Black Friday's e-commerce sales rose markedly this year, boosted by AI-powered deal discovery and competitive discounts, despite slower offline foot traffic.
In a note shared Monday, Bank of America Research analyst Justin Post highlighted Adobe Analytics data showing Online sales up 9% year over year on Black Friday and 5% on Thanksgiving.
“Early holiday data indicates Online trends are solid vs expectations, and much better than brick-and-mortar as Online shift continues,” Post wrote.
Adobe reported both results slightly exceeded its initial forecasts and topped its 5% full-season outlook for November and December.
How Much Did AI Help Sales?
AI chatbots were the star players this Black Friday. Adobe estimates that AI-related traffic surged 805% year over year. New tools like Amazon's Rufus and ChatGPT helped consumers find the best prices.
Reuters said this AI-powered surge helped shoppers bypass crowded stores. AI is a “driving force for sales,” according to a Bankinter analysis team.
Still, other data showed a mixed picture. Salesforce, which tracks digital spending including groceries, saw U.S. online sales climb just 3% on Black Friday. This is slower than the 7% growth the firm saw last year. Mastercard SpendingPulse, however, showed a robust 10.4% e-commerce jump.
The early data is “constructive for the eCommerce group,” Bank of America says. The bank highlighted two top picks.
Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is well-positioned to capture share through its AI integration with Rufus. It also has strong price comparability and faster delivery speeds.
Wayfair Inc. (NYSE:W) is also a top pick. The company is accelerating share gains with improvements in its CastleGate fulfillment and Loyalty Program.
Did Discounts Actually Match Last Year?
Adobe estimated discounts in the 19% to 30% range, roughly the same as in 2024. The steepest discounts were found in toys, electronics and apparel.
However, a Reuters report suggested that discounts may not feel as sharp as last year due to higher product costs driven by inflation and tariffs.
Salesforce data backs this up. Average selling prices increased 7% year over year on Black Friday. Order volumes, however, dropped 1%. The number of items per transaction fell 2%.
Bank of America’s view suggests “modest tariff-related pressure on gross margins” is expected.
Among specialty retailers, Bath & Body Works Inc. (NYSE:BBWI), American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE:AEO) and Old Navy offered slightly higher or consistent discounts versus last year. However, global brands like Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE:RL) and Polo Factory reduced promotional activity.
Are Shoppers Still Going To Physical Stores?
Not really. In-store foot traffic continued its slide. RetailNext data showed a 3.6% year-over-year drop in foot traffic on Black Friday. This follows a 3.2% decline last year.
Mastercard SpendingPulse data was more optimistic for physical stores. It saw offline sales up 2% from last year's 1% growth.
Bank of America analyst Lorraine Hutchinson stated that “tariff-induced price increases were introduced by many retailers.”
“Significant uncertainty remains about the consumers’ ability to absorb these higher prices, but Santa always comes,” she added.
AI-Driven Retail Marks a Structural Shift
The early Black Friday results show that while growth is slowing, digital shopping continues to outpace brick-and-mortar and is being reshaped by AI adoption.
As tariff-induced price increases challenge retailers, the ability to surface value through technology is becoming a key differentiator.
The battle for holiday dollars is far from over—but the online channel is clearly winning the war for convenience, personalization and price transparency.
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