Booed in Scotland. Confronted by farmers in Wales. Chided over the future of the union in Northern Ireland. Hit by damaging leaks and warned about the risk of recession by the Bank of England, all amid a tumbling pound.
The turbulence that has struck Boris Johnson’s administration was more reminiscent of an ageing government fighting for survival than one embarking on its first seven days in office. Yet such is the perpetual turmoil of British politics amid the Brexit impasse that many in Westminster regarded the week’s events as a gentle opening to an inevitable crisis.
Figures in Johnson’s team do not pretend his early visits to the four corners of the union were easy. His aides, who admit to an “intense” transition to life in Downing St, also insist there is one vital positive at the end of his UK tour: “It’s over.”
Their sense of relief is understandable. Johnson’s flurry of activity in the hostile territories of Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast saw him repeatedly confronted over his willingness to back a no-deal Brexit. Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, described him as “dangerous”. In Wales, having kept both the media and public at a safe distance, he was accused of “playing Russian roulette” with farmers’ livelihoods. By the time he reached Belfast, the head of the SDLP, Nichola Mallon, accused him of having “little understanding of the complexities and fragility of relationships in Northern Ireland”.
Close observers said his itinerary was significant not just in terms of where he chose to go but also the places he chose to avoid. “They know very well that what they are asking for from the EU [in terms of a new Brexit deal], the EU is not going to give,” said one veteran of Theresa May’s team. “That is why they are not going to EU capitals. It would be visible activity to no useful end. But whenever you take on the job, you need quickly to be able to say you have visited the four nations of the union.”
By Friday morning, Johnson’s travails had been compounded by losing the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection and further reducing his wafer-thin working majority. Yet even some of the new government’s fiercest critics believe that, while Johnson’s opening days have been far from flawless, he has been spared more serious political fallout by opinion polls appearing to show a “Boris bounce”, and a strange hiatus that has descended on Westminster just as he has taken office.
“It is a most peculiar atmosphere,” said one senior Tory concerned about Johnson’s Brexit plans. “So many people are on holiday. They are literally in Spain or Portugal or France. They can follow all of this on their iPads, but Boris has been given pretty free rein.”
Westminster is always eerily quiet as its summer recess starts, but this year’s lull has provided a bizarre contrast to the feverish activity that ended May’s reign and the inevitable frenzy set to unfold when MPs return in September, with a no-deal Brexit just weeks away. In truth, Tory MPs tracking his progress from the beach say that, for all the criticism Johnson received on his outings last week, the real danger signs are not so much lurking below the surface as hiding in plain sight.
Several Tory MPs pointed to a series of warning lights that were already flashing. First, some in the European Research Group of hardline Brexiters have signalled that they would vote down any Brexit deal, even if it did not contain the Irish backstop provision that they believe keeps Britain tethered to the EU. One May ally said this was a sign they would turn on Johnson, too. “They are not in the mood to compromise,” they said. “There was a way of running his leadership campaign without relying on them, giving him more freedom. But he chose not to do that.”
On the other wing, Tory Phillip Lee has signalled he is considering joining the Lib Dems and that others are countenancing a similar move – eliminating Johnson’s working majority. Meanwhile, the forces of no-deal resistance are getting organised. Oliver Letwin, the former cabinet minister who has masterminded previous attempts to block a no-deal, was one of the few figures left in Westminster last week. And there have already been a series of leaks about the impact of a no-deal Brexit.
Then there is the perceived instability of Johnson’s new team. Some insiders regard the new discipline in government installed by Dominic Cummings, the Vote Leave strategy chief now calling the shots in No 10, as uneasy. “Ministers are like their equivalents in the Chinese people’s republic – they are there to deliver policy already worked out by the politburo,” said one Tory. “The politburo is Dominic Cummings and his special advisers. They are the ones that have all of the ideas.”
Some ministers are already deemed to have a limited lifespan. “I do wonder what the hell [pro-Remain cabinet ministers] Robert Buckland, Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan are doing in this regime,” said one Tory preparing to block no-deal. “They have tried to tell me it’s a bit like the early days of Trump. ‘We are there to control him’. I see it far more like 1945-46. The Soviets installed communist regimes in Poland and Czechoslovakia, but needed to show some democratic representation in the government. These people survived for a couple of years before being denounced and then shot. You do wonder if this is going to happen to them.”
Meanwhile, diplomats in Europe have also been monitoring the new regime with a mixture of concern and disbelief. On Thursday, during talks with EU officials, Johnson’s new negotiator David Frost, himself a former ambassador, delivered the message that only a Brexit deal without the Irish backstop would be acceptable. He was told in no uncertain terms that such an outcome wasn’t possible – and that in the event of a no-deal Brexit there would be no “mini-deals” making life easier from Britain in the immediate aftermath.
“They find Frost puzzling on that,” said one person familiar with the talks. “He knows how the EU negotiates with third countries and must understand how the game would work in practice if we went there … The UK strategy seemed obviously mad and self-defeating. And that Frost appeared to be an ideologue, but was obviously not calling the shots in No 10.”
The EU officials were clear about the difficult detail that will soon become a major part of the Brexit debate as a no-deal outcome looms. Once it has crashed out, Frost was told, Britain will have to bid for an article 218 negotiation – the legal basis on which the EU negotiates agreements with third countries that sees strict conditions placed on the scope and terms of talks.
As one Brussels insider put it: “Going all the way out, and then having to bid for an article 218 negotiation puts the UK in an exceptionally weak negotiating position … Back to money and the backstop.” As they checked out for their stint on the beach, one diplomat had clear advice to all those involved in the battle ahead: “Have a great summer and prepare for an exceptionally stormy autumn.”
Johnson finished his turbulent week with a visit to the Derbyshire town of Whaley Bridge, where residents were forced to flee their homes amid fears that the walls of a reservoir could collapse. Both he and his new team already know that there are similar structural weaknesses in his new premiership. While the waters in Westminster may be still for now, the political dam could be ready to burst before the summer is out.
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