Boris Johnson has said the UK is 'past the peak' of the coronavirus outbreak - and that he will reveal a comprehensive plan on coming out of the lockdown next week.
At the Prime Minister's first appearance at the daily coronavirus briefing for more than a month he declared that the UK was officially past the peak of Covid-19 infections.
"At no stage has our NHS been overwhelmed, no patient went without a ventilator, no patient was deprived of intensive care, we have five of the seven projected Nightingale wards," he said.
"It is thanks to that massive collective effort to shield the NHS that we avoided an uncontrollable and catastrophic epidemic where the reasonable worst-case scenario was 500,000 deaths.
"I can confirm today that for the first time we are past the peak of this disease.
"We are past the peak and on the downward slope."
There have been 26,711 deaths in all settings in the UK during the pandemic, Mr Johnson announced, an increase of 674 since yesterday.
He said that UK had avoided the 'reasonable worst case scenario' of 500,000 deaths.
He added: "Families every day are continuing to lose loved ones before their time, we grieve for them and with them, but as we grieve, we are strengthened in our resolve to defeat this virus to get this whole country back to health, back on its feet."
Mr Johnson acknowledged the "frustrations" in expanding the number of coronavirus tests and the difficulties getting sufficient personal protective equipment (PPE).
"We're determined urgently and in particular to overcome those challenges that have in the last few weeks been so knotty and so infuriating," the PM said.
"I'm not going to minimise the logistical problems we face in getting the right protective gear to the right people at the right time, both in the NHS and in care homes.
"Or the frustrations that we've experienced in expanding the numbers of tests.
"But what I can tell you is that everyone responsible for tackling these problems, whether in Government or the NHS or Public Health England or in local authorities, we're throwing everything at it, heart and soul, night and day, to get it right - and we will get it right and we're making huge progress.
"And I will not underrate the work and achievement of those who are dealing with global shortages in a global pandemic - they are rising to a challenge we've never seen in our lifetimes."
Despite acknowledging we are past the peak, Prof Chris Whitty warned: “We are nowhere near the end of this epidemic.”
He said “we must learn lessons at the right point”, but urged people not to draw conclusions yet about the UK’s death rate compared to the rest of Europe.
“There is a very long way to run for every country in the world on this,” he said.
“Let’s not go charging in to who’s won and who’s lost at this point. Let’s take it quite carefully.”
The PM said the ‘R’ number will be the crucial factor in deciding how far to ease the lockdown.
This number is the number of people each Covid-19 carrier infects around them.
It has different rates in different cities or working environments - but the government is focusing on the national rate.
At the start of the pandemic it was said to be between 2 and 3.
Chief Scientific Advisor Patrick Vallance revealed the national R number is now between 0.6 and 0.9 - while in London it is 0.5 to 0.7.
Both of those estimates would be enough to stop horrifying exponential growth of the virus.
But Prof Vallance and the Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, both warned the R number must be kept below 1 to avoid overwhelming the NHS.
If the R is currently 0.9 that would leave very little room for changing the lockdown - as every relaxation will push it up again.
Last month the PM was forced to self-isolate for more than a week after contracting Covid-19 himself.
The 55-year-old's condition worsened and he was taken to hospital.
He ended up spending two nights in intensive care at St Thomas' hospital in central London.
This week has been his first back at work.
On Wednesday morning he and fiancee celebrated the birth of a baby boy and he subsequently missed Prime Minister's Questions at midday with Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab deputising.
Mr Johnson also returned to host Cabinet this morning as he summoned ministers, many virtually, to discuss the latest scientific advice on the lockdown.
Earlier today, in a significant move, one of his top ministers backed Scotland First Minister Nicola Sturgeon - who has warned she can't see any restrictions being eased on May 7.
Boris Johnson’s official spokesman did not deny the possibility of lockdown continuing until June.
Asked if it would, he replied: "I think we will have to wait for the review to take place and I don’t think it’s wise for me to pre-empt that.
"What you’ve obviously heard from [Chief Medical Officer] Chris Whitty is that this is a disease that’s going to be around for a significant amount of time.
"He said we have to be realistic, we’re going to have to do a lot of things for a long period of time.”
