British leader is acting as an emissary for the West after Gulf leaders shunned entreaties from President Biden to discuss energy policy amid Ukraine war
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to deliver a plea from the West: pump more oil.
The British leader is acting as an emissary as the de facto leaders of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia shun entreaties from President Biden to discuss energy policy. Oil prices rose sharply following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on concerns about supply disruptions. The West needs oil production from the Middle East to increase as it looks to wean European nations off Russian oil and gas, while avoiding soaring energy bills for voters at home.
The visit comes as the International Energy Agency warned of a global oil supply shock due to large-scale disruptions to Russian oil supplies and following similar warnings from OPEC.
Mr. Johnson met with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan early Wednesday and will meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman later in the day, according to the British government. He aims to use the daylong trip to discuss “efforts to improve energy security and reduce volatility in energy and food prices," it said.
“The Prime Minister set out his deep concerns about the chaos unleashed by Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, and stressed the importance of working together to improve stability in the global energy market," a Downing Street spokesperson said after Mr. Johnson’s meeting with the Abu Dhabi crown prince.
The two leaders discussed opportunities to increase collaboration between the U.K. and the U.A.E. on various issues, including defense and energy security, according to the spokesperson.
For Mr. Johnson, it is a tough sell, British officials concede.
The hurdles are numerous. Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. don’t want to jeopardize a deal between the Riyadh-led oil cartel, OPEC, and Russia—an alliance called OPEC+—officials in both countries said. That pact, which allows for collective production increases of 400,000 barrels a day each month until levels reach pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels, did little to stem the rise in oil prices and the Saudis have pumped less than their share, according to the International Energy Agency.
Meanwhile, growing disenchantment in the Middle East with the U.S. over issues including defense in the region mean the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia are less inclined to meet the West’s demands. Before Mr. Johnson’s arrival in Riyadh, a U.S. delegation led by acting assistant secretary of state Yael Lempert visited to discuss energy issues, among other topics, with an eye to steadying the relationship, according to the Saudi foreign ministry and people familiar with the talks.
“I am not confident Johnson will be able to deliver everything quickly," said Sanam Vakil, an expert on the Middle East at the Chatham House think tank. However, she said, the visits may reassure the leaders of Britain’s long standing commitment to their security and lay the groundwork of a longer term shift in policy.
Earlier this month, the White House unsuccessfully tried to arrange calls between President Biden and the de facto Emirati and Saudi leaders, The Wall Street Journal reported. The Saudis also declined an appeal to pump more oil from French President Emmanuel Macron who spoke with Prince Mohammed in late February, according to people familiar with the conversation.
That has left a diplomatic opening that Mr. Johnson is hoping to fill. The British prime minister and the Saudi crown prince, known as MBS, have a good personal relationship, forged several years ago when Mr. Johnson was foreign secretary and Prince Mohammed was rising to power, said John Jenkins, a former British ambassador to Saudi Arabia. The British government also sent Queen Elizabeth’s grandson Prince William to promote ties with the U.A.E. in February. Britain, after leaving the European Union, is looking to deepen economic links with both the countries.
“We’ve also made less of a fuss about Saudi actions in Yemen—and continue to support their operations," said Mr. Jenkins. “That all helps. But how deep the relationship really is, is unclear. Boris Johnson can’t make the U.S. love MBS—or give him sovereign immunity."
Mr. Johnson isn’t expected to meet the 86-year-old Saudi King Salman, who left a hospital Wednesday after undergoing unspecified medical tests and having the battery in his pacemaker replaced, according to state media.
The Saudis have signaled that their relationship with Washington has deteriorated under the Biden administration, and they want more support for their intervention in Yemen’s civil war and help with their own civilian nuclear program as Iran’s moves ahead, Saudi officials have said. They also want legal immunity for Prince Mohammed in the U.S. where he faces multiple lawsuits, including over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018.
President Biden has removed some military capabilities and forces from the Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, and he froze the sale of offensive weapons to the kingdom as it faced increased drone and missile attacks from Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The U.K. has kept the weapons flowing. Between 2010 and 2019, Saudi Arabia was the largest importer of arms from the U.K., according to government data.
Still the visit is fraught with political risk for Mr. Johnson. Last week Saudi Arabia conducted the largest mass execution in one day in its history, putting to death 81 people in what Human Rights Watch called “a brutal show of its autocratic rule" and questioned the fairness of their trials.
Lawmakers in Britain’s Parliament repeatedly criticized the killings. “We were shocked by the executions at the weekend," said Amanda Milling, U.K. Minister for Asia and the Middle East. “We do raise our concerns; the ambassador has raised concerns with the Saudi national security adviser and the Vice Foreign Minister."
Saudi Arabia alone can potentially push oil prices lower because it doesn’t pump at its full capacity of about 12 million barrels a day. It is currently producing about 10 million barrels a day and could reach full capacity in three months. Any signal that it was willing to do so would likely cause oil prices to fall, oil analysts say.
Earlier this month the U.A.E., which has about 1 million barrels a day of so-called spare capacity, said it would push the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to pump more oil, as crude prices rocketed to near record highs during Russia’s war on Ukraine. But other OPEC officials said they were taken aback by the sudden shift in the U.A.E.’s message and that they weren’t consulted. Despite the comments, the country has yet to take any substantial action or encourage OPEC to change its course.
“It was a verbal intervention that worked for a few days but neither they nor the Saudis want to rock the boat," said a senior OPEC+ official.
For now, OPEC is standing pat on production plans, according to several of its members. While prices have surged on supply concerns, there hasn’t been any significant Russian disruption so far, they say. Prices dipped below $100 a barrel on Tuesday as investors bet demand would fall as China reintroduced a Covid-19 lockdown.
“Any move that is politically driven rather than being based on market fundamentals would backfire, and would only push prices lower for a short period," said a senior Persian Gulf OPEC official.
Other delegates said no action was on the table at this stage as OPEC+ still foresees an oil surplus this year.
