The new UK coronavirus variant may have an “increased risk” of mortality compared to the original virus.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there is some evidence that the variant - which first emerged in Kent - is leading to more deaths.
“It's largely the impact of this new variant which means the NHS is under such pressure,” he said during a Downing Street press conference this evening (January 22).
The number of hospital patients is currently 78 per cent higher than during the first peak in April.
Chief Scientific Officer Sir Patrick Vallance said there’s no real evidence of an increase in mortality for those in hospital with Covid-19.
However there is evidence that those who have tested positive have an “increased risk” compared to those who have the old variant.
Sir Patrick stressed that that evidence is not yet conclusive and all evidence appears to show that vaccines remain effective against both the old variant and new variant.
But he warned that the new Brazilian and South African variants may be “less susceptible” to vaccines - though more research is needed into this concern too.
Sir Patrick said the UK variant is now common here with a “significant number of cases”.
“We have confidence this is spreading more easily than the first variant,” he told the press conference.
“We think it transmits between 30 and 70 percent more easily than the old variant. We don’t yet understand why that is the case.”
He said the new variant can affect anyone at any age and hospital data suggests outcomes for those with the original variant and old virus look the same.
“There’s no real evidence of an increase in mortality for those in hospital,” he said.
“However when data are looked at in terms of those who have tested positive - so anyone that has tested positive - there is evidence that there is an increased risk for those who have the new variant compared to the old virus.
“That evidence is not yet strong, it’s a series of various different bits of information that come together to support that.”
He said at Downing Street: “(For the original version of the virus) If you took a man in their 60s, the average risk is that for a thousand people who got infected, roughly 10 would be expected to unfortunately die … with the new variant, for a thousand people infected, roughly 13 or 14 people might be expected to die.
“That’s the sort of change for that sort of age group.”
The chief scientific officer stressed that there is a lot of uncertainty about this data but said it was “of concern that this has an increase in mortality as well as an increase in transmissibility, as it appears of today.”
He said that there is increasing evidence that the UK variant will be susceptible to vaccines and he is “increasingly confident” about that.
People infected previously who have antibodies appear to be equally protected against the original virus and the new variant, he added.
