Bolivia was plunged into a deepening political crisis this week after Evo Morales – the country’s first indigenous president and its longest-serving leader – was forced to step down following pressure from the military, police and public protests over allegations that he stole an election on 20 October, which would have seen him remain in power until 2025.
An interim administration led by Jeanine Áñez has assumed power with a mandate to call fresh elections but violent protests have claimed 10 lives and the South American country of 11 million people faces its most uncertain moment in several decades.
How fair were the elections?
Morales has long been accused of using the levers of state to boost his popular support through free advertising and handouts to voters. Bolivia’s constitutional court – which is elected from candidates nominated by the government-controlled assembly – allowed Evo Morales to run for a fourth consecutive term, despite narrowly losing a referendum on the issue in 2016.
Various parties and candidates competed in the elections on 20 October. After a preliminary vote count was interrupted – it resumed 24 hours later, indicating that Morales had narrowly surpassed a 10 percentage-point lead over his nearest rival needed to win outright – observers from the Organization of American States (OAS) sounded the alarm.
Their subsequent audit found evidence of “clear manipulation”, including stuffed ballots, forged signatures and compromised servers. However, critics have questioned the impartiality of the OAS, noted that Morales’s apparent victory was in line with previous polling and argued that his late-stage surge in votes reflected late-reporting rural areas.
Was there a coup d’état?
Bolivians and international observers are divided. That Morales resigned amid a widespread police mutiny and shortly after Bolivia’s armed forces suggested he do so suggests a classic coup d’état. The haste with which the interim administration of Jeanine Áñez assumed power – lacking a quorum and failing to first formally accept Morales’s resignation – along with subsequent military and police deployments confirms this impression.
However, critics on the left and right argue that the terminology of a coup should not distract from Morales’s own democratic failings, including his alleged electoral fraud, and that public pressure from the military only came after Morales had lost the support of his party, trade unionists and some indigenous groups, and faced spiralling protests.
In practice, whether or not his departure is judged as an unconstitutional coup or not will depend on the avoidance of further repression and swift move to hold free and fair elections.
What role have other countries played?
Leftwing political leaders in Argentina, Cuba, Mexico, Uruguay and Venezuela have condemned Morales’s removal as a coup d’état. Conversely, Brazil’s rightwing president, Jair Bolsonaro, refused to recognise Morales’s apparent electoral victory and celebrated his removal – as has Donald Trump’s White House, which praised the Bolivian military for “abiding by its oath to protect not just a single person, but Bolivia’s constitution”.
Russia – a key Morales ally – the UK and Germany are among those countries that have recognised Áñez as interim president and supported calls for another vote. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has dispatched a special envoy to Bolivia to work with the European Union and OAS to help resolve the crisis and guarantee transparent elections.
What happens next?
According to the constitution, the interim government of Áñez is required to hold fresh elections within 90 days. Negotiations with figures from Morales’s Mas party are ongoing. The ousted president has indicated that he could return if asked to help pacify protests, but Áñez has insisted that Morales cannot be a candidate and will face investigation for alleged electoral fraud and corruption if he sets foot in Bolivia again.
Amid an atmosphere of deep mistrust and polarisation, violence and protests are likely to continue. The complexion of Bolivia’s next government will depend on whether polls are conducted freely and fairly and if the Mas can regroup, potentially under a new leader.
