Last season, Dominik Kubalik ranked fourth in the NHL with 23 five-on-five goals.
Through 11 games this season, however, Kubalik’s five-on-five goal total remains stuck at zero.
His overall goal total has also fallen off a cliff, from 30 down to two right now, and both of those 2021 tallies came on power plays in the same game (Jan. 19 at the Panthers).
For Kubalik to be held out of the net in 10 of 11 Blackhawks games to start the season would’ve been hard to imagine a month ago. Now, it’s the reality.
“I’m still trying to play my game, that’s for sure,” Kubalik said Tuesday. “Sometimes [it’s] working well, sometimes not, sometimes maybe you just need a little bounce, a little luck on your side. You just have to work, or be lucky. That’s my mindset right now.”
Kubalik’s frequent mentions of luck don’t indicate he’s trying to dodge responsibility; it’s simply the truth.
Good luck certainly aided his explosive rookie season — his 19.3% shooting percentage ranked fourth-best in the league, and while Kubalik’s accurate, powerful shot contributed to his high efficiency, not even Connor McDavid (a career 15.1% shooter) could keep up that rate permanently.
Now, the 25-year-old Czech wing’s luck has turned far south. His overall shooting percentage sits at 5.9% overall and (obviously) 0% at five-on-five.
That drought hasn’t been caused by lack of opportunities. Kubalik’s individual shot attempt and scoring chance rates have only slightly declined from 14.9 attempts and 9.5 chances per 60 minutes last season to 13.6 and 8.2, respectively, this season. His shots on goal rate has actually increased from 8.8 to 9.9 per 60.
And on the power play, Kubalik has nearly doubled his per-60 rates in every metric, whether it be shot attempts (26.1 to 48.1) or shots on goal (14.8 to 27.1) or scoring chances (12.6 to 21.1).
But all of those numbers haven’t yet translated to the box scores.
“You want to score as much as possible, right?” he said. “But on the other side, I have to do something different with the puck when the puck is not going in.
“When you think about it too much, it’s always worse. I’m just going to keep going, keep shooting, keep getting around the net and I’m pretty sure things will turn around pretty quick.”
One change he has noticed is opposing defenses paying more attention to and more tightly checking him. Being a Calder Trophy finalist will logically have that effect.
So he has sought to remodel himself as more of a playmaker for now. He sports a tied-for-team-high six assists, including two Tuesday against the Hurricanes, to show for that.
“Especially on the power play, if one guy’s going to be on me, we’re going to take a four-on-three and somebody else is going to be open,” he said. “That’s what you want: Maybe I’ll be open, maybe somebody else, just [need] to make it count.”
And while the Hawks — given their lack of elite-caliber finishers — will definitely need Kubalik to start finding the net eventually, the unpredictable nature of goal-scoring in hockey means the team’s other two Swiss league products have picked up the slack for now.
Pius Suter and Philipp Kurashev boast four goals each and have gotten there via 18.2% and 28.6% shooting percentages, respectively.
Plus, one off-the-charts hot streak — like Kubalik had last January when he scored 10 goals in an eight-game span — could singlehandedly boost Kubalik right to his usual pace at any time.
“It’s a hard league to score in,” coach Jeremy Colliton said Wednesday. “He’s definitely had some chances, including a couple last night. He keeps getting them, but the challenge will be to create more puck possession, create more zone time for him and his linemates. There’s nothing to do but keep working.”
