Authentic and Tiz the Law are the top candidates to be named champion 3-year-old male. Improbable, Maximum Security, and Tom's d'Etat are the leaders for champion older dirt male. They make up half the field in the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic on Saturday at Keeneland, and a win by any of them could also bring the title of Horse of the Year. As the last race on Saturday's 12-race card, and the last of the 14 Breeders' Cup races to be run Friday and Saturday, the Classic is a compelling final act to this 37th Breeders' Cup.
"They're passing out championships. This is a key race," Bob Baffert said.
Baffert has more to gain, or lose, than any trainer in this race, as he has three starters in Authentic, Improbable, and Maximum Security. It's conceivable this race could bring two of the three Eclipse Awards. It's also conceivable they head back to the barn as dusk falls Saturday with nothing. Adding more drama is that this could be the final start for all three, as Improbable and Maximum Security are scheduled to begin stud duty next year, and Authentic could join them.
At Santa Anita last weekend, "I told everyone at the barn to say goodbye to all three of them, just in case," Baffert said.
The Big Five all are seemingly coming to the race in top order, so anticipation is high that this Classic could wind up in the pantheon currently occupied by the 1998 and 2004 editions. The supporting cast is accomplished, too, with graded stakes winners By My Standards, Global Campaign, Higher Power, and Tacitus, and the longshot Title Ready completing the field of 10.
"It's coming up a pretty tough race," said Barclay Tagg, trainer of Tiz the Law.
Post time for the Classic is 5:18 p.m. Eastern, a little more than seven hours after the opener, at 10:15 a.m. There are three races, all stakes, preceding the nine Breeders' Cup races that will be run Saturday.
Improbable heads into the Classic at the peak of his powers. He has won three straight Grade 1 races, and comes off a 4 1/2-length conquest of Maximum Security in the Awesome Again, earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 108. Two caveats — Improbable got a dream pace setup that day, and he often has a short fuse in the starting gate — but he has trained like a beast for months.
"He's filled out. He's a stronger horse," Baffert said. "He's a beautiful mover, the way he goes over the ground."
Maximum Security, winner of the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic in August, got engulfed in a pace duel in the Awesome Again, run over a Santa Anita track that on that day seemed deep and tiring. It's what Maximum Security has done since that intrigues. Often one needing to be pushed along to do his work, he has been far more forward in his breezes. He looks well capable of a bounce-back effort.
Having six weeks between the Awesome Again and Classic gives them their "best chance to bring it in the Breeders' Cup," Baffert said.
Authentic won the Kentucky Derby and then was second in the Preakness, showing he's perfectly capable of handling more than nine furlongs. The big question Saturday is whether he can handle older runners in his first meeting against them.
Baffert's three runners landed the outside posts, with Improbable in 8, Authentic 9, and Maximum Security 10. Assuming a clean break, look for Authentic to have the most speed under John Velazquez, Maximum Security to be right outside him under Luis Saez, and Improbable to stalk with Irad Ortiz Jr.
Tiz the Law, winner of the Belmont and Travers and second in the Derby, might have the most to accomplish the opening quarter-mile, as he is stuck in post 2 and has shown a preference for racing outside rivals. If he hasn't outgrown that with maturity and racing experience, he and Manny Franco could be in for a rough go. He certainly can't be faulted for his race record — he's undefeated outside Churchill Downs, kryptonite to him — and his recent works have been stellar, but, like Authentic, he's facing elders for the first time.
Tom's d'Etat, also headed to stud following this race, beat Improbable in the Oaklawn Mile and then was third against him in the Whitney after taking a terrible stumble leaving the gate.
"That was a tough pill to swallow," his trainer, Al Stall Jr., said of the Whitney.
In between those two, Tom's d'Etat won the Stephen Foster with a career-best Beyer Figure of 109.
Stall elected to come into this race fresh, trying to give Tom's d'Etat his best chance to go out a winner. Tom's d'Etat is 5 for 6 with Joel Rosario, who is back aboard. Their only loss was the Whitney.
By My Standards might be the most underappreciated horse in the country. He's 4 for 6 this year, his only losses second-place finishes to Tom's d'Etat in the Stephen Foster and Improbable in the Whitney, in which he also got away poorly, though not as severely as Tom's d'Etat. He's always been an impressive-training horse, and it's been more of the same from him leading up to this.
Global Campaign was a front-running winner of the Woodward. He has some overlapping ownership with Improbable, so expect him to be the more aggressive of the two in the early going.
Higher Power, third in this race last year, never has returned to the form displayed in the 2019 Pacific Classic, in which he got a career-best Beyer of 107. He's winless in six starts since.
Tacitus, second in the Woodward, has been favored in six of his last nine starts, with this year's Suburban his lone victory in that stretch. At the least, his remaining loyal fans who haven't jumped ship will finally get a price on him.
Title Ready, the race's longest shot, represents trainer Dallas Stewart, never shy about taking shots in big races, often with some success, though this seems like very deep water for a horse who has never won a stakes race and has a career-best Beyer of 95.
