Boris Johnson has launched a charm offensive with expelled Tories, hardline Brexiteers and Labour MPs in a bid to get his Brexit deal passed at a special Commons sitting on Saturday.
But his plans were thrown into disarray after a cross-party bid led by expelled Tory Sir Oliver Letwin sought to delay approving the deal until the legislation has passed.
Tory MP John Baron caused alarm by claiming he is “inclined” to vote for the deal because the UK could still leave on no-deal basis at the end of the transition period in December 2020.
Good morning and welcome to The Independent’s live coverage of events at Westminster and Brussels.
Up to 15 Tory rebels ready to back Brexit referendum
Exiled Tory MPs kicked out of the party by Boris Johnson are ready to deliver a second Brexit referendum if his deal is defeated on Saturday.
Supporters of a Final Say vote are confident they now have the numbers, believing up to 15 of the sacked Conservatives will join them – but only after the deal has gone down.
One former Tory, now sitting as an Independent MP, told The Independent: “It’s vital to get the sequence right and not to move too soon.”
Our deputy political editor Rob Merrick has all the details.
Exiled Tory MPs will help deliver new Brexit referendum if Johnson’s deal is defeated, supporters suggest
Exiled Tory MPs kicked out of the party by Boris Johnson are ready to deliver a fresh Brexit referendum if his deal is defeated on Saturday, supporters of a public vote believe.Boris Johnson ‘love bombing’ MPs to get deal through Commons
Can Boris Johnson get the numbers in the Commons for his deal? The prime minister has divvied up the charm offensive with Tory moderates and Labour rebels in his search for a majority.
The 21 Tory rebels stripped of the whip are being “love bombed” by senior ministers, according to The Times. The government is said to be confident that between 15 and 17 of them month will back the deal.
It looks as though most of the 28 Tory “Spartans” in the ERG can be won over. Stalwart Andrew Bridgen offered an olfactory endorsement: “It looks like Brexit. It smells like Brexit. It is Brexit.”
Steve Baker, Mark Francois and Peter Bone have all made encouraging noises about holding their noses and backing it.
Mark Spencer, the chief whip, is said to be working on the Labour MPs. There are various estimates are flying around this morning about how many Labour MPs will switch.
This handy chart by analysts at the Cicero Group suggests somewhere between 10 and 15 Labour MPs would probably be enough to get the deal over the line.
John McDonnell warns of ‘consequences’ for Labour MPs
Labour’s John McDonnell said there would be “consequences” for MPs in his party who vote for Boris Johnson’s deal – but would not say whether that included having the whip removed and effectively expel them from standing again for the party.
“This is a three-line whip and the chief whip, in the normal way, will determine the consequences for anyone who doesn’t vote for it,” the shadow chancellor told the Today programme.
Asked what they might be, he replied: “I’m not the chief whip thank goodness; I've got enough on my plate.”
McDonnell said he did not think Labour MPs would go through the government lobby on Saturday once they studied the detail of the deal.
“I don’t believe there are Labour MPs out there who will not think through the detail of this deal and then when they see the impact, particularly environmental, consumers' and workers’ rights, will vote for it,” said Jeremy Corbyn’s right-hand man.
“This is up to the chief whip – I believe in the powers of persuasion. I believe we can persuade people and make sure, as they did over Theresa May’s deal, vote against it because this deal is worse than Theresa May’s. It is a sell-out.”
Dominic Raab calls Brexit deal a ‘win, win, win’
Foreign secretary Dominic Raab said he thinks the deal is a “win, win, win” for the UK because “we take back control of our laws, our borders, our money”.
He added that “it’s a cracking deal for Northern Ireland” because “not only are they staying part of the UK customs territory but they’ve got friction-less access to the single market”.
“We’ve got a real opportunity now to get Brexit delivered faithful to the referendum, move on as a Government, and I think as a country, and lift the clouds of Brexit,” he said.
Asked whether they had given up trying to persuade the DUP over the deal, he said they had “certainly not given up” on their DUP “friends” but the responsibility was on “setting up the deal and to argue for its benefits and its merits in relation to Northern Ireland”.
That “cracking deal for Northern Ireland” remark will get a lot of flak. As our deputy political editor Rob Merrick points out, being in the single market is what a lot of people have been arguing for.
DUP opposition to deal ‘solid as rock of Gibraltar’
Dominic Raab says the government hasn’t given up on persuading the DUP. But the DUP has very much given up on the deal.
The DUP’s Brexit spokesman Sammy Wilson said the party was “as solid as the rock of Gibraltar” against it.
Asked by the Repubblica newspaper whether the party could abstain on Saturday’s vote, Wilson said: “Oh no, we are going to vote against it.”
Asked why the party won’t be backing the deal, Wilson told LBC this morning: “We want to leave on the same basis as the rest of the UK. That’s what the PM promised.”
Jo Maugham leads case against deal at Court of Session
An intriguing development in Edinburgh to watch out for today.
Anti-Brexit campaigner Jo Maugham is leading a new legal effort to thwart Boris Johnson’s deal in Scotland’s Court of Session, filing a petition arguing the agreement would be in violation of existing legislation preventing Northern Ireland forming a distinct customs territory.
The case is set to be heard this morning.
Nicola Sturgeon says Labour ‘happy’ to see Brexit happen
Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon has said she suspects Labour would be “happy” to see Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal go through.
“Hope I’m wrong but I have a real suspicion that Labour would be quite happy to see this deal go through.”
There were reports Labour MPs would not lose the whip if they vote for the deal on Saturday. John McDonnell said this morning it would be up to the party’s chief whip to work out the punishment, but there would be “consequences”.
EU chiefs dodge questions about Brexit extension
There was a lot of interest in Jean-Claude Juncker’s remarks about an extension yesterday. He said there could be no more “prolongation”, but as many pointed out – it would not be up to him to grant and extension or not if the deal fails in the Commons.
What has been said about it today in Brussels today?
Charles Michel, the Belgian prime minister and incoming president of the European Council, batted away questions about the Benn Act and a possible extension request.
“It’s not my intention to imagine that the deal would not pass in parliament and that’s why I will be clear we took yesterday an important decision, and now it’s the responsibility of the parliament in the UK but also the European parliament to give their opinions.”
Ursula Von der Leyen, incoming European Commission president, said: “For us it is important that we have a deal and now it's the British parliament that has to take a decision and I think it's the respect for the British parliament that for us makes clear that we will not comment on the outcome beforehand. I think we should give us the time to listen to the British parliament.”
All you need to know for People’s Vote march
Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to march through London on Saturday for a major demonstration calling for a Final Say referendum on Brexit.
Organised by the People’s Vote campaign and supported by The Independent, the march will take place just two weeks before the UK is scheduled to leave the EU.
Hundreds of thousands to demand fresh Brexit vote at major rally in London
Hundreds of thousands to demand fresh Brexit vote at major London rally on 19 OctoberGeoffrey Cox publishes legal statement on Brexit deal
Attorney general Geoffrey Cox has published a legal statement on the mechanism that replaces the backstop in the Boris Johnson’s new Brexit deal.
It concludes by saying there are “no grounds” for thinking the agreement would trap any part of the UK in EU arrangements because of “the right of members of the Northern Ireland legislative assembly to withhold consent to the continued application of those provisions”.
You can read it here.
Letwin amendment seeks to uphold Benn Act
Tory rebel Sir Oliver Letwin has filed a crucial amendment to the Brexit deal vote in the Commons on Saturday.
It would allow sceptical Tory MPs to vote for the deal but retains the need for the government to abide by the Benn Act and ask for an extension.
A reminder: MPs have backed off from trying to attach a second referendum vote to the deal on Saturday – and seem set to wait and see if the deal fails before launching a bid at a Final Say public vote next week.
Jon Lansman calls for Labour rebels to be deselected
Momentum founder Jon Lansman has called for Labour rebels who vote for Boris Johnson’s deal to be deselected ahead of the next election.
“Labour MPs cannot and must not vote for it. If they do, the NEC [National Executive Committee] will have no choice but to be replace them with a new, socialist Labour candidate at the next election.”
John McDonnell earlier warned there would be “consequences” for MPs in his party who vote for Boris Johnson’s deal – but would not say whether that included having the whip removed and being effectively expelled.
All the details here.
Momentum founder calls for Labour MPs who back Boris Johnson's Brexit deal to be deselected
'Labour MPs cannot and must not vote for it'Labour MP Ronnie Campbell will back deal - how many others?
In case you missed it, Labour MP Ronnie Campbell told Newsnight he would vote for Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.
John McDonnell said earlier this morning he would “have a word with Ronnie” in an effort to twist his arm and get him to switch back.
Campbell was not one of the five Labour MPs who voted for Theresa May’s deal (at the third time of asking).
Those were: John Mann, Caroline Flint, Jim Fitzpatrick, Kevin Barron and Rosie Cooper.
So how many more Labour MPs can the government persuade?
According to Sky News, Ian Austin, John Woodcock, Kelvin Hopkins and Frank Field are also “believed to be close to backing a deal”.
And there’s Stephen Kinnock, who has spoken about his desire to see a deal done, but also talked about the need for a deal to protect workers’ rights.
John Mann says ‘over nine’ fellow Labour MPs will back deal
Having just speculated that as many as 10 or 11 Labour MPs could vote for the deal, we have an interesting prediction just in.
Labour MP John Mann said he will vote for Boris Johnson's Brexit deal and expects “over nine” of his fellow Labour MPs to follow suit, he said on Friday.
“I will be voting in favour of it, it’s a deal that’s been agreed with the European Union, it's a two side deal and that satisfies me,” Mann told Irish national broadcaster RTE.
Asked how many Labour MPs would also support Johnson's deal, he said: “More than nine ... I don’t know how many because there is different pressures at play but it will be in double figures.”
Boris Johnson will summon cabinet at 4pm
Boris Johnson is summoning his cabinet at 4pm to give its official backing to his Brexit deal – although, given there appears to be no opposition, this is not a significant moment, writes Rob Merrick.
The more important focus will be on the prime minister and his aides ringing around wavering MPs who could, just, give him a majority in the showdown Commons votes tomorrow.
However, there are not expected to be any further conversations with the DUP – after it savaged the agreement as a betrayal and vowed to vote against it.
If – and it’s a big if – the vote is won, the full withdrawal agreement bill that must follow could be published as early as Monday, with No 10 still insisting it can be raced through parliament in time for a 31 October exit.
Some MPs and experts believe it could take several weeks to wade through a blizzard of expected amendments, requiring an extension even if MPs approve the initial motion tomorrow.
Could parliament still vote for a second referendum?
Enough speculation, for the time being, about how many MPs will back Boris Johnson’s deal. What about the number ready to back a second referendum?
Supporters of a Final Say vote are confident they now have enough support in the Commons, believing up to 15 of the sacked Conservatives will join them – but only after the deal has gone down on Saturday.
Our chief political commentator John Rentoul has taken a look at how the numbers could stack up for another public vote.
Analysis: Could parliament vote for a referendum on Boris Johnson’s deal?
As MPs prepare to have their say on the prime minister’s new deal, parliament still may not make up its mindERG boss Steve Baker staying quiet for now
Steve Baker, the chairman of the European Research Group (ERG), is not yet telling anyone how many of “his” group will vote for Boris Johnson’s deal.
Baker – the self-described “Brexit hardman” – has previously insisted ERG members are independent thinkers, so he can’t tell them how to vote.
Although he is one of the 28 “Spartans” who voted against Theresa May’s deal three times, there is speculation most of the Spartans will back the deal. Baker, Mark Francois and Peter Bone have all made encouraging noises.
New poll shows shows 41% of public want MPs to back Brexit deal
According to a snap poll by YouGov, 41% of the general public want MPs to pass Boris Johnson's Brexit deal during Saturday's sitting of the Commons - opposed to 24% who want MPs to reject the agreement.
Jess Phillips reminds Labour MPs PM has been ‘racist’
If there are still wavering Labour MPs who have not made up their minds whether to back the deal, Jess Phillips has reminded them about Boris Johnson’s history.
