The scandal-plagued presidency of Michel Temer will come under scrutiny by Brazil’s top electoral court in the first of several encounters with the judiciary that could result in his removal from office.
Less than a year after he plotted the ousting of his former running mate, Dilma Rousseff, the centre-right leader faces charges that he abused his power by using illegal campaign donations to win the vice-presidency in the 2014 election.
The opening of hearings by the supreme electoral tribunal on Tuesday comes amid the intensifying Car Wash graft purge that has forced several ministerial resignations, resulted in numerous jailings and seen the prosecutor general formally accuse the president of corruption and obstruction of justice.
On the morning of the electoral tribunal trial, police arrested the former tourism minister Henrique Eduardo Alves, who is charged with bribery relating to the construction of a 2014 World Cup stadium in Natal.
At the weekend, a close Temer aide, Rodrigo Rocha Loures, was also taken into custody after being stripped of his congressional seat and caught with a suitcase containing 500,000 reais of alleged bribe money.
The prosecutor general, Rodrigo Janot, has launched an investigation of Temer, following the release of secretly recorded conversations that suggested the president discussed hush money payments to the jailed former house speaker Eduardo Cunha.
Amid rumours of more damning audio tapes, plea bargains and a possible supreme court trial of the president, some commentators have urged the electoral tribunal to nullify the 2014 elections, which could – after an appeal process – strip Temer of his post and force a new run.
However, this is thought unlikely, because the tribunal is presided over by the supreme court justice Gilmar Mendes, who is close to Temer – and is himself accused to conspiring to pervert the course of the Car Wash investigation.
Most analysts believe Temer can count on the support of a majority of the seven-judge tribunal. A verdict could come as early as Thursday or be postponed for several weeks.
Even if found guilty by the tribunal, Temer could remain in office while he appeals. Any verdict against him in the supreme court would also need to be endorsed by a two-thirds majority of Congress, where the ruling coalition currently have a comfortable majority.
This could change if a key ally – the conservative Brazilian Social Democratic party (PSDB) – abandons the government. But many in the business and financial sector want Temer to stay in power so he can push through unpopular pension reforms.
However, many voters want Temer to quit. His approval ratings have slipped into single digits, there have been violent clashes between protesters and police on the streets, and polls suggest the vast majority of the public would like fresh elections.
Antônio Augusto de Queiroz, political analyst at Intersyndical Parliamentary Assistance Department, said the tribunal was likely to postpone a decision, though Temer would remain under pressure.
“The vulnerability of the government is at very high levels. He could be condemned by the electoral court, he could lose PSDB (a coalition party) support for his government, and there is still the Rocha Louro plea bargain.” Among the possible scenarios he painted was Temer standing down and blaming his resignation on alleged campaign violations by his former running mate Rousseff.
Even if the tribunal judges in favour of Temer, the president will still struggle to complete his mandate until the end of 2018, according to Sylvio Costa of the parliamentary watchdog group Congresso em Foco.
“Temer doesn’t govern anymore. All his time is dedicated to defending himself,” said Costa. “Everything is leaning against him remaining in his position. We will continue in crisis for a while longer.”
Additional reporting by Shanna Hanbury
