Here are two things to know right out of the gate about the Seahawks and the playoffs:
— A victory or a tie Sunday against Washington, and they would clinch a postseason berth for the eighth time in the past nine years.
— And the NFC West basically all comes down to Dec. 27.
The rest can get complicated. But the first thing shouldn’t be ignored.
Though Seattle coach Pete Carroll sets winning the West as the No. 1 goal every year, making the playoffs any way possible is right there with it. A victory or tie against Washington would mean reaching the postseason in nine of Carroll’s 11 years with the Seahawks, and every season but one since quarterback Russell Wilson arrived in 2012 (they missed the playoffs 2017).
A win or tie this week would assure Seattle of having one of the three best records in the conference aside from division leaders. The Seahawks also could clinch this week if they lose, if the Bears-Vikings game ends in a tie.
Seattle, of course, is in good position to make the playoffs regardless of what happens Sunday, with a 98% chance to do so according to FiveThirtyEight.com.
But clinching with two games to go would be meaningful and helpful.
As for the West, the game Sunday against Washington oddly doesn’t hold a lot of meaning.
The Seahawks and Rams are tied at 9-4, but Los Angeles has one win against Seattle already and officially is in first place. The Seahawks pretty much have to beat the Rams on Dec. 27 to take the division.
That also means that as of today, the Seahawks are the No. 5 seed in the NFC. If the playoffs began today they would have to play the same Washington team they face Sunday in the wild-card round of the playoffs.
FiveThirtyEight.com’s playoff calculator gives the Seahawks only a 2% chance to win the West without beating the Rams (a scenario that would include Los Angeles losing at home to the winless Jets this weekend).
But if the Seahawks beat the Rams, their odds to win the West are 72%, via FiveThirtyEight.com, which go up or down only 6% based on what happens Sunday against Washington.
That’s because a Seattle victory over the Rams would mean it could have a better division record — both are 2-2 — and win that tiebreaker, necessary because the teams would have split the head-to-head.
Simply put, if the Seahawks beat Los Angeles and then San Francisco on the final weekend they would be assured of winning the West regardless of the Washington game. In that scenario, the Seahawks would be assured of at least tying the Rams at 11-5 overall but would have a better division record, which is the first tiebreaker after head-to-head.
When it comes to the division, the only way the Washington game comes into play is if the Rams lose at home to the Jets on Sunday. That would create a scenario in which the Seahawks could lose to the Rams but finish with a better record if it wins its other two games and Los Angeles loses its other two. The Rams finish with a home game against Arizona on Jan. 3.
Because the Seahawks have the early time slot Sunday, they won’t know the result of the Rams game when they kick off at 10 a.m. Seattle time — and I guess everyone has to assume there’s an Any Given Sunday chance that L.A. loses, right?
But the Washington game is meaningful for the remote — but still sort of — chance to claim the NFC’s No. 1 seed. And this year that is the only bye into the divisional round (the addition of a seventh playoff team in each conference this year means only the top seed automatically moves on to the second weekend).
The Seahawks’ defeat against the Giants on Dec. 6 had a disastrous effect on their chances to secure the NFC’s top seed. They had a 21% chance at the top seed entering the Giants game, per FiveThirtyEight.com but just 1% after it.
Those odds rose to 3% Sunday with the combination of a win and a Saints loss. But the bad news was another win by the Packers.
Green Bay and New Orleans are tied for the NFC’s best record at 10-3, but Green Bay has the edge due to a victory over the Saints this season.
But the Saints and Packers also have better conference records than Seattle. Each is 8-2 to Seattle’s 6-3. That means not only does Seattle have to win the West, but then see the Packers and Saints lose another game in the conference to have any chance at the top seed.
Each team has one more AFC opponent — the Saints host the Chiefs this week and Green Bay the Titans next week. A loss obviously doesn’t hurt Seattle’s effort. But what the Seahawks could really use to have any shot at the No. 1 seed is to win out and then have the Packers/Saints lose at least one more conference game. The Saints also host Minnesota and play at Carolina, and the Packers also host Carolina and play at Chicago.
Per FiveThirtyEight.com’s playoff calculator, Seattle’s odds to win the No. 1 NFC seed are 6% if it wins its next two games and Green Bay beats Carolina but loses to Tennessee. But they jump to 23% with two victories and Green Bay loses to Carolina but beats Tennessee.
The odds are similar with the Saints — Seattle would have a 5% shot at the No. 1 seed with two wins and a Saints loss to the Vikings, even if they beat the Chiefs. Those odds increase to 27% with two wins and a reversal of the two Saints results — lose to the Vikings and beat the Chiefs.
But as noted, any positive scenario for Seattle involves beating the Rams next weekend.
So we know what Carroll’s thoughts on any of this would be — concentrate on taking care of business on the field, and worry about the rest later.
