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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

Cameron mocks Boris Johnson's second referendum strategy - Politics live

Cameron takes a swipe at Johnson in the House of Commons.

Afternoon summary

Can I ask the prime minister to explain to the House and to the country in exactly what way this deal returns sovereignty over any field of law-making to these Houses of Parliament?

Cameron replied:

This deal brings back some welfare powers, it brings back some immigration powers, it brings back some bailout powers, but more than that, because it carves us forever out of ever closer union, it means that the ratchet of the European court taking power away from this country cannot happen in future.

Later Vote Leave said Cameron was wrong to say powers would be returned to the UK under the agreement. It said:

No powers will be brought back by this agreement. The decision states that ‘The competences conferred by the Member States on the Union can be modified, whether to increase or reduce them, only through a revision of the Treaties with the agreement of all Member States.’ Since there will be no Treaty, no powers will be returned to the UK. Before the agreement, the EU had 28 legislative competences over the UK. Today, it still possesses 28.

  • Priti Patel, the employment minister and one of the “gang of six” ministers who attend cabinet and who are voting to leave the EU, has put out a statement effectively criticising what Cameron said in the Commons. (See 5.27pm.) The remarkable move illustrates how divided the Tories are over the EU. The BBC says more than 100 Tory MPs will vote to leave the EU, and in the Commons at times Cameron got a noticeably better reception from Labour MPs than from his own side. This is from the Sun’s political editor, Tom Newton Dunn.

But the Tory MPs who did criticise Cameron did not get personal, and by and large the most blatant display of animosity (concealed under humour) came when Cameron was criticising Johnson. It was also noticeable that at least two Tories generally seen as strongly Eurosceptic, Sir Roger Gale and David Morris, announced they would be supporting Britain remaining in the EU.

  • Cameron has defended using a Downing Street civil servant to lobby businesses to support the campaign for Britain to stay in the EU. MPs heard a letter signed by organisations supporting Remain is due to appear in a national newspaper on Tuesday, with No 10’s business relations adviser Chris Hopkins co-ordinating the project. As the Press Association reports, political blog Guido Fawkes reported it had obtained a draft of the letter sent to FTSE 100 bosses by Hopkins. Questioned about the letter, Cameron said the government has a “full-throated view” to support Britain staying within a reformed EU - and it can use the civil service to put this before voters.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

According to a fascinating blog by Channel 4 News’s Gary Gibbon, Liz Hurley was also due at the Boris Johnson dinner party where Johnson discussed Brexit with Michael Gove. Here’s an extract.

I understand that even when he left Boris Johnson’s house on Tuesday evening, Michael Gove told friends he wasn’t convinced that the Mayor of London had decided to back Leave. One man who might know the state of Boris Johnson’s mind is the Russian businessman, Evgeny Lebedev, who I hear was the fifth guest around the table that evening with the Goves and the Johnsons. Liz Hurley had been expected but didn’t end up there and missed out on a date with history ...

Quite how historic the Johnson/Gove intervention in this debate is will only become clear over time. One minister who is backing Remain believes it injects life into the coverage but doesn’t change the result. “It makes it more of a real debate but the fundamentals are the fundamentals.”

“Boris and Michael,” the minister says, “don’t buy the economic arguments (of the Outers), that we’d be freer to trade outside. They don’t buy the immigration arguments. They’ve been the two biggest voices against Theresa (May).” So they both, the minister says, end up focusing on “sovereignty, which literally means nothing to anybody”.

EU summits seldom go according to plan, even on the crucial issue of what and when the prime ministers, chancellors and presidents are eating.

The meticulous preparations for David Cameron’s 30-hour Brexit drama on Thursday and Friday included an unusual treat - a full English breakfast on Friday morning to seal the deal of Britain’s proposed new settlement with Europe.

The breakfast never took place because there was no agrement at the time. Brunch was scheduled and missed, as was lunch. It was a Friday evening dinner before the leaders could toast agreement between Cameron and the other 27.

But the full English was never on the menu anyway, it emerged yesterday. Whether scrambled, poached, or sunny-side-up, eggs are banned for the five-star caterers who serve the summit meals.

There would have been very serious difficulties over whether to serve eggs, it was disclosed in diplomatic-speak, because of fears that any of the leaders could have contracted salmonella poisoning. Some were said to be disappointed and are starting a campaign to bring back eggs.

The Conservative David Morris, MP for Morecambe and Lunesdale, told Cameron a few minutes ago that he was suppoting him over the EU referendum, even though he was an arch Eurosceptic. He told the prime minister.

There’s nobody in this House more Eurosceptic than myself. But I’m standing at the side of the prime minister on this one. I’ll tell you why. Because the prime minister has always stood by me and my people in Morecombe.

The statement is now over. It lasted for about two hours and 40 minutes, and 103 backbenchers contributed, according to John Bercow, the Speaker.

I will post a summary soon.

Vote Leave has sent out a briefing note challenging 12 points that Cameron made in his statement. The whole thing is too long to publish in full, but it may get posted on the Vote Leave website later.

In one of the key points, Vote Leave says Cameron was wrong to say that a country would have to accept free movement to get access to the single market. Here is an extract from the briefing.

There is no requirement for European countries to accept the free movement of persons in order to trade freely with the EU:

  • As the European Commission itself states, ‘the EU also has free trade deals in force with a number of countries and territories in Europe’. These include ‘the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, [and] Serbia’ (European Commission, 3 December 2013). Free movement does not form part of these free trade deals.
  • The EU recently concluded the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area Agreement with Ukraine, which is awaiting ratification. The Commission states ‘Ukraine and the EU will eliminate respectively 99.1% and 98.1% of duties in trade value’ (European Commission, 2014). The agreement makes some provision for liberalisation of visas but does not include the free movement of labour (Association Agreement, 29 May 2015, art. 19).

This pattern is even clearer among non-European countries which have free trade agreements with the EU.

  • On 18 October 2013, the EU concluded the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada. The text, published on 26 September 2014, runs to 1,634 pages, and covers goods, non-tariff barriers, investment, services, including financial services, transport, telecommunications and procurement among others things. The European Commission states that ‘CETA is going to eliminate all industrial duties’ and 92% of agricultural duties. Save for some minor provisions on temporary visas, the agreement does not include the free movement of persons.
  • Other non-European countries with free trade agreements with the EU which do not accept free movement include Chile, Peru and Colombia (European Commission, 3 December 2013).

Cameron has just told MPs that he thinks he had demonstrated there is “plenty of punch” in the EU referendum campaign. But he wants to run a positive campaign too, he said.

A “source close to Boris Johnson” has told the Times’s Matt Chorley that the mayor of London did not even notice David Cameron having a go at him in the Commons today.

You can make of that what you will ...

In the Commons, in response to a question from a Labour MP, Cameron has just returned to his joke about instigating divorce proceedings not being a good way of staying together. He made it clear that he was talking about the mayor of London when he referred earlier to those who thought there could be a second referendum. And he said in the case of Brexit Britain would not be divorcing one partner, but “27 potentially unhappy partners”. He said he had witnessed multiple weddings. But he could think any examples of multiple divorces resulting in subsequent multiple weddings.

Robert Halfon, the Conservative party deputy chairman, has written an article for the Daily Telegraph explaining why he is voting to remain in the EU. He focuses on security issues, saying he wants Britain to be part of a strong alliance of nations.

Here’s an extract.

None of us know how the deal negotiated by the Prime Minister will play out - as only time will tell - although I suspect there will be some real changes . I also believe that at the very least, the deal may have stopped the direction of federalist travel.

But the truth is, whether the deal is brilliant or not, it makes no difference to my decision. I am voting to stay in the EU because I am frightened. Frightened of the rise of Islamism across the world and what it means in terms of the battle of civilisations. Frightened of events in Syria, the use of chemical weapons, the weakness of the response of the West - until very recently. Frightened of a strong Iran, whose wings may have been clipped in terms of nuclear weapons - for the time being, but still acts as a major oppressor across the Middle East funding Hezbollah and Hamas. Frightened of a re-emergent Russia, recreating colonial outposts in Syria, her actions in the Ukraine and poisoning her own citizens on British soil. Frightened of the future of an existential threat to Israel facing the arrival of ISIS in Gaza, a hostile Iran and the spill-over of the Syrian conflict. Frightened of the return of major terrorist atrocities to Western Europe. Frightened of the revival of anti-semitism. Frightened of the weakening of the Chinese economy and what effect it will have on the world.

Robert Halfon
Robert Halfon Photograph: Geoff Pugh/REX

This is from Tim Montgomerie, the Times columnist and ConservativeHome founder.

Vote Leave has issued a statement from Priti Patel, the employment minister, responding to David Cameron’s statement and criticising his deal for not going far enough.

The prime minister has tried hard but the EU refused to give the British people what they want.

EU courts and politicians will still be in charge of our borders, our courts and our economy. The deal is not legally binding and can be ripped up by EU judges after our vote. Even if it did come into force it would change just 1% of the EU Treaties.

The only way to take back control over our economy to free up our businesses to create more jobs and growth is to Vote Leave.

Cameron is still responding to questions. Labour’s Kelvin Hopkins asked him why he thought the EU would not be willing to agree a trade deal with an independent UK, given that EU countries sell more to the UK than the UK sells to them. Cameron said there was indeed a trade deficit in goods. But in services, where British firms were looking to expand, there was a trade surplus. EU countries might not be so willing to agree a trade deal covering services, he said.

Updated

Earlier the statement brought back memories of the 2010-2015 parliament because Nick Clegg, the former Lib Dem leader, and Ed Miliband, the former Labour leader, were both called to ask questions. Now Clegg and Miliband speak very rarely in the chamber.

Clegg said the referendum should be about the future of the UK, not about the “divided” Conservative party.

And Miliband said he was also in favour of staying in the EU. He said that although Britain did not always get its own way, it exerts real influence “on all major issues”.

Downing Street has laid the statutory instrument setting 23 June as the date for the EU referendum. It is here (pdf).

EU referendum regulations
EU referendum regulations Photograph: Government

Corbyn's speech - Extracts

Here is more from Jeremy Corbyn’s response to Cameron. Corbyn said:

We welcome the fact that it is now in the hands of the people of this country to decide that issue. The Labour party and the trade union movement are overwhelmingly for staying in because we believe that the European Union has brought investment, jobs and protection for workers, consumers and environment and we are convinced that a vote to remain is in the best interests of the people ...

In the 21st Century as a country and as a continent and indeed as a human race we face some challenging issues - how to tackle climate change, how to address the power of global corporations, how to ensure they pay fair taxes, how to tackle cyber crime and terrorism, how we trade fairly and protect jobs and pay in an era of globalisation, how we address the causes of the huge refugee movements across the world, how we adapt to a world where people of all countries move more frequently to live, work and retire.

All of these issues are serious, pressing and self evidently can only be solved by international cooperation.

The European Union will be a vital part of how we as a country meet those challenges, therefore it’s more than disappointing that the prime minister’s deal has failed to address a single one of those issues.

The reality is that this entire negotiation has not been about the challenges facing our continent, neither has it been about the issues facing the people of Britain, indeed it’s been a theatrical sideshow about trying to appease, or failing to appease, half of the prime minister’s own Conservative party.

Here is more on Boris Johnson’s question to David Cameron.

Cameron's attack on Boris Johnson - Full text

Here is the key extract from David Cameron’s statement aimed at Boris Johnson.

Mr Speaker, this is a vital decision for the future of our country. And we should also be clear that it is a final decision.

An idea has been put forward that if the country votes to leave we could have a second renegotiation and perhaps another referendum.

Mr Speaker I won’t dwell on the irony that some people who want to vote to leave – apparently want to use a leave vote to remain. But such an approach also ignores more profound points about democracy, diplomacy and legality. This is a straight democratic decision – staying in or leaving - and no government can ignore that. Having a second renegotiation followed by a second referendum is not on the ballot paper.

And for a Prime Minister to ignore the express will of the British people to leave the EU would not just be wrong, it would be undemocratic.

On the diplomacy, the idea that other European countries would be ready to start a second negotiation is for the birds. Many are under pressure for what they have already agreed.

Then there is the legality. I want to spell out this point very carefully. If the British people vote to leave there is only one way to bring that about – and that is to trigger Article 50 of the Treaties and begin the process of exit. And the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away.

Let me be absolutely clear how this works. It triggers a two year time period to negotiate the arrangements for exit. At the end of this period, if no agreement is in place then exit is automatic unless every one of the 27 other EU Member States agrees to a delay. And we should be clear that this process is not an invitation to re-join, it is a process for leaving.

Sadly, Mr Speaker, I have known a number of couples who have begun divorce proceedings. But I do not know any who have begun divorce proceedings in order to renew their marriage vows.

We should also be clear about what would happen if that deal to leave wasn’t done within two years. Our current access to the single market would cease immediately after two years were up. And our current trade agreements with 53 countries around the world would lapse. This cannot be described as anything other than risk, uncertainty and a leap in the dark that could hurt working people in our country for years to come.

And this is not some theoretical question, this is a real decision about people’s lives. When it comes to people’s jobs, it is simply not enough to say that it will be all right on the night and we will work it out.

And here is Cameron’s peroration.

And Mr Speaker, let me end by saying this. I am not standing for re-election. I have no other agenda than what is best for our country. I am standing here today telling you what I think. My responsibility as Prime Minister is to speak plainly about what I believe is right for our country.And that is what I will do every day for the next four months.

Cameron's opening statement - Snap summary

Cameron’s opening statement - Snap summary: David Cameron gives a Commons statement after every EU summit and normally they follow a predictable pattern; he says that he set out with X number of aims, and then he explains he has achieved all X of them (even if he hasn’t). The most interesting comments normally come in the exchanges with MPs.

But this was different. Cameron gave a combative defence of his deal, but then he devoted the final two minutes or so of his statement to what every MP in the chamber will have recognised as a withering, uncompromising and near-contemptuous attack on Boris Johnson. Observers not familiar with EU referendum arcana may not have noticed, because Cameron did not refer to Johnson directly and he focused instead on those arguing that an Out vote could be followed by a second referendum. This is an idea first championed by Dominic Cummings (the former Michael Gove adviser who is even more unpopular with Cameron than Johnson is right now), but Johnson has flirted with it and in his Telegraph article today Johnson implies that voting Out could force Brussels to think again. The highlight of the attack was a joke (which Cameron delivered with good timing) about how he has never known anyone initiate divorce proceedings in the hope of that they can stay together. The joke had the advantage of making a very faint reference to Johnson’s less-than-perfect marital record (“advantage” if antagonising Johnson was the intention, which it almost certainly was). Cameron also said he had no agenda other than what was best for the UK, which was an obvious reference to Johnson’s naked opportunism.

(Johnson’s father Stanley made a brave attempt this morning to claim that careerism was not part of Johnson’s thinking, but if you can find a single MP in the Commons who believes that, I’ll buy you a copy of his next book.)

Downing Street has made a deliberate effort not to antagonise the ministers who have come out in favour of leaving the EU, and Cameron has been very conciliatory towards Michael Gove, claiming (not entirely accurately) that he has favoured Brexit for years and years. But Johnson has been mocked, openly and effectively. This is personal, and a bit nasty, and Johnson is unlikely to let it rest.

Here is the key exchange.

Cameron takes a swipe at Boris Johnson

Updated

Boris Johnson rises. There is lots of jeering, and someone shouts “Tuck your shirt in”. He asks how the deal returns sovereignty to parliament.

Cameron says the deal brings back some welfare powers and some immigration powers. But, more than that, it introduces a ratchet that brings back power to nation states. And the government has legislated to ensure there will be a referendum if any government wants to hand over further powers to Brussels.

Updated

Cameron is replying to Corbyn.

He says many of the things he negotiated were in Labour’s manifesto.

He jokes that, by campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU, Corbyn risks being seen as a member of the establishment.

And he says he does not share Corbyn’s suspicion of trade deals.

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, is responding to Cameron.

He says he went to Brussels himself to meet socialist colleagues. One told him an English Tory (Cameron) had reduced the renegotiation to an argument about cutting benefits for migrants.

He says Cameron was protecting the interests of the City of London. He was acting for Tory donors, he says. It was the same principle that saw George Osborne go to Brussels to oppose plans to curb City bonuses.

He says Labour oppose the secretive parts of the transatlantic trade and investment partnership.

Human rights should be part of TTIP, he says.

He says Cameron should have used the summit to discuss measures that could stop workers being undercut by exploited migrants.

He says now the “sideshow” of the renegotiation is over, we can get on with focusing on the main issue. Labour will make the case for Britain to stay in the EU, he says. He says the party’s campaign will be led by Alan Johnson.

This is from the Evening Standard’s Pippa Crerar.

And this is from the New Statesman’s George Eaton.

This is from the BBC’s James Landale.

This is from the Telegraph’s Steven Swinford.

Updated

Cameron mocks the idea floated by Boris Johnson that an Out vote could lead to a second referendum

Cameron says he is starting the process that will lead to a referendum on 23 June.

The Foreign Office is today publishing a report on the EU renegotiation. That is a requirement under the Referendum Act, he says.

And he says a referendum vote will be final.

Some people have suggested there could be a second referendum, he says. He says he will not comment on the irony of people wanting to use a leave vote to remain.

(This is aimed at Boris Johnson, and generates lots of jeering.)

Camneron says the idea of there being a second referendum is “for the birds”.

If Britain votes to leave, he will use the article 50 procedure under the Lisbon treaty to initiate exit.

He says that once this starts, after two years Britain leaves automatically unless all member states agree to extend the time period.

He says that, sadly, he has none some couples who have divorced. But he has never known any that have initiated divorce proceedings so that they can stay together.

And he says that, after the two-year period set out in article 50, Britain’s trade arrangements with the EU would automatically lapse.

So there would be a period of uncertaintly as new trade deals were negotiated, he says.

He says leaving the EU would not give Britain more influence.

Cameron says Britain will have a special status in the EU following his renegotiation.

Cameron says Britain will be exempt from “ever closer union”.

And he says that Europe is no longer just a multi-speed Europe. Now, following his renegotiation, countries are heading to different destinations.

Cameron says people said he would never get a four-year restriction on EU migrants claiming benefits. But he did get this, he says.

He says that the “emergency brake” could still be applying to some claimants by 2028.

If Britain leaves the EU, but wants access to the single market, it will have to accept free movement, he says. But the benefit exemptions he negotiated would not apply, he says.

Cameron says it would take “years and years” if Britain tried to negotiate new trade deals outside the EU.

Cameron says he wanted reforms to make the EU more competitive. He achieved these, he says.

There are commitments to complete trade and investment agreements with the US, Japan, China, India and Australia.

David Cameron is making his statement now.

He says he has spent the last nine months working on EU reforms in four areas.

He says he has permanently protected the pound, and ensured that Britain cannot be discriminated against.

British taxpayers will not have to pay to bail out the eurozone, he says.

The eurozone will not be able to act as a bloc against British interests, he says.

For example, banks cannot be forced to located to eurozone countries.

Cameron's statement to MPs on the EU renegotiation

David Cameron will be giving his statement to MPs on the EU renegotiation shortly.

He is likely to echo what he said in his press conference after the EU summit finished on Friday night and in his statement in Downing Street on Saturday.

What will be particularly interesting will be what MPs, particularly Tories, have to say about the deal.

This is what happened last time he gave a Commons statement on Europe, just under three weeks ago.

Andrew Tyrie, the Conservative MP who chairs the Commons Treasury committee and the liaison committee (the one made up of all committee chairs which questions the prime minister regularly), has written to David Cameron asking the government to produce an analysis of the costs and benefits of EU membership.

He is also telling Cameron that the liaison committee will expect him to give evidence about the EU referendum.

Tyrie said:

The debate on the Scottish referendum was informed by a detailed, written analysis of what, in the government’s view, was at stake. The government should produce a similar analysis for the EU referendum, and the sooner the better.

The liaison committee – the committee of committee chairmen – will want to cross examine the prime minister on the referendum and the deal which, on behalf of Britain, he has just negotiated. The committee are looking forward to him agreeing a date soon.

Here’s the Guardian story about Moody’s warning that Brexit could lead to higher government borrowing costs.

And here’s a response to Moody’s from David Davis, the Conservative backbencher and leading Out campaigner.

Moody’s appears to have an adolescent unwillingness to confront conventional wisdom.

This is the company that failed to predict the biggest banking crisis of modern times, and that downgraded the UK’s credit rating in the face of sensible fiscal consolidation.

Moody’s has given us a litany of bad predictions in recent times, and has just provided us with another.

They are concerned that in the event of Brexit, the UK’s exports would suffer unless, “the UK managed to negotiate a new trade arrangement with the EU that preserves at least some of the trade benefits of EU membership.”

The fact is that we currently import £59bn more from Europe than we export. After Brexit we would be Europe’s largest export market, worth £289bn in 2014, larger than China.

We are too valuable a market for Europe to shut off. Within minutes of a vote for Brexit the CEO’s of Mercedes, BMW, VW and Audi will be knocking down Chancellor Merkel’s door, together with the leaders of Europe’s other key industries, demanding that there be no barriers to European access to the British market ...

And if it is trade deals Moody’s are looking for then we can negotiate such deals far more quickly outside of the EU, and far more in our interest than the EU currently does on our behalf.

So Moody’s prediction that the economic costs of Britain leaving the EU would outweigh the benefits looks to be as inaccurate as we have come to expect from the ratings agencies.

David Davis
David Davis Photograph: Niklas Halle'N/AFP/Getty Images

This is from the BBC’s Norman Smith.

Craig09 posted this below the line.

Andrew: The obsession with the greatness and popularity of Boris Johnson is simply wrong. Let’s have a look at his recent election results. In 2012 Johnson could not even get 50% of Londoners out to vote and only 50% of Londoners who voted voted for him- only a few percentage points ahead of Ken. In 2015 only 60% of people turned out and of those who turned out again only 50% of people voted for him.

Here’s my reply.

1) He was up against Ken Livingstone, who had a good record as mayor and was no slouch when it came to winning elections.

2) The polls suggest you’re wrong. For example, in a ComRes favourability poll published earlier this month he was the only one of eight politicians named to get a favourable rating.

ComRes poll
ComRes poll Photograph: ComRes

3) And campaigners say you’re wrong too. A source in the Sadiq Khan camp told me recently why Khan doesn’t attack Johnson’s record. Their focus group research suggests that, if you criticise Johnson, people don’t accept it. That’s very unusual for a figure who’s been in office for eight years.

Lunchtime summary

  • The pound has reached its lowest point against the dollar for almost seven years following news that Boris Johnson is campaigning for Britain to leave the EU, making Brexit more likely. (See 1.28pm.)
  • The GMB union has said it will campaign for Britain to stay in the EU. But it will not ally itself with any other In campaign. This is from its new general secretary, Tim Roache.

The exploitation of people desperate for a better life has been growing in recent years. Undercutting wage rates and denying local people jobs has become the visible signs of this corporate exploitation. It’s wrong, it’s outrageous and it is completely stoppable. Not by voting to leave the EU, but by demanding a return to that vision of a social Europe.

Does anybody actually believe that the European laws on things like maternity and parental leave, health and safety protections, equal rights for part time workers, TUPE ,paid holidays and so much more would be protected by the Conservatives, UKIP or any of their fellow travellers? Dream on if you do ...

The closeness of the polls must be the wakeup call for those in Westminster and Brussels that the British people are serious about change and change for the better but the harsh straight fact is that we cannot get that change by voting to leave the EU.

  • Some MPs are claiming that more than half of Conservative MPs will vote to leave the EU.
  • Boris Johnson has accused those worried about the impact of Brexit of “Anglo-scepticism” (ie, being hostile to the idea of an independent UK). (See 12.58pm.)
  • Stanley Johnson, Boris’s father, has claimed that his son’s decision to campaign for Britain to leave the EU is more likely to be “career-ending” than career-enhancing. (See 9.06am.)
  • Liam Fox, the Conservative former defence secretary, has hinted that he might run again for the Tory leadership. (See 11.37am.)

George Galloway, the former Respect MP, had very testy interview with the BBC’s Jo Coburn on the Daily Politics earlier. He objected to being asked about his controversial appearance at the Grassroots Out (GO) rally on Friday night that prompted some in the audience to walk out. Galloway said he had not been told this subject would come up.

He told Coburn:

If you had told me that I was coming in to discuss me I would have said there are much bigger issues that the British people are occupied by. I don’t want to defend me at all. You are not my judge. You are not fit to be my judge ...

Please stop this. You misled me into coming today, and every question you have asked has been about me. It is so childish. It is so tabloid.

You can watch the exchange here.

My colleague Michael White has written a withering blog about Boris Johnson. Here’s an extract.

No, Boris thinks he can have his Brexit cake and eat it, that Angela Merkel (if she survives that long in Germany’s refugee crisis ) will say “just kidding, here’s the deal I know you really want”. It is cloud cuckoo land in a Europe which is slipping dangerously close to fragmentation as opportunistic rascals less charming than Boris copy his example. “Contagion” is the word to fear, and “Frexit”. Marine le Pen didn’t go to Eton. It won’t be nice if it happens, certainly not at Dover.

So dithery Boris has half bottled it. He stands before us with his trousers down and says: “Vote for me, I don’t really mean it, it’s all a laugh.”

No it isn’t. It’s very serious, as Boris knows very well.

And here’s the whole thing.

This is from Matthew Holehouse, the Telegraph’s Brussels correspondent.

This is from ITV’s Tom Bradby.

German broadsheet Die Welt describes Boris Johnson’s back of the Leave campaign as “a real blow to [David] Cameron”.

“Johnson campaigning for Brexit makes a future European Union without Great Britain seem a little bit more likely. The eloquent conversative, whose wit and eccentric makes him popular across the social divide, could mobilise the crucial third of the public who are still undecided about leaving the EU”, writes the paper’s London correspondent Stefanie Bolzen.

“Whatever domestic calculations may be motivating the British political elite – by having Boris Johnson’s unmistakable visage as the face of the ‘Out’ campaign, the UK has made another step towards the exit door. And with that, the future of the EU has become that bit less secure too.”

But not everyone in the German press is convinced that Boris’ intervention is a game-changer.

“It’s far from certain,” Jochen Buchsteiner writes in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, “that Cameron is heading for the defeat that some are predicting after Johnson’s battle cry”.

The argument presentend in Johnson’s Telegraph article, Buchsteiner writes, is “more complicated than that of his enemies, but not without force”.

Sterling hits lowest level for almost seven years

The sterling selloff has accelerated, driving Britain’s currency down to its lowest level in almost seven years.

The pound just traded as low as $1.406, a fall of more than three cents (or 2.3%) since Friday night.

It’s not been this low since March 2009, when the global economy was mired in recession following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Traders are expecting more volatility following Boris’s decision to back the Out campaign, and Moody’s warning that Brexit would be bad for the UK economy.

Updated

Earlier I posted links to the Guido Fawkes and Coffee House lists of how Tory MPs intend to vote in the EU referendum. See 12.44pm. Their figures are not the same.

On the World at One Martha Kearney has just said that, according to the BBC’s numbers, 111 Tory MPs are currently in the Remain camp, and 97 are backing Leave.

Leave.EU, the Ukip-linked Out campaign which supports Grassroots Out (GO) and wants GO to be designated as the lead Leave group (see 10.44am), is challenging Boris Johnson to accept that there would be no second referendum (see 11.58am) after an Out vote. This is from Richard Tice, the Leave.EU co-founder.

Leave.EU is delighted to welcome Boris Johnson to the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union. Following, however, his latest Daily Telegraph column where he stated the EU “only really listen to a population when it says no” we are concerned that he still harbours a belief that the EU can be reformed and that the best way to achieve this is to vote Leave and then open up fresh negotiations.

If there is anything the past six months of shuttle diplomacy and last week’s choreographed negotiations showed it is that the EU will not reform. Even the heavily diluted deal has been confirmed as worthless in the space of a few days. Only on Saturday Francois Hollande stated “there was no exception to the rules of the single market, there are no planned revision of the treaties and no veto on eurozone”.

It cannot be made any plainer that the EU will continue down its road of ever greater union through centralisation and reams of expensive regulations. We call on Boris Johnson to accept this and agree that there is a need for only one referendum, not as many as it takes to keep us inside the EU.

This, from the Times’s Michael Savage, is perceptive.

Here’s Susan Kramer, the Lib Dem economic spokesman, on the fall in the value of the pound.

If those calling for us to leave are serious about wanting to keep Britain great, they should be worrying about what is happening to the great British pound.

The dramatic fall in sterling today is driven by fear of Brexit and means that the threat of leaving is already costing British business. Imagine how much worse it will for British exporters if we withdraw from the world’s biggest single market.

This is from my colleague Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Rome.

Italian prime minister Matteo Renzi gave his “sincere and brutal” assessment of the debate over Brexit, and it doesn’t look good for Brits.

“The consequences will be worse for English citizens than for European citizens in the sense that if the UK leaves Europe the main problem will be for the UK, for its companies and entrepreneurs, for its citizens,” Renzi said at a press conference at the foreign press centre.

“That’s why I am convinced that in the end common sense will prevail, because it’s not just right for the UK to remain in Europe, it’s useful especially for them.”

But Renzi is under no illusion that the campaign will be an easy one for David Cameron.

“The referendum won’t be a “passeggiata’ [walk in the park] for anyone,” Renzi said.

While Renzi insisted that the deal reached late on Friday was a “good compromise for all”, he said citizens were not about to vote on technical matters. Rather, it was a philosophical question about whether “Europe is still attractive or not”.

“We know that this element of appeal in the UK has always been challenged there more than elsewhere ... it will be a very difficult campaign,” Renzi said.

“David is a great organiser of electoral campaigns so I send him a gigantic wish of good luck – but it’s natural and logical that the [game] will be played within English public opinion. I don’t think I am in condition to make a forecast but I hope [Cameron] wins,” he said.

Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, speaking at a press conference at Rome’s foreign press association
Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, speaking at a press conference at Rome’s foreign press association Photograph: Domenico Stinellis/AP

Updated

Johnson accuses those worried about Brexit of 'Ango-scepticism'

Boris Johnson was presenting his final budget at mayor at City Hall this morning. During the session Len Duvall, Labour’s leader in the London assembly, told him he was “sacrificing London’s future economic security on the basis of [his] personal ambition” because he was backing Brexit.

Johnson said he did not accept that.

There would be arguments both ways about the impact of Brexit on the City, he said.

You will certainly hear in the next few months all sorts of people scaremongering and you will hear people saying that we can’t survive outside [the EU]. You will hear quite a lot of Anglo-scepticism - I saw somebody use that word yesterday in the Sunday Times; there are people who don’t think that Britain could stand on her own two feet and all the rest of it. I have to say I think that is profoundly wrong.

I think that the people who make these arguments are the same as the people who warned that we shouldn’t leave the ERM, which turned out to be the salvation of the UK economy; and they are the same as the people who said that we had to join the euro, which turned out to be a catastrophic mistake and a very unfortunate enterprise.

Boris Johnson presents his final budget at City Hall.
Boris Johnson presents his final budget at City Hall. Photograph: Nils Jorgensen/REX/Shutterstock

Sadiq Khan, the Labour candidate for London mayor, has criticised Zac Goldsmith, his Tory rival, for coming out in favour of Brexit. Khan said:

Zac Goldsmith’s desire to leave Europe poses a serious threat to Londoners’ jobs, livelihoods and security. By placing dogma ahead of Londoners’ interests, he has chosen to jeopardise our place as a global city, put our safety at greater risk and sacrifice our ability to build a better future for all Londoners. Zac Goldsmith is advocating a position that is clearly damaging to the people he is seeking to represent.

More junior ministers have been announcing how they will vote in the EU referendum.

Julian Brazier, a defence minister, will vote to leave the EU.

And James Wharton, the communities minister, will be voting for Brexit too.

But James Brokenshire, the Home Office minister, will be voting to remain in the EU.

The Guido Fawkes has a spreadsheet showing how MPs intend to vote. According to their figures, 142 Tories currently are saying they will vote Out, and 134 are saying they will vote In.

Coffee House is also keeping a tally, but their figures are slightly different. They have 76 Tories declared Out, and 93 backing In.

One minister, Tracey Crouch, has a reasonably good excuse for not having given the matter much thought over the weekend.

This is from my colleague Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Rome.

Boris Johnson’s break with Cameron garnered headlines in Italy, where the London mayor and “consummate politician” was dubbed “Mr No” by La Stampa, with one columnist suggesting Johnson’s move was a personal political calculation. The move was described as a “stab in the back” against Cameron.

The front of Italy’s main daily, Corriere della Sera, included a big photograph of Johnson pulling on a rope in a tug-of-war stance. The paper interviewed one Italian businessman and former longtime resident of London, Flavio Briatore, who said it was clear that Brits would vote to leave the EU and that London had an international, but not a “European dimension”.

“Londoners do not live European, neither in their finances nor in their culture. And the politics of David Cameron demonstrates this,” he said.

Updated

Cost of Brexit would outweigh the benefits, says credit ratings agency Moody's

The cost of Brexit would outweigh the benefits, the credit ratings agency Moody’s has warned. And it says Britain could have its credit rating lowered, leading to higher borrowing costs for the government, if it votes to leave the EU. Here is the Press Association story.

The economic costs of a decision to quit the European Union would outweigh the benefits, credit ratings agency Moody’s has warned.

A Brexit could have a negative effect on the UK’s credit rating, potentially pushing up the cost of Government borrowing, and may lead to a “prolonged period of uncertainty”, Moody’s said.

The agency welcomed the announcement of the June 23 vote as a way of addressing the issue quickly but said the result was “too close to call”.

“We consider it positive that the referendum will take place as soon as June, as a lengthy period of uncertainty on the part of firms and investors would damage the UK’s economic growth prospects,” senior vice president Kathrin Muehlbronner said.

“That said, the outcome of the referendum remains wide open. In our view, a decision to leave the EU would be credit negative for the UK economy.”

The firm said “the economic costs of a decision to leave the EU would outweigh the economic benefits” and “unless the UK managed to negotiate a new trade arrangement with the EU that preserves at least some of the trade benefits of EU membership, the UK’s exports would suffer”.

A vote to leave “would likely lead to a prolonged period of uncertainty, which would negatively affect investment”, Moody’s warned.

The firm said it would assign a “negative outlook” to the UK’s current Aa1 rating following a vote to exit.

Asked for the PM’s response to the warning from Moody’s, David Cameron’s official spokeswoman said: “The prime minister has been very clear of the risks of uncertainty of a vote to leave, and that a vote to remain is in the interests of both our economic and national security.”

No 10 rules out second referendum after possible Brexit vote

The Number 10 lobby briefing is over. The prime minister’s spokeswoman used it to confirm that, if Britain votes to leave the EU, David Cameron will start the process that leads to Britain leaving the union. This involves invoking article 50 of the Lisbon treaty.

This might seem obvious, but it is significant because it quashes the prospect of an Out vote leading to a further renegotiation and a second referendum.

This is an idea that has been floated by Dominic Cummings, Vote Leave’s campaign director, Michael Gove’s former special adviser, and @odysseanproject on Twitter. Boris Johnson has expressed interest in it in the past, and in his Telegraph article explaining his decision to back Brexit Johnson implies that he is still hoping an Out vote could lead to a second renegotiation. He writes.

There is only one way to get the change we need, and that is to vote to go, because all EU history shows that they only really listen to a population when it says No ...

The people who run the various EU institutions – whom we like to ply with crass abuse – are, in my experience, principled and thoughtful officials. They have done some very good things: I think of the work of Sir Leon Brittan, for instance, as Competition Commissioner, and his fight against state aid.

They just have a different view of the way Europe should be constructed. I would hope they would see a vote to leave as a challenge, not just to strike a new and harmonious relationship with Britain (in which those benefits could be retained) but to recover some of the competitiveness that the continent has lost in the last decades.

Even before this morning’s Number 10 statement the “second referendum” strategy seemed fairly implausible. At the EU summit last week Charles Michel, the Belgian prime minister, took the lead in firming up the text to try to close down the chance of Britain getting a second chance at renegotiation.

Liam Fox hints that that he might run for the Tory leadership again

Boris Johnson’s decision to back Brexit is widely assumed to be motivated in part by his own leadership ambitions. But he is not the only figure eyeing up a possible vacancy at the top of the Conservative party. Liam Fox, the former defence secretary and a leading figure in the Out campaign, was on the BBC’s Victoria Derbyshire show earlier and he strongly implied that he fancied another run at the leadership.

Here are the main points from the interview.

Well, we’d have to wait and see. At my age, at 54, nowadays in British politics that’s almost geriatric. According to the media you’ve got to be in your 30s or 40s. There’s a big debate to be had in this country about age but this is not the point to have it.

When pressed if that was a no, he replied: “Never say never again.” To fully appreciate quite how eager he seemed, you have to watch the interview. At this point Fox was smiling broadly, and there seemed to be a twinke of anticipation in his eye.

The question was prompted by this ConservativeHome survey of party members from January showing Fox as the favourite to succeed David Cameron as party leader.

Poll of Tory members
Poll of Tory members Photograph: ConservativeHome
  • Fox said that he thought Cameron could remain as prime minister if Britain voted to leave the EU - although he also said it would be “very difficult” to predict what would happen. He said:

Constitutionally of course he perfectly can remain as prime minister to negotiate that. I think it’s very difficult to determine the political dynamics that will exist after the rough and tumble of a referendum. But I think there’s no reason why he couldn’t stay on and I know that a lot of my colleagues think that he should stay on. Exactly what the position will be politically, once we’ve been through the whole process of the referendum where … we’ll have to wait and see.

Yesterday Chris Grayling, the leader of the Commons, and Priti Patel, the employment minister - two of the “gang of six” cabinet ministers backing Brexit - said they expected Cameron to remain as prime minister if Britain voted to leave. But Owen Paterson, the former environment secretary and another Outer, last night refused four times to say that he thought Cameron should stay in those circumstances in a BBC interview.

  • Fox said leaving the EU would make Britain less vulnerable to terrorist attack, backing the argument Iain Duncan Smith made yesterday. (See 10.06pm.) Fox said:

The Europol says 5,000 EU citizens have been trained in terror camps and come back to Europe. We know that there’s been a lot of people coming into the European Union from places as far as Afghanistan or Iran. It’s impossible to know whether they’re genuine refugees or economic migrants or whether they’re sympathetic to some of these extremist movements or whether in fact IS and other groups have been able to infiltrate them. Now, if we are unable to control our borders, we don’t know who these people [are who] will be coming into the UK.

  • He rejected the suggestion that voting to leave the EU would increase the chances of Scotland voting to leave the UK. This should not be a factor in the campaign, he said.

Scotland decided to remain part of the United Kingdom. That’s something that I welcome. And of course if Britain decided to remain in the European Union there’s no guarantee that Scotland at some point wouldn’t have another referendum. So it shouldn’t be a consideration that forces us to abandon the merits or demerits of European Union membership.

I’ve taken the quotes from PoliticsHome.

Liam Fox
Liam Fox Photograph: BBC

Johnson says EU referendum should not be reduced to 'a debate about personalities'

Boris Johnson has arrived at the House of Commons. A spin doctor would probably advise that it is best not to give interviews while pushing a bike and wearing a silly hat in the drizzle, but Johnson has never been one for convention. As he was doorstepped by reporters, he dismissed claims that his decision to back Brexit was motivated by his own ambition to be prime minister.

I would say what [people] need to do is focus on what is actually happening in Europe, rather than endlessly trying to reduce everything to a debate about personalities.

Boris Johnson arriving at the House of Commons
Boris Johnson arriving at the House of Commons Photograph: BBC

Back in the City, the pound has suffered its biggest one-day fall since May 2010, reports my colleague Graeme Wearden.

Boris Johnson’s decision to back the Out campaign sparked a rush to sell sterling as soon as the Asian markets opened, and London traders have now followed suit.

The pound has tumbled by 1.7% to $1.417 against the US dollar, a move not seen since the 2010 general election. That has driven sterling down to a 15-month low against a basket of currencies, and the cost of insuring against further volatility has jumped this morning too.

It’s an old cliche, but the City really doesn’t like uncertainty. And the news that such a heavy hitting politician has backed the Brexit side has spooked investors.

Analysts are predicting months of turbulence ahead of the referendum.

Rating agency Moody’s has weighed in too, warning that “the economic costs of a decision to leave the EU would outweigh the economic benefit”.

Shares aren’t suffering a Boris effect, though. The FTSE 100 has gained around 1.1%, as recent fears of a global recession fade.

Our Business Liveblog has more details and reaction from the City.

Here’s a comment from Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, a foreign exchange company, on the fall in the value of the pound.

Sterling seems to have fallen off the Boris cliff this morning. Just as things were beginning to look up last week, with strong retail sales data and a bit of jawboning from Jon Cunliffe of the MPC, the weekend’s political events have once again sent the pound reeling.

Boris Johnson’s cleverly staged endorsement of the campaign to leave the United Kingdom grabbed headlines, and regardless of the London mayor’s political motivations, this has had a sharp effect on sterling exchange rates. The implication is clear: while the Brexit referendum remains a live prospect, sterling is likely to be susceptible to these types of shocks, especially as the referendum date approaches.

This could just be the start of the great Brexit Selloff of 2016. As June 23rd approaches, polling is likely to narrow between the yes and no camps. In the run-up to the Scottish referendum some polls were even showing the independence vote on top. The prospect of such an event is pretty sobering for sterling, which would likely fall through even the multi-year lows seen earlier this year if this weekend’s reaction is anything to go by.

Or, to put in another way, your summer holiday may be getting considerably more expensive ...

There has been some speculation that having Boris Johnson backing the Vote Leave campaign (as he did yesterday, although he claimed he could not remember its name) will increase it chances of being designated the official Out campaign by the Electoral Commission.

There are two organisations seeking the Out designation: Vote Leave, which is Westminster-focused and Tory-dominated, and Grassroots Out (GO), which is grassroots-focused and arguably more cross-party, but also strongly Ukip-backed. On the In side there is only one main organisation, Britain Stronger in Europe, which seems certain to get lead campaign status.

When the Electoral Commission does designate, the two lead groups on each side will get a grant worth up to £600,000, campaign broadcasts and free mailing. They will also be allowed to spend up to £7m, instead of £700,000, the limit that applies to other registered campaign groups. So the outcome of the Vote Leave/GO designation battle is actually very significant.

And Johnson’s decision to support Vote Leave may not make much difference. A former Electoral Commissioner insider (who does not want to be identified because of his current job) has written to me this morning to say that journalists don’t all fully understand how the designation process works. He says:

The EC’s guidance on designation says that where there’s more than one campaign that “adequately” represents those campaigning for a referendum outcome, it has to designate the campaign that represents those campaigning for the outcome “to the greatest extent”. That test is in the legislation (Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000) so the EC doesn’t have any discretion to over-ride it - and if it tried, it would be judicially reviewed and lose.

(This in turn would probably lead to the referendum being postponed, because it would have to re-take the designation decision and there wouldn’t be time for the winner to use the free mailing etc before 23 June).

So the EC will have to look very carefully at what the campaigns can show about how broad a church they are.

The weekend means Vote Leave have some heavier hitters than before, but they’re all essentially from the same place - the relatively non-loony end of the Conservatives (plus the Ukip MP Douglas Carswell).

And although the GO rally looked ludicrous, it underlined that they have a broader base of support from high-profile politicians at the moment (albeit all eccentrics). As well as Galloway and UKIP they have Kate Hoey and the old-style Tory Eurosceptics.

The thing that’s probably really worrying Vote Leave is that they’ve lost Hoey and co. At the moment their main “Labour” affiliate seems to be John Mills, who’s a donor not a politician. [Vote Leave chief executive] Matthew Elliott’s strategy for getting the designation would have relied heavily on having “Labour Leave” signed up to Vote Leave, but at the moment the Labour campaign it seems to be in limbo, which is a major problem for him. He’s also lost Jenny Jones from the Greens and Ruth Lea from the amusingly-named Economists for Britain, both more minor losses but still symptoms of things going wrong somewhere.

George Galloway addressing a Grassroots Out rally in London on Friday
George Galloway addressing a Grassroots Out rally in London on Friday Photograph: Ben Pruchnie/Getty Images

Does having Boris Johnson on board increase the chances of the Out camp winning the EU referendum (as the currency markets seem to think)? Yes, according to Prof John Curtice, the psephologist. This is what he told the Today programme.

As always in politics personalities matter because they are the vehicles for the communication of messages. I’m not sure at the end of the day many people in the referendum are going to vote on the basis of whether they like David Cameron or Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage or Philip Hammond as individuals. But the point is that they are the people who above all will be trying to persuade us which way to vote. And the effectiveness with which they do so will matter.

Curtice said that personalities were important in the Scottish independence referendum.

There is no doubt that one of the advantages that the Yes campaign had in Scotland was that it was led by Alex Salmond, a very charismatic figure, supported by Nicola Sturgeon, another charismatic figure.

Curtice said that, although Yes lost the referendum in Scotland, arguably they won the campaign, because when it started only 37% of Scots were in favour of independence, but by polling day that was up to 45%.

At least in part that probably is down to the fact that the SNP did have effective communicators.

These Ipsos MORI polling figures show confirm that Johnson could be an influential figure in the campaign.

Ipsos MORI polling figures
Ipsos MORI polling figures

In his Today interview Curtice was also asked who would win the EU referendum. At first he dodged the question.

The answer to that is that we don’t know. The opinion polls are giving us two different messages. One set are saying it’s even stevens. The other say remain are well ahead. But in any event Europe is an issue on which we have changed our mind quite radically during the course of the last 40 years and maybe we will do so again during the course of the next four months.

But, when pressed, he said this.

On balance Remain start this campaign as favourites but I would not yet want to put too much money on assuming that they are going to win.

John Curtice
John Curtice Photograph: Frank Baron for the Guardian

Yesterday Iain Duncan Smith, the work and pensions secretary who is campaigning for Britain to leave the EU, suggested that staying in could make Britain more vulnerable to a Paris-style terror attack.

In his Today programme interview this morning Michael Fallon, the defence secretary who is in favour of staying in the EU, rejected the claim that free movement within the EU was undermining security. He told the programme:

At the moment our security, our defence, rests on Nato, not on the EU. But the EU adds to that security. I don’t know any member of Nato that wants us to leave the EU because the EU can do things that Nato cannot.

For example we were able to persuade the rest of Europe to apply sanctions against Russia after the annexation of the Crimea and its interference in Ukraine ...

It is through the EU you exchange criminal records and passenger information and work together as counter-terrorism.

Sean O’Neill, a Times journalist who often writes about security issues, offered a blunter response to Duncan Smith on Twitter.

Michael Fallon
Michael Fallon Photograph: Andy Rain/EPA

Boris Johnson will be in the Commons this afternoon for David Cameron’s statement on his EU renegotiation, and he will try to ask a question, the Press Association reports.

This is from the Press Association on the fall in the value of sterling.

The value of the pound has plunged to a three-week low against the dollar, as the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union intensified.

Sterling was down 1.7% - or more than two cents - following a weekend which saw London mayor Boris Johnson, five cabinet ministers and a large swathe of Conservative backbenchers declare their support for Brexit.

The pound also dropped to a two-year low against the yen and fell slightly against the euro.

Currency markets were digesting the EU reform package secured by David Cameron ahead of an In/Out referendum on June 23.

Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, said the forthcoming EU referendum was adding to the many concerns “troubling” investors, which included the impact of an economic slowdown in China.

After Nicola Sturgeon warned on Andrew Marr that a no vote would “almost certainly” trigger demands for a second Scottish independence vote, Scottish Labour hits back, as the Venn diagram of referenda past and future becomes ever more overlapping.

In a speech in Brussels later today, Ian Murray, shadow Scottish secretary and the last remaining Labour MP in Scotland, will pledge to make “a distinctly Labour case for why Scots should vote to remain in the EU”.

“Labour supporters in Scotland and across the UK will be crucial to winning this referendum. With the Tories hopelessly divided and the SNP tying themselves in knots about why we should share sovereignty with our neighbours across the Channel, but not across the Tweed, it will fall to the Labour Party to make the case for why being a part of Europe is best for working people the length and breadth of our country.”

Here are two more charts showing what has been happening to sterling.

Sterling falls in value following Boris Johnson's decision to back Brexit

As my colleague Graeme Wearden reports on his business blog, the pound is falling following the news that Boris Johnson will campaign for Brexit (making a vote to leave the EU more likely than it was, although still not probable). Graeme writes.

Sterling is plumbing new depths, as Boris Johnson’s decision to defy David Cameron continues to reverberate around the trading floors.

The pound has now dropped to $1.416 against the US dollar, a fall of 1.7% or 2.5 cents.

This chart shows how sterling took an immediate dive last night when trading began in Asia, and then weakened further once European traders got to their desks:

Pound v Dollar since Friday afternoon
Pound v Dollar since Friday afternoon Photograph: Guardian

There is more on his live blog here.

David Cameron has been making the case for Britain to remain in the EU for almost three days now, ever since the EU summit approved his renegotiation deal on Friday night, but today he will face what is often the most challenging audience for any politician - the House of Commons. He won’t worry too much about what Labour MPs have to say, because most of them support his campaign for Britain to remain in the EU, but many Conservative MPs will oppose him passionately and this afternoon we will witness the full extent of the feuding.

Three weeks ago, when he delivered his last EU statement to MPs, Cameron had a relatively easy ride. But since then the dynamics have shifted, not least because of Boris Johnson’s dramatic decision come out in favour of leaving the EU. As Gary Gibbon wrote in a good blog on this last night, “the centre of gravity in the Tory Party isn’t quite where [Cameron] thought it was and residual deference isn’t as strong as he might’ve guessed.”

Here are the latest overnight/morning developments.

  • Stanley Johnson, Boris’s father, has said it is a “travesty” to say his son his backing Brexit to increase his chances of becoming prime minister. This is what he told the Today programme:

I think he has done a really well-thought-out move. When I say move, it is a move in the sense it represents his deep conviction that at this moment this is what he needed to do. Honestly, I think to say this is a careerist sort of move would be a total travesty. I cannot think of any more career-ending move than to do what he did yesterday, in the sense that he is leaving the mayoralty in May. If he wanted to get a nice job in the cabinet on May 8 this is not the way to do it.

You can decide for yourself whether you think Johnson Snr’s argument is convincing, although the line about Boris’s “deep conviction that at this moment this is what he needed to do” may be a bit of a giveaway. There was another telling answer at the end of the interview when Johnson was asked if in a year’s time people would be saying this was the moment his son put himself on course to become prime minister. Johnson replied: “Who can say?” If he really believed his son’s latest move was career-ending, he would have said no. Instead his reply sounded a bit more like “Hope so”.

  • The pound is falling in value, with analysts saying this is a response to Johnson’s declaration. My colleague Graeme Wearden has more details on his business live blog.
  • John Whittingdale, the culture secretary who is campaigning for Britain to leave the EU, has bet £1,000 that Cameron will stay as prime minister if Britain votes for Brexit. He told ITV’s Good Morning Britain:

If we win the campaign, then I am confident the prime minister will continue in office.

Piers Morgan, the presenter, refused to believe this and challenged him to a bet. Eventually Whittingdale accepted.

  • Michael Fallon, the defence secretary who is in favour of staying in the EU, has told the Today programme that he was not suprised by Johnson’s decision to back Brexit.
  • Lord Lawson, chair of the Vote Leave campaign, has welcomed Johnson’s backing. He told the Today programme:

I am delighted that he has come out for leaving the EU ... He is a superb campaigner and he is a great asset to the cause.

The most important characteristic of any democracy is that it should be possible for voters to evict those who act in their name. The EU fails on that test ...

The deal on the table does not go far enough. And given that even in the face of the UK voting to leave, the EU is unwilling to entertain meaningful reform, it is unlikely we will see anything more in the years to come. So I believe we would be better off out of the EU, and I will be voting to leave.

  • The Financial Times has said the bosses of around half of Britain’s 100 biggest companies are preparing to back Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the EU. The chairmen and chief executives from around 50 FTSE companies are prepared to sign a letter in support of Cameron’s renegotiation package, the FT says. Supporters are said to include senior figures from Shell, BAE Systems, BT and Rio Tinto.

Here is the timetable for the day.

11am: Number 10 lobby briefing.

1pm: Emily Thornberry, the shadow defence secretary, gives a speech to the Royal United Services Institute.

3.30pm: David Cameron gives his statement to MPs on the EU referendum.

I will mostly be focusing on Europe today, but I will covering other breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I will post a summary at lunchtime and another after Cameron’s statement.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time. Alternatively you could post a question to me on Twitter.

If you think there are any voices that I’m leaving out, particularly political figures or organisations giving alternative views of the stories I’m covering, do please flag them up below the line (include “Andrew” in the post). I can’t promise to include everything, but I do try to be open to as wide a range of perspectives as possible.

Updated

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