Kevin Lankinen’s dream season has received a dose of reality over the past month.
The Blackhawks’ breakout rookie goalie watched his numbers crash during the month of April, his performance worn down by a workload he has never handled before.
But his late-season slump shouldn’t ruin the impressiveness of his season overall.
Considering how low expectations were for the Hawks’ goaltending unit in January, Lankinen’s emergence as a goalie with clear long-term No. 1 potential — even if that proposition doesn’t seem quite as certain as it did — remains one of the most heartening outcomes of the Hawks’ 2021 season.
First, however, comes an analysis of his recent downturn. Since the start of April, Lankinen has gone 3-6-1 with an .872 overall save percentage in 11 starts.
Digging deeper in to the numbers — and narrowing it down to solely even-strength data — doesn’t provide a much prettier picture.
Among 64 qualifying goalies around the NHL during that time period, Lankinen ranks 59th in save percentage. He’s dead last, 64th, in Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA), a holistic stat that calculates the difference between a goalie’s actual save percentage and an average goalie’s expected save percentage against the same quantity and quality of shots.
He’s also dead last, 64th, in the difference between actual and expected goals allowed. And he’s 53rd in save percentage against high-danger shots.
“It’s not unexpected with how much he’s played,” Hawks coach Jeremy Colliton said last week. “He’s had some good efforts here sprinkled in, as well. It’s just a tough grind, this league, and a lot of our guys have gone through that. We believe in him and we’ve got to help him through it.”
Colliton has maintained his belief in Lankinen, who turned 26 last week, by playing him constantly.
Lankinen has started 11 of the Hawks’ 14 games since the start of April, including the last three straight. He looked slightly better Thursday and Saturday against the Panthers and made a hefty 72 saves over the two games combined, but still finished with save percentages below .900 — an easy “quality start” dividing line — in both.
“We wanted to give him the opportunity to bounce back,” Colliton said before Lankinen’s Saturday start. “He had a couple games where he didn’t reach his normal level. [Thursday’s] game was a step in the right direction, so it’s a chance to build on that.”
Yet Lankinen’s overall season numbers are still very good, even when including his awful April. Most goalies, after all, endure rough stretches at some point.
He ranks 20th among 64 eligible goalies in even-strength save percentage, 25th in save percentage against high-danger shots and 29th in the difference between actual and expected goals allowed.
Most encouragingly, he ranks 14th in GSAA — above the likes of Anton Khudobin (18th), Jordan Binnington (21st), Tuukka Rask (22nd), Robin Lehner (24th), Carey Price (25th) and Connor Hellebuyck (27th).
And Lankinen has done it despite handling the fifth-most minutes of any goalie and playing behind a subpar Hawks defense prone to poor marking and frequent turnovers.
The average distance of the shots he has faced this season is 32.51 feet, the second-shortest of any goalie (backup Malcolm Subban has faced the sixth-shortest average distance at 33.23). Saturday’s game exemplified that, as four of the five goals Lankinen allowed were scored by Panthers forwards left unguarded in front of or around the net.
Lankinen will almost certainly be the goalie the Hawks protect in this summer’s expansion draft, and he’ll almost certainly enter next season penned into the starting role. Four months ago, the Hawks couldn’t pen — or even pencil — anyone into that.
So Lankinen’s 2021 campaign can be deemed nothing short of a success, even as he falls back to earth down the stretch.
