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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Brexit: Ursula von der Leyen says EU trade deal proposals would not undermine UK sovereignty – as it happened

Norway may stop British and EU vessels fishing in its waters from 1 January, its fisheries minister said today, as talks on the management of common North Sea stocks have been held up by London’s protracted Brexit standoff with Brussels, Reuters reports.

Norway, which is not part of the EU but is part of the European single market, had previously negotiated annually with the bloc about the management of common fish stocks, access to each other’s waters and exchange of fish quotas. That has had to change following Britain’s withdrawal from the EU. Britain completes its departure from the EU’s orbit on 31 December.

In September, Norway and Britain agreed a “framework” agreement on which to base their future relations on fisheries, Reuters reports. But on one specific issue – the management of North Sea fish that swim between waters belonging to the EU, Norway and Britain
– Oslo wants a trilateral deal in place. And these negotiations have not yet started. Odd Emil Ingebrigtsen, the fisheries minister, told parliament:

If we do not get a deal by 1 January, we will not open Norway’s economic fishing zones to vessels from the EU and Britain. Neither can we expect Norwegian vessels to get access to their [the EU’s and Britain’s] zones before a deal is in place.

Updated

Boris Johnson at the National Renewable Energy Centre in Blyth, Northumberland, this morning.
Boris Johnson at the National Renewable Energy Centre in Blyth, Northumberland, this morning. Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Boris Johnson visited Blyth in Northumberland this morning - despite Northumberland being in tier 3. A reader BTL asks why he was allowed to go when the government rules say unnecessary travel into tier 3 areas should be avoided. No 10 sources say that those same rules also allow an exemption for work, and that Covid-secure guidelines were followed.

Johnson also gave an interview to the Newcastle Chronicle and managed a trip to Blyth beach - where, according to at least one account, social distancing wasn’t always being followed.

Updated

Sorry. By mistake I posted yesterday’s coronavirus figures from the UK dashboard a few minutes ago. I’ve taken them down. Today’s aren’t up yet.

Updated

Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, had a mildly snarky put-down to Boris Johnson’s suggestion that he should fly to Paris or Berlin to break the deadlock in the UK-EU trade talks (see 10.57am), Naomi O’Leary from the Irish Times reports.

The Yorkshire Post has more on Tracy Brabin being selected as Labour’s candidate for West Yorkshire mayor.

Updated

Katya Adler, the BBC’s Europe editor, has a useful Twitter thread on the current state of play in the UK-EU trade talks. It starts here.

And here is her conclusion.

Tracy Brabin selected as Labour's candidate for West Yorkshire metro mayor

Tracy Brabin, the MP and former Coronation Street star, has been selected as Labour’s candidate in the contest to be the first West Yorkshire metro mayor. The Batley and Spen MP - who was elected in a 2016 by-election following Jo Cox’s murder - will be seen as favourite to win the election next year, which covers a region that has been dominated by Labour. The mayoral post has been newly created and the first mayor will serve for three years.

In a Twitter message, Brabin thanked the rivals for the Labour nomination, Bradford council leader Susan Hinchcliffe and lawyer Hugh Goulbourne, for a “good spirited campaign”.

Greater advice and practical support is needed for multigenerational homes to reduce household transmission of Covid, experts have warned.

In a report (pdf) prepared for the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, released today but dated 24 November, experts from the sub-group on housing, household transmission and ethnicity reviewed five studies exploring how the number of people in a household, and their ages, may affect the risk of catching or dying from Covid.

Such factors, it has been suggested, could help to explain why some minority ethnic groups in the UK have been hit hard by the disease.

The result of the analysis suggests household composition is indeed a key factor in terms of risk of Covid-19 infection and mortality, even when other factors are taken into account, including deprivation.

However the team suggest it only goes part of the way towards explaining the particularly heavy toll of Covid on certain minority ethnic groups, with the influence of such factors apparently largely confined to South Asian ethnic groups.

Odds of testing positive for Covid, by household size and ethnicity
Odds of testing positive for Covid, by household size and ethnicity Photograph: Sage

Quite why household composition is a risk factor, the team say, is complex, and probably involves myriad factors linked to economic, social and health issues.

But the report makes clear that, among actions that need to be taken, more specific guidance is needed to help people mitigate household transmission. It says:

This guidance should be developed so as to be culturally specific, available in multiple languages and reflect the diversity of family types and household compositions.

Among other recommendations, the team stress there is a need to build trust between minority ethnic groups and health services, while they also note the importance of offering economic help in the form of emergency grants for the repair and maintenance of social and private rental housing in areas of high deprivation.

Updated

The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital in two regions of southern England are heading towards levels recorded at the peak of the first wave of the virus, PA Media reports.

In south-east England, 1,547 hospital patients with confirmed Covid-19 were reported on 9 December. This is the highest number for the region since the end of April. During the first wave, the number of patients in south-east England peaked at 2,073 on 7 April. At the current rate of increase, levels could be above this within a fortnight.

It is a similar picture in eastern England. Here, 1,063 patients were reported on 9 December - again, the highest since the end of April. The first-wave peak in eastern England was 1,484 patients on 12 April. On the current trend, this could be surpassed by the end of the month, PA Media reports.

Updated

Simon Coveney, the Irish foreign minister, has urged politicians involved in the UK-EU trade negotiations to “dial down the language”. In comments which seemed to be aimed at Boris Johnson, Coveney told reporters at a press conference in Berlin:

What I would say to politicians: we need to try and dial down the language in terms of the division and differences of views, and focus on the detail.

There is a bigger picture here that goes beyond trade in a world that is changing and has a lot of risk.

The idea that the UK and EU cannot put a good, constructive, positive partnership in place in the context of that new relationship ... I think that would be an enormous lost opportunity and both sides will be weaker as a result.

That is why we think the next few days are so important in finding common ground, as opposed to stubbornly focusing on differences, some of which is based on perception and some on legal text and detail.

Simon Coveney (left) at a press conference with his German counterpart Heiko Maas in Berlin today.
Simon Coveney (left) at a press conference with his German counterpart Heiko Maas in Berlin today.
 Photograph: Getty Images

Updated

The Conservative MP Imran Ahmad Khan has criticised Angela Merkel for refusing to let Boris Johnson lobby her over the UK-EU trade talks. (See 10.57am and 12.37pm.) You can tell Ahmad Khan’s a Brexiter, because he’s brought up the war ...

Back to Brexit, and this is from my colleague Daniel Boffey in Brussels.

Covid could be growing in London, east of England and south-east, says Sage

The latest R figures released by the government (see 1.55pm) reflect the large regional variations in the coronavirus crisis around England.

While overall the figures for the UK and England are now 0.9-1.0 and 0.8-1.0 respectively, with new infections somewhere between staying steady and shrinking by 2% per day, it is clear different areas are on different trajectories.

According to the latest figures, the epidemic could be growing in London, the south-east and the east of England, while it appears to be shrinking in the north-west and the north-east and Yorkshire among other areas.

“Sage is not confident that R is currently below 1 in the east of England, London, and the south-east,” the new report states.

However an important consideration is that, because these figures are based on data which is time-lagged, the R numbers released today best reflect the situation a few weeks ago.

“It is too early to see the impact of the end of the national restrictions in England, or the effect of the new tiers system implemented from 2nd December,” the Sage team report.

But more up to date data from the Office for National Statistics, which conducts swab testing on randomly selected households, suggests there is little cause for optimism that R might swing downward in these areas next week.

While the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus in the community in England overall fell between 29 November and 5 December, the survey found clear variations by region.

“Over the most recent week, the percentage of people testing positive has increased in London and there are early signs that rates may have increased in the east of England; the percentage of people testing positive has decreased in all other regions,” said the report, noting around one in 115 people in the community in England had Covid in the most recent week.

Updated

Outdoor attractions including winter wonderlands and funfairs will be forced to close in Wales as parts of the country faces what Mark Drakeford, the first minister, called “incredibly high” Covid-19 rates.

Drakeford said the NHS would not be able to cope if the number of people admitted to hospital continued to increase. He said health boards were being allowed to postpone some non-urgent treatment.

Drakeford said there had been 12,000 new Covid cases across Wales in the last seven days – the size of a town such as Carmarthen.

MPs face pay freeze after Ipsa abandons plans for £3,000 increase following protests

The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority, which was set up to replace MPs in deciding their expenses and pay following the expenses scandal, proposed in October that MPs should get a pay rise of £3,000 next year.

But the proposal was widely condemned, including by the prime minister, and today Ipsa has announced that it has shelved the plan, and that MPs’ pay will be frozen in 2021-22.

In a statement explaining the U-turn, Richard Lloyd, Ipsa’s interim chair, said the body has concluded that the Covid crisis meant it was not felt appropriate to use the normal formula for deciding what increase MPs should get (a link to public sector pay). He said:

The unprecedented impact of the Covid pandemic has had an unexpected, but different, effect on public and private sector earnings. It is clear that applying the forthcoming official statistic for public sector earnings growth would result in a salary increase for MPs that would be inconsistent with the wider economic data and would not reflect the reality that many constituents are facing this year.

The IPSA board has therefore decided that the salary for members of parliament will remain unchanged for the financial year 2021/22.

MPs are currently paid £81,932 a year.

Updated

Wales to face new Covid restrictions after Christmas if cases continue to rise, Drakeford says

Strict new restrictions will be introduced in Wales immediately after Christmas if Covid cases continue to rise, the Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, said.

An updated version of the country’s Covid plan will be published on Monday, which will include a four level warning system.

Drakeford said at the moment Wales is in level 3 – high risk – but if measures introduced in the last few weeks such as banning the sale of alcohol in pubs did not bring the coronavirus rates down, the government would consider moving to level 4 (very high risk) immediately after Christmas. The restrictions that will come with level are “equivalent to a lockdown”.

The first minister said he did not expect to have to bring in any other restrictions, such as another lockdown, before Christmas.

He also revealed the four nations had discussed revisiting the relaxation around Christmas – but had decided not to change the rules.

The government has published its latest estimates of R, the reproduction number, and the growth rate for coronavirus. Here are the numbers.

UK

R: Between 0.9 and 1. That is marginally worse than last week (when it was between 0.8 and 1), but crucially still below 1 - the rate at which the virus is expanding rather than contracting.

Growth rate: Between -2 and 0. That means new infections are shrinking at between 0% and 2% every day. This is worse than last week, when the growth rate was between -3 and -1 (ie, it was shrinking at between 1% and 3% every day.)

England

R: Between 0.8 and 1. This is no change from last week.

Growth rate: Between -2 and 0. That is marginally worse than last week, when it was between -3 and 0.

The full details are here, including a more detailed explanation of R and the growth rate.

And here are the latest regional figures.

R numbers and growth rates for English regions
R numbers and growth rates for English regions Photograph: Gov.UK

UK customs not ready for end of post-Brexit transition, say peers

Britain’s customs system is not ready for the end of the post-Brexit transition, a House of Lords committee has said. In a letter to the Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove, the Conservative Lady Verma, who chairs the EU goods sub-committee in the Lords said:

We are not confident that all the necessary technological, physical and welfare arrangements will be in place in time to avoid or mitigate significant disruption following the end of the transition period. Key customs IT systems, some of them going live at the end of this month, are still in development and testing. Similarly, construction of port and inland customs facilities is still ongoing and, in some locations, yet to begin.

The degree to which those involved in UK-EU trade are aware of what they need to do differently is a critical unknown element and the plans to protect the welfare of drivers stuck in what could be extremely long queues are insufficient. Amid this widespread uncertainty, the guidance provided by the government has been complicated and unclear, and we cannot assess how well targeted it has been.

The committee is seriously concerned that the government is so far behind in its preparations.

Her 21-page letter (pdf) sets out the committee’s concerns in detail.

Boris Johnson at the National Renewable Energy Centre in Blyth, Northumberland, this morning.
Boris Johnson at the National Renewable Energy Centre in Blyth, Northumberland, this morning. Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Covid rates decreasing in England and Northern Ireland, increasing in Wales and stable in Scotland, ONS says

The Office for National Statistics has published its latest weekly coronavirus infection survey. This is seen as one of the most reliable guides to the prevalence of coronavirus because it is is based on a random survey, not just the test results for people who decide to get a test.

The new report covers the week up to last Saturday (5 December). Here are the key figures.

England

  • One person in 115 was estimated to have the virus last week, which represents a decrease from the week before, when it was one person in 105.
  • But in London the rate is going up, the ONS says. It says:

The percentage of people testing positive has increased in London and there are early signs that rates may have increased in the east of England; the percentage of people testing positive has decreased in all other regions.

Wales

  • One person in 120 was estimated to have the virus last week, which represents an increase from the week before, when it was one person in 170.

Northern Ireland

  • One person in 235 was estimated to have the virus last week, which represents a decrease from the week before, when it was one person in 190.

Scotland

  • One person in 120 was estimated to have the virus last week. This represents an apparent increase from the week before, when it was one person in 130, although the ONS does not put it like that in its report and instead says the percentage testing positive in Scotland has remained “relatively stable”. That is probably because the ONS also the Scottish estimates are subject to “some uncertainty”.

Updated

The Downing Street lobby briefing has just finished. The prime minister’s spokesman did not deny the Reuters report saying that Boris Johnson was rebuffed when he tried to get the EU to agree to Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron getting involved in the trade talks. (See 12.37pm.)

The spokesman also rejected suggestions that Ursula von der Leyen’s comment about sovereignty this morning (see 10.26am) amounted to anything significant. He said:

I would say there isn’t anything new here, because they still say they would adapt the conditions they place on us for access, and our position on sovereignty remains unchanged.

Self-isolation or quarantine period cut from 14 days to 10 days, CMOs announce

Turning away from Brexit for a moment, the chief medical officers of the four nations of the UK have announced that the period of time for which people have to self-isolate, after being in contact with someone with coronavirus or after returning to the UK from a country not on the travel corridor list, has been cut from 14 days to 10 days. In their statement the four CMOs said:

Self-isolation is essential to reducing the spread of Covid as it breaks the chains of transmission.

After reviewing the evidence, we are now confident that we can reduce the number of days that contacts self-isolate from 14 days to 10 days. People who return from countries which are not on the travel corridor list should also self-isolate for 10 days instead of 14 days.

People who test positive should continue to self-isolate for 10 days from onset of symptoms or 10 days from point of taking a positive test if asymptomatic. We urge everyone to self-isolate when appropriate, it will save lives.

The joint statement was issued by England’s chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty, Scotland’s interim chief medical officer Dr Gregor Smith, Northern Ireland’s chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride and Wales’ chief medical officer Dr Frank Atherton.

According to PA Media, NHS test and trace will tell people to self-isolate for 10 days from Monday, but due to the time taken to develop technical changes, the NHS Covid-19 app will only do the same from Thursday.

EU 'rejects Johnson's attempt to involve Merkel and Macron in trade negotiation'

European Union leaders rejected a proposal from Boris Johnson for a Brexit call with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, a senior EU official said today, according to a report from Reuters.

Asked about Johnson’s proposal yesterday (see 10.57am) to travel to Paris and Berlin to try to get a new EU-UK trade deal across the line, the official said the EU already told Johnson on Monday to negotiate with the commission.

Johnson claims no deal now 'very, very likely'

Yesterday, according to Boris Johnson, there was a “strong possibility” of the UK and the EU failing to agree a trade deal. Just in case anyone failed to get the message, now Johnson is saying this scenario is “very, very likely”.

Speaking to reporters on a visit to Blyth in Northumberland, Johnson said:

We are always hopeful, and as you know the negotiations are continuing and we’ve got our teams still out there in Brussels.

And if there is a big offer, a big change in what they are saying, then I must say that I’ve yet to see it.

Unfortunately at the moment, as you know, there are two key things where we just can’t seem to make progress and that’s this kind of ratchet clause they’ve got in to keep the UK locked in to whatever they want to do in terms of legislation, which obviously doesn’t work.

And then there is the whole issue of fish where we’ve got to be able to take back control of our waters. So there is a way to go - we’re hopeful that progress can be made.

But I’ve got to tell that from where I stand now, here in Blyth, it is looking very, very likely that we will have to go for a solution that I think would be wonderful for the UK, and we’d be able to do exactly what we want from January 1 - it obviously would be different from what we’d set out to achieve but I have no doubt this country can get ready and, as I say, come out on World Trade terms.

As ever with Johnson, nothing is straightforward and there are conflicting theories about why is he repeatedly talking up the prospects of something that he once said would almost certainly never happen and would represent a failure of statecraft if it ever did.

One theory is that he is increasingly convinced that the talks will fail and that he is anxious to prepare public opinion for what will happen at the end of December.

But another theory is that he is deliberately being alarmist, and presenting the EU proposals in an unduly negative light, so that he can claim a triumph when a compromise deal gets agreed. (See 11.50am.)

Updated

In his column in the Times (paywall) this morning James Forsyth suggests that a solution is possible to the level playing field dispute in the UK-EU trade talks. He writes:

The same problem can be seen in the biggest sticking point in the talks, the so-called ratchet clause. This is meant to address what happens if the EU tightens its regulations in one area and the UK does not follow suit. The EU wants the right to unilaterally impose tariffs in these circumstances. There would be no obligation to show that Britain’s different standards were distorting trade. The EU would simply be able to act. But Britain would not be able to hit back. The text proposed by the EU would block us from responding to measures that they thought were unfair or disproportionate with their tariffs.

It is not sustainable to have a system where Brussels can act as judge and jury and then unilaterally disarm the UK to prevent it from taking countermeasures. There is, however, a potential solution to this problem. The EU could still have the right to respond if it increased regulations and Britain didn’t follow. It would, though, not be able to do this automatically. Rather, it would have to go to arbitration and show that the different standards were having a material effect. This would deal with the EU’s medium-term concern about Britain trying to undercut it while maintaining zero-tariff, zero-quota access to its market. It would also reassure the British side that it could not be subject to capricious actions by Brussels every time the EU introduced a relatively minor change.

Forsyth also suggests that the dispute over fisheries could be solved - essentially by paying off the EU fishing fleets likely to lose out most.

My colleague Daniel Boffey thinks Forsyth is referring to an option acceptable to the EU.

Robert Peston, ITV’s political editor, also thinks the column highlights where a compromise is possible - although he is not sure whether Boris Johnson himself can see it.

Raoul Ruparel, Europe adviser to Theresa May when she was prime minister, also thinks that Ursula von der Leyen’s comments about UK sovereignty and the so-called ratchet clause (see 10.26am and 11.14am) could be significant.

Sturgeon says chances of trade deal with EU 'now almost vanishingly small'

Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, has told CNN that she thinks the chances of a trade deal with the EU is now “almost vanishingly small”. In an interview with Christiane Amanpour, Sturgeon said:

I think the chances of a deal now are almost vanishingly small. They’re not non-existent, and I remain hopeful I guess, because no deal would be catastrophic.

But I’m starting to worry not just that no deal is now the overwhelming likelihood, but that Boris Johnson is actually now almost planning for that.

Exactly a year ago right now, the UK general election took place, and he fought that election to be elected as prime minister, basically saying that his deal with the European Union was oven ready.

He later said that no deal would be a failure of statecraft, and it was a million-to-one chance against that happening. Now, today, he’s saying it is very highly probable.

It seems to me that all of that is because Boris Johnson is failing to grasp or accept that responsible, independent countries in the modern world have to collaborate and work with others, and at times pool sovereignty for the greater good, for the greater well-being and prosperity of their populations.

Nicola Sturgeon in the Scottish parliament yesterday.
Nicola Sturgeon in the Scottish parliament yesterday. Photograph: Getty Images

Businesses across Northern Ireland reopened this morning after a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown but infection and death rates remain high, fuelling fears of a swift resurgence of the virus.

Shops, cafes, restaurants, hairdressers, cinemas and gyms can reopen and normal church services resume. Pubs that do not serve food remain shut.

The region recorded 14 coronavirus-related deaths on Thursday. There were 67 deaths in the past week, up seven on the previous week, bringing the total since the pandemic began to 1,099.

Officials also recorded 441 new cases on Thursday and said community transmission remained high, with the R value at around 1, meaning an infected person on average passes the disease to one other person. Hospitals are at 101% occupancy.

The region’s chief scientific adviser, Ian Young, said compliance with the circuit-breaker had been disappointing.

Some ministers in the Stormont executive are nervous the disease will roar back. “If there is a festive free-for-all with public health advice ignored, then it will cost lives and place unbearable pressure on our hospitals,” said Robin Swann, the health minister. “We must avoid these catastrophic consequences.”

Faisal Islam, the BBC’s economics editor, suggests there might be a hint in Ursula von der Leyen’s comments at the press conference (see 10.26am) as to where an agreement could yet be reached.

Islam went into more detail about how a ratchet clause, or evolution clause, might work in a good BBC blog earlier this week.

This is from Bloomberg’s Maria Tadeo, quoting the Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte.

Macron says EU is united behind Barnier in Brexit talks

Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has also been speaking about Brexit at his post-summit press conference. These are from the BBC’s Katya Adler.

This is essentially the Boris Johnson argument; that because the UK left the EU with a withdrawal agreement, we have not had a no-deal Brexit.

“United beyond our negotiator” means united behind Michel Barnier (a Frenchman).

Since the vote to leave in 2016 the UK has repeatedly tried to play off one EU member state against another, and Boris Johnson hinted last night that he would like to try that again when he said:

What I’ve said to our negotiators is that we’ve got to keep going, and we’ll go the extra mile - and we will. And I will go to Brussels, I will go to Paris, I will go to Berlin, I will go to wherever to try and get this home and get a deal.

Offering to go to Paris or go to Berlin implied that he thought he could get Macron or Angela Merkel to intervene to get the EU to shift its position. There is not sign yet that either of those two leaders are inviting Johnson in for talks.

Reuters has also sent this snap, which adds to Adler’s final quote.

FRANCE’S MACRON SAYS DOESN’T WANT TO HAVE HIS CAKE AND EAT IT, BUT SIMPLY TO HAVE HIS CAKE

Emmanuel Macron at his press conference.
Emmanuel Macron at his press conference. Photograph: Reuters

Updated

Micheál Martin, the Irish taoiseach (PM), agrees with Boris Johnson that there is a strong possibility of the UK and the EU failing to reach a deal, RTE’s Tony Connelly reports.

The press conference is now over.

There were several questions, but not one covered Brexit.

In her opening statement at the start of the press conference Ursula von der Leyen also confirmed that a final decision would be taken on Sunday as to whether or not a deal was possible. She said:

We will decide on Sunday whether we have the conditions for an agreement or not.

Von der Leyen says EU fishing fleets have 'legitimate expectations' about access to UK waters

This is what Ursula von der Leyen said at the press conference about the gap between the UK and the EU over fishing.

On fisheries, here also we continue to have a gap. We have not yet found the solutions to bridge our differences. We understand that the UK aspires to control its waters. The UK must, on the other hand, understand the legitimate expectations of EU fishing fleets built on decades, and sometimes centuries of access.

Ursula von der Leyen.
Ursula von der Leyen. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Updated

Von der Leyen claims EU proposals for trade deal would not undermine UK sovereignty

This is what Ursula von der Leyen said at the EU press conference (see 10.18am) about how the EU’s conditions for a free trade deal would not undermine UK sovereignty. She said:

Positions remain apart on fundamental issues. On the level playing field, we have repeatedly made clear to our UK partners that the principle of fair competition is a precondition to privileged access to the EU market. It is the largest single market in the world. And it is only fair that competitors to our own enterprises face the same conditions on our own market.

But this is not to say that we would require the UK to follow us every time we decide to raise our level of ambition, for example, in the environmental field. They would remain free - sovereign if you wish - to decide what they want to do. We would simply adapt the conditions for access to our market accordingly the decision of the United Kingdom, and this would apply vice versa.

Updated

Ursula von der Leyen covers Brexit at the end of her opening statement at the press conference.

She says she briefed EU leaders last night. The two sides remain apart, she says.

She says she has repeatedly told the UK that fair competition is a pre-condition for access to the single market.

But the UK would not have to follow the EU every time it raised it standards, for example on environmental standards. The UK would remain sovereign, she says.

And she says that, on fisheries, the UK has to accept the need to respond to the legitimate expectations of fishing communities that have been fishing in UK waters for decades.

Updated

Pound slides, stocks tumble as no-deal Brexit looms

The pound has tumbled 0.5% against the US dollar to 1.323 this morning on no-deal Brexit fears, my colleague Kalyeena Makortoff reports on our business live blog. There is more here.

No-deal Brexit is now likeliest, Ursula von der Leyen tells EU leaders

EU leaders have been told by Ursula von der Leyen that Britain exiting the transition period without a trade and security deal is now the most likely outcome, my colleague Daniel Boffey reports.

From the BBC’s Brussels correspondent Nick Beake

Von der Leyen, Merkel and Michel hold press conference

Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European commission, Charles Michel, president of the European council, and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor (Germany holds the EU presidency), are holding a press conference to mark the end of the EU summit. There is a live feed here.

Brexit was not the main focus of the summit, and it was not even on the original agenda. But I will be monitoring the press conference for anything they say about it.

Here is Von der Leyen’s summary of what the summit has achieved.

Very few Conservative MPs have been speaking out against the prospect of a no-deal Brexit in recent days. But that might be changing. this morning George Freeman, the former minister, said no deal would be “hugely damaging”.

Dowden rejects claims talk of 'Australian-style' Brexit dishonest

Oliver Dowden, the culture secretary, has responded to what Malcolm Turnbell said about Brexit (see 9.04am). Dowden was doing the morning interview round for No 10 and he covered Brexit, and other topics too. Here are the main points.

  • Dowden rejected Turnbull’s claim that an “Australian-style” Brexit (see 9.04am) would be bad for the UK. Dowden said:

A trade deal in the style of Canada would be preferable, and that’s what we’ve been pushing for. But, if it comes to it, it will choppy, but we can survive, and indeed thrive over the longer run, with a WTO-style relationship. Australia is perfectly capable of trading with the EU on that basis.

  • Dowden rejected claims that the use of the term “Australian” to describe a no-deal Brexit was “obfuscatory, to put it mildly”. When Today’s Justin Webb put this to him, Dowden replied:

Well, the use of the term Australian is to refer to the fact that another major economy - it does a large amount of trade with the European Union and does so on the basis of WTO rules.

When Webb put it to him that the government was “taking people for a ride” because Australia was so far away from the EU, and its trade with the bloc was based on goods and not services (unlike the UK’s), Dowden replied:

I don’t think it’s taking people for a ride to take a major economy that is relatively similar to the United Kingdom and compare the trading relationship.

But, Webb said, the trading relationship was not similar. Dowden replied:

There’s differences between different economies, but we are similar OECD countries and so on.

  • Dowden said the cabinet was united yesterday when it discussed Boris Johnson’s Brexit stance. He said:

The cabinet discussed this yesterday afternoon and we were all agreed it was not reasonable to expect us to be the only country in the world that doesn’t have control over its sovereign fishing waters. And it wasn’t reasonable to expect us to be the only major country in the world that has a free trade deal that requires us to match EU regulations as they increase, after we have fully left the European Union, or face consequences.

  • Dowden said the emergency funding allocated to the arts industry this year had saved 75,000 jobs across the country.
Oliver Dowden.
Oliver Dowden. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

Updated

'Australian-style' deal with EU would be bad for UK, says former Australian prime minister

Good morning. We’ve been hearing a lot more from Boris Johnson in recent days about the supposed merits of the “Australian option” for Brexit. He was at it again last night, as he warned that failing to strike a trade deal with the EU is now “a strong possibility”. Partly this reflects the Tory spin assumption that any public policy option (points-based immigration system) can be made more palatable by association with Australia, a friendly, English-speaking country with sunny weather. But, as spin, it is also doubly mendacious. The so-called Australian deal is just a euphemism for no deal. And, under this scenario, the UK would not even enjoy the benefits that Australian has in its relationship with the EU.

There is no need to take my word for it. Malcolm Turnbull, the former Australian prime minister, was on Question Time last night and this is what he said when he was asked if the UK should be happy with an Australian-style deal. He replied:

It’ll be pretty disappointing, I think you’ll find out.

We obviously have a deal with the EU on WTO terms, and there are some very large barriers to Australian trade with Europe, which we’re seeking to address as we negotiate a free trade agreement with Europe. But Australians would not regard our trade relationship with Europe as being a satisfactory one.

It’s our third biggest trading partner collectively because it’s such a big economy. But there are very big barriers to Australian exports of agricultural products in particular, there’s a lot of friction in the system in terms of services. There’s a lot to aim for, and when I was Prime Minister we started formal negotiations of a European-Australian Free Trade Agreement, but that will take some time.

So be careful what you wish for. Australia’s relationship with the EU is not one from a trade point of view that Britain, I think, would want.

This morning I will largely be focusing on Brexit again, although I will also be keeping an eye on coronavirus and other UK politics. Here is the agenda for the day.

12pm: Downing Street is expected to hold its daily lobby briefing.

12pm: The ONS publishes its weekly coronavirus infection survey.

12.15pm: Nicola Sturgeon is expected to hold her regular coronavirus briefing.

12.15pm: The Welsh government is expected to to hold its regular coronavirus briefing.

Lunchtime: The UK government publishes its latest estimate for R, the reproduction number.

And at some point today Ursula von der Leyen, the European commission president, and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, will hold a press conference at the end of the EU summit.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Malcolm Turnbull.
Malcolm Turnbull. Photograph: ABC TV

Updated

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