The moment of truth was supposed to arrive this weekned for the Phillies. For months, we looked at the schedule and saw the last 11 games _ seven of them against the Atlanta Braves _ as the defining point that would determine whether the young Phillies would reach the postseason.
We now know we were wrong. General manager Matt Klentak filled the Phillies' tank with veteran power hitters (Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilson Ramos, Justin Bour, and Jose Bautista) just before and just after the July 31 trade deadline, then watched his corps of young starting pitchers (Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta, and Vince Velasquez) run out of gas. That is not the only reason the Phillies went from a 1 {-game lead on Aug. 5 to the 6 {-game deficit after they lost to the Braves on Thursday, 8-3. It's just the primary one.
For all the analytical advances we've seen in baseball during this century, the one thing that still adds up to a lot of wins is outstanding starting pitching. The Phillies' young trio of Eflin, Pivetta, and Velasquez could not provide that this summer, when the games meant the most. Heading into Eflin's start against the Mets, the Phillies' three young starters were a combined 4-11 with a 5.70 ERA since Aug. 5, and the Phillies were 7-15 in their starts.
Add in Jake Arrieta's 4.96 ERA and the team's 2-6 record in the veteran pitcher's last eight starts, and it's easy to understand why this once-promising season got away from the Phillies. Klentak, fully aware that former Phillies Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ were on the trading block, has no regrets and no apologies for his trade-deadline decisions.
"These things, they're never that simple," Klentak said a few days ago. "That's a very binary decision. ... We're always looking for where we can generate the biggest impact. At that moment, we felt like our rotation was in good shape. Look, I know what some of the starters that were traded have done in the month of August and the first part of September. I've seen that. I'm not blind. But I know what our guys have done."
Even though Klentak is aware, we'll still give you the numbers on Hamels and Happ since they were traded. Hamels went into Wednesday night at 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA, but gave up seven runs in a losing effort. But the Cubs are still 7-3 in his 10 starts. Happ is 6-0 with a 2.39 ERA, and the New York Yankees are 8-1 in his nine starts. There's no guarantee either one would have done as well with the Phillies, who can be offensively and defensively challenged.
There is a guarantee, however, that if either one did do as well with the Phillies that the next four games in Atlanta would be a lot more interesting.
It was nice that Eflin delivered a second straight solid start Wednesday night, giving the Phillies five scoreless innings against the Mets. He improved to 11-7, lowered his ERA to 4.09, and the future looks promising for the 24-year-old right-hander. There's also no denying that Eflin, Velasquez, and Pivetta all have quality arms and pitched well at various times of the season. They just did not pitch well at the most crucial point, like Velasquez's Thursday performance, giving up five hits and three runs in three innings of work.
It will take a miracle for the Phillies to be within three games when they host the Braves for the final three games of the season.
Perhaps, but the Phillies will also have another crack at getting Hamels or Happ when they become free agents after this season, and it would be wise if Klentak did not let both of them go elsewhere again.
