Boise State Looks Ready For Another Double-Digit Victory Season
Going through the Broncos schedule
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Will Boise State Win 10-Plus Games Again?
College football is right around the corner and the Boise State Broncos are gearing up for another campaign. Gone is four-year starting quarterback Brett Rypien, a superstar running back in Alexander Mattison, and defensive coordinator Andy Avalos and a host of stalwart senior contributors. However, Boise State is not without talent and head coach Bryan Harsin has an exciting young team ready for the upcoming campaign.
In 2019, Boise State will face their usual foes from the rest of the Mountain West Mountain division along with annual rival Brigham Young University and welcome back cross-division opponents Hawaii, San Jose State, and UNLV after a two-year break. Boise State will also face FCS opponent Portland State after opening the year with traditional college football power Florida State and fellow strong group of 5 opponent Marshall.
Here is your 2019 schedule primer:
Opponent: Florida State
Date: August 31, 2019
Location: Jacksonville, FL
Time: 5 PM MST
TV: ESPN
ESPN FPI Predictor: 28.3% chance to win
2018 Record: 5-7
All Time Record: First Meeting
Last Meeting: Not Applicable
This is not your dad’s Seminoles and Bobby Bowden is long gone. Florida State is coming off an underwhelming 5-7 year that did not end in a bowl game. It would be a mistake however to discount this squad. Coach Willie Taggart is entering his second year, the season most coaches will see a noticeable positive bounce and will look to put his mark on the program after having a reset year.
The Seminoles do have some unproven question marks especially at quarterback and offensive line but have a slew of highly ranked and athletic players. Especially of concern is the Florida State defense which has talented athletes and their wide receivers who have a tremendous amount of speed.
ESPN’s predictor has Boise State as a huge underdog and the current line has Boise State at +4. This is going to be a tough game for the Broncos. While it somewhat more likely than not that Boise State will have trouble in this game, it is not inconceivable that the Broncos leave Jacksonville (Florida State chose to move their home contest to another part of the state and away from their home campus) with a victory.
Bear in mind that Boise State will be starting a relatively unproven quarterback and new feature running back and it may be too much of a tall task to win this road game in week 1.
Confidence Meter: eh, it will be tough. If Boise State loses, which is likely, they will still have the rest of the year in front of us. If the Broncos can pull of this upset however, it will be a great shot in the arm and will place quite a bit of national spotlight on Boise. Coach Harsin and Boise State have defeated longer odds before.
Opponent: Marshall
Date: Friday February 6, 2019
Location: Boise, ID
Time: 7 PM MST
TV: ESPN 2
ESPN FPI Predictor: 80.8% chance to win
2018 Record: 9-4
All Time Record: Boise State 1-0
Last Meeting: Boise State 28, Marshall 24 (Boise, Idaho, 1994)
Marshall was one of the contenders to be the ‘next Boise State’ when they won 10, 13, and 10 games respectively from 2013 to 2015. Then the Thundering Herd went 3-9 in 2016 and flamed out as many ‘next Boise State claimants’ seem to do. Head Coach Doc Holliday has his team back on track and went 9-4 in 2018.
Like most schools, Marshall loses some players to graduation but do bring back feature back Tyler King and starting quarterback Isaiah Green; both are solid players. Marshall will play Boise State on a Friday night airing on ESPN2.
Marshall will have a glorified scrimmage against Virginia Military Institute in week 1 before facing the Broncos.
Confidence Meter: Likely win. ESPN likes Boise State to win this game quite easily and I would concur but there are a couple of concerns that don’t necessarily have to do with the Thundering Herd personnel. Boise State will be facing Marshall on a short week after a traveling for a tough contest vs. Florida State and there might be some fatigue along with the fact that the Bronco coaches will not have familiarity with Marshall.
If the Broncos were going to drop a game this year against a team we should beat, this might be it. However I think the Broncos will be able to take of business in this contest.
Opponent: Portland State
Date: Saturday September 14, 2019
Location: Boise, ID
Time: 8:15 PM MST
TV: ESPN 2
ESPN FPI Predictor: 98.7% chance to win
2018 Record: 4-7
All Time Record: 1-0 (Boise State)
Last Meeting: BSU 21, PSU 14 (2005, Boise ID)
Portland State is an FCS division football team that is being invited to Boise due to gaps in the schedule that occurred because of neutral site games or ‘2 for 1’s that Broncos have added to their future slate. The Vikings went 4-7 in the Big Sky last season and had losses to Oregon, Nevada, and our old friend Idaho.
Portland State head coach Bruce Barnum returns for his fifth year and sports a 16-29 record. Barnum interestingly went 9-3 in his first season and made it to the second round of the FCS playoffs but managed to ‘pull a UCF’ and go 0-11 in his third season.
Confidence Meter: We should expect the Broncos to roll out a vanilla playbook and try out a few different players to get a better feel for the depth chart. This may be a game where some younger quarterbacks get a chance to throw the ball. The outcome is a formality, Broncos will win big.
Opponent: Air Force
Date: Friday September 20, 2019
Location: Boise, ID
Time: 7 PM MST
TV: ESPN 2
ESPN FPI Predictor: 78.3% chance to win
2018 Record: 5-7
All Time Record: 4-3 (Boise State)
Last Meeting: BSU 48, AFA 38 (2018, Colorado Springs CO)
Last season the Falcons did what they do against Boise State, played tough and kept the score close and put a legitimate fear in Boise State. Defensive wiz and Bronco Legend Andy Avalos who had seemed to have turned the corner with issues involving the triple option is now in Oregon and new defensive coordinator Jeff Schmedding will get his chance versus the nightmare offense that Air Force runs.
It should be noted that Air Force’s two most dangerous weapons last season, QB Isaiah Sanders and RB Cole Fagan are not returning this year.
Confidence Meter: yeah, its Air Force and they deserve the right to have us a little bit worried. But all in all, I am not stressing this game on the Blue Turf. This game will be played on a short week after the Broncos face an FCS tomato can while Air Force will be coming off a meeting with Colorado. Broncos win.
Opponent: UNLV
Date: Saturday October 5, 2019
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Time: 8:30 PM MST
TV: CBS Sports Network
ESPN FPI Predictor: 83.9% chance to win
2018 Record: 4-8
All Time Record: 4-0 (Boise State)
Last Meeting: BSU 42, UNLV 25 (2016, Boise ID)
The Rebels were a train wreck last year and do not project be very good this year either. There is some talent down in Las Vegas, but head coach Tony Sanchez has not been able to field a winning program and might be coaching for his job in 2019.
The Broncos will be coming off an extended bye week and should be fully rested and prepared for this matchup. Bronco Nation have traveled well to Sin City in the past and there should be a lot of Blue in the stadium to cheer on Boise State in this contest.
Confidence Meter: Should be a nice fun evening blowout that will put traveling Bronco fans in a good mood to take in the sights in Las Vegas afterward. Should be an easy victory for the good guys.
Opponent: Hawaii
Date: Saturday, October 12, 2019
Location: Boise, ID
Time: To Be Determined
TV: To Be Determined (ESPN Networks)
ESPN FPI Predictor: 87.0% chance to win
2018 Record: 8-6
All Time Record: 12-3 (Boise State)
Last Meeting: BSU 52, UH 16 (2016, Honolulu HI)
The Warriors were a surprise team in 2018 and jumped out to a 6-1 record before a 4-game losing streak derailed them. Still head coach Nick Rolovich has injected some energy into this football program and Hawaii is being considered a dark horse contender to win the west division.
Hawaii does have possibly the best quarterback in the league in junior Cole McDonald. McDonald threw for 3,875 yards last year with 36 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Hawaii will also be coming off a bye before traveling to the mainland.
Confidence Meter: Hawaii will have time to prepare and will unleash their passing attack on a Boise State that played the run happy Air Force Falcons the week before. Hawaii does have some major flaws on their roster, however, notably their entire defense, and I do not anticipate the Warriors dancing in celebration on the Blue Turf. Boise State will likely win this contest.
Opponent: BYU
Date: Saturday October 19, 2019
Location: Provo, UT
Time: To Be Determined
TV: To Be Determined (ESPN Networks)
ESPN FPI Predictor: 42.7% chance to win
2018 Record: 7-6
All Time Record: 7-2 (Boise State)
Last Meeting: BSU 21, BYU 16 (2018, Boise ID)
This the second and last matchup of the year that ESPN’s FPI predictor places Boise State as an underdog. The Cougars had a tough season in 2018 and finished 7-6. They are projected to be better in 2019.
Boise State and Brigham Young did have an especially close contest in 2018 on the Blue Turf with Boise State escaping with a win. The Cougars have played the Broncos well in Provo and have notched both of their victories in this series at home.
Former Boise State commit and BYU starting quarterback Zach Wilson had offseason shoulder surgery but figures to ready by the time these two squads face each other.
Confidence Meter: It’s a tossup. I like the Broncos as the better team in the matchup, but the disparity is not too big and the location of this contest gives me pause. A bounce or two in the favor of BYU would likely put the Cougars in a position to win this one.
Opponent: San Jose State
Date: Saturday November 2, 2019
Location: San Jose, CA
Time: 8:30 PM MST
TV: CBS Sports Network
ESPN FPI Predictor: 88.1% chance to win
2018 Record: 1-11
All Time Record: 12-0 (Boise State)
Last Meeting: BSU 45, SJSU 31 (2016, Boise ID)
San Jose State is terrible at football and are overall fairly inept in most athletics that they participate in. The Spartans have a total of 7 wins over the course of the last 3 years on the football field with the 2018 Spartans bringing in a 1-11 record.
Head Coach Brent Brennan is returning for his third year and brings with him a senior quarterback in Josh Love.
Confidence Meter: I guess Portland State is technically the easiest game on the schedule, but this contest will come close. Boise State will be coming off their second bye week for this contest and I expect a blowout in the first half with the second and third string playing heavy minutes in the second half.
Opponent: Wyoming
Date: Saturday November 9, 2019
Location: Boise, ID
Time: To Be Determined
TV: To Be Determined (ESPN Networks)
ESPN FPI Predictor: 86.2% chance to win
2018 Record: 6-6
All Time Record: 12-1 (Boise State)
Last Meeting: BSU 34, WYO 14 (2018, Laramie WY)
Cowboys head coach Craig Bohl has kept Wyoming steady since he pulled off an upset of Boise State in 2016. Finishing 8-5 and 6-6 the last two seasons, Wyoming will look to get to a bowl game in 2019 after being left at home in 2018.
Wyoming does lose many of their defensive stars that they kept them competitive the last few years but do have Antonio Hull returning at corner back and Logan Wilson at linebacker. Both are seniors and terrific players and the Cowboys will also bring back junior starting quarterback Tyler Vander Waal.
Wyoming will have a bye week before this contest and will be well rested and prepared before traveling to Boise.
Confidence Meter: High, I am confident that Boise State will win this matchup. Coming off a bye, Craig Bohl will bring a tough defense and a scrappy team. They likely will not be able to keep it competitive on the Blue Turf however.
Opponent: New Mexico
Date: Saturday November 16, 2019
Location: Boise, ID
Time: To Be Determined
TV: To Be Determined (ESPN Networks)
ESPN FPI Predictor: 94.0% chance to win
2018 Record: 3-9
All Time Record: 9-1 (Boise State)
Last Meeting: BSU 45, UNM 14 (2018, Albuquerque NM)
Remember when Head Coach Bob Davie and New Mexico stunned everyone in 2015 and beat Boise State on the Blue Turf? It was a high point for the Lobos which they followed up in 2016 with an impressive 9-4 record.
Unfortunately, that is where this fairy tale ends. The Lobos went a disastrous 3-9 in both 2017 and 2018. As disappointing as New Mexico has been on the field, Davie has faced accusations, investigations, and suspensions for unethical antics off the field.
ESPN predicts that this will be the second easiest game on the schedule for the Broncos in 2018.
Confidence Meter: New Mexico has no chance in this contest. Not only are they clearly out matched in this road contest, the school seems content to wait until Bob Davie’s contract is up so they can move on and rebuild the program. Expect a dominant Bronco victory as they enter the stretch run of the 2019 season.
Opponent: Utah State
Date: Saturday November 23, 2019
Location: Logan, UT
Time: 8:30 PM MST
TV: CBS Sports Network
ESPN FPI Predictor: 72.1% chance to win
2018 Record: 11-2
All Time Record: 15-3 (Boise State)
Last Meeting: BSU 33, USU 24 (2018, Boise ID)
Check out the Aggies getting votes and mentioned to win the mountain division in 2019. Their quarterback, Jordan Love, is talented and Utah State is pushing a Heisman campaign for him. Last year was a close game in Boise that the Broncos were victorious in. This year the matchup returns to Logan.
This certainly will be the most anticipated conference game in the Mountain West this year. While the Aggies have lost some of their talent, they still return Love and several other quality players. Utah State will face Wyoming at home the week before they face the Broncos, so they should be rested and ready to go.
It should be noted that amongst the losses that Utah State had, one was their head coach Matt Wells who took his talents to Texas Tech. Former Aggie head coach Gary Anderson returns after stints in Wisconsin and Oregon State.
Confidence Meter: Where as the other games in the Mountain West are likely wins with a possible slip-up in all 7 of those games; this is a real matchup for Boise State. Still, I like the Broncos to win this one. Boise State should have their quarterback position figured out by November and they will be the more talented team. Utah State will be a credible threat and ESPN has this game predicted as the third toughest matchup for Boise State in 2019.
Opponent: Colorado State
Date: Friday November 29, 2019
Location: Fort Collins, CO
Time: 1:30 PM MST
TV: CBS Sports Network
ESPN FPI Predictor: 80.5% chance to win
2018 Record: 3-9
All Time Record: 8-0 (Boise State)
Last Meeting: BSU 56, CSU 28 (2018, Boise ID)
Colorado State has never beaten Boise State. Not on the Blue Turf, not in Fort Collins. The Rams came close in 2017 when they had the Broncos on the ropes before faltering and losing to Boise State 57-52 in overtime.
After 3 straight 7-6 seasons, head coach Mike Bobo saw his team plummet to a 3-9 record in 2018. Bobo will like to right the ship in 2019 or he may face questions about his own job security. Colorado State will bring back junior quarterback Colin Hill but he will not have otherworld wide receiver Preston Williams who declared early for the NFL draft after the 2018 campaign.
While ESPN like Boise State as a heavy favorite in this contest, it is a rivalry game with division implications on the line in this season ending matchup. Expect the Rams to play tough in this contest.
Confidence Meter: I like Boise State to win. Colorado State just has not been able to put it together under Bobo and they will have to figure it out in 2019 without Preston Williams who was a true terror on the football field. Additionally, I anticipate Boise State circling a mountain division title and I do not anticipate they let it slip away because of a matchup with Colorado State.
Boise State has an easier schedule than they have had in the past few years and they should benefit from this. While making definitive predications for any college football game is difficult, an aggregate view of the chance to win each game on the schedule likely points to a 10-2 record, with 9-3 and 11-1 as also being likely. Additionally, I predict that Boise State will go either 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play and reach the Mountain West Championship game for the third straight year.
All statistics from ESPN, College Football Reference, and Boise State Athletics.
