The party led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov won Bulgaria’s third elections this year, according to an exit poll, but rivals bent on blocking his return to power secured a potential path to end the poorest European Union nation’s political crisis.
The power vacuum has exacerbated the struggles of a country with one of the Europe’s lowest COVID-19 vaccination rates and one of the world’s highest pandemic death tolls on a per capita basis. It has also delayed the approval of badly needed EU recovery aid, which has kept the nation of 7 million outside of its passport-free Schengen zone due in part to endemic corruption.
Borissov’s Gerb party, which has run the Black Sea state for most of the last decade, won by a slim margin with 24.8% of the vote, according to an exit poll published by Alpha Research for public BNT TV after ballot stations closed.
We’re Continuing the Change, known as PP, was second with 24.1%, which gives them a chance to hold coalition talks. The Socialists were in third with 13.7%. Six parties will enter parliament in all if official results match the exit polls, which don’t count ballots cast abroad.
Because his party won the most votes, Borissov is likely to have the first try to form a new Cabinet. But as in the previous two votes in April and July, he’s likely to be shunned by the other parties. They say he has allowed graft and organized crime to flourish even as Bulgarians’ living standards have failed to close the distance with their richer EU peers.
The upstart We’re Continuing the Change party, known as PP, may have a clearer route to forging a coalition. Comprised by members of the previous interim government, it campaigned on an anti-corruption platform.
It may seek to forge a majority with either the Socialists or potentially the Democratic Bulgaria party and other anti-corruption forces. The problem is that Democratic Bulgaria has refused to work with the Socialists, so the path to coalition negotiations may be fraught with disagreement and may further extend the political deadlock.
Three unsuccessful attempts to form a Cabinet will trigger a new snap election next year. Paralysis could delay the approval of the 2022 budget, further hinder talks to secure EU money and hamper efforts for Bulgaria to get a grip on its deepening struggle with COVID-19.
It also obscures Bulgaria’s push to win membership in the euro area. While Borissov has tried to pave the way for swapping levs for euros for years, there may be little political will among the euro-sharing nations to accept new members.
In a separate presidential ballot, incumbent President Rumen Radev won the first round of voting with 49.1%, according to the exit poll. Radev, a bitter rival to Borissov, will probably face Gerb candidate Anastas Gerdzhikov in a Nov. 28 runoff.
