Mike Vrabel’s 2021 Coach of the Year campaign with the Tennessee Titans bucked a trend that dominated previous seasons when it came to who won the award. In six straight years prior to Vrabel’s win, the coach of the year came from a team that improved at least four games over the previous season.
More often than not, those coaches took losing teams and coached them to double-digit wins. In 2020, Kevin Stefanski won the award after the Browns went from 6-10 to 11-5. John Harbaugh’s Ravens in 2019 were the only winning team in this stretch, improving from 10-6 to a league-best 14-2. Matt Nagy’s Bears in 2018 went from 5-11 to 12-4. Sean McVay’s Rams in 2017: 4-12 to 11-5. Jason Garrett’s Cowboys in 2016: 4-12 to 13-3. Ron Rivera’s Panthers in 2015: 7-8-1 to 15-1. You get the drift.
So what allowed Vrabel to grab the award after losing as many games in 2021 (12-5) as he did in 2020 (11-5)? My best guess is he secured the AFC’s top seed despite injuries to his best players throughout the year. So while his win may seem an aberration, it does inform one part of how to bet on who will win in 2022: if you aren’t picking a coach from a losing team the previous season, you’d better pick a coach from a team that can ascend to top seed.
NFL Coach of the Year Odds
So who are the coaches who best fit those criteria? The best candidates from teams that were good but have the potential to be great are Josh McDaniels +1500 (Raiders), Kyle Shanahan +1500 (49ers), Nick Sirianni +1500 (Eagles), Sean McDermott +2000 (Bills) and Zach Taylor +3000 (Bengals).
When it comes to coaches from teams that can make the playoffs after missing them last postseason, the best candidates are Brandon Staley +1300 (Chargers), Mike McDaniel +1500 (Dolphins), Nathaniel Hackett +1500 (Broncos), Harbaugh +2000, Frank Reich +2000 (Colts) and Dennis Allen +3000 (Saints).
Because the coach of the year has more often come from teams that were not previously playoff contenders, I favor the coaches in the second list. And though Staley is the betting favorite after a monster offseason for the Chargers, I actually favor his AFC West rival on the Broncos, Hackett.
Aside from Harbaugh, who’s Ravens simply dealt with a slew of injuries last season, Hackett is the only coach on the list whose team had a losing season. That gives him the potential to lead the largest turnaround of these teams. Not to mention, he fits another recent trend in recipients of the award: he’s a first-year head coach. Three of the last five winners — Stefanski, Nagy and McVay — were also in their first years on the job.
