Boise State vs. Air Force: Game Preview, Kick Time, Livestream, Radio Schedule, Prediction
The first conference game of the year is a good one.
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Falcons travel to the blue to face the Broncos
Disclaimer: While this is a neutral game preview between 2 Mountain West Conference opponents, I am a Boise State graduate
Mountain West conference play has arrived, and two mountain division foes square off on a Friday night to start things off. Air Force travels to the blue turf in Boise in what should be a competitive contest. Since the Mountain West split into divisions, no one in the mountain division has been able to stand toe to toe with Boise State like the Air Force Falcons have.
Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun welcomed Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin into the conference in 2014 by handing the Broncos 3 straight losses in 3 consecutive years, something no other school has been able to do to the mighty Broncos this century. However, Coach Harsin was able to circle the wagons and come away as the victor the last two years.
Both schools are undefeated and will look to score a big win on ESPN2 before a national audience.
Date: Friday September 20, 2019
Where: Boise, ID
When: 7 PM, MST
Spread: Boise State -8
ESPN FPI Win Predictor: 72% Boise State victory
Weather: 66˚ and partly cloudy. Sunset at 7:46 PM
How to Watch: ESPN2 – Stream on SlingTV with a free-trial
Head to Head Record: 4-3, Boise State
Previous Meeting: 48-38, Boise State victory on October 27, 2018 in Colorado Springs, CO
MWC Mountain Division Titles: Air Force 1 (2015), Boise State 2 (2017 and 2014)
MWC Conference Titles: Air Force 0, Boise State 3 (2017, 2014, and 2012*) *split championship
Air Force Season Rewind
Despite losing superstar running back Cole Fagan before the year, the Falcons have come blazing out of the gates in 2019. After smashing their opening week warm up FCS opponent (Colgate), the Falcons proved their mettle with a road win against a Pac-12 opponent when Air Force defeated in state rival Colorado.
While the Falcons lead most of that game, Colorado rallied and forced overtime but Air Force was able to come away with a victory in the extra stanza. As usual, the Falcon offense has been very successful running the ball within their triple option offensive scheme while the defense has held up their end of the bargain. Led by their dynamic junior quarterback, Donald Hammond III, and veteran head coach, Troy Calhoun, Air Force can make a major splash with a road upset over the Broncos.
Boise State Season Rewind
Boise State opened their 2019 campaign with a bang by scoring a major road victory over college football blue blood Florida State. The Broncos replaced outgoing quarterback Brett Rypien, who holds majority of the Mountain West passing records, with a true freshman in Hank Bachmeier. Bachmeier has not disappointed and the Broncos followed up their win over the Seminoles with home victories over Marshall from Conference USA and Portland State of the FCS.
With youngsters at the quarterback and running back positions, head coach Bryan Harsin has complimented his offense with a strong defense that has been impenetrable in the second half of the 3 Bronco victories. The Broncos would love to knock off their familiar foe Air Force in conference play before heading into their bye week.
Rankings
Boise State rose from 22 to 20 in both the AP Poll and the USA Today Coaches Poll. Air Force is not currently receiving votes in either poll. Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings have the Broncos checking in at 24 and the Falcons at 55.
Wyoming (+3) at Tulsa at Saturday 1:30 PM CBS Sports Network
New Mexico State at New Mexico (-4.5) at Saturday 2:30 PM
Toledo at Colorado State (+8) at Saturday 8:15 PM ESPN2
Utah State (+5) at San Diego State at Saturday 8:30 PM CBS Sports Network
Predictions (my prediction can be found at the bottom of this article)
Jeremy Mauss (Mountain West Wire Manager): Boise State 28, Air Force 24
Matt Kenerly (Mountain West Wire Editor): Boise State 24, Air Force 22
Erik Smiley (Mountain West Wire Boise State Contributor): Boise State 28, Air Force 17
Collin Clovis (Mountain West Wire Boise State Contributor): Boise State 34, Air Force 17
Sean O’Toole (Mountain West Wire Air Force Contributor): Air Force 28, Boise State 27
Falcons Offense Update and Notables
The Air Force offense has been solid so far in this young season led by their dual threat quarterback. The Falcons are currently ranked 28th in points per game and 45th in yards gained per game. As expected with the triple option, the Falcons are one of the lowest passing teams in terms of yards per game but rank 2nd in offense in rushing yards in the same metric. It should be noted that Air Force has only faced an FCS team and Colorado ranks 117th in the country in defense.
1) Donald Hammond III, junior quarterback
Hammond III is a prototypical triple-option offense and has been a stalwart leader for Air Force. Hammond III has thrown for 155 yards on 13 attempts with a 58% completion percentage for the year. Hammond III also has 2 touchdowns against 1 interception.
While those numbers do not stand out, within the triple-option most of Hammond III’s passes have been deep shots and Hammond III is averaging 12.5 yards per attempt. As expected Hammond III is a capable runner and has racked up 48 yards on 11 attempts to go along with 4 rushing touchdowns.
2) Kadin Remsberg, junior running back
After being primarily a backup last season, Remsberg has moved into the primary running back role this year. Remsberg has 208 yards on 32 attempts for 6.5 yards per carry and 3 rushing touchdowns. While Remsberg has no receptions this season, he did haul in 6 catches including a touchdown last season.
2) Geraud Sanders, senior wide receiver
Yes, Air Force does not throw the ball frequently but Sanders does have the size and speed to be a credible receiving threat Sanders is the leading receiver for the Falcons, snagging 5 of the 8 Falcon pass completions this season. Sanders is a senior and has 527 receiving yards on 28 catches to go along with 4 touchdowns for his career. Sanders will be needed to stretch the Broncos defense to give the triple-option room to operate.
Falcons Defense Update and Notables
Air Force’s defense has been tough in this young season. The Falcons are in the top 10 in yards allowed per game and have been especially tough against the pass. Additionally, Air Force has recovered 3 turnovers for the year.
1) Jordan Jackson, junior defensive tackle
Jackson is a big athlete at 6 foot 5 and 270 pounds and is a returning all-conference 2nd team selection. Jackson has been quiet so far this year with only 3 tackles so far but will be needed to put pressure on Boise State’s struggling offensive line.
2) Milton Bugg III, junior cornerback
Bugg III is a talented cornerback and has already snagged 2 interceptions this year. Bugg III has 30 tackles for his career and will be counted upon to line up against the Broncos best wide receivers.
3) Jeremy Fejedelem, junior safety
The senior leader of this defense, Fejedelem does a bit of everything as the last line of defense for the Falcons. Fejedelem has 1.5 sacks during this season and reeled in 3 interceptions last year. Fejedelem has notched 154 tackles for his career.
Broncos Offense Update and Notables
Boise State has replaced their 4-year starting quarterback and superstar running back and now have true freshmen leading the team both passing and rushing. The Broncos are 19th in total yards gained however Boise State has had some trouble finding the end zone after long drives. Boise State comes in at 66th in points scored. Boise State’s passing attack ranks in the top ten in yards gained and their rushing attack finds itself in the middle of the pack.
1) Hank Bachmeier, freshman quarterback
The true freshman won the Broncos quarterback battle and has impressed with his play so far. Bachmeier ranks 10th in the FBS in yards gained for the year and has shown toughness and grit that is generally not seen from freshmen. Bachmeier has taken a tremendous amount of hits this year as Boise State’s offensive line works through injuries and Bachmeier has also been criticized for holding the ball too long at times and leaves himself open to hits from the defense. Bachmeier has 927 yards on 110 attempts on a 62% completion percentage with 4 touchdowns against 3 interceptions.
2) Robert Mahone, junior running back
While true freshman George Holani leads the team in rushing yards, Mahone will likely be expected to take majority of the snaps against Air Force. Mahone was a backup to Alexander Mattison the last 2 years but exploded in the season opener against Florida State with 169 total yards and 2 touchdowns. A shoulder injury has limited Mahone in the last 2 contests but if Mahone is healthy, he will need to be a steady hand for the Broncos offense to keep the Falcons off the field as much as possible.
2) Khalil Shakir, sophomore wide receiver
Shakir is was a highly touted recruit who contributed immediately last season in a limited role in 10 games. This year appears to have the makings of a breakout campaign for Shakir. Through the first 3 games, Shakir has caught 17 passes for 237 yards and a touchdown. Shakir has 16 rushing attempts for his career and will likely be in motion and used in several various roles against Air Force.
Broncos Defense Update and Notables
Boise State’s defense has shown flashes of dominance during the first 3 games of the year in the 2019 season. The Broncos rank 27th in total yards allowed per game and 32nd in points allowed. It should be noted that Boise State has not allowed a single point in the second half so far this season and the Broncos are making tremendous adjustments during the intermission. Boise State has historically struggled against the triple option.
1) Curtis Weaver, junior defensive end
Weaver is the current active leader in sacks in FBS football with 26.5 and counting and is likely headed to the NFL after this season. Weaver is a terror for opposing offenses and has 6 sacks for the 2019 season already while also showing the ability to slide into coverage. This week against the triple option, Weaver will have to adapt his immense skill set against the unorthodox Air Force attack.
2) Ezekiel Noa, sophomore linebacker
Noa is the leading tackler for the Broncos with 18 tackles. Boise State will need Noa to react quickly and get to the ball carrier quick against the Falcons.
3) Kekoa Nawahine, senior safety
The last line of defense for Boise State will be the senior Nawahine. A multiple-time all-conference selection, Nawahine is a leader for the Broncos and will have to ensure that the Falcons are unable to hit their home run plays. Nawahine has 4 interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries for his career to go along with 207 tackles.
What to Watch for from the Falcons
Air Force is a road underdog on a short week and will need to play a great game to escape Boise with a victory. Here are 2 keys for a Falcon victory.
1) Significantly Win the Time of Possession battle
Air Force generally holds the ball for a while due to their run heavy offense. The Falcons will have to convert 3rd downs and move the ball so that they dominate the time of possession statistic. Keeping the Broncos offense on the sideline will prevent Boise State from getting comfortable on the blue turf.
2) Pressure the Bronco Quarterback
The biggest weakness that Boise State has shown on offense is the ability to protect their young quarterback. Bachmeier has moved the ball well but has still made the mistakes that are expected from freshman quarterbacks. Air Force must put as much pressure as possible on Bachmeier and take advantage of mistakes that the freshman makes.
What to Watch for from the Broncos
Boise State has struggled with Air Force and the triple option in the past. Here are 2 areas to watch that will help the Broncos move to 4-0.
1) Take an Early Lead
Boise State has had close games the last 3 weeks in the first half before pulling away in the second half. If Air Force finds themselves with a lead early, they can hold on to the ball and grind this game away. Boise State must be aggressive and score often and force Air Force to throw the football.
2) Minimize the Big Plays
Air Force will wear a defense down with their triple option before unleashing a big run or long pass. The Broncos will have to stay disciplined, tackle well, and keep the Falcons rushing attack in front of them. If Air Force is able to pick up yards on first and second downs, they will be more aggressive in taking their deep shots.
Prediction
This game is one of the biggest matchups in the conference this week as 2 of the 4 remaining undefeated teams in the conference faceoff. Air Force and Troy Calhoun will not be intimated by the Boise State home field as they have won on the blue turf in 2015.
What was expected to be a rebuilding year for the Falcons has suddenly become a season with possibilities after a Pac-12 victory. An early-season win over the Broncos will put the Falcons firmly in the driver’s seat to win the division in 2019. Yet while Boise State has struggled with the triple option in the past, they have played well against the Falcons the last 2 years. The Broncos defense will be well prepared for this matchup.
Speaking of preparation, the logistics of this game favor Boise State. Air Force is coming off a tough fought overtime victory against an in-state road opponent and now must travel to Boise on a short week. The Broncos on the other hand faced an FCS opponent and were able to go deep into their bench in the second half. That game was at home and Boise State was able to stay in Idaho for this Friday night game.
All these factors lead me to believe that this will be a Boise State victory. The most important factor might simply be that the Broncos have the more talented roster. I expect the Falcons to keep it close and put a scare into the Boise State crowd but fall short in the end. Boise State will win this one, folks.
Boise State 31, Air Force 17
