Several bookmakers have reported big losses as a result of George Galloway's shock victory in the Bradford West byelection. Ladbrokes said it was down more than £100,000, its worst byelection ever, after misreading a series of heavy bets placed at branches in the city and elsewhere on Tuesday and Wednesday.
It had thought the bets were part of a trend seen in the past where punters linked to a particular campaign try to influence bookmakers to tighten their prices, giving the impression there is real movement, which can help the campaign.
But the Bradford betting was soundly based. Punters linked to the Galloway campaign would have been getting positive messages to the extent that they were prepared to risk large sums.
Galloway's opening price at the start of the month was 33/1. As the gamble built up steam, Ladbrokes cut the odds to 20/1, 10/1 and eventually 5/1. For a while on Wednesday the firm suspended betting completely because it was not taking enough bets on other contenders to help balance its books.
With the benefit of hindsight, Ladbrokes and others should have lengthened the odds against Labour further to attract more bets. By not doing so, they took a gamble which they lost.
• Mike Smithson is editor of politicalbetting.com
