Boris Johnson has indicated Covid rules could return this year after his top advisor warned a “very difficult” winter looms for the NHS.
A dark cloud loomed tonight as the Prime Minister announced an end to almost all Covid laws in England from July 19.
Nightclubs, stadiums and theatres will be allowed at full capacity, punters can queue at bars and mandatory face masks by law will be axed.
Yet Mr Johnson admitted daily cases could hit 50,000 a day by then - and the link with deaths, while weakened, is not entirely severed.
And he made a point of saying he was deliberately going with a big bang approach now - to avoid having to reopen things during the more difficult winter months.
That appears to question Mr Johnson’s previous claims that the end of lockdown would be “cautious and irreversible”.
He refused tonight to promise it will still be irreversible - instead saying the government will “do everything possible to avoid reimposing restrictions with all the costs that they bring".
Asked directly if Covid restrictions could go into reverse, he replied: “Obviously, if we do find another variant that doesn’t respond to the vaccines, if heaven forbid some really awful bug should appear, then clearly we will have to take whatever steps we need to do to protect the public.
“But on balance, given the massive success of the vaccine rollout, given the fact this is a good moment to do it given the coming summer holidays and the natural firebreak we have there, and given the difficulty of then imagining us opening up in the context of the colder Autumn and winter months, I think this is a balanced and cautious approach.”
Despite lifting almost all Covid laws - even mandatory masks in hospitals - the Prime Minister added: “We must remain cautious.
“I don’t want people to feel this is the moment to get demob happy, this is the end of Covid - it is very far from the end of dealing with this virus.”
Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance said cases are doubling every nine days, while hospitalisations are "rising quite steeply in some places and we would expect that to continue". "It's a weakened link, not a completely broken link," he said.
He added: “Deaths are increasing. There’s an increase in deaths just as there’s been an increase in hospitalisation and we would expect that to continue also.”
England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said the epidemic is "clearly significant and rising”.
He told the No10 press conference: “The winter is inevitably going to be tricky.
“And clearly this winter the NHS is likely to have both Covid and some resurgence of other respiratory viruses that were suppressed by the degree of lockdown last time.
“So I think we should be realistic - this coming winter may be very difficult for the NHS.”
Prof Whitty signalled a herd immunity approach - saying modelling indicated that Covid will reach a peak with restrictions lifted, then fall back before hospitalisations and deaths can overwhelm the NHS.
But he added there were many uncertainties.
And he said despite mask laws being reduced to guidance, he will continue to wear masks in enclosed crowded spaces and if someone else wants him to.
Boris Johnson described summer as a "firebreak" allowing a reopening now, rather than in winter which would be a more "difficult time" or delaying until next year.
He said: "If we don't go ahead now when we we've clearly done so much with the vaccination programme to break the link between infection and death.
"If we don't go ahead now when the summer firebreak is coming up, the school holidays, all the advantages that that should give us in fighting the virus, then the question is, 'when would we go ahead?'.
“Particularly given the likelihood the virus will have an extra advantage in the colder months, in the autumn, and in the winter.
"So we run the risk of either opening up at a very difficult time when the virus has an edge, has an advantage in the colder months, or again putting everything off to next year so I do think it's going to be a very balanced decision next week."
But Labour leader Keir Starmer said relaxing almost all restrictions at the same time was “reckless.”
“The announcement today is all about headlines, it’s not about public health,” he said. “The Prime Minister said he would be driven by data, not by the dates. He doesn’t have the data yet, he won’t have the data until later this week, so he’s not in a position to take a decision until next Monday - so you have to wonder what today’s announcement is all about.
“It’s about party management, rather than the public interest.”
He added: “To throw off all protections at the same time when infections are going up is reckless.
“We need a balanced approach. We need to keep key protections in place, including masks, including ventilation - and crucially, something we’ve been asking for throughout the pandemic, proper payments to those who need to self-isolate.”
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