LEXINGTON, Ky. — The Kentucky Derby is six months away, but that first Saturday in May is ever present on the mind of just about any horse trainer with a promising 2-year-old this time of year.
On Friday, many of the early standouts from the crop of Thoroughbreds that will make up the 2021 Derby field will be at Keeneland, competing in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the marquee race on the first day of the world championship event.
Familiar names will be attached to runners in this particular field. Multiple-Derby winners Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher and Doug O'Neill will be represented in the starting gate. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen and Louisville native Dale Romans — the two trainers with the most Derby starters without a victory — will be here, too. And two of the likely favorites are conditioned by Chad Brown, winner of the last four Eclipse Awards for outstanding trainer, and Brad Cox, a Louisville native whose career has taken off in recent years.
The Juvenile, first run in 1984, has produced only six Kentucky Derby winners, and only two horses — Nyquist and Street Sense — have won both. Still, this is the biggest race of the 2-year-old season, and the winner will immediately be looked upon as a major Derby contender.
The 7-5 favorite is Jackie's Warrior, a son of Maclean's Music and undefeated in four career races, including two recent Grade 1 victories in New York — the Champagne at Belmont and the Hopeful at Saratoga. This 1 1/16-mile race will be his first start around two turns. He's trained by Asmussen, who's 0 for 8 in this race and 0 for 21 in the Kentucky Derby. He can end one of those streaks Friday.
"I think what gave us the most confidence was his Champagne," he said this week. "Two brilliant races at Saratoga and for him to carry that over to another surface — and he looked brilliant doing it. ... Physically and mentally, he is doing exceptional."
Second on the morning line at 4-1 is Essential Quality, a beautiful gray son of star sire Tapit and the winner of last month's Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity, the Keeneland Fall Meet's crown jewel for 2-year-olds.
"He has a ton of raw talent, which he's shown in both of his starts," said Cox, his trainer. "We added blinkers to him over the summer to help him focus a little bit more, and they've really helped. We have experience around two turns, and we have experience at Keeneland, which is always helpful."
Brown has the 9-2 third choice, Reinvestment Risk, who finished second to Jackie's Warrior in each of his last two starts but might be helped by the longer distance Friday. He's a son of Upstart — the third-place finisher in this race six years ago — and Brown won the Juvenile in 2017 with Good Magic, who finished second in the following year's Kentucky Derby to Justify.
Other than those three favorites, no other contender in this 14-horse field has morning-line odds shorter than 12-1. There's still plenty of promise to be found.
Classier (12-1), a son of Empire Maker, just made his debut for Baffert two weekends ago at Santa Anita, living up to his name with a gate-to-wire romp. Baffert has four wins in this race. A fifth would tie him with D. Wayne Lukas for the most ever.
Also at 12-1 is Sittin On Go, who won the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs at 24-1 odds last time out. His sire is Brody's Cause, who finished third in the Juvenile the first time the Breeders' Cup was at Keeneland in 2015, then won the Blue Grass Stakes over the same track the next spring. Brody's Cause finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby.
Romans, a fixture in Kentucky racing, trains Sittin On Go and trained Brody's Cause, as well. This will be his 10th starter — with no victories yet — in the Juvenile. Last year, Romans brought Dennis' Moment to this race, but the odds-on favorite had a severe stumble out of the gate and finished last. Romans is 0 for 11 in his hometown Kentucky Derby.
He'll also have undefeated Girl Daddy in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies on Friday. Talented 2-year-olds like that make it difficult not to think about that first weekend in May, even on the first weekend in November.
"Obviously, long term, you always have next year's Kentucky Derby and Oaks in the back of your mind," Romans said. "These horses have shown they have potential to get to that level in the future."
