If the country voted to leave Europe, many believe that David Cameron’s position would be untenable. Boris Johnson could seize his job in the aftermath of the vote – meaning he would have to appoint a cabinet to run the country. The fun is working out who might be in it.
Boris Johnson– prime minister
This part is easy: the former London mayor is the main contender to succeed Cameron, as de facto leader of the out campaign. To win the role, he would have to be one of two or three candidates shortlisted by MPs and then come top of a ballot of party members. He has never held ministerial office but he has run the UK’s biggest city, a star quality that makes him popular with some members of the public and an ability to shrug off negative headlines. His critics would be concerned that he does not have the stature, seriousness, grasp of detail or experience for the role of prime minister.
Michael Gove – deputy prime minister, leading EU negotiations
Gove has been a strategic brains behind the David Cameron/George Osborne era but it is entirely possible that he could switch allegiances and prop up a Johnson premiership. His decision to back Brexit caused a rift with Cameron in particular and he may relish the opportunity to take a more central role in Downing Street as Johnson’s right-hand man. He is very popular with the grassroots of the party but consistently denies he wants to run for the top job himself, saying he is unsuited to the role. Despite a zeal for making big ideological reforms in education and more recently in justice, it is difficult to seem him away from the heart of the project to take Britain out of the EU. He is more of a detail man than Johnson, so leading the negotiations with Brussels would be a good fit.
Andrea Leadsom – chancellor
Leadsom is thought to have ambitions to lead the party herself but, if beaten by Johnson to the top job, she would doubtless want the keys to the Treasury. A former City executive, she has worked in the department as a minister under Osborne before being sent to energy.
Liam Fox – home secretary
Fox has been looking for an entry back into government ever since he stepped down from his job as defence secretary early in the coalition over a controversy about the unofficial advisory role played by one of his friends, Adam Werritty. As one of the few Brexiters with senior cabinet experience, he would be looking for a big office of state.
Theresa May – foreign secretary
If the Brexit bunch wanted to keep on a few token remainers, they could do worse than retaining May. She has never been close to either Cameron or Osborne and has not campaigned as ferociously as them for staying in the EU. Perhaps with her own leadership ambitions in mind, she gave a speech halfway through the campaign saying she advocated withdrawing from the European convention on human rights, suggesting she is open to radical reshaping of Britain’s relationship with European institutions. If she were not picked as the next leader of the party, she could realistically only go from home to foreign secretary. This would give her a leading role in negotiations with Brussels, which would suit her reputation for departmental competence.
Dominic Raab – justice secretary
Raab is yet another of those from the leave camp who has been tipped as an outside choice for party leader. He is considered by fellow Brexit campaigners to have performed well in the media and has a reputation for defence of civil liberties.
Iain Duncan Smith – work and pensions secretary
The former cabinet minister could return to his old role driving through his universal credit project to shake up welfare if Osborne and Cameron were gone from Downing Street. Having resigned with unfinished business, he may have ambitions to carry on his mission.
Nadhim Zahawi – business secretary
A successful businessman who cofounded YouGov, he has been passed over by Cameron. He is a friend of Johnson who helped organise a trip to Kurdistan that helped burnish the London mayor’s leadership credentials. It is hard to see how Sajid Javid could stay on in the role given his closeness to Osborne and decision to back staying in the EU against his Brussels-bashing instincts.
Graham Brady – education secretary
The chair of the influential 1922 committee of backbenchers, Brady has extensive connections across the parliamentary party. He has an interest in education as a leading opponent of Nicky Morgan’s forced academisation of schools. She is one of the ministers considered by the Brexiters to have gone far too over the top in her arguments for staying in the EU.
Priti Patel – communities secretary
The employment minister would certainly get a cabinet job after showing herself willing to make forceful attacks on Downing Street and the remainers during the campaign. She has accused those wanting to leave the EU of “playing the race card” after official in campaign literature boasted of keeping out non-EU families from the UK. The first Tory female Asian-origin cabinet minister in charge of a department, she could be a good fit as communities and local government secretary.
Owen Paterson – energy secretary
A former environment secretary, Paterson is a passionate opponent of windfarms and is a climate change sceptic. Getting his hands on the energy department would be a dream job for him. Johnson has repeatedly flirted with climate change scepticism despite backing measures to tackle global warming in his role as London mayor.
Theresa Villiers – health secretary
Villiers has experience as Northern Ireland secretary and transport secretary, so could be a safe pair of hands for a department that is still reeling from Jeremy Hunt’s handling of the junior doctors’ strike.
Mike Penning – transport secretary
The former transport minister is one of the few junior ministers to side with the Brexit camp. Patrick McLoughlin is passionately pro-European so unlikely to keep his job.
George Eustice – environment secretary
A former press secretary to Cameron, Eustice is an ex-Ukip candidate so it is hardly surprising he threw his lot in with the leave camp. He is currently a farming minister and has a Cornwall constituency so would be a natural choice for the environment brief.
Justine Greening – development secretary
Greening is with the remain camp but has not been prominent during the campaign and was once thought to be a eurosceptic. She is thought to be close to team Johnson.
Jesse Norman – culture secretary
The chair of the Commons culture select committee, Norman is rumoured to be one of those who Johnson has approached about a job in the event of Brexit - although this speculation has been strongly denied. A friend and Etonian contemporary of Johnson, his advance has been frustrated under Cameron because he led the charge against Lords reform.
Penny Mordaunt – defence secretary
Mordaunt has been a stalwart on the airwaves for the leave campaign, is currently a defence minister and has been in the naval reserves.
Mark Field – chief secretary to the Treasury
The Cities of London and Westminster MP is a remainer but an Oxford contemporary of Johnson and another who is said to have been approached about a ministerial job. Like Johnson, he is a staunch defender of the City and financial services sector.
John Whittingdale – chief whip
Whittingdale is well-liked on both sides of the debate within the Tories and a parliamentary veteran. He has mostly stayed above the daily fray of claim and counterclaim about immigration and economics.
Chris Grayling – leader of the House of Commons
Grayling is also said to have leadership ambitions and could be looking for a more senior role in a Johnson-led government but it is crowded at the top.
Steve Baker – chairman of the party
This will be an important role as Conservatives try to reunify and carve out a new image as less of an establishment party in the event of a Brexit vote. Baker led the Conservatives for Britain group of leavers and would be a confident choice as party figurehead.
David Mundell – Scottish secretary
As the only Scottish Tory MP, he is basically unsackable despite being a remainer. The department might also benefit from continuity as a dangerous time for the union, with the SNP likely to demand a second independence referendum.
David Jones – Welsh secretary
The rightwinger was replaced as Welsh secretary by Cameron but could potentially make a comeback.
Ben Wallace – Northern Ireland secretary
The Northern Ireland minister is remainer but a key ally of Johnson.
Lord Farage of Westerham?
There would be nothing to stop Nigel Farage entering the government with a peerage in recognition of his role for having forced the EU referendum in the first place. The Ukip leader has repeatedly said he would be willing to work with Johnson but it is less certain that the new prime minister would want to be associated with such a divisive figure.
Ones to watch in the junior ranks
James Cleverly, Zac Goldsmith, Anne Marie Trevelyan, Nusrat Ghani, Jake Berry
Key officials
Sir Edward Lister, former chief of staff, Will Walden, communications director, Dominic Cummings, former adviser to Gove and Vote leave strategist, Matthew Elliott, former Taxpayers’ Alliance chief and Vote Leave chief executive.
