Boise State vs. Florida State: Game Preview, Kick Time, TV & Radio Schedule, Livestream, Prediction
The Broncos travel to Jacksonville for the season opener against Florida State. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
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Will the Broncos upset the Seminoles?
College football is back! Boise State is certainly no stranger to facing the biggest names in college football to open the year having played Oregon, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Michigan State, Ole Miss, and Washington (twice) to start within the last ten years. Florida State, a three-time national champion, is certainly one of the biggest names there is in college football.
The Broncos will have a lot of new faces in key positions this year with the graduations of quarterback Brett Rypien, cornerback Tyler Horton, and defensive linemen Jabril Frazier and Durrant Miles, and running back Alexander Mattison. Boise State does return star defensive end Curtis Weaver and NFL prospect Ezra Cleveland at left tackle, along with a host of talented wide receivers.
Florida State is one of the bigger opponents, in terms of brand recognition, that Boise State has ever faced. This is the first part of a home-and-home series and the Seminoles moved this game from their home campus in Tallahassee to Jacksonville. This big time match-up will be during primetime on ESPN.
Boise State will once again look to open the year with a statement victory and march toward another successful double-digit win season and a major bowl game.
Date: August 31, 2019
Where: Jacksonville, FL
When: 5 PM MST
Spread: Florida State -5.5
Weather: 78˚, partly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain and scattered thunderstorms
How to Watch: ESPN
Streaming: WatchESPN – (Try SlingTV for a 7-day free trial to get this game)
All Time Record: First Meeting (Boise State is 2-2 vs the ACC/Florida State is 4-0 vs the MWC)
ESPN FPI Win Predictor: Florida State has a 71.5% chance to win
Boise State 2018 Rewind
Behind star quarterback Brett Rypien’s red hot start, Boise State started the 2018 season with a pair of blowout victories and earned an AP ranking. The Broncos, however, dropped two of their next three contests before rattling off seven straight wins behind Mattison and a stout defense.
Boise State finished the year 10-2 in coach Bryan Harsin’s fifth year before dropping a heartbreaker in the Mountain West Conference championship game. The Broncos’ bowl game against ACC foe Boston College was cancelled due to thunderstorms.
Florida State 2018 Rewind
The Seminoles were ranked in the 2018 preseason AP Poll and that might have been the high point in coach Willie Taggart’s first season in Tallahassee. Florida State did grind their way to a solid 4-3 start before the wheels fell off, losing three straight games in humiliating fashion before splitting the final two. They finished the year 5-7 and were not eligible to play in a bowl game for the first time in 36 years.
Preseason Rankings
Boise State was not ranked in either the AP Poll or USA Today Coaches Poll, but the Broncos received a number of votes in both and are just outside the top 25. Florida State did not receive votes in the AP Poll, either, and earned just a few votes in the Coaches Poll. Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings are high on the Seminoles in the preseason, however, as his model has Florida State at 23 and the Broncos at 27, similar to their position to the polls.
Weather Watch
While there does not seem to be any imminent threat to cancel or reschedule this game, the game will likely be wet and game play will be stopped for any threat of thunderstorms. Hurricane Dorian, which is currently in the Caribbean and headed toward Puerto Rico and Florida, is a concern and is being monitored.
Also, the humidity could play a factor even though the game is being played at 7:00 PM local time.
Predictions (my prediction can be found at the bottom of this article)
Pete Fiutak (College Football News): Florida State 26, Boise State 20
Dustin Lewis (Nole Game Day at 24/7) : Florida State 38, Boise State 24
Jason Parker (Chop Chat at Fansided): Florida State 30, Boise State 24
Jeremy Mauss (Mountain West Wire Manager): Boise State 21, Florida State 17
Matt Kenerly (Mountain West Wire Editor): Florida State 24, Boise State 20
Erik Smiley (Mountain West Wire Boise State Contributor): Boise State 36, Florida State 17
Collin Clovis (Mountain West Wire Boise State Contributor): Boise State 27, Florida State 24
Seminoles to Watch on Offense
Florida State finished the 2018 season ranked 111th in offense in terms of yards gained and 113th in points scored. Here are a few key members of the Seminoles offense to keep an eye out for:
1) Kendall Briles, offensive coordinator (first year)
Normally, a coordinator would not warrant a mention on this list but Briles might be the scariest Seminole for the Broncos on Saturday night. He is mostly known for running the offense at Baylor under his father Art and oversaw an offense that smoked Boise State back in 2015.
Baylor put up 515 yards of total offense and 31 points in a 31-12 victory over the Broncos in that Cactus Bowl contest. Coach Harsin did mention the strain that Briles’s up-tempo offense can put on a defense and has stated that the Broncos are prepared for a rematch with Briles.
2) James Blackman, quarterback (redshirt sophomore)
Blackman was the starting quarterback for the Seminoles two years ago as a true freshman and posted mediocre numbers at that time. Last year, Blackman played in just three games and was able to chalk the season up to a redshirt year.
For his career, Blackman has thrown for 2,740 yards with a 59% completion rate and 24 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. Coach Taggert brought in senior graduate transfer Alex Hornibrook from Wisconsin early in the offseason and Blackman briefly entered the transfer portal before changing his mind and eventually winning the starting job back. Blackman is a big athletic player at 6-foot-5 but has not been much of a running threat.
3) Cam Akers, running back (junior)
Akers spent the last two years as a productive back while splitting carries for the Seminoles, cracking the 1,000-yard mark during his true freshman season. In 2019, he seems poised to be the main cog in the Florida State rushing attack.
For his career, Akers has gained 1,731 yards at a 4.9 yards per carry rate. He is also a credible threat catching the ball out of the backfield with 39 receptions for 261 yards over the past two years. Akers has 16 touchdowns for his career.
4) Tamorrion Terry, wide receiver (redshirt sophomore)
Big and talented, those are two words to describe Tamorrion Terry. At 6-foot-4, Terry will be Blackman’s primary receiving target. After redshirting and not appearing in any games in 2017, Terry hauled in 35 receptions for 744 yards and eight touchdowns last season. He is recovering from off-season knee surgery but is expected to be active and playing in the season opener.
Seminoles to Watch on Defense
Florida State finished the 2018 season ranked 76th in defense in terms of yards allowed and 90th in points allowed. These are a few stand out players on the Seminoles defense:
1) Marvin Wilson, defensive tackle (junior)
If Tamorrion Terry is big and talented, Marvin Wilson is a simply a huge beast, measuring in at 6-foot-5 and 311 pounds. After playing sparingly in his freshman year, Wilson racked up 41 tackles and 3.5 sacks last year with a forced fumble. Wilson will be at the center of Florida State’s defensive line.
2) Dontavious Jackson, linebacker (senior)
The senior leader of the Seminoles defense, Jackson has gotten better in every season he has played. He led the Seminoles with 74 tackles last year and contributed with a sack, interception, and forced fumble as well.
3) Stanford Samuels III, cornerback (junior)
The highly touted Samuels may look to make the jump to the NFL if he has a big year in 2019. Samuels has good size, at 6-foot-2, for the corner position. While he did play extensively as a true freshman, he took a big step forward last season with 58 tackles and 4 interceptions. For his career, Samuels has 85 tackles to go along with six interceptions and a forced fumble.
Keys to A Boise State Victory
While the Broncos are underdogs in this virtual road contest, they certainly are not without a shot of winning this game. Boise State have overcome greater odds in the past to find a path to victory. These are a few keys for the Broncos in this contest:
1. Get pressure on the quarterback
Seminoles quarterback James Blackman will be behind a questionable offensive line and the Broncos defense must get to the quarterback for this game to be competitive. With superstar Curtis Weaver and team captain David Moa anchoring the line, this is the one match-up where Boise State has the decided talent edge.
2. Win the turnover battle
As the road underdog, you need to get some lucky breaks. Winning the turnover battle will greatly increase the chance the Broncos can steal a victory. No word yet, however, from Boise State about whether the Turnover Throne will be making the trip to Jacksonville. (editors note: please, please make this happen)
3. Prevent the big play
While the Seminoles offensive line might not be impressive, the speed and talent of the wide receivers at Florida State is startling. The Broncos will need to find a way to get pressure with just four players so that they can ensure the secondary keeps the Seminoles weapons in front of them.
Boise State’s defensive backs must be disciplined in their assignments because a blown assignment may lead to an easy score for Florida State.
4) Don’t get beat by the heat, humidity, noise, and hype
The conditions in Florida for this game will be hot and likely wet. Also, it will be fair to expect the Seminole faithful to be loud with their infamous war chant all game long.
Still, Harsin and the Broncos have been in these situations before and have overcome better opponents in more grandiose settings. The coaches will need to ensure that the Broncos keep their poise in this matchup. Boise State has been simulating crowd noise and humidity in the past few weeks to prepare for this contest.
Prediction
Folks, this is going to be a tough one. Not only do the Broncos replace their four-year starting quarterback with a true freshman, they will also be going into this game with a new running back and without their top two wide receivers from last year.
While Florida State was not overly successful last season, they will likely bounce back in Taggart’s second year on the job. The Seminoles are, without a doubt, one of the most talented teams Boise State has ever faced. Their talent, size, and speed on both sides of the ball is staggering.
So why am I going to pick Boise State to win this game as road underdogs? It’s not just because I am a Boise State graduate and unabashed homer, but because of the intangibles. Coach Taggart has proven himself to be a great recruiter and a solid leader, but he has yet to translate that to sustained success on the football field. Coach Harsin and Boise State, on the other hand, have a long distinguished track record of winning big games no matter what the odds are.
Additionally, while the Seminoles might have the overall talent edge, the Broncos do have look to have the advantage in the trenches. Boise State returns all five starters from last year’s offensive line to go up against a talented Seminoles defensive line. Additionally, the strength of Boise State in 2019 is undoubtedly their defensive line and the Seminoles biggest weak spot may be their ability to protect their quarterback. The Broncos must stick to the basics and avoid mistakes in this contest.
I have the Broncos edging out a win in this game and setting the stage for a big 2019 campaign.
Boise State 27, Florida State 24
All statistics from: ESPN, Weather.com, 247 Sports, and College Football Reference
