LEXINGTON, Ky. — The outside post in a two-turn race is supposedly a disadvantage, but not in the case of Monomoy Girl.
Five times in her 14 prior starts, Monomoy Girl has been assigned the outer post — and she got it again Saturday, post 10, for what figures to be the final race of a storybook career. The 5-year-old Tapizar mare has never lost from "way out there," and trainer Brad Cox is hoping the pattern holds when she faces Swiss Skydiver and eight others going 1 1/8 miles in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff at Keeneland.
"It's never hurt before," Cox said. "Hopefully, we'll have the same kind of setup we usually get where she can sit a clean trip and go on with it."
In her two most noteworthy wins, the 2018 Kentucky Oaks and 2018 BC Distaff, Monomoy Girl won with forward-stalking trips from the outer post. Of course, post position has never really mattered to Monomoy Girl, nor has much anything else. Only once has she finished behind a rival — that was by a neck when she was 2. Aside from the 2018 Cotillion, from which she was disqualified from first to second for interference, she is otherwise undefeated. Monomoy Girl has won all three starts this year, the most recent being the La Troienne, a Sept. 4 race from which she also broke from the outside post.
With Florent Geroux back to ride, Monomoy Girl is the 8-5 program favorite for the Distaff, with Swiss Skydiver (post 5, Robby Albarado) the 2-1 second choice off her historic victory over male rivals five weeks ago in the Preakness. It's the first time Swiss Skydiver has faced older rivals, including Monomoy Girl, although the 3-year-old Daredevil filly has handled pretty much anything ever asked of her in 2020.
"She's been absolutely amazing this year," said trainer Ken McPeek, who has overseen a remarkable season that has yielded five graded stakes wins, including the Preakness and Alabama, from nine starts at nine different tracks. Her ferocious Preakness battle with the Kentucky Derby winner, Authentic, will resonate with racing fans for years to come.
"She's showing me that she's as strong and energetic as ever, even with all the demands of her campaign," McPeek said. "It's just the way she is. She's a tough, durable, talented filly. I really think she's got one more big one in her before we put her away for the winter."
Given all their prior accomplishments, a victory by either Swiss Skydiver or Monomoy Girl might be enough to push them to the brink of a Hall of Fame candidacy. For her part, Monomoy Girl is looking to become just the fourth horse in 37 runnings to win the Distaff for a second time, with the prior two-time winners being Bayakoa (1989-90), Royal Delta (2011-12), and Beholder (2013, 2016).
If neither favorite can come through, the Distaff upsetter could come from most anywhere, including the top three finishers last month in the Beldame at Belmont — Horologist, Point of Honor, and Dunbar Road.
Horologist (post 4, Junior Alvarado), a New Jersey-bred 4-year-old, has earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in 2 of 3 starts since being turned over to Bill Mott, including a 100 in her three-length Beldame score.
"If she can repeat the last race, we'll be in the game," Mott said. "It looks like she's become a little stouter and a little stronger."
Point of Honor (post 7, Javier Castellano) is a late-running filly whose trainer, George Weaver, surely wouldn't mind a measure of consolation after having to scratch his stable star, Vekoma, from the BC Sprint because of a minor illness.
Dunbar Road (post 3, Jose Ortiz), a winner in 6 of 10 starts for Chad Brown, was even-money when beaten nearly six lengths in the Beldame, although Ortiz said the effort wasn't as bad as it may appear.
"She didn't break that well, and it was also a heavy track," he said.
Other fringe players include Valiance, winner of the local prep, the Spinster, and a pair of California horses, Ce Ce and Ollie's Candy.
Valiance (post 8, Luis Saez), a gray 4-year-old by Tapit, brings a three-race win streak to this, ending with a 6-1 triumph in the Oct. 4 Spinster. Her trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won the Distaff twice, most recently with Stopchargingmaria in 2015, the only other year the Breeders' Cup has been run at Keeneland.
Ce Ce (post 1, John Velazquez) was among the top divisional performers earlier in the year in winning back-to-back Grade 1s, the Beholder Mile and Apple Blossom, but the 4-year-old Elusive Quality filly has not sustained that form. Trainer Michael McCarthy turned her back in her last race, the seven-furlong Derby City Distaff, but she faded late after bidding into the fray in upper stretch.
McCarthy said he "may've made a mistake" by not running Ce Ce in the 1 1/16-mile La Troienne the same weekend at Churchill Downs and that she is probably more effective around two turns. "She's doing as well as she ever has."
Ollie's Candy (post 9, Joel Rosario), trained by John Sadler, has run second or third in all five starts this year after finishing fourth in the 2019 Distaff. That consistency would seem to make the 5-year-old mare a top consideration for use in vertical plays such as the trifecta and superfecta.
Completing the Distaff field are the only other 3-year-olds in the lineup, the California-based Harvest Moon (post 2, Flavien Prat), and Lady Kate (post 6, Tyler Gaffalione), the 17-1 runner-up behind Monomoy Girl in the La Troienne.
The Distaff, known for a five-year period (2008-12) as the Ladies' Classic, is one of the "original seven" Breeders' Cup races run every year since the 1984 inaugural at Hollywood Park. The 2019 winner at Santa Anita was Blue Prize.
The Distaff goes as the 10th of 12 races and therefore is a key link in all multi-race wagers late on the card. Post time is 3:54 p.m. Eastern.
