The Irish referendum on the Lisbon treaty is going to be more interesting than many people predicted, it seems.
A poll in today's Irish Times reveals that there has been an 8% drop in support for the legislation since June, with 46% of people now in favour – down from 54%.
That's a big drop as things hot up and, with just four weeks to go, the number who said they would vote against rose by 1% to 29% and the don't knows leapt by 7% to 25%.
Micheál Martin, the Irish foreign affairs minister, sounds worried. "It's going to be a very tight campaign and it will demand all of the resources, conviction, politics and passion of all of those on the yes side," he told the RTE radio station.
A vote against would surely be the end of the treaty, triggering huge crises in the EU with new talk of a two-speed Europe and slowcoaches such as Ireland and the UK being left behind.
It would also be the end of Tony Blair's chances of being the EU's first permanent president, because the job would not exist.
