Drawing conclusions this early in a British & Irish Lions tour can be dangerous but there is one that can already be made with certainty: the phrase “rugby chaos” must be banished from the tourists’ vocabulary, never to return.
It always had the whiff of a soundbite, dreamt up by an anxious PR team eager to deflect attention from negative “Warrenball” headlines, but with a laborious opening victory now followed by defeat against the weakest of Super Rugby sides the Lions will face, it has backfired with an irony not lost on the caustic New Zealand press.
With four years of preparation Warren Gatland would not have at his disposal players who offload with the instinctive ability of Sonny Bill Williams or who attack with the grace of Rieko Ioane. To even suggest that the Lions will be in a position to take on anyone in New Zealand at their own game is ludicrous. Gatland’s side, particularly the backs, may lack the X-factor he speaks of, but they will not find it trying to mimic their opponents.
Instead the Lions must master what they are best at but Gatland’s greatest problem is that he does not yet know precisely what that is. Limited preparation makes it understandable but still the Lions are playing as if disadvantaged that the cream of the British Isles has been pooled. Whether it becomes an advantage – whether in this day and age that is possible – is the million-dollar question.
For it is not much of a reach to say that each of the four home nations would beat the Blues and four years ago the Lions succeeded largely because Gatland could rely on the spine of his Wales team against a below-par Australia side. It was less a mixture of the four home nations, more the best of the rest bolted on to a team Gatland knew inside out.
Increasingly Steve Hansen’s claim that the Lions would be foolish to attempt to replicate Ireland’s win against the All Blacks in Chicago appears diversionary. New Zealand were beaten that day by a side who got the basics right with unerring accuracy and if that does not sound quite like X-factor, it may be the next best thing for Gatland.
Back to events at Eden Park, though, and the temptation when looking for positives is to highlight Maro Itoje’s enthusiasm, Courtney Lawes’s work rate or Rhys Webb’s command of his forwards but to focus on individuals only underscores Gatland’s problem. In terms of cohesiveness, the scrum and the defensive line speed were encouraging but ill-discipline is more of a worry than those two pluses combined.
The lineout, meanwhile, cannot be considered a success because of the shambolic attempt in the final minute. Hookers can often take too much of the blame for a malfunctioning lineout but Rory Best has previous in this kind of do-or-die situation. He snatched at his throw, missed his man and the Lions were condemned to a morale-draining defeat.
Indeed, it is the final five minutes, after Ihaia West’s dazzling late try, that should be pored over before facing the Crusaders. The Lions rumbled up the middle only for Joe Marler to concede a needless penalty, before Best’s aberration, which again raises the question of why Dylan Hartley is not in New Zealand. He is the best throwing hooker in the northern hemisphere and the Lions are finding out what it feels like when these chances are not taken.
Fortunately for Gatland he has largely kept Owen Farrell under wraps until now and he is the most accurate fly-half at his disposal. But while his shoulders are broad it may be stretching it to pin the Lions’ hopes on his talents already – in both matches the backs have appeared lifeless even beyond the Saracen’s restorative powers. They do not have to offload out of every tackle but they must be sharper than the blunt instrument on show so far.
And they must be clinical – Jared Payne’s first-half try was correctly disallowed but that must be viewed as a missed open goal considering the Lions’ backs did not come close to creating a similar opportunity again. The expectation is that the starting XV against the Crusaders will not be far off that for the first Test but if the Blues match was one the Lions dare not lose then what does that make the trip to Christchurch to face the only undefeated side in this year’s Super Rugby competition?
It is here that Gatland must earn his corn. Months ago he celebrated the fact that the Super Rugby sides would be at full strength and that the Lions would be battle-hardened for the Test series. He continued to push that narrative in defeat but it is all the more difficult when his squad are already being written off as no-hopers. Gatland, however, must keep his nerve and instil an identity into this side that maximises their strengths both in the pack and behind it.
For it was not “chaos” that ensured the Blues won the day. It was clear thinking, trusting a skill-set that has been honed since childhood – relying on their point of difference when the stakes are highest – and the Lions must find a way to do the same. Chaos is the last thing they need.
