Boris Johnson would lose his own seat at a snap general election, according to a poll revealed today.
The Prime Minister would be ousted from his Uxbridge & South Ruislip constituency in an unprecedented dumping of a sitting PM, says the Focaldata study for the Sunday Times.
The Conservative leader has a relatively fragile 7,210 majority in the North West London seat, and is vulnerable as the capital’s voters increasingly switch to Labour.
The survey, using the controversial MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) method with constituency-by-constituency research, gave Labour an eight-point advantage on 40% and the Tories on 32%.
If replicated at the next election, Labour would win 338 seats and the Conservatives 237 - giving Keir Starmer an outright - albeit narrow - majority of 26.
That would enable Labour to govern without support from other parties such as the Scottish nationalists and the Lib Dems.
The study suggests Labour could quickly rebuild its Red Wall - dozens of constituencies across the North and Midlands which switched to the Tories at the 2019 election, fuelled by a desire to “Get Brexit Done” and deny Mr Starmer’s predecessor Jeremy Corbyn the keys to No10.
Focaldata chief executive Justin Ibbett said: " Boris Johnson has overseen a seismic drop in Conservative Party support across all sections of society.
“It compares to 1997, when Blair took power.”
However, he said the reason “that Labour performs so well in this MRP poll is more due to Conservative collapse than a resurgent Labour”.
A separate Opinium/Observer survey yesterday(SUN) found Labour retains a seven-point lead over the Tories, with Labour on 39% and the Conservatives on 32%.
It means Labour enters 2022 buoyed by a series of poll leads as Mr Johnson’s authority ebbs.
Just two years after leading the Conservatives to an 80-seat majority at the 2019 general election, Mr Johnson’s premiership has been battered by two shock by-election defeats, revelations over lockdown-busting parties in No10, sleaze allegations and battles with his backbenchers over coronavirus restrictions.
