I didn't see the piece transport expert Christian Wolmar wrote for the final edition of yesterday's Standard and cannot locate it online today*, but I know the gist of it was that, given the huge pressure on TfL's finances, a further rise in public transport fares is unavoidable. Soundings I've taken from the GLA family firmament this morning indicate that Christian's analysis was "just right".
Oh dear. My reading of Mayor Johnson's sidestepping of the fares issue at yesterday's MQT was that a further hike could not be assumed. Other hacks, though, thought there were hints to the contrary. It now looks to me as if they were correct.
If so, it's tempting to interpet the dead bat language used by Boris when Transport Committee chair Caroline Pidgeon pressed him on the issue as a rehearsal for his forthcoming defence of a decision that would break with the "Retail-Prince-Index-plus-one-percent" assumption that informs TfL's business planning.
As Pidgeon pointed out, the RPI for July - the monthly level often taken as a guide to fares - showed a fall. Dare we assume, she asked, that fares will therefore fall too? Boris said:
"We are going to have a fares package which will ensure that Londoners' transport fares remain comparable and competitive by comparison with other major cities."
Pidgeon then asked him why he was delaying revealing what sounded like good news. "Why shouldn't I save up the good news?" replied The Blond, flirtatiously.
Maybe there will be some good news for some passengers. But RPI-plus-one is an accounting projection not a commandment, as Boris's predeccessor showed. It looks more and more as though for fares in general, the only way is up.
Update, 11:40 I've found it.
