Peeking back at your preseason predictions can be like looking at pictures of yourself from junior high: absolutely horrifying. But as professional journalists we’re up for the challenge of peeling the onion and learning from past mistakes. Strap in: we struck gold in a couple of categories … but others weren’t so pretty (you can read them here before we go).
Best team that won’t make the playoffs
What we said before the season: Two of us predicted the Broncos would crash (“it will likely take the Broncos some time to figure out the Russell Wilson-Nathaniel Hackett dynamic”) although not as spectacularly as they did, and we overestimated how strong the AFC West would be overall. We also said the Pats would flop: “Jones hitting his head on his low ceiling after a solid rookie campaign, alongside a coaching staff dealing with multiple departures will combine to make this a transitional year for the Pats.” The less said about the possibility of the Chiefs missing the postseason the better.
What actually happened: The Broncos were even worse than expected and the Patriots only avoided a last-place finish in the AFC East because of the New York Jets’ spectacular late season collapse. You may have heard that the Chiefs ended up doing pretty well ...
MVP
What we said before the season: Among our candidates was Tom Brady who we said, “is fresh as a daisy after that 11-day holiday, and the reviews from training camp have been raving about the 45-year-old throwing it better than ever.” One of us selected Justin Herbert based on an improved offensive line, “his protection got even better when the Chargers took polished guard Zion Johnson at 17th overall.” We also threw Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in the mix. Patrick Mahomes? Jalen Hurts? Nope.
What actually happened: Brady finally looked closer to his age. Herbert spent a good chunk of the season on the ground after losing left tackle Rashawn Slater in Week 3. Allen had 14 interceptions, often in key moments. And Jackson was in the mix for a while until he was injured. At least Jackson’s replacement, Tyler Huntley, earned a spot in the Pro Bowl. The actual MVP, Mahomes, won almost unanimously.
Rookie of the year
What we said before the season: We combined offensive and defensive players for this category. One of us picked Falcons WR Drake London based on the logic that the Atlanta Falcons would have an interesting offense: “They will be certifiably frisky … They try things!” We also had one vote for Pittsburgh Steelers QB Kenny Pickett. But – ding ding ding – two of us predicted that the eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year, Sauce Gardner, would excel.
What actually happened: London was solid, with four touchdowns and 866 yards. Pickett emerged as the Steelers’ starting quarterback, though it’s a bit early to call him the next, well, anyone. That is not the case with Gardner, who looked like the next Darrelle Revis. He shut down the likes of Ja’Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs, and is arguably already the best corner in the league. With Gardner and Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson at receiver, the Jets future is bright … if they ever figure out what to do under center.
AFC East champions
What we said before the season: Like at least 99.9% (and possibly 100%) of NFL pundits, we were all in on the Buffalo Bills. We called them, “the best all-around team in the NFL” and were certain “they have the division locked down.” Though we did question “how far Miami can push the Bills” under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel.
What actually happened: The Bills eventually won the AFC East by a healthy margin, but the gap is closing. The Jets stunned the Bills in November and were only half a game back before their meltdown. The Dolphins finished above .500 for the third straight season and almost toppled Buffalo in the Wild Card round. The Pats finished with a respectable 8-9 record, but their days of dominating the division are over for the foreseeable future.
AFC North Champions
What we said before the season: Three of us picked the Baltimore Ravens to take the division, in large part because three of us predicted a Cincinnati Bengals’ Super Bowl hangover. “Cincinnati are liable to fall back to Earth after an extraordinary 2021. Defenses will gameplan to stop Ja’Marr Chase, depriving them of their biggest receiving threat.” One of us was less enamored of the Ravens (“I don’t have faith they can stay healthy”) and instead, correctly, selected the Bengals.
What actually happened: As one of us predicted, the Ravens struggled with injury as Jackson missed the end of the season. The Bengals took the North, thanks in large part to an eight-game win streak to close the season. Chase missed five games and still topped 1,000 yards receiving and increased his reception total from 2021.
AFC South champions
What we said before the season: We unanimously thought the Indianapolis Colts were poised to take the AFC South after improving their quarterback situation – “Matt Ryan will help to stabilize a Colts side that has enjoyed highs and lows at quarterback ever since Andrew Luck walked out the door” – and we also believed the rest of the division would stink.
What actually happened: Doug Pederson happened. And Trevor Lawrence showed tremendous growth as the Jacksonville Jaguars were crowned division champs. Meanwhile, the Colts were a hot mess. Ryan was ineffective. Frank Reich was fired in early November and replaced with a TV analyst with no NFL coaching experience. Indy finished 4-12.
AFC West champions
What we said before the season: We all believed this would be one of the NFL’s toughest divisions and were split on predicting the winner. Two of us picked the Los Angeles Chargers, one of us picked the Kansas City Chiefs, and one of us just couldn’t resist the Denver Broncos and their new savior, Russell Wilson.
What actually happened: The Chiefs were the class of the division with a 14-3 record. The Chargers did pose an admirable challenge, finishing 10-7. But the true runners-up were the Seattle Seahawks after Wilson had a terrible year, marked by a lack of accuracy. The Broncos finished 5-12, and gifted Seattle the No 5 overall pick in the 2023 draft as part of the blockbuster trade that sent Wilson to Denver.
NFC East champions
What we said before the season: We all thought the Philadelphia Eagles were ready to fly thanks to their complete roster. While we didn’t gush over Hurts, we did acknowledge that “he could have a significant bump in his second year while working with Nick Sirianni.” We also had no love for the rest of the division: “Teams led by Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz are going nowhere and Dallas just can’t be trusted.”
What actually happened: The Eagles dominated and ended up with the best record in the NFC, and Hurts was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The division formerly known as NFC Least flipped the script. No team finished below .500. Brian Daboll’s 9-7-1 New York Giants were the surprise of the division.
NFC North champions
What we said before the season: We all considered the Green Bay Packers a foregone conclusion to win the division, thanks to Aaron Rodgers: “Back-to-back MVP awards say it all, he still owns all of you.” None of us mentioned the Minnesota Vikings.
What actually happened: Without a top-tier wideout to replace Davante Adams, Rodgers struggled for most of the season. The Pack missed the playoffs at 8-9 and only outperformed the Chicago Bears. Rodgers is now heading on a vacation in a cave to mull his future. The Detroit Lions finished second as Jared Goff had a renaissance under Dan Campbell. But it was the Vikings who ran away with the North, thanks to Justin Jefferson’s dominance. Going 11-0 in one-score games also helped.
NFC South champions
What we said before the season: All of us picked the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but not with a lot of gusto. We just didn’t believe in the rest of the division: “There are too many holes among the rest of the South for anyone to get close.” Though we did warn to “never ever bet against the team Brady is helming.”
What actually happened: We were largely right. The 8-9 Bucs won the division by default. Most of thought Brady would have a little more in the tank than he showed. While the NFC South was not exactly a masterclass in football domination, at least it was close. The Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, and New Orleans Saints all finished at 7-10.
NFC West champions
What we said before the season: Three of us picked the defending Super Bowl champions, the Los Angeles Rams. After all they had “as much high-end talent as they did a year ago.” While Trey Lance and the San Francisco 49ers were mentioned as a possible challenger, only one of us picked them as division champions.
What actually happened: The Rams struggled in almost every area and started the season 3-8. Matthew Stafford’s season ended early with injury. With their menacing defense and collection of offensive stars, the 49ers won the division and challenged Philly for the NFC’s top seed. As everyone predicted, Jimmy Garoppolo was not traded and instead replaced an injured Lance before being replaced for the rest of the season by Mr Irrelevant. Brock Purdy would join Geno Smith as one of the division’s top two quarterbacks, completing one of the season’s best storylines.
AFC Championship Game
Who we picked before the season: Three of us predicted the Bills to win, and one of us thought the Ravens would prevail over Buffalo. We all thought the Chiefs and Bengals would be watching from home.
What actually happened: The Bengals looked at our predictions and laughed in our faces. They took out the Ravens and the Bills before landing back in the AFC Championship. The Chiefs were challenged by the Jags in the divisional round game and bested the Bengals in another classic to take the AFC title.
NFC Championship Game
Who we picked before the season: One of us at least predicted one of the participants, thinking the 49ers would top the Rams. The rest of us, well, let’s just say we had a little too much faith in Brady, Rodgers, and McVay.
What actually happened: The 49ers and Eagles faced off in Philadelphia. The final score was 31-7 but the this one was effectively over in the first quarter when Purdy became a one-armed quarterback.
Super Bowl winners
Who we picked before the season: Well, this is embarrassing. Two of us picked the Bills. One voted for the Ravens, and one went for the Packers.
What actually happened: None of us will doubt the Chiefs’ Mahomes-Andy Reid axis any time soon. Speaking of the future, the idea of Mahomes collecting more Super Bowl rings than Brady now doesn’t seem implausible.
