Boise State vs. UNLV: Game Preview, Kick Time, Livestream, Odds, Prediction
Boise State Will Continue Conference Play against the Struggling Rebels of UNLV
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Broncos make one last trip to Sam Boyd
Boise State entered their first bye week of the year at 4-0 and will reengage in conference play. Next up for the Broncos is the UNLV Rebels. UNLV has not been overly successful the last few years and this should be a good game to work out any kinks that Boise State may have after two weeks of practice. The schedule for the Broncos does get a bit harder after this matchup with a home contest versus Hawaii and a trip to Provo to face BYU.
Boise State did lose their starting middle linebacker and leading tackler, Ezekiel Noa, in their matchup versus Air Force but may get some players back from the injured list and this will be a good game to ease them back into competition. Either way, this should be a game that the Broncos should win before getting into the heart of their schedule. However, no opponent can be taken too lightly and the Rebels do have enough athletes and the talent to make this game interesting.
Date: Saturday, October 5th 2019
Where: Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas
When: 8:30 PM MT
Spread: Boise State -24
ESPN FPI Win Predictor: Boise State projected to win at 93% rate
Weather: High of 86˚/Low of 61˚, mostly clear and no chance of rain. Sunset at 7:18 PM MT
How to Watch: CBS Sports Network
Stream: FuboTV (Get a 7-day free trial)
Head to Head Record: 4-0, Boise State
Previous Meeting: Boise State 42, UNLV 25 on November 18, 2016 in Boise, Idaho.
MWC Division Titles: UNLV 0, Boise State 2 (2017 and 2014)
MWC Conference Titles: UNLV 0, Boise State 3 (2017, 2014, and 2012*) *split championship
UNLV Season Rewind
Welp, the Rebels have not been very good in 2019 and there is no way to sugar coat that. The Rebels opened with a home victory over FCS foe Southern Utah, but the good vibes came to a halt shortly after that. UNLV dropped 3 straight games to Arkansas State (by 26 points), at Northwestern (by 16 points), and finally at Wyoming (by 36 points).
Rebel head football coach Tony Sanchez might be coaching for his job but he does have a veteran quarterback in Armani Rogers. Unfortunately for Sanchez, Rogers along with star running back Charles Williams are dealing with knee issues but are currently expected to play in this contest.
Boise State Offense Update
Boise State has put up good numbers on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos rank 24th in yards gained but only come in at 62nd in points scored. This has been due to the Boise State offense stalling in the red zone repeatedly during the early part of the year.
This is something the head coach Bryan Harsin has undoubtedly worked on during the bye week. True Freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier has dazzled so far and has notched 1,190 yards on a 64% completion rate with 6 touchdowns against 3 interceptions to go along with a rushing touchdown.
Boise State Defense Update
Boise State’s defense has been solid this year as well and rank 21st in points given up per game and 25th in total yards allowed per game. Boise State’s defense has been especially lights out in the second half of football games, having only allowed nine points after the intermission for the season. With Noa out, the rest of the Broncos will have to be stalwart as new players are rotated in. Curtis Weaver, the current active leader in career sacks at the FBS level, has 6 sacks in2019 and has been the monster we predicted he would be before the year.
Rankings
Boise State did not move in either poll during the bye week. The Broncos remain at 16th in the AP Poll and stand at 15th in the USA Today Coaches Poll. UNLV is not receiving votes in either poll. Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings have the Broncos checking in as the 27th best team in division 1 football and the Rebels find themselves at 133rd.
Here are some games that Boise State fans need to keep an eye on.
New Mexico at San Jose State (-7) at Friday 8 PM MT on CBS Sports Network
Both of these schools are 2-2 and longshots for a bowl game in 2019 but scoring a victory this weekend will help the winning team potentially get to 6 wins.
Utah State at Louisiana State (-26) at Saturday 10 AM MT on SEC Network
This game will be extremely tough for the Aggies to win but Utah State must keep this game close and somewhat competitive to maintain their status as one of the Mountain West’s elite.
Air Force (-2) at Navy at Saturday 1:30 PM MT CBS Sports Network
A Mountain West vs American Athletic Conference showdown! Both academies only have 1 loss for the year so this will game will go a long way to show which of these teams are legitimately strong.
San Diego State (-7) at Colorado State at Saturday 8 PM MT on ESPN2
The Aztecs will look to get back on the winning path after dropping a close contest to Utah State. Colorado State continues their fight to escape the conference cellar.
Bye Week: Nevada, Fresno State, Hawaii, and Wyoming
Predicitions (my prediction can be found at the bottom of this article)
Jeremy Mauss (Mountain West Wire Manager): Boise State 41, UNLV 13
Matt Kenerly (Mountain West Wire Editor): Boise State 38, UNLV 10
Erik Smiley (Mountain West Wire Boise State Contributor): Boise State 56, UNLV 10
Collin Clovis (Mountain West Wire Boise State Contributor): Boise State 45, UNLV 17
Rebels Offense Update and Notables
On offense, UNLV ranks 90th in total yards gained per game and 88th in points scored per game. These are some players for UNLV to keep an eye on offense:
1) Armani Rogers, Junior Quarterback
The third-year signal-caller for the Rebels is a classic dual-threat weapon. Rogers has not been too successful throwing the ball this year and has 393 yards on a 52% completion rate with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Rogers does have 204 yards rushing the ball along with two more touchdowns gained that way. Rogers has a knee sprain and is listed as probable for this weekend’s game.
2) Charles Williams, Junior Running Back
Charles Williams is bar none one of the best running backs in the Mountain West. Williams has racked up 472 yards on an average of 8.6 yards per carry to go along with 4 touchdowns. The problem for the Rebels is that Williams like Rogers is dealing with a knee sprain. Rogers left last week’s game against Wyoming early but is currently expected to play versus Boise State.
3) Randall Grimes, Sophomore Wide Receiver
Grimes is a big athlete and should be a handful for the Bronco’s secondary. Grimes is 6 foot 4 and a transfer from USC. For the year Grimes has 14 catches for 175 yards with a touchdown. Rogers will look for Grimes to open the field up to give Charles Williams room to operate.
Rebels Defense-Update and Notables
On defense, UNLV ranks 109th in total yards allowed per game and 119th in points allowed per game. These are some notable Rebels on defense to watch:
1) Tavis Malakius, Junior Defensive Tackle
Malakius is a big athlete and will need to create pressure on Bachmeier to slow down the Broncos rushing attack. Malakius has 7 tackles and 0.5 sacks for the year.
2) Rayshad Jackson, Junior Linebacker
Jackson has 28 tackles for the year, 2.5 of them for a loss. Jackson is a transfer from Florida and moves around the field well and will look to cause havoc on the field.
3) Even Austrie, Senior Safety
Austrie is the leader of the Rebel defense and will be counted to lead his squad against the talented Broncos. Austrie leads UNLV with 33 tackles and has a sack for the year.
Broncos to Keep an Eye On
Here are some Boise State players to keep an eye on for this contest.
1) Hank Bachmeier, Freshman Quarterback
The straw that stirs the Boise State offense, Bachmeier has been terrific for the year. Bachmeier has been criticized for holding onto the ball too long while looking to make a play and this has led to excessive hits that the freshman has taken. It will be worth watching to see if Bachmeier and offensive coordinator Zak Hill have worked to improve the timing used to get the ball out of the young quarterback’s hands a few seconds earlier.
2) Andrew Van Buren, Sophomore Running Back
Boise State has utilized a running back by committee this season and Robert Mahone and George Holani have gotten the line shares of touches. Van Buren has played meaningful snaps as well and has notched 15 carries and 3 catches for 72 total yards for the year. Van Buren has made some mistakes in his play (fumbles and missed blocks) and the bye week may have been a good opportunity for Van Buren to clean up his play a bit and earn more playing time.
3) CT Thomas, Junior Wide Receiver
Thomas has been a superstar for the Bronco offense in 2019 and provided a nice safety outlet for Bachmeier. Thomas has racked up 14 catches for 283 yards and 3 touchdowns for the year and this game versus UNLV will be an opportunity to continue to grow his rapport with Bachmeier and pad his stats some more.
4) Riley Whimpey, Junior Linebacker
With Noa out, the leadership role at the linebacker will fall squarely on the veteran Whimpey. Whimpey who missed a big chunk of last season with his own ACL tear, will be depended on to lead the way on the field. For the year, Whimpey has 23 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 forced fumble.
5) Avery Williams, Junior Cornerback
The standout corner has played well in coverage and has been expected to line up against the opposing number 1 wide receivers all year long. Williams has done well in that role and has played well in special teams where he has made his mark by blocking a kick earlier in the year. Williams is known for being a dynamite punt returner and has 30 yards on six returns this year, but this week may be an opportunity for Williams to break loose for a big return.
6) Joel Velazquez, Junior Punter
The Broncos own punting game has not been good so far with Velazquez averaging only a modest 36 yards on 14 attempts this year. Velazquez had a particularly bad game versus Air Force which caused Head Coach Bryan Harsin to state that this position would be reevaluated. Velazquez remains at top spot on the depth chart and this may be a redemption game for him.
Boise State Game Plan for Victory
Here are some keys for the Broncos to claim a victory in Las Vegas.
1) Win the Turnover battle
Boise State is a big time favorite on the road and the best way to get upset in this circumstance is to turn the ball over and give the opposition some momentum. If Boise State can hang on to the ball and have meaningful long drives, it may become difficult for the Rebels to keep this game competitive.
2) Protect the Quarterback
Hank Bachmeier has put up good numbers when he has time to throw the ball. After a bye week to watch the film and tweak mechanics, the offensive line will hopefully be more in synch with the freshman quarterback. In the last few years, Boise State has started off with poor performances from the offensive line before that unit slowly developed into one of the strongest in the conference. The Broncos are hoping that trend continues once again.
2) Pressure the Opposing Quarterback
The Broncos are short on the depth chart at the linebacker position and the best way to negate that weakness is to get pressure on the Rebel quarterback from the front four defensive linemen. Luckily for Boise State fans, the Broncos have one of the best in the country at that: Curtis Weaver. If Weaver and his buddies along the line can get pressure on Rogers, it will limit UNLV’s opportunity to get momentum in this contest.
Look Around the Country
Here are some matchups this weekend across the country that could impact the Broncos.
#18 Central Florida (-4.5) at Cincinnati
6 PM MT on Friday Night, ESPN
ESPN FPI Predictor: UCF to win 56%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Cincinnati
This is a battle between 2 of the stronger teams in the American Athletic Conference. Despite their loss, UCF is nipping on the heels of the Broncos in both the polls
#14 Iowa at #19 Michigan (-5)
10 AM MT, FOX
ESPN FPI Predictor: Michigan to win 62%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Michigan
Iowa is right above Boise State in the polls and Michigan is just a few spots below.
#11 Texas (-11.5) at West Virginia
1:30 PM MT, ABC
ESPN FPI Predictor: Texas to win 76%
Bronco Rooting Interest: West Virginia
A Mountaineer victory will allow the Broncos to move up a spot in the rankings.
Memphis (-16.5) at UL Monroe
1:45 PM MT, ESPNU
ESPN FPI Predictor: Memphis to win 84%
Bronco Rooting Interest: UL Monroe
Memphis is one of the three Group of 5 schools undefeated outside of Boise State. Memphis is generating buzz and gaining votes in both polls.
Tulsa at #24 Southern Methodist (-13)
5:30 PM MT, ESPNU
ESPN FPI Predictor: SMU to win 82%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Tulsa
SMU, like Memphis, is undefeated. The Mustangs have broken through and are now ranked in the polls.
California at #13 Oregon (-18)
6 PM MT, Fox
ESPN FPI Predictor: 93%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Cal
Similar to the Texas/West Virginia matchup, a Ducks loss will allow Boise State to move up in the rankings.
#15 Washington (-14.5) at Stanford
8:30 PM MT, ESPN
ESPN FPI Predictor: UW to win 78%
Bronco Rooting Interest: Stanford
Coach Pete and the Huskies hold the spot above Boise State in the AP rankings.
Prediction
You can never count any conference game a guaranteed win and that applies to this matchup versus UNLV. However, this is a game Boise State should win.
Coach Harsin has made comments to the local media this week in which he emphasized a need to start faster and increase the intensity in preparation; I think both of those bear fruit in this matchup. The team is well-rested after the bye week and I expect a classic Bronco blow out in Vegas.
Look for Boise State to come out to an early lead and have clear control of the game by the third quarter. Coach Harsin should be able to use the fourth quarter to try out some different options at the linebacker position and go deep in his roster. Broncos win big.
Boise State 48, UNLV 20
