The Bureau of Meteorology's winter outlook is here and it is not great news for those hoping for a break from the wet weather.
La Niña is stubbornly hanging around and it looks like a negative Indian Ocean Dipole is on the way, so a wetter than average winter is expected for much of the country.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, June-to-August rainfall is very likely to be above median for much of the country.
Eastern and central regions are likely to be particularly soggy, with a greater-than-80 per cent chance of exceeding median rainfall.
That's two-to-three times more likely than usual.
But it is not expected to be wet everywhere.
There is a less-than-40 per cent chance of much of the South West Land Division in Western Australia and western Tasmania exceeding median rainfall.
Minimum temperatures are likely to be above median for most of the country but, unusually, it is looking like maximum temperatures could be below average for central Australia from coast to coast.
Why so wet?
Weather bureau long term forecasting head Andrew Watkins said a number of factors were influencing the outlook.
He said the incoming wet weather was primarily driven by an emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole.
He said a negative Indian Ocean Dipole happened when there were warm waters to the north west of Australia which aided evaporation and meant there wass plenty of moisture available.
He said the moisture could then be tapped into by north-west cloud bands and dragged across from the north-west to the south and east.
A lingering La Nina climate pattern is also adding to the wet mix.
"Certainly the La Nina is persisting longer than we originally thought," Mr Watkins said.
But he believed the La Nina would fade away over winter.
"There is some chance that it could come back later, but we are expecting it to dip below the thresholds that we normally have for declaring La Nina during the winter," he said.
Eastern Australia already swamped
For Emma Ayliffe, consultant and director of Summit Ag Agricultural Consultancy, based at Lake Cargelligo, central NSW, it is getting to the point where more rain is not welcome. Hard to believe in a region in the grip of drought a few years ago.
"At home on our farm, we've had our annual rainfall already for the year, which is unreal how wet it is," she said.
"You think back to 2017-18. We were in record droughts, feeding livestock and questioning whether we even bother to keep sowing crops.
"Then this year we've got feed for livestock coming out of our ears and got plenty of potential in front of us.
"We'd love to get a crop in but just physically can't get on our country to do it."
At this point the prospect of more rain may not be great news for Ms Ayliffe but she is pragmatic.
"As the old saying goes, there's money in mud. So I'd rather be looking at it than for it," she said.
Others could still do with a drink
There are plenty still looking out for rain this year.
Darwin may have managed to scrape near average wet season rainfall, thanks to falls late last year, but parts of the Northern Territory's Top End are well behind on rainfall this year.
Despite the convincingly blue map, with the dry season ahead even above average rainfall would likely mean little rainfall for the tropics in the months to come.
And cropping regions in south-eastern South Australia and south-west Western Australia are also behind their average rainfall with the crucial wet season ahead.
But despite the dry start, Perth's dam levels are still up compared to this time last year, thanks to a wet 2021.
The west has been transitioning away from relying on rain for drinking water for years.
"While any rainfall is welcome, the long-term rainfall trend across southern WA shows a pattern of decline, accelerated by the effects of climate change," said WA Water Corporation spokesperson Dean Stacey.
"Dams still have an important role to play in collecting available streamflow, however, they're now used primarily as reservoirs to store desalinated water and groundwater, ready for when we need it most," he said.
Which is great for the city, but little help to those who rely on the rain to grow crops.
So, disappointingly, this outlook suggests those already sodden are expecting more while many of those looking for rain are more likely to miss out this winter.
