Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is on course to win a stunning majority in the next general election, according to a new bombshell poll by Electoral Calculus. The results mark the first time the insurgent party has been projected to secure enough seats to form a majority government in Westminster.
The poll places Reform UK at 30% of the national vote — enough, analysts say, to deliver 362 MPs and a commanding 74-seat majority in the House of Commons. It is a remarkable surge for a party that currently holds just five seats.
“This is the first time that the polls have indicated that Reform could form a government on its own,” Electoral Calculus noted. “If there were a general election tomorrow (and there will not be), then Reform could expect to have an outright majority in the House of Commons and Nigel Farage would be Prime Minister.”
Labour trails in second place with 23% of the vote, a figure that would grant Sir Keir Starmer’s party just 136 seats — a significant drop from current expectations. The Liberal Democrats, led by Sir Ed Davey, are polling at 14% and projected to win 62 seats, while the Scottish National Party (SNP) would secure 38 MPs on just 3% of the vote.
The most dramatic fall, however, is forecast for the Conservative Party, now led by Kemi Badenoch. Once the dominant force in British politics, the Tories are polling at a mere 18%, which would leave them with just 22 seats, making them the fifth-largest party in Parliament, behind the Liberal Democrats and SNP.
“After their local council success on May 1, Reform has seen a positive bounce in the polls,” the polling organisation said. “They are now on 30% support, which is 7% ahead of Labour and 12% ahead of the Conservatives.”
Reform UK’s rise follows strong showings in recent local elections and increased national visibility, bolstered by Farage’s outspoken campaigning and populist messaging. The party’s focus on immigration, cost of living, and political reform appears to have resonated with disillusioned voters across traditional party lines.
While many political commentators remain sceptical about whether these figures would hold up in an actual general election, the poll underscores the seismic shifts currently underway in British politics — and the possibility of Farage becoming the country’s next Prime Minister.
