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Joe Mewis

Breaking down who Leeds United fans should root for in the Championship play-off final

For Leeds United fans it's pick your poison time on Monday, when Aston Villa and Derby County lock horns for the right to play in next season's Premier League.

While we'll forgive Leeds United supporters for wanting to put their head in the sand and ignore the Wembley clash, that will be easier said than done, considering just how close Marcelo Bielsa's men were from appearing in world football's richest game ™.

But instead, it's an East vs West Midlands showdown, with Dean Smith's Villa side looking to go one better than last year, when they lost the play-off final to Fulham and the Rams looking to end an 11-year spell outside the top flight.

So where should Leeds fans loyalties lie in the Championship play-off final at Wembley on Monday afternoon?

Heart over head

As luck would have it, Leeds have very recent grudges to bear with both sides.

Leeds hosted Villa at Elland Road a month ago in a clash that brought about the most controversial goal of the season and a fallout in which Leeds fans were again asking questions about the EFL's logic.

Following the bust-up that came after Mateusz Klich's controversial goal and Villa's walk-in equaliser, few Leeds fans were arguing with Patrick Bamford's ban, but the fact that Conor Hourihane was not punished for striking Klich was the latest in a long line of perceived injustices from the EFL.

But when it comes to bad blood between the two sides, Derby have Villa easily beaten. We'd like to think everyone had moved on past Spygate, following Leeds' hefty fine that was paid out of Bielsa's pocket, but Derby obviously hadn't, with their players and coaching staff quick to bring it back once they had beaten the Whites at Elland Road in the semi-final.

Who do Leeds want to face next season?

Logic would dictate that the play-off final losers will be a promotion contender next season, with Villa proving this by bouncing back from defeat 12 months ago to make their second straight trip to Wembley.

But which of these two sides would be better placed for a promotion tilt next year?

Villa's form under Dean Smith, particularly since the turn of the year has been promotion-worthy and they would likely be installed as one of the favourites next year, should they fail at Wembley. Having only secured a play-off spot on the final day of the season, logic would dictate that the Rams would not be as well-placed as the Villans would be in the Championship next year.

Both sides have been somewhat reliant on loan players, with Tammy Abrahams key for Villa's promotion aspirations, but Derby's reliance on young trio of Harry Wilson, Mason Mount and Fikayo Tomori could cost them next year if Liverpool and Chelsea are not willing to loan these youngsters out again.

The parachute payment factor

This is the third and final season that Aston Villa will have received parachute payments following their 2016 relegation from the Premier League. The Villans will have received an estimated £15milllion from the top flight this season and should they not go up, the impact will be felt in the club's accounts.

The knock-on effect here will be that they club may have to cut their cloth accordingly this summer in order to meet FFP requirements and should Villa suffer defeat at Wembley, the future of Jack Grealish will no doubt quickly be the front and centre narrative around Villa Park.

Would Villa be able to continue the momentum they built under Dean Smith into next season if they have to make significant player sales this summer?

On a similar tip, with Derby having dodged the FFP bullet via the creative accounting that saw them sell their stadium to one of Mel Morris' sister companies, the financial pressure has eased on them slightly.

Over to you...

So what do you think? Let us know who you want to win at Wembley...

For all your latest Leeds United news, opinion, analysis and transfer gossip, click here

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