The author of “Convergence or Conflict in the Taiwan Strait,” J. Michael Cole, has been a journalist based in Taiwan for over a decade. A specialist in military and security affairs, he has also covered social movements, like the Sunflower Movement in 2014, and over the years Cole has become one of Taiwan’s foremost observers.
Cole’s recent book is an important new analysis of Taiwan and its relations with China and the world. Written in sixteen relatively short chapters, the book begins by noting that Taiwan’s “political footprint” (p. 7) is much smaller than it should be for a nation that has democratized and which has a globalized economy. Cole blames part of this on the authoritarian regime of Chiang Kai-shek (蔣中正) and Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國), but he also notes that Taiwan has become less “newsworthy” as it has peacefully democratized. Many foreign media have left Taiwan, thus increasing international ignorance.
In Chapter 2, Cole compares the common images of two former presidents, Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), as a “troublemaker” and a “peacemaker,” respectively. For Cole, such images “rested on myths and false assumptions that can gain traction only if the intended audience suspends disbelief or is too distracted to pay attention to the details of history” (p. 26). Cole makes clear that Ma did not bring peace to Taiwan and, furthermore, his ill-conceived policies led to substantial unrest on Taiwan and the ultimate failure of the Ma’s Kuomintang (KMT) in the local elections of November 2014 and the presidential and legislative elections of January 2016. Through this process, Beijing’s demands continued and it became clear that Ma “could not deliver the kind of agreement” (p. 33) which would satisfy China.
In Chapter 5, Cole clearly delineates how China constantly tries to subvert Taiwan’s democracy through its multi-faceted United Front work, conventional espionage, pressure on Taiwan’s big business, the media, local proxies, organized crime and military coercion. In Hong Kong, where China had promised “one country, two systems,” China moves to control all aspects of politics and society and even prohibits many Taiwanese from entering Hong Kong.
In Chapter 7, Cole discusses the two years of activism which preceded the Sunflowers as well as the 2014 Sunflower Movement itself. He notes that both the KMT and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) were not ready for either the earlier activism or the Sunflowers. For Cole, these civil movements transcended Taiwan’s earlier ethnic divisions, gave youth a new and important status within Taiwan, and led to the KMT’s disastrous losses in the 2014 and 2016 elections.
In Chapter 8, Cole brings to the fore one of his key contributions — an analysis of how nationalism in China differs from Taiwan’s nationalism. Cole quite correctly argues that Chinese nationalism is “civilizational” in that it relies on “bloodlines” and Confucian traditions. It has no borders, but it does have “a deep sense of victimhood that has in turn infused [its] nationalism with paranoia and xenophobia” (p. 126). Taiwan’s nationalism, on the other hand, is based on the “national community” in contemporary Taiwan and “has none of the emphasis on extraterritoriality and exceptionalism” (p. 127) that features in Chinese nationalism. For Cole, the conflict between China and Taiwan is not an unfinished civil war, but “a bona fide clash of two [very different] nationalisms” (p. 12, original emphasis).
In Chapter 9, Cole points out that even Taiwanese merchants in China and “deep blue” academics in Taiwan can not accept China’s demands that Taiwan unify with it on the basis of “one nation, two systems.” In Chapter 10, he argues that “Beijing is stuck” (p. 150) and that nothing it can offer will have any appeal to Taiwan’s populace. In addition, “continued conflict in the Taiwan Strait is beneficial” (p. 155) to China’s military as it seeks continually growing budgets and advanced weaponry.
Chapter 11 argues that China frames its “reality” to the outside world by maintaining that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China and that “reunification” is inevitable. Despite such beliefs entering some of Western academia, Cole shows they have no truth. He reasons clearly that China has continued to arm even during the so-called period of peace when Ma was Taiwan’s president. Cole quite properly notes that “amphibious assaults are among the most difficult of all military operations” (p. 169), and this reviewer was quite surprised to read in the military-security literature how difficult such an invasion of Taiwan would be. Cole does note, however, that Taiwan’s military “must therefore repair and modernize its image… [and become] a fighting force for Taiwan.” (p. 173, original emphasis).
In Chapter 14, Cole argues that Taiwan is the last free environment for Chinese-language information, but he emphasizes that Taiwan does not have a role in changing China since Taiwan and China are two separate entities, each on its own course. In Chapter 15, Cole makes clear that statements arguing Taiwan should be traded to China for “peace” are naïve, ignorant and immoral. The West cannot trade the freedom of 23.5 million people — about the population of Australia — for any hopes that China will be kind to Taiwan. Hong Kong clearly demonstrates that such ideas are daft.
In his concluding chapter, Cole calls for Taiwan to implement three strategies — counterpropaganda, consolidation and deterrence. Counterpropaganda is against both Chinese propaganda and the silly, naïve ideas of certain Western scholars. Consolidation means continuation in improving Taiwan’s society, democracy and political system. Deterrence includes enhancing Taiwan’s military force, but also a positive propaganda campaign to the Western democratic nations. Such strategies should make it possible for “the Taiwanese… [to] always have a choice” (p. 206, original emphasis).
“Convergence or Conflict in the Taiwan Strait” is an informative and lively book on the issues facing Taiwan today, and provides a good understanding for leaders of both Taiwan and the world’s democratic nations.
Editor: Olivia Yang
