UK position and make any further negotiation absolutely impossible.

And so I say, to show our friends in Brussels that we are united in our purpose, MPs should vote with the government against Corbyn’s pointless delay.

I want everybody to know – there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay. We are leaving on 31 October, no ifs or buts.

We will not accept any attempt to go back on our promises or scrub that referendum.

Armed and fortified with that conviction I believe we will get a deal at that crucial summit in October

A deal that parliament will certainly be able to scrutinise.

And in the meantime let our negotiators get on with their work Without that sword of Damocles over their necks.

And without an election, which I don’t want and you don’t want.

Let us get on with the people’s agenda – fighting crime, improving the NHS, boosting schools, cutting the cost of living, and unlocking talent and opportunity across the entire United Kingdom.

With infrastructure education and technology It is a massive agenda. Let’s come together and get it done – and let’s get Brexit done by 31 October.

Updated

Boris Johnson says he will never ask EU for further Brexit delay

Here is the key quote from Boris Johnson.

MPs should vote with the government against Corbyn’s pointless delay.

I want everybody to know there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay. We are leaving on 31 October - no ifs or buts.

We will not accept any attempt to go back on our promises or scrub that referendum.

This means Johnson is saying, if the Benn bill were passed, he would refuse to be bound by it.

That implies he would opt of an election as an alternative - even though Johnson also insisted that he did not want one.

Boris Johnson has now finished. He did not make an explicit threat to call an election on 14 October if defeated tomorrow, as ITV’s Robert Peston predicted. (See 5.59pm.)

But the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg is also being briefed with exactly the same message.

And Johnson did say that under no circumstances would he delay Brexit - implying that, if MPs were to pass the Benn bill, he would default to an election.

I will post a summary of Johnson’s comments shortly.

Updated

Boris Johnson's statement

Boris Johnson says when he became PM he said he would not wait before making changes.

That is why he has made a series of policy announcements, he says.

It is to push forward these measures that he needs a Queen’s speech.

He says he has been encouraged by the progress being made towards a Brexit deal.

He says there are three reasons why it has become more likely. The EU can see the UK wants a deal, he says.

It can see the UK has a vision for Brexit.

And it can see the UK is preparing for no-deal.

He says MPs will chop the legs off his negotiating position if they vote tomorrow to rule out no-deal.

He says there are no circumstances in which he will delay Brexit.

Armed with this conviction, he believes he will get a deal at the EU summit in October, he says.

He says negotiators should be allowed to get on with their work – without an election.

I don’t want an election and you don’t want one either, he says.

And that’s it.

Updated

The Sky News helicopter has footage of the party for Tory MPs in the Number 10 garden.

No 10 garden
No 10 garden Photograph: Sky News

Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, has put out this statement about the Benn bill.

This bill will stop Boris Johnson forcing through a reckless and damaging no-deal Brexit on 31 October.

This week could be parliament’s last chance to stop a no-deal Brexit. MPs must act in the national interest and support this bill.

From my colleague Severin Carrell

This is from ITV’s Robert Peston.

An election on 14 October would be on a Monday. Elections are normally held on Thursday, but there is no rule saying that has to be the case and there have been general elections on non-Thursdays in the past. The last one not on a Thursday was in 1931.

What the Benn bill ruling out no-deal Brexit on 31 October says

Here is a summary of the main points from the bill designed to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October - or the EU (withdrawal( No 6) bill, to give it its proper title. (See 5.29pm.)

It sets two new deadlines.

19 October 2019

Under the bill, by this date the prime minister would have to either:

  • Get MPs to pass a withdrawal agreement
  • Get MPs to pass a motion agreeing to a no-deal Brexit
  • Write to the EU requesting an extension to article 50

The text of the letter that would have to be sent to the president of the European council requesting an extension is set out in a schedule to the bill. It contains the second deadline.

31 January 2020

This would be the new date for the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, if the extension proposed in the bill were granted by the EU.

The bill says, if both sides agree a deal after 19 October but before 31 January, Brexit could happen sooner.

But it does not say what would happen if there were still no agreement by the end of January.

Hilary Benn
Hilary Benn Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

According to Sky’s Beth Rigby, Boris Johnson won’t be announcing a general election tonight in his statement at 6pm.

Boris Johnson to make statement outside Number 10 at 6pm

Boris Johnson is going to make a statement outside Number 10 at 6pm, it has been announced.

Opposition and Tory rebel MPs publish bill designed to rule out no-deal Brexit on 31 October

Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Commons Brexit committee, has just released the text of the bill that Tory rebels and opposition MPs want to use to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.

Rudd urges Johnson not to deselect Tory rebels opposing no-deal Brexit

Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, has spoken out against Boris Johnson’s plan to remove the whip from any Tory MP who votes against the government tomorrow on the no-deal Brexit issue and to thus effectively deselect them ahead of the next general election. In an interview with the Spectator’s Katy Balls, Rudd said it would be unfair to punish remain-voting Tories like this when the same thing did not happen to MPs who repeatedly voted against Theresa May’s deal. Asked if Johnson’s plan worried her, Rudd replied said:

It does and I have made my views clear to the prime minister that we should not be a party that is trying to remove from our party two former chancellors, a number of ex-cabinet ministers, that the way to hold our party together and to get a deal is to bring them onside and explain to them what we’re trying to do and why.

I don’t think it’s fair either to consider removing the whip from a group of people who oppose no deal, which is not the government position, but as a legitimate Conservative position, and not to remove the whip from people who have consistently voted against the withdrawal agreement and may yet vote against the agreement that Boris Johnson brings back before 31 October. So I’m really urging the government to think very carefully about taking such a dramatic step.

Amber Rudd arriving at the Cabinet Office for a meeting earlier.
Amber Rudd arriving at the Cabinet Office for a meeting earlier. Photograph: Neil Hall/EPA

From ITV’s Robert Peston

Here is a question from below the line attracting some interest.

User avatar for Katherine1984

Does anyone know which would take precedence if back-benchers want to set about the process of their vote to stop No Deal tomorrow and the PM wants to call for a vote on a GE under the FTPA?

Is it up to the Speaker to decide or does the PM get preference under established procedures?

As far as we know, the rebels plan to use standing order 24 tomorrow to trigger a debate on a motion that would allow them to take charge of the order paper to free up time to pass the bill intended to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.

The Commons sits at 2.30pm tomorrow. But first there will be Foreign Office questions, and then we are expecting at least two statements, from Boris Johnson on the G7 and from Michael Gove on no-deal planning. The application for an SO24 debate would come after the statements, and then MPs would debate it the SO24 motion for up to three hours.

According to Alex Wickham at BuzzFeed, the rebels and their opposition colleagues are divided as to whether to try to the pass the legislation on Tuesday night, or whether to do it on Tuesday or Wednesday.

An SO24 debate has precedence over other business. And the motion that would be put to a vote at the end of the debate, the one allowing the rebels to take charge of the order paper, would prioritise the bill to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

So the no-deal debate should happen before any debate on a general election.

Pound falls as rumours of snap general election intensify

Rumours of a snap general election have sent the pound tumbling on the international currency markets, as investors brace for further political turmoil as the Brexit deadline edges closer.

Sterling has slumped by almost a cent against the US dollar and sold-off sharply against the euro, sliding below $1.21 and €1.10 as election speculation spreads through the City.

Analysts said the pound could drop further as the uncertainty unleashed by an election might further damage the economy or make no-deal Brexit increasingly likely, but said any surge in support for remain parties could cause sterling to rally.

However, some analysts remained sceptical an election could make matters any clearer. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at the financial trading group IG, said:

Anyone who thinks that an election will solve the UK’s political crisis has not been paying attention over the past three years.

Sterling is close to the lowest levels on record, having slumped whenever the chance of Britain leaving without a deal mounts. The pound is down by about 5% on the US dollar this year and is still worth about 19% less than on the eve of the EU referendum in 2016.

Sajid Javid, the chancellor, on his way 10 Downing Street this afternoon.
Sajid Javid, the chancellor, on his way 10 Downing Street this afternoon. Photograph: Neil Hall/EPA

These are from Sky’s Sam Coates.

The briefing paper as reported by Coates goes some way towards answering some of the questions posed by Philip Hammond. (See 3.53pm.)

But Hammond will not be impressed by Coates’ latest revelation about the “draft legal text”.

In a speech in Liverpool this morning Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, said a no-deal Brexit would increase poverty. He explained:

To stop a no-deal Brexit is important because poverty otherwise will get worse, food prices will go up, fuel prices will go up and therefore people’s cost of living will be affected and, of course, people who are giving money to food banks will find it more difficult to do so because they themselves will be under pressure. We have got to stop a no-deal Brexit in its tracks.

Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, has been saying that Tory MPs need to show “a little bit of discipline” this week. On a school visit in Bromley, he said:

I think that what people need to do is show a little bit of steel and a little bit of discipline.

We all got elected as members of parliament as Conservatives to deliver on Britain’s exit from the European Union. And we all stood on that same manifesto saying that we would do so.

And we need to make sure that the prime minister has the very best hand when he goes to Europe, as he has been doing, to negotiate for a deal that will pass through parliament. And Theresa May’s deal quite clearly would not pass through parliament. So we need to get something that means that it will do.

In an interview on Sky News earlier, Williamson, a former chief whip and former defence secretary, also backed the threat to remove the Tory whip from any MP voting against the government to back legislation intended to rule out a no-deal Brexit.

The SNP MP Stewart McDonald accused him of hypocrisy.

Updated

Hammond challenges Boris Johnson to show what progress being made towards replacing backstop

Philip Hammond, the former chancellor and one of the leading Conservative rebels backing moves to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, has written to Boris Johnson challenging him to give details of what the government is doing to negotiate an alternative to the backstop with the EU. Hammond says he and his colleagues had been hoping to discuss these points with Johnson today before their meeting with him was cancelled.

The letter, and the six questions it contains, are prompted by fears that any progress towards a deal with the EU is minimal, or non-existent. Johnson has repeatedly talked up the progress he claims to have made in his recent visits to Berlin and to Paris, and at the G7 summit in Biarritz.

But according to a report in the Sunday Times (paywall) yesterday, based on “a note of diplomatic briefings by French officials, circulating in London,” the French do not believe Johnson is getting closer to a deal. In his story Tim Shipman says:

Contrary to claims by Downing Street that Johnson has made progress at the EU level, the note says that his Brexit negotiator has so far presented “nothing” to Brussels and “nothing of note” has occurred so far in the discussions.

Philip Hammond
Philip Hammond Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA

In an interview with the Sunday Times (paywall) yesterday Boris Johnson refused to rule out creating hundreds of new pro-Brexit peers to stop the Lords legislating to stop a no-deal Brexit. Norman Fowler, the Lord Speaker of the Lords, says “nothing could be worse”.

Fowler takes a particular interest in this because he chaired a committee that came up with ideas, which are slowly being implemented, intended to reduce the size of the Lords.

In reality Johnson’s threat was an empty one. In theory the government could ask the Queen to create hundreds of new peers, but the House of Lords only normally allows two new peers at most to be introduced every day and the government does not have a majority in the Lords to change its procedures. If Johnson were to create 100 new pro-Brexit peers, it would take until Christmas before they could all take their seats.

The latest fear amongst anti-Brexit MPs is that Boris Johnson could announce a general election for before 31 October, but then shift the date to after, ITV’s Paul Brand reports.

The Scottish parliament’s information centre has published a 57-page briefing (pdf) on a no-deal Brexit today. “Potential border checks present the most likely immediate form of disruption following a no-deal Brexit which might result in long queues at the UK-EU borders as goods travel through customs and are subject to standards checks,” it says.

Owen Smith, who unsuccessfully challenged Jeremy Corbyn for the Labour leadership in 2016, says Labour should not be backing an early election.

If you want a friend in politics, get a dog, Harry Truman is reputed to have said. With his majority set to disappear this week, Boris Johnson has taken up Truman’s suggestion. (See 2.27pm.) According to Johnson’s partner Carrie Symonds, their new Jack Russell is called Dilyn.

Rees-Mogg dismisses doctor's claim no-deal Brexit could be put lives at risk

Jacob Rees-Mogg has accused a doctor of “fear-mongering” after he challenged the Commons Leader to say how many people he would accept could die as a result of a no-deal Brexit. As the Press Association reports, Dr David Nicholl, a consultant neurologist involved in the Operation Yellowhammer report into the impact of a no-deal Brexit on the NHS, called in to LBC’s Ring Rees-Mogg show to ask what “mortality rate” he would accept if the UK crashed out of the EU without a deal. Nicholl asked:

Having been involved in writing the plans for mitigation and having whistle-blown because I felt they were unsafe, what level of mortality rate are you willing to accept in the light of a no-deal Brexit?

Rees-Mogg replied:

I don’t think there’s any reason to suppose that a no-deal Brexit should lead to a mortality rate. I think this is the worst excess of Project Fear and I’m surprised that a doctor in your position would be fear-mongering in this way on public radio.

As PA reports, Nicholl told the prominent Brexiter:

Can I remind you I wrote the plans of mitigation?

But Rees-Mogg replied:

Well you didn’t write very good plans if you hadn’t worked out how to mitigate, had you? It’s fortunate they are being written by other people now who are serious about mitigating, rather than remoaners.

Nicholl said people could die because of potential problems with access to drugs and radioactive isotopes in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Rees-Mogg said there were “reserve plans to fly drugs in if necessary”. He said:

This is a major focus of government policy. I think it’s deeply irresponsible, Dr Nicholl, of you to call in and try to spread fear across the country.

I think it’s typical of remainer campaigners and you should be quite ashamed, I’m afraid.

UPDATE: Originally, based on the PA report, I said the caller was David Nicol, a consultant urologist. But in fact he was David Nicholl, a consultant neurologist. I’ve corrected that now.

Updated

Downing Street has a new dog after Boris Johnson and his girlfriend, Carrie Symonds, took delivery of a rescue puppy, the Press Association reports. The Jack Russell – which has yet to be named – was carried into Number 10 to meet its new owners this morning. The rescue dog came from the Friends of Animals Wales charity, which said the “gorgeous pup will be living his best life with Carrie and the prime minister at their Downing Street home”. The prime minister’s spokesman said:

They are a fantastic charity run by volunteers who work around the clock to make a difference to animals.

The prime minister has always been a passionate supporter of animal welfare and has always believed that animals should always get the right start in life.

That’s why the government has taken such significant action in this area, and that obviously includes introducing Lucy’s Law.

A 15-week-old Jack Russell-cross puppy adopted by Boris Johnson and his partner Carrie Symonds arriving in Downing Street this morning.
A 15-week-old Jack Russell-cross puppy adopted by Boris Johnson and his partner Carrie Symonds arriving in Downing Street this morning. Photograph: Dominic Lipinski/PA

Updated

If early election made no-deal Brexit inevitable, Labour would oppose it, says shadow minister

Earlier today Jeremy Corbyn suggested that Labour would back an early election any circumstances (see 12.04pm and 12.06pm) - even though Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, told the Andrew Marr Show yesterday that the party had been thinking “long and hard” about the risk of Boris Johnson calling a general election for after a no-deal Brexit on 31 October.

On the World at One Jenny Chapman, a shadow Brexit minister (ie, a member of Starmer’s team), said that if a general election were scheduled to take place after a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, Labour would not support it. She explained:

Our mission here is to to prevent no deal. We do want a general election ... Our mission is very clear, and it is about preventing no deal. If that means that a general election cannot happen at that particular point, then stopping no deal must come first ... This isn’t for the benefit of the Labour party. This is about preventing mass unemployment.

Asked if this meant Labour could vote against an early election, Chapman replied:

Theoretically. But more likely having a general election becomes one of the few ways that we are able to prevent no deal.

Labour says it is confident there is a majority for the planned bill designed to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October. Assuming that the bill passes, and assuming that it is robust enough to do what it is meant to do, in those circumstances the Labour objection to an election after 31 October might no longer apply.

Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the easiest way to get around the rule saying the next election should not take place until 2022 (five years after the last one) would be for two-thirds of MPs to vote for an early election. Alternatively, the government could lose a vote of no confidence, and an election would take place if no alternative government won a confidence vote within 14 days.

Alternatively, the government could pass a new bill to amend the FTPA to allow an early election.

But, given that Boris Johnson only has a majority of one, and some Tories oppose a no-deal Brexit, he would not be able to use any of these mechanisms to call an early election without assistance from Labour.

Jenny Chapman
Jenny Chapman Photograph: Martin Godwin/The Guardian

Updated

Sturgeon says SNP would back early election before 31 October

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, says the SNP would back an early election - provided it took place before 31 October.

Irish PM says current UK alternatives to backstop not satisfactory

Leo Varadkar, the Irish taoiseach (prime minister), has said that he expects to have a meeting with Boris Johnson next week. He told RTE that he was always willing to listen to any proposal from the British PM, but that he had yet to hear of a convincing alternative to the backstop. He explained:

The backstop is a means to an end. It is there to ensure that we continue to have frictionless trade north and south, that there is no physical infrastructure, no checks, no controls, no tariffs. We want that to continue to be the case. It has been the case since 1992, we want that to continue.

Of course, I would listen to any proposals that the British prime minister may have to achieve that by an alternative means and we provide for alternative arrangements in the joint political declaration.

The difficulty is that anything we have seen so far when it comes to alternative arrangements do something very different.

They just manage a border, they facilitate tariffs, they facilitate checks, they facilitate controls but try to do it in a way that is invisible and unobtrusive, and that is better than nothing but it is not the outcome that we want to achieve.

Leo Varadkar
Leo Varadkar Photograph: François Lenoir/Reuters

Jean-Claude Piris, a former head of the European council’s legal service whose views are generally an accurate reflection of Brussels’ thinking, said last week that Britain was heading for “a really deep political and probably a deep constitutional crisis”.

Following Michael Gove’s refusal this weekend to rule out ignoring any law passed by parliament to stop no deal, Piris has now warned that the “divisive effect” of Brexit means democracy and the rule of law in Britain are slipping.

The Guardian’s Jennifer Rankin reckons Boris Johnson’s controversial decision to prorogue parliament will make it harder for the EU27 to agree a Brexit deal, partly because they do not want to be seen to be rewarding that kind of behaviour.

Tomorrow's vote will be treated as confidence matter, says No 10

This is from a Number 10 source,

The PM is hosting all Tory MPs at Number 10 this evening. He is taking the opportunity to see cabinet as well – the cabinet calling notice should have gone out – and they will discuss the government’s response to MPs seeking to take control of the legislative agenda away from the government and handing it to the opposition and Corbyn without the consent of the people. The view is that tomorrow’s possible vote is an expression of confidence in the government’s negotiating position to secure a deal and will be treated as such.

Updated

These are from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

The vice-president of the European parliament has said she thinks it is unlikely that there will be a new Brexit deal at the next European council summit on 17 October.

Mairead McGuinness said the EU would not succumb to threats from the UK and that Boris Johnson’s approach “to take back control in a more boisterous way” than Theresa May was not the way to “yield results”.

In an interview with RTE Radio’s Sean O’Rourke programme the Irish MEP confirmed talks were intensifying in Brussels, but she said they should not mischaracterised as renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement.

Under the process, Michel Barnier would need to get a new mandate from 27 EU leaders, and in the present febrile atmosphere there was no prospect of change, she told RTE. She said:

I don’t see why [the EU would compromise] because, if you look at what that would involve, it would be mean that the democratically elected leaders of Europe would yield to a very unhelpful pressure that the British prime minister is heaping upon them, almost threatening that: ‘Look, we are going either way and you are going to have to deal with us.’

McGuinness said she believed Johnson’s preferred option was no deal.

Updated

Boris Johnson to chair cabinet this afternoon - as speculation about imminent election intensifies

Boris Johnson has called a unexpected meeting of the cabinet today at 5pm, multiple Whitehall sources have confirmed. The prime minister is then expected to address Conservative MPs at a summer garden party in Downing Street.

The scheduling of the meeting has sent the rumour mill in Westminster into overdrive about the possibility that the government will set out plans for an snap general election this week.

Though no plans have been confirmed, senior rebel sources believe that Johnson could move as early as Wednesday this week, with a motion tabled the following day which would require the support of two-thirds of MPs.

A vote on the snap poll would come with a commitment that polling day would be before October 31 - though the date would ultimately be in the control of the government.

Updated

A Scottish court has refused leave to appeal against a judge’s decision last week to reject an application for an emergency ban on Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament last week.

On Friday Lord Doherty, sitting in the court of session in Edinburgh, refused a request by lawyers for 75 anti-Brexit MPs and peers for an interim suspension and interim interdict, or injunction, of the prime minister’s decision to prorogue parliament.

In a compromise move, Doherty instead brought forward a full hearing on the main legal case against prorogation from Friday this week to tomorrow.

Joanna Cherry, the Scottish National party MP leading the group drawn from most of Westminster’s opposition parties and coordinated by the Good Law Project, said on Friday that was a victory.

Despite that, the group’s legal team applied earlier this morning for leave to appeal Doherty’s refusal to grant that emergency ban.

Cherry’s lawyers wanted to greatly speed up the appeal process because they expect Doherty will support the UK government’s case that Johnson’s move is legal tomorrow, which will require an urgent appeal at the court of session on Thursday. They worry they could lose time to get the case heard by the supreme court before next Monday, when prorogation could take effect.

The Scottish judiciary tweeted that their application had been denied, and the case will go to a full hearing tomorrow as scheduled.

Updated

Labour sources are playing down the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn backing an early general election without the legislation blocking a no-deal Brexit on the statute book, saying they are “convinced” that there is a majority for this bill.

From Sky’s Sam Coates

Labour sources are not contesting the Sky report saying Jeremy Corbyn would back an early election in all circumstances (see 12.06pm) - which would include MPs failing to pass the bill ruling out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, and which could also include a general election scheduled for after 31 October. “We are the opposition and we always want a general election,” a source said.

Corbyn refuses to rule out backing early election even if bill blocking no-deal fails

Here is the full text of Jeremy Corbyn’s speech.

And this is what he said about the sequencing of the anti no-deal Brexit legislation and then a general election.

So, first we must come together to stop no deal. This week could be our last chance.

We are working with other parties to do everything necessary to pull our country back from the brink.

Then we need a general election.

When a government finds itself without a majority the solution is not to undermine democracy. The solution is to let the people decide, and call a general election.

This implies that the no-deal legislation would have to be passed before Labour could support an early election.

But, when pressed on this point at his Q&A (see 12.04pm) and after (see 12.06pm), Corbyn did not rule out backing an early general election with no deal still on the table.

Updated

Corbyn backs early general election in any circumstances, Sky reports

This is from Sky’s Kate McCann, who was listening to the Jeremy Corbyn speech in Salford.

We may or may not get some clarification from Corbyn’s office later as to whether or not this is the party’s official position. In the past, officials have sometimes had to “clarify” remarks that Corbyn has made unscripted to journalists.

Updated

Corbyn rejects Blair's call for Labour to avoid backing early general election

Corbyn has now finished his Q&A. Here is the main line.

  • Corbyn rejected Tony Blair’s call for Labour to avoid backing an early general election in favour of pushing for a referendum instead. In a speech this morning Blair said an early election could favour Boris Johnson, because of Corbyn’s unpopularity. (See 10.51am.) Corbyn said Labour wanted MPs to pass legislation designed to stop a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, and that he wanted a general election to follow. But he would not say what he would do if the legislation failed, or if Johnson tried to call a general election before the bill became law, or if Johnson proposed an election before 31 October. For an election to take place under the Fixed-Terms Parliaments Act, Labour would almost certainly have to vote in favour, or at least abstain. In the past No 10 sources have hinted that Johnson might try to trigger a general election to take place after the UK leaves the EU on 31 October – a proposal that Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, indicated yesterday Labour would find impossible to support. But Labour would find it much harder to oppose any election scheduled for before 31 October.

Updated

Q: What would you say to Labour leave supporters?

Corbyn says there were leave voters and remain voters at the weekend protests. People are alarmed at the prospect of a no-deal Brexit. He says there were many reasons for people voting leave. But no one voted leave to lose their jobs, or to secure a sweetheart deal favouring the US. So he will fight the next election on his transformative agenda, he says.

He says if the PM continues with his dictatorial approach, Labour will oppose him all the way.

If the PM has lost the support of parliament, it is time for that government to go.

Q: Will Labour back Tory rebels if they propose legislation to prevent no deal?

Corbyn says he has met the leaders of other opposition parties, apart from the Democratic Unionist party. He will work with them to stop a no-deal Brexit. He wrote to all MPs opposed to no deal asking them to back him. He says in another “28 hours or so” we will see what Labour is backing (ie, the text of the rebel bill).

Q: Would you back a general election if it meant the UK might leave the EU without a deal on 31 October?

Corbyn, who took all three questions in one go (as he usually does at press conferences), did not specifically address this question when he answered.

Updated

Corbyn's Q&A

Corbyn is now taking questions.

Q: If there were a second referendum, would Labour back a Labour leave option?

Q: Tony Blair says you should block a general election. But it sounds like you want one. Would you back one at any time?

Corbyn says he will do everything possible to stop a no-deal Brexit.

A vote of no confidence is still on the table.

It is not an either/or, he says.

He says he wants a general election. Labour would propose a referendum, with remain one option, and another decided by parliament.

Corbyn says he wants general election after legislation blocking no-deal gets passed

Corbyn says MPs must come together to stop a no-deal Brexit. He says Labour is working with other parties to achieve that.

After that, there must be a general election, he says.

He says a general election is the democratic way forward.

  • Corbyn says he wants general election after legislation blocking no-deal gets passed.

Corbyn says Labour will end austerity and invest in all regions of the country.

Corbyn says when services like a library, or a Sure Start centre, close, that “saps the spirit from the area”.

Councillors go through horrors trying to work out how they can protect services, given the extent of government cuts, he says.

Corbyn says Labour will have a green industrial revolution, by retrofitting houses, thereby creating jobs and saving energy at the same time.

Corbyn says the north needs a full Crossrail service. It should no longer be held back by poor transport infrastructure, he says.

Corbyn says Labour has a serious plan to get the economy working in every region of the country. It includes a £250bn national transformation fund that will be based outside London, he says.

He says Boris Johnson has announced a £3.6bn towns fund. Labour’s national transformation fund is 70 times bigger, he says.

He also says Labour will use regional banks to devolve economic power.

He says for years politicians have argued that the economy is beyond economic control. That is an idea that favours the super-rich. But it is not true. Through democracy, you can change in whose interests the economy works, he says.

He says Labour will extend workplace democracy.

Corbyn is listing various sectors of the economy that would be hammered by a no-deal Brexit.

He says the Tories favour those who lend and speculate over those who make things.

That is why hedge fund managers are “calling the shots” under Boris Johnson.

Corbyn says, with the lenders and speculators in charge, wealth and opportunity are not shared. We have the worst regional inequality in Europe, he says.

Corbyn says the food industry says a no-deal Brexit will lead to food shortages. The government denies this, he says. But who do you trust? he asks. Those who work in the industry? Or Boris Johnson, who has never worked in the industry.

Updated

Corbyn says a no-deal Brexit would be a Trump-deal Brexit.

A no-deal Brexit is really a Trump-deal Brexit, leading to a one-sided US trade deal that will put us at the mercy of Donald Trump and the big American corporations.

The pally enthusiasm of the US president for Britain’s new prime minister only underlines that in Boris Johnson Trump has found a compliant British leader who will dance to his tune.

Corbyn says he is not willing to accept this.

Updated

Corbyn says Labour would never ignore parliament as Boris Johnson is doing

Corbyn says the demonstrations at the weekend showed people will not accept Boris Johnson trying to close down parliament. He says the government is being run by a “phoney populist cabal”.

Labour would never ignore parliament in this manner, he says.

Updated

Jeremy Corbyn's speech

Jeremy Corbyn is speaking now. He starts by praising Rebecca Long-Bailey as a “brilliant” MP.

(It is widely assumed she is the Corbynites’ favoured candidate for next Labour leader.)

Corbyn says the shadow cabinet will today be finalising its plans for avoiding a no-deal Brexit.

He says where he is speaking is not far from the site of the Peterloo massacre. We should never forget that people died in the struggle for democracy, he says.

Updated

Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary and MP for Salford and Eccles, is now introducing Jeremy Corbyn at the Labour event.

The Jeremy Corbyn speech is due to start soon. There is a live feed at the top of this blog.

Corbyn is in Salford, where is he also chairing a shadow cabinet meeting.

The self-described alternative arrangements commission, chaired by former ministers Greg Hands and Suella Braverman, has increased its campaign to get its July report on potential solutions for the Irish border accepted by the EU, London and Dublin.

“Everybody needs to remember that a vote for a Brexit deal did actually pass in parliament earlier this year. The Brady amendment, calling for alternative arrangements to the Irish backstop, had a majority of 16,” the commission said in a statement announcing updates to its report. It went on:

The reality is that the clock is now ticking rapidly towards a no-deal on October 31st. We ask that all sides, including the British government, the EU and the Irish government, come together and use our tools to agree a new withdrawal agreement.

Braverman, a Brexiter, briefed the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, and his principle adviser Stephanie Riso on Friday.

In its new report, the commission proposes a series of changes to the political declaration that accompanied the withdrawal agreement including a “clear commitment” that “provisions relating to building on the backstop and the single customs territory are removed”.

It also states that the government’s aim is no longer “frictionless trade” with the EU but “as frictionless as possible trade” and that the political declaration needs to clearly state that a free trade agreement is the ultimate “end destination”.

Other new proposals for the declaration include a commitment to ensure the EU “does not introduce hostile new rules” in any transition period.

And it wants changes to ensure the UK’s sovereign defence and security, including the “five eyes” intelligence alliance, is protected.

Updated

Blair tells Labour to avoid early Brexit election because Corbyn's unpopularity could help Tories

Here are the key points from Tony Blair’s speech. I cannot find a text of it online yet, but it will probably appear on his foundation’s website at some point.

  • Blair said Boris Johnson wanted an early election because it would be a “trap” for Labour. Rather than voting for an early election, MPs should insist on a referendum, he said:

If parliament cannot agree, then the right way to consult the people is not through a general election but through a referendum.

That means, as MPs from different parties have agreed, that there should not be a motion of no confidence but rather legislation preventing no deal.

Should the government seek an election, it should be refused in favour of a referendum.

It is counterintuitive for opposition parties to refuse an election. But in this exceptional case, it is vital they do so as a matter of principle, until Brexit is resolved.

Brexit is an issue which stands on its own, was originally decided on its own and should be reconsidered on its own.

The Brexiteers are laying a trap, to seem as if pushed into an election, whilst actively preparing for one.

  • Blair said Jeremy Corbyn’s unpopularity would make an election more appealing to Johnson.

[The Brexiters] know there are two issues in British politics not one: Brexit; and the Corbyn leadership.

It is the interplay between these two issues that has shaped and defined British politics over the past 3-4 years.

Boris Johnson knows that if no-deal Brexit stands on its own as a proposition, it might well fail. But if he mixes up the Brexit question with the Corbyn question in a general election, he could succeed, despite a majority being against a no-deal Brexit, because some may fear a Corbyn premiership more.

Blair acknowledged that the prospect of a no-deal Brexit as an alternative might also make some people more likely than otherwise to vote for Corbyn. But he said that Corbyn should recognise an election as “the elephant trap it is” and he said Corbyn had acted “responsibly” in making legislation to rule out no deal a priority this week, not a confidence vote. He went on:

Leave aside what is fair or unfair: no opposition leader or party with these poll ratings has won an election.

The 2017 result has inoculated the Labour party against a realistic assessment of where it stands.

To be sure, an election is a risk for the Tories. Each Tory candidate will have to sign up to no deal. The Brexit party is a one man unpredictable band. Scotland will be very tough.

But my bet is the Brexit party will collapse to them.

The Labour party at present will struggle; a resurgent Lib Dems will do well, but not well enough to govern. The opposition vote will split. Under our system that delivers a comfortable Tory majority.

  • Blair suggested he was surprised that Johnson did not realise people would question the legitimacy of a no-deal Brexit.

Does no one presently in government, particularly those cabinet members who used to protest against the irresponsibility of such a course, understand the consequence of doing this in circumstances where a large part of the country will regard it as illegitimate?

Democracy depends on a shared sense of legitimacy in decision making.

Legitimacy is not the same as agreement with government. Governments do things people dislike. But outside of the political fringes, most people accept their right to do them.

This is now a crisis of legitimacy.

No one in government even pretends to address these anxieties.

  • He said Brexit was difficult to resolve because there were at least three different versions of it.

Not once have our nation’s leadership explained to the public why Brexit has been so difficult to resolve, which is because there are at least three different versions of it – hard, soft and no-deal and all are vastly different in their implications.

  • He said the Brexit debate was so bitter because it was about values and identity, and not just about the EU.

Brexit has become so bitter because Brexit is not simply about a decision to leave the EU. It is about culture, identity, values, generation. The essence is not about trade. It is about who we are as a nation in the 21st century.

Normally questions of identity play out over time, by evolution, or by staggered points of development in successive elections. But the holding of the referendum turned this into a moment of revolution.

It forced us to confront a division, perhaps better unconfronted.

On the one side are those who feel Britain as they know it is being cast aside, the things they like about Britain disappearing, and in their place, petty political correctness, bureaucratic obsessions, magnified and exemplified by Europe, and, above all, obedience to the god of multi-culturalism at the expense of ‘our own culture’ ...

Those of us on the other side ... we look at Europe today and see 70 years of peace and relative stability.

  • He suggested the second world war was casting “a long shadow over the British psyche” which was not helpful:

[Pro-Brexit] Britain imagines a parallel with the second world war, a period of our history which, rightly, makes us proud. Read the speeches of the Brexiteers and they are replete with references to this feat of glory.

But it casts a long shadow over the British psyche. It creates a longing to live the moment again, to see each new circumstance through the lens of its narrative, a life and death struggle between us and those who would harm us, where against all odds we triumph, a series of Darkest Hours from which we emerge to the sunlit uplands.

Tony Blair speaking at the Institute for Government this morning.
Tony Blair speaking at the Institute for Government this morning. Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA

Updated

It is not just Tory MPs planning to support the legislation intended to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October who are criticising Boris Johnson’s decision to threaten rebels with the withdrawal of the whip. This is what Charles Walker, a Brexiter Tory and acting co-chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, told the Daily Telegraph about Johnson’s strategy. Walker said:

I say, as a committed Brexiteer and acting co-chair of the 1922, that talk of purging good Conservatives, who were serving in government up until late July, from our ranks is extremely unpleasant and the idea is one that must be resisted.

On the Today programme this morning Nick Boles, the former Conservative MP who now sits as an independent having left the party over its hard Brexit policies, said he thought his old party was dead because the “hard right” had taken over.

Asked if the Tory party was finished, he said:

Yes. The hard right has taken over the Conservative party. The Conservative party has fallen prey to an almost religious obsession with the hardest form of Brexit.

Boles also said that there were “some people in the Conservative party who are willing to sell their principles at a pretty low price in exchange for a job in the cabinet despite what they’ve said previously about a no-deal Brexit.”

Updated

Tony Blair is now taking questions. There is a live feed of the event here.

One of the arguments Boris Johnson makes for leaving the EU by 31 October at the latest is that voters are fed up with the Brexit crisis. They just want the whole thing over, he argues, so that the government can focus on other issues, such as health and crime. It is an argument that probably resonates with many people.

In his speech on Brexit this morning Tony Blair, the former Labour prime minister, said this was not a good reason for pressing ahead. He said:

It has suited [the Brexiters] to ride a wave of ‘just do it’ emotion, born of public impatience. You’re bored of Brexit. I’m bored of Brexit. We all are. But no serious political leader would suggest that we should take a decision of this magnitude by an effluxion of patience.

HuffPost has a preview of the Blair speech here. I’ll post a full summary when I’ve seen the text, but the BBC’s Chris Mason has some excerpts.

Tony Blair
Tony Blair. Photograph: Sky News

Updated

Here is a Press Association list of members of the cabinet who have defied the government whip this year - sustaining Philip Hammond’s claim that Boris Johnson is being “staggeringly hypocritical”. (See 8.52am.)

Boris Johnson, prime minister: Voted against Theresa May’s Brexit deal in first two votes

Dominic Raab, foreign secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes

Priti Patel, home secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in all three votes

Grant Shapps, transport secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes

Theresa Villiers, environment secretary: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in all three votes

Esther McVey, housing minister: Voted against May’s Brexit deal twice

Amber Rudd, work and pensions secretary: Abstained in vote on ruling out no-deal Brexit in all circumstances in March, despite government MPs being under orders to vote against

Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the Commons: Voted against May’s Brexit deal in first two votes

Gauke claims there is 95% chance of no-deal Brexit if rebel legislation does not pass

The Tory rebels planning to vote for legislation intended to block a no-deal Brexit on 31 October don’t actually have a leader - Philip Hammond, Sir Oliver Letwin and Rory Stewart are all key players - but they do have a nickname, the Gaukeward squad, making David Gauke, the former justice secretary, at least their eponymous figurehead.

On the Today programme this morning Gauke said he thought Boris Johnson was trying to orchestrate an early election. (See 8.52am.) Here are some other lines from his interview.

  • Gauke said he thought there would be a 95% chance of a no-deal Brexit if efforts to legislate to block such a scenario failed in the Commons this week. He said:

Frankly, there’s not a credible plan coming from the government to be able to leave with a deal on October 31. I would say it’s a 95% chance, to be honest, that if parliament does not act this week that we will leave without a deal on October 31.

The rule of law is hugely important to this country and I am concerned by some of the briefings that have been put out by the government suggesting that they won’t comply with the law, and I think Michael was equivocal on that question yesterday.

I think it would be very helpful if the government could clarify that they believe in the rule of law.

That’s why I’m writing to the attorney general and also the lord chancellor [Robert Buckland], who has particular responsibility for this, just to get confirmation that this government believes in the rule of law, that it will comply with the law, and if legislation is properly passed it will be complied with.

David Gauke.
David Gauke. Photograph: Alkis Konstantinidis/Reuters

Updated

Boris Johnson threatening to deselect Tory rebels to provoke early election, claims Gauke

Good morning. With MPs returning to the House of Commons tomorrow, and the Brexit confrontation between Boris Johnson’s government and parliament set to climax in MPs trying to pass legislation this week to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, last night Johnson escalated hostilities by, as Jessica Elgot puts it, threatening to “blow up his own parliamentary majority and withdraw the whip from dozens of Conservative MPs if they back plans to stop no-deal Brexit”. Here is the full story.

Some of those Tory MPs planning to vote with the opposition to rule out a no-deal Brexit on 31 October are not backing down. Philip Hammond, the chancellor, posted this on Twitter at the weekend, after Johnson’s plan was first revealed in the Sun.

David Gauke, the former justice secretary, told the Andrew Marr Show yesterday that he would continue with his rebellion and last night the former Foreign Office minister Alistair Burt backed him.

Rory Stewart, the former international development secretary, also said he was willing to lose the whip over this issue.

Yesterday Johnson also cancelled a meeting planned for today with the rebels. On the Today programme this morning Gauke said the PM was acting as if he wanted to lose the key votes this week so that he could trigger a general election. Gauke explained:

It’s a very odd way [of trying to win round rebel MPs]. Normally there would be plenty of cajoling, friends in the cabinet would be phoning up saying: ‘Come on, why won’t you support the government, give them a bit more time.’ None of that is happening. The usual operational isn’t particularly happening. It does seem to me that they’re almost goading people into voting against the government because I think their strategy, to be honest, is to lose this week and then seek a general election, having removed those of use who are not against Brexit, not against leaving the European Union, but believe we should do so with a deal.

Gauke’s analysis seems very reasonable, and it is in line with what many commentators are saying (for example, see this blogpost from the BBC’s political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, and this one from Robert Peston, her opposite number at ITV), but of course under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act calling an election is no longer straightforward. Johnson could only do it with opposition support and that would only be forthcoming if the timing of the election did not make a no-deal Brexit inevitable.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9am: Gordon Brown, the former Labour prime minister, gives a speech on a no-deal Brexit at a Hope not Hate event in Liverpool.

9.30am: Tony Blair, another former Labour prime minister, gives a speech on Brexit. As HuffPost reports, he will say Labour should avoid the “elephant trap” of a snap general election that could be used to ram through a no-deal Brexit.

11am: Jeremy Corbyn gives a speech in Salford. As Jessica Elgot reports, he will argue that this week’s parliamentary confrontation is a “battle of the many against the few who are hijacking the referendum result to shift even more power and wealth towards those at the top”.

11am: Downing Street lobby briefing.

As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although mostly I will be focusing on Brexit. I plan to publish a summary at lunchtime and another when I wrap up late afternoon.

You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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