Given the overwhelming and ever-growing popularity of the NFL over the past several decades, the drop in television ratings over the first five weeks of this season comes as relatively stunning news. After all, the league has become the biggest and most lucrative draw of any professional sports league, and anything other than increased popularity leads to the question about whether pro football has finally topped out and will soon experience its first meaningful decline.
The short answer: It's still too soon to know, despite the fact that prime-time ratings have experienced a double-digit decline. And even if the league has reached its peak and sees some dropoff among viewers and fans, it is still the biggest draw out there. Not just among pro sports, but among all entertainment options.
"Despite the decline in NFL ratings, it is still the No. 1 entertainment property in all of television," said Neil Pilson, president of Pilson Communications, a sports consulting company.
Pilson, who was a longtime president of CBS Sports, added: "More people watch the NFL on any given week than any other property, any other entertainment program, or any other television programming in our culture. While the ratings are down, the proportional impact of the NFL hasn't changed that much because all ratings are down. In fact, the NFL ratings are probably down less than most entertainment properties."
Even so, the fact that viewership is anything but up significantly, which has been the narrative for the NFL for decades, has at least caused the league to examine the issue and figure out why the decline is happening. Through the first month of the season, ratings were down 11 percent from last year, and ESPN's Monday Night Football broadcasts are down 21 percent.
Cause for concern? Yes. An existential problem for the sport? No. At least not in the near future.
But there has been enough buzz about the ratings decline that the NFL's top media executives, Brian Rolapp and Howard Katz, recently sent a memo to all 32 teams explaining the situation and emphasizing one significant underlying reason for the drop: a presidential election that has commanded so much attention.
The memo read: "Prime-time windows have clearly been affected the most, while declines during the Sunday afternoon window are more modest. While our (broadcast) partners, like us, would have liked to see higher ratings, they remain confident in the NFL and unconcerned about a long-term issue."
The election-year drop mirrors that of previous presidential races.
"In 2000, during the campaign between George W. Bush and Al Gore, all four NFL broadcast partners suffered year-over-year declines," according to the league. "Fox was down 4 percent, CBS was down 10 percent, ABC was down 7 percent and ESPN was down 11 percent."
Another factor could be the fallout from the player protests of the national anthem, leading to a movement referred to as (hashtag)boycottNFL.
Rolapp and Katz, however, said they saw "no evidence that concern over player protests during the national anthem is having any material impact on our ratings."
Not all the news is bad, though. According to an industry source, the league-wide reach of the NFL was actually up through four weeks, with 149.5 million people watching the NFL, compared to 149.1 million last year. FOX broadcasts are down by around three percent among all viewers, not nearly the plummet the prime time games have experienced.
Several factors have contributed to the decline. Among the most significant:
_1) Peyton Manning's retirement and Tom Brady's suspension. The two marquee quarterbacks were absent the first month of the season, with Manning having retired after last year and Brady serving a four-game suspension for his alleged role in Deflategate. Not having either quarterback as a built-in draw was certainly not optimal, although Brady's return figures to increase ratings for future Patriots games.
_2) Other quarterback injuries. Tony Romo is out with a broken bone in his back. Cam Newton missed the last two games, including Monday night's matchup against Tampa Bay, because of a concussion. Carson Palmer missed last week's game against the 49ers. In a quarterback-driven league, the absence of so many well-known passers has an impact.
_3) Reaching the saturation point. There are three broadcast slots on Sundays _ four when a game is played in London. Then there is Monday Night Football. And now Thursday Night Football. Plus, college football dominates Saturdays. That's asking an awful lot for fans to keep up with so many games. The feeling here is that the Thursday night game is most problematic. The one thing that has been so attractive about football is the one-week buildup between games, which creates an anticipation level that fans have been used to for decades. Adding the Thursday night game feels like it's stretching the limits, where many fans are just too overwhelmed with too many games. With the Thursday night package shared among NBC, CBS and the NFL Network, the lack of consistency is challenging. At some point, it's simply too much.
_4) A transition period for emerging star players. The established stars are instant draws for NFL viewers. Brady. Ben Roethlisberger. Eli Manning. Aaron Rodgers. Philip Rivers. Drew Brees. Joe Flacco. What do they all have in common? They're all in their 30s. The up-and-coming stars aren't quite big enough just yet, although it could be a matter of time before players such as Carson Wentz, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota and other promising young players replace the most recognizable names in today's game. People like to watch stars, and there doesn't seem to be quite as many in the current cycle.
_5) Young people don't watch as much television. The ratings hit is also a reflection of the viewing habits of millennials, who simply aren't spending time in front of the television as older adults. That doesn't mean they aren't paying attention to football, it's just that the way they follow the game _ with a big emphasis on digital media _ doesn't register with traditional ratings measurements. Nor does the "Red Zone" channel, which runs highlights and key portions of games and has drawn a wide audience, but is not measured by ratings and may be siphoning off some viewers who would rather not watch an entire game.
A few important factors that are apparently not causing a drop in ratings: in addition to the anthem protests, the various controversies the NFL has experienced in recent years, including the scandals dubbed "Spygate," "Bountygate," and "Deflategate," as well as the spate of domestic violence cases in 2014 and the league's continuing concussion epidemic.
"I don't believe something like 'Bountygate,' where fans might say, 'I'm mad at Roger (Goodell) for penalizing my team and my coach and I'm going to stop watching,' actually happened. Or fans being unhappy with the Brady situation. They're still going to watch. Fan unhappiness with NFL policies or disciplinary action didn't in any way impact ratings."
The same applies to the concussion situation, according to Pilson. Despite the fact fans may be concerned about the health and well-being of current and former players, it's not enough to turn them away from the game. Even if participation rates among young football players declines, it may not be enough to lead to a serious impact on the NFL.
"The NFL is still a warrior sport," he said. "I liken it to the gladiators in ancient Rome. Just because you're not a gladiator doesn't mean you're not interested in seeing the gladiators perform."
Five weeks into the season, and the ratings drop may not end until after Election Day. Still, the NFL remains a healthy entity.
"Nobody's going to be holding (charitable) benefits for NFL owners any time soon," Pilson said. "It remains the overwhelmingly dominant entertainment property, and there's no sign anybody is going to challenge the NFL at any time in the foreseeable future."
