BRASILIA, Brazil �� Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remains such a towering figure in Brazilian politics that even his absence casts a shadow.
When President Michel Temer last week inaugurated a long-awaited irrigation project in Monteiro, in Brazil's arid northeast, much of the praise from locals and visiting dignitaries went to Lula for launching the much-needed infrastructure over a decade ago.
The 71-year old former metal worker, trade union leader and two-time president retains the devotion of many Brazilians, particularly in the northeast. Despite a corruption scandal, much of which originated on his watch, and the catastrophic unraveling of the economy under his chosen successor, Dilma Rousseff, Lula is considering a comeback. Facing five separate criminal charges against him _ three linked to Operation Carwash _ the left-wing leader is still the most popular in opinion polls only 18 months before the next presidential election.
Brazil's political establishment is not counting him out quite yet. Aloysio Nunes, the foreign minister and leading member of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party _ the Workers' Party's traditional opponent, said the former president clearly had a chance of returning to power.
"Lula is an idol," he said. "He's strong, popular."
Tens of millions of Brazilians rose out of poverty on Lula's watch and U.S. President Barack Obama once called him the most popular politician on Earth. Not since the nationalist leader Getulio Vargas has a politician dominated Brazilian public life like Lula, who ended his eight years in office with record-high approval ratings.
For Flavio Lucio Rodrigues Vieira, a sociologist and historian from the Federal University of Paraiba, the former -president's continued appeal to many in the northeast rests on his government's investment in the region's infrastructure and its policies of social inclusion.
"They had the greatest impact in the northeast due to the fact the region has lower average incomes and salaries," he said. As a son of the northeast himself, Lula's rise from poverty to Brazil's highest office remains a source of inspiration for many in the area, he said.
The former president, who declined to comment for this story, has repeatedly stated his willingness to run again "if needed."
The recent death of his wife, Marisa Leticia, sparked an outpouring of sympathy from his supporters. One of the speakers at her funeral described the former first lady, who also faced corruption charges, as a "victim of persecution."
More than 50 million Brazilians live in the impoverished northeast, and many receive Bolsa Familia, the benefits program that expanded dramatically under the rule of Lula's Workers' Party.
But outside the region, Lula and his party are far less popular. In local elections in October the Workers' Party lost control of Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest city, and 60 percent of the municipalities it won in the previous elections in 2012.
Analysts from Eurasia Group political consulting firm argue in a research note published on March 9 that even if he does run for office, Lula has little chance of winning, based on his high rejection numbers outside the northeast. A recent poll conducted by Ipsos Public affairs found that 66 percent of respondents either totally or partially disapprove of Lula as a candidate.
"Lula leads in voter intentions in great measure because of name recognition and a relatively loyal base of support that totals 25 to 30 percent of the electorate," they wrote.
The former president also faces serious legal challenges to running again. If he loses just one of the cases against him he could be barred under a law that prohibits anyone convicted in an appeals court from running for office, according to Eurasia.
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