There is normally a prince over the water at Conservative conference, the alternative attraction members flock to see at fringes. For many years it was Boris Johnson, though Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liz Truss have contested for the crown.
But now, as one cabinet minister put it, it’s all about “King Boris”. Even among his MPs who remain deeply sceptical of his motives and his competence, there is an acknowledgment that his status in the party is untouchable and so far unimpeded by a petrol crisis, soaring energy bills, empty food shelves, a welfare cut and impending tax rises.
Across party fringes and at drinks receptions, there are displays of loyalty which can verge on the comic. When Truss was asked at a conference fringe event who her favourite foreign secretary from history was, she didn’t hesitate. “Boris Johnson,” she said.
At a drinks reception on Tuesday evening, when the guests on stage had a gentle discussion about which rising star might have their eye on Number 10, the work and pensions secretary Thérèse Coffey heckled from the back of the room: “There’s no vacancy.”
One backbench MP from the One Nation wing of the party claimed loyalty was the only means of advancement under Johnson – saying only those who “bow to the King” are promoted.
Johnson has delighted in the display and joked to journalists on Monday evening that the lack of dissent must have made the conference hard to cover, offering to confect a row to spice up coverage.
Despite the gloomy predictions about how chaos on the forecourt would overshadow his big conference moment, Johnson has bulldozed through the questions with a disciplined message on higher wages – no matter how many holes you can pick in the argument. “It’s all going horribly right,” he said of his conference week.
There is no better illustration of his total dominance than the room he has given to his cabinet ministers, a small white box seating just 600 where the hum of Tory activists buying scented candles from the exhibition hall sometimes drowns out their speeches. His own will be on a grand separate stage, built secretly in a separate arena space.
But even the most senior cabinet minister has had very little to say that would have suffered from being drowned out. The word that multiple cabinet ministers have been using to describe the conference – with a nod and a wink – is “low key”.
Even the cabinet minister whose star is most in the ascendancy, Rishi Sunak, gave a conference speech that could have been delivered at a fringe event, with a modest announcement about a boost to jobs support.
The most eye-catching announcement, Priti Patel’s inquiry into the murder of Sarah Everard and the culture of misogyny in the police, was more a consequence of an appalling circumstance than a calculated policy direction.
“You would normally expect the chancellor to have a big rabbit to pull out of a hat, but the prime minister’s emphasis has been on what we are delivering now,” one cabinet minister shrugged, saying Downing Street had told them there was “no pressure to make any announcements”.
A reshuffle has also helped avoid ministers being able to say anything too interesting. Those who have been in their new reshuffled briefs for a matter of weeks, such as Nadhim Zahawi, Oliver Dowden or Michael Gove, used their mere minutes on stage to tell their life story, fuel the culture wars or make gags at Labour’s expense.
There are practical reasons, too. One senior minister said they thought it was “good to be focusing on delivery rather than new policy … we have enough on our plates – like where is the petrol?”
Johnson’s speech on Wednesday will have precious little to add – apart from some rallying optimism and underlining his message on higher wages. It will coincide with the cut to universal credit – which campaigners and economists have warned will be devastating to the poorest – but which Johnson has repeatedly shrugged off in interviews with more soundbites on higher pay.
His speech is programmed to last a brisk 40 minutes, half the time of the Labour leader Keir Starmer’s speech in Brighton a week earlier.
Above all there is a supreme sense of confidence in the party, among members and MPs. “It almost feels like a 2019 victory party which we never really got to have,” one minister said.
That confidence has translated into a broad understanding that Johnson will not call an election until 2024. “We are definitely going long,” one cabinet minister said. “The message you will hear over and over again over the next chapter is that we are fundamentally remaking the economy, we are changing Britain to a high pay, high skill country which has lagged behind for too long, and that is a generational project. That isn’t compatible with a snap election – my guess is no earlier than 2024.”
There are still a few Cassandras. One cabinet minister said they were more unnerved than some colleagues about the damage the autumn could inflict on the party’s reputation for competence.
“My view is that the public is still willing to blame the media or bad luck for what they are experiencing,” said the minister. “But they want to see the government act, they want to see us get a grip. That’s why it’s necessary to land this message on pay. That’s a message I fundamentally believe in, Boris believes in. But we’ll see what the polls say in four or five weeks – I think that’s the better time to make a judgment. I’m quite concerned about complacency.”
