Climate-literate blue governors — a mix of incumbents and upstarts — will be taking office around the Midwest and Northeast just as more federal money than ever is available for tackling climate change, pointing to a possible new wave of state-level action.
That’s one outcome of the 2022 midterm elections that took climate activists by surprise, happily.
“Definitely a rosier outcome for Democrats than I was expecting,” said Danielle Deiseroth, lead climate strategist at the progressive think tank Data for Progress. “I am very excited about the potential for just so many state-level climate policies that really build off of what the federal government has done in passing the Inflation Reduction Act,” or IRA, the landmark climate law signed by President Joe Biden in August.
“Certainly it was a surprise. Anyone that says it wasn’t is lying,” said Corey Platt, a Democratic strategist who advises governors, campaigns and climate organizations. “Optimism for climate policy abounds.”
Over the summer, a last-minute deal by Democrats in Congress resulted in the IRA, with a record-setting $370 billion for climate and clean energy spending. This law is expected to help the U.S., the biggest historical emitter of climate pollution, come closer to meeting its goal of halving national greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.
But exactly how effective the new law is will come down, in part, to its implementation by states, including how they spend various discretionary grants tied to building out clean transportation, upgrading building codes and boosting forest conservation.
The widespread expectation going into the Nov. 8 midterms was that there would be a red wave of Republican wins up and down the ballot. No Congressional Republicans voted for the IRA, and many of them have advocated for moving more slowly to reduce emissions while expanding domestic fossil fuel production. But the red wave didn’t happen. While it’s still unknown which party will take control of either the U.S. Senate or the House of Representatives because so many races are not yet decided, the eventual winners will only have the slimmest of majorities.
Meanwhile, the results in a number of high-profile governor races are in, with several wins for Democrats who ran, in part, on growing clean energy jobs and preparing for future warming.
“Climate is not a liability for candidates anymore,” said Deiseroth. Platt took it a step farther, calling it “one of the biggest issue advantages” for Democrats.
Here are the winners that climate advocates are most energized by:
Michigan: Gretchen Whitmer
Whitmer won her second term as governor of the battleground state Michigan, defeating the Donald Trump-backed Republican candidate Tudor Dixon. The more immediate issues of abortion and the economy pushed climate change to the back burner in this race.
In 2020, Whitmer signed an executive order to make the state’s economy carbon neutral by 2050 and cut climate emissions 28% below 2005 levels by 2025. The combination of her win with Democrats taking control of the state legislature has climate advocates hopeful the state will go even further in coming years.
Minnesota: Tim Walz
Walz, of the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, also won re-election in a high-stakes race against Republican contender Scott Jensen. The DFL Party likewise retained control of the state house and flipped the state senate, winning a blue trifecta.
In the weeks leading up to the election, Walz’s administration unveiled a 69-page climate action framework that spells out goals such as boosting funding for non-motorized transportation, expanding regional electric vehicle charging, expanding carbon storage on cropland and other open spaces, expanding funding and staff capacity for climate adaptation and resilience, and much more. “This issue is not going away,” he said at the time. “It needs to be addressed.”
There’s a “real opportunity to move significant climate policy and codify goals” in both Minnesota and Michigan, said Platt.
New Mexico: Michelle Lujan Grisham
Lujan Grisham was re-elected in a contest against Republican Mark Ronchetti. This year, a new rule took effect in New Mexico that seeks to dramatically cut oil and gas emissions. Under Lujan Grisham’s watch, New Mexico has also put in place a strategy for electric grid modernization and pledged to conserve 30% of state land and water by 2030. Post-election, the incumbent governor is traveling to Egypt to attend the international climate conference COP27.
“New Mexico is a state incredibly dependent on oil and gas revenue to meet its budget,” said David Kieve, president of EDF Action, the advocacy partner of the green group Environmental Defense Fund. “If they can take bold action to lead the clean transition to address the climate crisis, anyone can.”
Massachusetts: Maura Healey
Massachusetts’ sitting attorney general, Healey beat out Trump-backed Geoffrey Diehl to be the state’s next governor. As AG, Healey sued oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp. for allegedly misleading investors about the business risk of climate change and deceiving customers about the company’s role in causing the crisis.
She’s already announced her intention to appoint a cabinet-level climate chief and pledged to support the installation of 1 million heat pumps statewide. Healey is the first woman elected governor in the state, as well as the first openly gay woman to win a governor’s race. The current governor, Republican Charlie Baker, signed a major climate law this year that encourages offshore wind development, increases rebates for zero-emission passenger vehicles and more.
Maryland: Wes Moore
Moore beat Republican Dan Cox and will be Maryland’s first Black governor. He ran on a platform that included pushing Maryland to generate 100% clean energy by 2035 and reducing state-level greenhouse gas emissions 60% by 2030. He takes the reins from Republican Larry Hogan, who got mixed marks from environmental advocates (the Maryland chapter of the League of Conservation Voters graded Hogan’s energy policy a B- and his environmental justice efforts a D).
Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro
With Democratic Governor Tom Wolf stepping down, it was unclear whether Democrats would retain the office with the state’s attorney general Josh Shapiro or if it would switch hands to the Republicans’ Douglas Mastriano. In the end, Shapiro persevered. It’s unclear exactly what this will mean for the state’s climate path, as Shapiro has supported what he calls “responsible fracking” and once questioned whether Pennsylvania should be a part of the regional greenhouse gas initiative (RGGI). But his opponent Mastriano was unabashed in his support for more fossil fuels and making it easier to extract them in the state, and wrote an op-ed last year advocating for Pennsylvania to ditch RGGI.
Shapiro’s win is “a really important backstop to making sure the state doesn’t go backwards very quickly” on climate, said EDF Action’s Kieve.
Wisconsin: Tony Evers
Incumbent Evers won a close race against Republican Tim Michels. The Evers administration has taken several steps on climate despite facing Republican majorities in both state legislative chambers, including joining the U.S. Climate Alliance that commits the state to the Paris Agreement goals and creating a new Office of Sustainability and Clean Energy. Coming off the midterms, Republicans appear to have failed to secure a veto-proof supermajority over both chambers.
At the same time as Democrats celebrated this blue streak, Republican incumbent governors with mixed records on climate and clean energy held on to their seats nationwide, from Ohio to Texas to Vermont. Most notable is the decisive reelection victory of Governor Ron DeSantis in Florida, coming on the heels of Hurricane Ian’s devastating strike there. The Arizona and Nevada governor’s races were still undecided as of Friday morning.
“Overall, I think it was a very good night for climate,” said Deiseroth, who anticipates the issue will play a bigger role in the 2024 election cycle after the money from the IRA finally starts making its way to communities.
