Race Day No. 2 at 2020′s $31-million Breeders’ Cup will test the athletes, their jockeys, trainers and owners — and not least, the players — mightily. We could argue that the runners, their jocks and the players will have the roughest go, but any way it’s cut, the parameters of the test are, in fact, delightful: The load of athletic talent is the heaviest in recent memory, to the point that the afternoon’s main feature, the $6-million Classic, has six contenders within whispering distance of each other in the track’s morning line, although the track money, aka, the live odds, has busily spread them a bit apart over the course of the afternoon. We’ll update the live odds every 20 minutes as the clock ticks toward post time.
The — for his competitors — dreaded imprimatur of Hall of Fame trainer and Breeders’ winner Bob Baffert looms large over this year’s Classic. Baffert’s three stellar entries, all of them among the top five favorites, are the (at the moment, slight) top favorite Improbable, his closest rival Maximum Security, and one of their closer rivals, 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic. Naturally, also, all three have posted exceedingly well in the three outside positions of the 10-horse field, as if God — or, depending upon whom you ask, Satan — himself ordained it for the ease and comfort of yet another Baffert Breeders’ win.
As if that weren’t quite enough to spice up the race, Belmont winner Tiz The Law, trained by super-crusty Barclay Tagg, ups the ante considerably close to the rail, breaking from the not-exactly-ideal two-hole. Despite the luxurious distance at Keeneland from the gate to the first turn, every athlete in that race will have enough to do just to lay down a run, especially Tiz The Law, who, at just three, will be in his first race with the big boys. But before we bring in our trusted trackside Kentuckian, the renowned Bluegrass Wise Man ™, to get into who will best whom in this rich contest, herewith, the Keeneland odds, which we’ll update all day as the money starts to talk.
(Post Position, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Live Odds, Morning Line)
1. Tacitus, Bill Mott, Jose Ortiz, 19-1, (20-1)
2. Tiz the Law, Barclay Tagg, Manny Franco, 5-2, (3-1)
3. By My Standards, Bret Calhoun, Gabriel Saez, 24-1, (10-1)
4. Tom’s d’Etat, Al Stall Jr., Joel Rosario, 7-2, (6-1)
5. Title Ready, Dallas Stewart, Corey Lanerie, 58-1, (30-1)
6. Higher Power, John Sadler, Flavien Prat, 37-1 (20-1)
7. Global Campaign, Stanley Hough, Javier Castellano, 24-1, (20-1)
8. Improbable, Bob Baffert, Irad Ortiz Jr., 7-2, (5-2)
9. Authentic, Bob Baffert, John Velazquez, 5-1, (6-1)
10. Maximum Security, Bob Baffert, Luis Saez, 5-1, (7-2)
(Source: Twinspires.com, Date: 11/7/2020, Time: 5:10 p.m. ET)
Our favorite Kentucky horseman, the Bluegrass Wise Man ™, has been at Keeneland this week, watching the works at first light and digging into the trackside chatter. Full disclosure: Though an owner and a proficient player, the Wise Man ™ has no horses running in this year’s Classic.
Might have asked you this before, but can it be that Baffert is actually God?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: According to the Big Book, we’re all supposed to have a little whiff of the divine in us, right. But if he is, Bob’s got no problem with that. Despite the fact that his three horses have posted well, Bob’s problem will be the danger that all his favorites face, namely, that of the horses cancelling each other, or wearing each other out, in what looks like is gonna be some bad traffic, or at least multiple duels, up the backstretch.
How about we drill down on that by looking at the second tier in the top five.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: We’ll see what happens as the money wakes up and starts walking around today, but for the moment that means everybody behind Improbable and Maximum Security, so Tiz the Law, Authenticate, Tom’s d’Etat. Of those three, I’m going to be playing Tiz The Law and as we said on Monday, I’ve just not been able to get behind Authenticate. Tom’s d’Etat is seven years old, right? Now, he wasn’t so good when he was young, but has been coming on, and has looked fine this week out here. We know he’s got the distance in him, but we don’t know whether his recent wins add up to an ability to take on an Improbable. Not completely sold on him, is I guess what I have to say now. Still liking what I’ll call the sixth-favorite in By My Standards.
Tacitus?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Tacitus is funny, and by that I do not mean much that’s good. Friend of mine out at the track the other morning watched him work, shook his head and said: “That horse has broken many a player in his day.” Which meant, he shows up, he’s in some good races, might even get some low odds, but he has a way of disappointing in the actual running. He’s talented, and he’s won just enough to sorta stay in the mix. I think that’s why Keeneland’s oddmakers have him kinda outside the second tier in their morning line at 20-1. There’s just this sorta cloud of doubt around him. In other words, high enough odds to scare some folks off. Anything can happen, but I’d be super careful playing that.
Speaking of anything happening, what’s this thing actually gonna look like.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: If there’s pace, it might actually work out by givin’ some of ‘em a shot at settling in where they might like to be, and that would bring what we might say could be a more considered race. I mean the faves, who like to lay just off the pace as we know. Question is, where’s the pace? Title Ready? Dunno. But let’s assume, if he’s the pace, that Title Ready freaks out or can’t get up there for some reason, and there’s no pace to help ‘em save gas. Then the backstretch will be a lot uglier, horses kinda always trying to get up, nobody really able to lay in and get comfortable, and all kinds of gas getting burned up hot. Depending on how tight and boxy that gets, it’ll mean that some people will have to go wide, wasting more gas. You know what that means down the stretch. Whoever has the strength left to change leads and get his ass over the wire will take it. What I’m saying is, if you expect some boxing-in on the backstretch, which is looking likely, then you’re gonna hafta box your bets.
So…you see Improbable surviving that in better shape than Maximum Security?
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Hard call, boy. I mean, he beat him last time out, and the style of that win was fairly decisive, with Maximum Security just not being able to keep it and Improbable winning going away. This is another field and another day, so I won’t say Maximum Security can’t do it. By the same token, it’s also another field for Improbable with a lotta talent in it, and he can be beaten. By anybody. That’s what it means to be the slight favorite, right? As we’ve talked about, we know he can get the distance and his question’s gonna be almost a jockey’s question. Can Improbable be threaded through whatever the backstretch presents him and have enough left over to take it. He’s got Irad (Ortiz) up, and Irad is white-hot right now. I’d put money on that.
Speaking of money….
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Been saying all along that I’m gonna leave out Authentic. Can be wrong, but I don’t think so. Gut feeling. And, been saying all along that I like By My Standards, who’s in the second tier, as we know. So if you take the two better Bob horses, Maximum Security and Improbable, and box ‘em in trifectas with Tiz The Law or By My Standards, it’ll be a fun day. Speaking of the Ortiz brothers, I might just bet some Ortizes, Irad and José over the day’s card. On the nose or in an exacta. It’s smarter to bet horses and kinda handicap the jockeys in as a factor, like Irad on Improbable in the Classic — Irad’s not the only reason to bet Improbable. But it looks like it good sport to bet some Ortizes on some of their other horses today.
Move on down the card to Swiss Skydiver, what say.
Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Not unlike the Classic, this year’s Distaff has shaped up to be a real slug-out. Swiss Skydiver was gonna enter the Classic against all the boys, but her connections went for the Distaff, where she’s gonna have a better shot hitting the board. Monomoy Girl is dominant, and fearsome, but I hafta say, the grit Swiss Skydiver showed in the Preakness fighting everybody off and getting to the wire was a delight. Bet ‘em both on the nose, box that exacta, or just spray some cash at ‘em any way you like, it’ll be a fun race.
