In a wide-ranging interview and the first in a two-part series with Newsroom about the future of the pandemic and preparing for the next global health threat, Ashley Bloomfield warns a level of baseline measures must continue around gatherings, scanning, contact tracing and isolation and testing, to help reduce the burden of Covid-19 across the community.
Director-General of Health Ashley Bloomfield sees some public health measures relating to the Covid-19 pandemic remaining in place for three to five years.
"I think some of these things are with us for at least a good period. People say three to five years. No one can see into the future," he told Newsroom during a lengthy interview about the next stage of the pandemic and readying the country for future global health emergencies.
"The question will be, in addition to vaccination - and this will be something for us in New Zealand to be thinking about particularly over the next few years - what are the other measures we will need to have in place to help protect New Zealanders and help protect our healthcare system? That's where I've talked about ... the idea that there will need to be a baseline level of measures.
"I do think that, even wide vaccination as we open our borders will need to be complemented with a level of baseline measures around gatherings, scanning and these sorts of things, and ongoing contact tracing and isolation and testing, to help reduce the burden of Covid-19 across the community. So we're not getting the unnecessary hospitalisations and deaths that might otherwise happen."
Bloomfield had previously told reporters that New Zealand might need to maintain restrictions as the borders open, describing measures as about half an alert level above Level 1.
"It may well be that we need to be more at a [1.5] level, as our baseline, alongside vaccination, as part of the protections we need in place routinely to be able to open the border. We're putting some thinking into that," he had said. This would include more widespread mask use and an end to people serving themselves at restaurants and cafes.
However, in the interview with Newsroom, Bloomfield went further in suggesting that app use would still be widespread and that some restrictions could be in place for years to come. He also said vaccine passports for Covid-19 were likely to become common and could be used as a launchpad for keeping other illnesses out of New Zealand.
"You know, we're going to see requirements, I would imagine, around people being able to verify their vaccination status for Covid-19. That might start to extend," he said.
"We will head down the path of an endemic disease, like influenza. I think most people accept that's the case."
"In the past that's just been yellow fever, hasn't it? But, one might imagine that there will be a high level of awareness of, actually if we are measles-free country, which we are at the moment, we might be requiring other measures at the border that would help prevent measles being reintroduced into New Zealand."
One reason for ongoing restrictions was to reduce the disease burden that Covid-19 might otherwise pose to New Zealand. While the country has pursued an elimination strategy so far, Bloomfield indicated this would have to come to an end for us to open up to the world. Of course, at that stage, enough New Zealanders will be vaccinated that the virus won't be able to threaten to overwhelm the health system. But a global Zero Covid approach - advocated for by New Zealand epidemiologists like Michael Baker and overseas experts - was unlikely, in Bloomfield's view.
"I don't think a global Zero Covid approach is possible, even with the best will in the world. I mean you can see how challenging it is for those countries and jurisdictions that have taken an elimination approach - ourselves and Australia being two examples, but also, in a sense Singapore, Taiwan. Of course, over the last month, we've seen their challenges, and [those in] Fiji and perhaps other Pacific countries," he said.
"If you think about the diseases we have managed to effectively eradicate - smallpox, polio nearly but still not there - it's a huge effort over many years, and they're different sorts of diseases, where this is a very common, highly infectious respiratory virus. We will head down the path of an endemic disease, like influenza. I think most people accept that's the case."
Bloomfield also told Newsroom he had few qualms about vaccine hesitancy reducing our ability to open up to the world. Pointing to the latest regular polling of New Zealanders' attitude towards vaccines, which found 77 percent of eligible Kiwis have either already been vaccinated or were likely to, he said he wasn't concerned about getting most people immunised.
"That group of people who were not sure has got smaller, as has the group of those who were saying, 'I'm not going to'. So, I'm not too worried about getting high levels of acceptance of the vaccine and people being vaccinated," he said.
The vaccine rollout also provided New Zealand with another opportunity to build up health infrastructure that could be recycled for day-to-day use and future health emergencies. Supply chains, logistics expertise and IT infrastructure like the National Immunisation System could all be reused in the future.
This was one of the persistent lessons of the pandemic - the importance of robust and flexible health systems and public health capabilities, Bloomfield said. New Zealand's would only be strengthened by the upcoming health reforms, too.
"[Covid-19 has] been, if anything, a really stark reminder to people that if you don't invest in public health infrastructure and capability and capacity it's at your peril, really. And that was one of the lessons from SARS. And of course we had the swine flu pandemic in 2009," he said.
"I think it's going to remain fresh in people's minds for a while. I'm looking forward to helping rebuild that infrastructure."
Check Newsroom tomorrow morning for the second part of this two-part series.
.jpg?w=600)
