It is good to be a marginal electorate. Whichever party wins government next Saturday, the outer-suburban electorate of Cranbourne, held on a margin of just 2.34% and populated by an influx of swinging voters, is set to receive at least $1bn in extra funding.
It’s a significant spend for an electorate that Labor should be confident of holding, according to political analyst Dr Nick Economou, a senior lecturer from Monash University.
Newspoll in October showed Labor widening its two-party-preferred lead to 54–46.
“There’s nothing to suggest that voters in an electorate like that, which is a classic outer-suburban swinging seat, the sort of seat that delivers executive government, there’s no evidence to suggest that that’s going to swing [to the opposition],” Economu told Guardian Australia.
“On the other hand, let’s face it: if the Liberals want to win government, they’re going to have to win a seat like Cranbourne.”
Local candidates can influence the vote, he says, but usually only if they are extraordinarily good or extraordinarily bad.
The local campaigns have not given up, however.
While queued at the roadworks at the intersection of Thompson Road and Western Port Highway, which was funded by Labor as part of a $207m upgrade to Thompsons Road, voters can read the election poster of Liberal candidate Ann-Marie Hermans promising to build either an under- or overpass at that same intersection at a cost yet to be specified.
The roadworks have been taken as a sign of good faith by Cranbourne East resident Jag Singh, who said he hasn’t had time to follow the election closely.
“At the moment I am pretty happy with what they have done with the Thompson Road works and trying to make the road wider,” he said. “But it’s traffic, that’s the big issue for me … They [Labor] are targeting that so I am happy.
“I don’t know what the other party is planning to do, but for that reason I am just going to go with this one ... with the Labor party.”
The Liberal party has also promised similar upgrades to the intersection of Hall Road and Western Port Highway, and Thompsons and Evans Road.
And it has pledged to duplicate Berwick-Cranbourne Road, for $130m.
Labor has a similar roundup: duplicating Narre-Warren Road, Hall Road, and updating the Evans Road and Hall Road intersection.
Clarinda Park resident Emmanuel Harawa has been tracking the election promises, but is less confident they will be followed through.
“There have been promises, but we have to see results,” he said.
The proposed upgrades to the train line are also extensive. Labor has pledged $750m to duplicate the Cranbourne train line from Dandenong to Cranbourne, and $7m for planning works on extending the line a further 5km. It says it will also add two stations to the growing suburb of Clyde.
The Liberal party has promised $487m to extend the train line to Clyde, with no funding for a duplication.
Both parties have pledged funds to build a new police station at Clyde North — $34m from Labor and $15m from the Liberal party — with an additional $20m apiece for park, school and sporting facilities upgrades.
Labor has also committed to upgrading a Cranbourne health clinic to a community hospital.
The Liberal party is outspending Labor on advertising in the electorate, if not on campaign promises. A billboard promising that the opposition leader, Matthew Guy, will be “tough on gangs” overlooks Western Port Highway as you drive past Lyndhurst, and Hermans’ posters mark every roundabout and major intersection. Local advertisements for Labor candidate Pauline Richards are noticeably thin on the ground.
Hermans was even looped into a visit by the former prime minister John Howard, still his party’s most popular weapon on the campaign trail.
Howard led a phalanx of state Liberals, including Guy and Hermans, around Fountain Gate shopping centre, the mall popularised by the Australian television sensation Kath and Kim.
“How’s business?” Howard asked one shopkeeper, according to a report in local paper the Cranbourne Star News. “It will be even better when Matthew Guy becomes the premier.”
His appearance is a sign of a campaign under pressure, Economou said.
“Trundling out federal leaders is a sign that the state leader is not cutting through,” he said.
